Super Deep Sleepers For Your Watchlist

History has shown us that there are some significant points sitting on your waiver wire right now.  Players that noone has thought of drafting will find opportunity and surprise us.  This list of players is not worth grabbing in the draft.  Noone will take them.  However they are why watch lists were invented.  If you start to see some production, don't be afraid to spend your Faab money on these five players:

Terrance Williams
WR, Dallas Cowboys

We've seen some pretty significant numbers from the Dallas #3 receiver in the Romo/Garret era.  Williams is a rookie, and I hate rookie WR's, but the opportunity is there for him to take.  Williams is not super fast (4.52 40 time) but he's very qucik, and at 6'2", 208 this big target could take advantage of the attention paid to Bryant/Austin/Witten.

Kenjon Barner
RB, Carolina Panthers

Here's what we know....DeAngelo Williams can't carry the load.  We know that from the last time Stewart got hurt.  And the time before that.  And the time before that.  You see what I'm getting at.  Sooner or later, Barner will get the Lions share of the carries.

Barner has great hands, ran a 4.4 at the combine, and has shown great quickness.  He's on the small side at 5'9", but it's not like Williams is much bigger, so he shouldn't lose snaps in short yardage.  I expect him to make a home for himself here in Carolina within the first three weeks of the season, and have a Marion Barber circa 2007 stat line.

Stephen Williams

Full disclosure....this is the second time I've tabbed Stephen Williams as a deep sleeper.  He also sustained a concussion in his final preseason game.  But.....he's locked up the #4 spot on Seattle's depth chart by leading the team in receiving yards this preseason.  http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6064/stephen-Williams

Williams is big, fast, and handsy.  He's was a pre-season hero for a few years with Arizona, but never with a decent QB, and always ends up buried on the depth chart due to an injury in the final pre-season game.  He's not a GREAT route-runner, but Wilson is the kind of QB that buys time and looks for the matchup.  Once Sidney Rice goes down, he finds his way on the field in the slot, and he's just a huge endzone target.  Keep your eye on him.


Brian Quick:
WR, St. Louis Rams

Everyone loved this kid last year, but I think it was more about not really having enough information to properly grade him.  Now we have that information.  And that information says he's having issues adjusting to the NFL game.

That said, he caught 5 passes on 6 targets for 60 yards in the final preseason game.  Yes it's a meaningless game, but it allowed Quick to remind the Rams that he's a very big, very athletic jump up and grab it wide receiver that's perfect in the endzone.  I'm thinking Chris Chambers rookie season may be the type of player we're looking at.

Kenny Stills;
WR, NO

I think the Saints are back this year, behind their prototypically huge offense.  But to do that they need some surprises. That surprise will be Kenny Stills.

Stills will be a prototypical Saints player with sporadic success, but still makes for a great bye-week fill in as he amasses 700 yards, 6 TD's over the season.


 

2013-2014 Football Surprise Predictions

I found this old thread this morning, read through my previous seasons predictions, and realized that I'm damn good at this.  So I'm feeling inspired to share with you my thoughts on the 2013-2014 football season.

Your drafts are done, and your belief (or lack there-of) in your actual real life team has been confirmed by popular media.  We have established the 2013 pre-season "conventional wisdom."  For example, it's "conventional wisdom" that there are only a handful of high scoring RB's this year.  It's "conventional wisdom" that Denver will likely represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

However, there are a great many things that look great on paper, that just don't translate in the execution.  So with the last remaining days of drafting, trading, and calling into your local radio stations before the season starts still upon us, I give you 15 "against the grain" predictions.

Prediction #1:  A small amount of quarterbacks will be very important to the fantasy season.

Last year was the year of the quarterback.  We had four rookie breakouts, Peyton Manning re-established himself, and Matt Ryan proved he belongs in the top half of the Fantasy league.  Looking at it this year, it appears that there is only room for growth at the position as Big Ben should be around for a full season, Jay Cutler has a new offense, and more will be asked out of Joe Flacco.

Stop.  Stop with this thinking.  This is the wrong thinking. 

You are correct in your assessment that there will be several QB's that can provide solid support for your team.  The class is deep enough that you may even be able to put a superb carousel of names like Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Vick.  But don't do it.  Don't buy into it.

There will be four quarterbacks in the 2013-2014 that far exceed the rest of the class.  Four.  Maybe five, but probably four.  The division between these four and the rest of the group will be big enough to make or break a season.  Think of those years where the Manning/Brady/Brees contingent ruled football.  You went high on them the next year and....Bam....Big Ben throws for 38 TD's and Favre regains his youth.  So the next year you sit back on QB and....bam...Philip Rivers sucks.

This is that other year.  This is the year that the league defenses catch up with the pistol.  This is the year that Russell Wilson misses 6 games.  Kapernick loses the team.  Flacco goes back to being normal. 

Stick with the QB's that are in spread/Coryell offenses that have good WR's, better O-lines, and a running game that can be a threat.  Target them.  Hard.  You don't have to go 3 rounds overboard, but going a round early will pay big dividends.


Prediction #2:  Tony Romo will be the best QB in Fantasy.

Romo may be the most under drafted player in all of fantasy football.  Romo is currently being picked around the 11th QB in the league.  11th.  On average he's going in ROUND 7!!!!!  Wow.  Steal. 

Romo was the 7th best QB in standard scoring leagues last year.  That's one of his worst fully healthy years to date.  Part of that is his 19 INT's.  Part of that is his lowest TD % numbers ever.  Part of that is the explosion of talent at the position.  But all of these reasons are outliers.  As much as he is unlikely to match his 2007 career best, (before Garret) he likely won't match his 2012 career worst.

Tony's offensive line is better, he has a new playcaller that once made Rich Gannon a top 3 QB option.....let me repeat that....MADE RICH GANNON A TOP 3 QB OPTION...and has more TE options, and a ready-to-have-his-best-year-ever Dez Bryant.

Stat line:  4700 yards, 29 TD's, 12 INT's, #4 overall Fantasy QB, and best damn value on the board.

Prediction #3:  The 2013 "We all think they will be horrible, but they will actually make the playoffs" team is:  The Buffalo Bills.

Here's How:  EJ Manuel is back in week 2.  He is a solid fit for the up-tempo-but-run-first offense deployed by new coach Doug Marrone.  In this offense Spiller gets more Spillery.  Graham and Woods allow Steve Johnson to go inside/over the middle where he will excel.  (Think last years Reggie Wayne.)  The hybrid-style high pressure defense (think 2010 Saints) ramps up it's ability to create turnovers, having that peak defensive season.

The Bills normally start hot.  I don't expect that this year.  I expect them to start 1-3.  MAYBE 2-2.  But then I expect them to be 4-4.  Then maybe we see 7-5.  And we finish 10-6, with a playoff spot.  This all leads me to....

Prediction #4:  CJ Spiller will lead all players in yards from the line of scrimmage.

Don't give me that crap about his size.  His offensive system is geared up for it.  His offensive line coach is one of the best in the business.  He'll see more check downs than Emmit Smith in his entire career.  He's fast.  He's agile.  He's explosive.  And he's the next Priest Holmes/Marshall Faulk/LaDanian Tomlinson.

Prediction #5:  Doug Martin will be a bust.

Listen closely:  Tampa...never...has...anyone...repeat...a good...year.  Ever.


Prediction #6:  You'll wish you went a round higher on David Wilson.

Forget last year.  He was just one of those guys that needed to take his rookie lumps.  He'll be leaned on heavily, he's fast, he's big, he's perfect for the NYG style of play, and he'll stay in at the goal line.  Targeting him as your #2 back allows you to get a #1 WR earlier.  Make him part of your game plan.

Prediction #7:  This is Stephen Williams (WR you've never heard fo...not AZ running back) year.

For those of you that have read my annual predictions or deep sleepers columns, you know I love Stephen Williams.  He's 6'6".  He has great hands.  He makes incredible plays.  He's crazy fast.

And he's always hurt.  And he can't run routes for shit.

Basically he's Danario Alexander before he went to San Diego.  Talented, dumb, and takes longer to learn his lesson.  Well...Williams has left Arizona.  He's paired up with Carrol who is really good at coaching dumb receivers.  And....he's lead all Seattle receivers this preseason with 187 yards on 6...on only 6 catches.  This is his year.

Prediction #8:  Denver won't win it's Division.

WHAT!  THAT IS ABSURD!  DID THEY CHANGE DIVISIONS?!?!?!?!?!?!

Look...I know they are good on paper.  I know they have Manning.  I know the division sucks.  But here's what bothers me:

1)  With 1 suspension, and 1 season ending injury, you just lost 1/2 your total sacks from last year for the first 6 seasons at the game.  (At minimum.)  That's a ton to give up.

2)  Wes Welker is being really weird.  He's still talking about the difference between Tom and Peyton.  Which means he's thinking a lot about that difference.  Which to me says....I haven't adjusted to that difference.  Stay away from him this year....he's not in for a great season.

3)  Congratulations Demaryius Thomas!  You stayed healthy pretty much all season! 

That will never happen again.

4)  Peyton Manning is all healed forever, and not losing a step at 37.  Hell...he's STRONGER than he was last year!!!

Sure.  If you say so.

See where I'm going here?  Sometimes everything clicks for a team, and they collectively have a "career year."  I think that's what happened for Denver last year, and I don't think they will repeat it.


Prediction #9:  Brady misses significant time this year.

His strength was in his hair that his wife made him grow.  That's now gone.  He's done.

Seriously though....the O-line does more work on the run side which tires them out a little more...they miss a few more defenders...there's no Welker or stud TE to chuck it to quickly....

As much as I like Edelman and Amendola, I don't think they are enough to keep Mr. Brady healthy in 2013.  Sorry Pats fans...this is Buffalo's year.

Prediction #10:  Sean Payton hits Belicheckian status.

Last year the Saints kinda sucked.  That won't happen again.  I love, love, love, love Atlanta, but....this is New Orleans division.  This is Sean Payton's division. He is going to remind you why, and when he does there will be "best in the game" whispers.

Prediction #11:  The NFC West gets stood on it's head.

Oh my lord I'm sick of hearing about Carson Palmer.  He is not your answer Cardinal fans.  He is now an average Quarterback without the big arm he left college with with a 1.2:1 TD:INT ratio learning another new system.

But he's got Fitzgerald.  And his O-line is healthy.  And better.  And the defense has some nice additions, and...for that matter....subtractions as they get younger and faster at Safety.

So the Cards will be better.  And when Bradford, Richardson,  and that St. Louis defense find their rhythm in game 3, they will be better.  In fact...they will win the division.

And when Kapernick regresses, (Boldin is not Crabtree) and Lynch loses a step after last years workload....those teams get worse.

So overall, The NFC West goes St. Louis, Arizona, Seattle, and San Fran with only St. Louis making it to the playoffs.

Prediction #12:  Baltimore misses the playoffs.

Here's what the experts are saying:  It's addition by subtraction!  No really...they may be even better!

Here's what I'm saying:  It's subtraction.  Just subtraction.  It's subtracting two of the top 10 all time defensive players.  It's subtracting a reliable threat in the middle.  It's subtracting from that offensive line. It's subtracting the last of the Marvin Lewis mindset.  I don't care how much faster you are...when you subtract all of that...you subtract wins.

Prediction #13:  Chicago Takes the NFC Central.

Trestman and Kromer win the division in their first year.  Because they are both very, very, very good at coaching offense.  There is real SuperBowl potential here.

Beyond the system, there's a drastically improved O-line.  Whenever I see improved O-line, I know you can expect an improved record.  Draft your Bears early.  They'll pay off.

Prediction #14:  RGIII goes bust-ish. 

Somebody shut this guy up.  Seriously.  If you want to be a great QB, you need to be a great leader.  Ask Brady how much he spoke about his injury comeback.  Or Peyton Manning.  Or Drew Brees.  Shut up.  Shut up, shut up, shut up.

Oh...and the rest of the NFL figures out the pistol and reigns him in.  And he's not as mobile as he was on that new leg.  He won't be a TERRIBLE QB, but he'll take a couple steps back from 2012.

Prediction #15:  Jason Garret keeps his job.

First of all, let's make this clear......Jerry Jones really, really, really does not want to fire Garret.

Jerry Jones wants to be the guy that saw something in him as a player and groomed him from backup QB, to offensive coordinator, to head coach.  He's invested a couple of losing seasons in Garret.  Not because he's so sure that Garret WILL succeed, but because his own ego NEEDS Garret to succeed.

That said......

I think Garret has the staff around him now, and enough experience to take that step forward.  I don't think he's Norv Turner.  I think he has more than that, and this year he proves it by going 10-6 and making the playoffs.  I think it can work in Dallas, and while they won't win the Superbowl...the playoffs aren't out of the question, and the playoffs are enough to keep Garret on this team.

 

Fantasty Football Outlook: 15 Things You Need to Know About the NFC South

So...my previous posts were an attempt to start going team by team.  But...I ain't got that kind of time.  So here's 20 things you need to know about the NFC South

1)  Mark Ingram?  Mike Turner?  DeAngelo Williams?  All good.  The best Fantasy Running Back in the AFC South?  LeGarrette Blount.  The added pass rushers to an already decent defense means they won't miss Talib as much as you'de think.  This is a team built for turnovers, which means plenty of clock decimating short yardage play calling...perfect for a chain moving RB like Blount.  Add in a young offensive line that should make strides, and you have an incredible value late in round 2, early in round 3.  You could do much worse for your #2 back.

2)  I personally think there is something about the New Orleans home field conditions that make it impossible for running backs to stay healthy.  Remember....the guy that replaces Darren Sproles production when he gets hurt isn't Ingram, Ivory, or Thomas.  It's Lance Moore. 

3)  42 passes in a pre-season game?  42?  Okay...forget what I said about Atlanta previously.  A new offensive philosophy, a new deep threat, and a dome friendly schedule means Matt Ryan should officially be no lower than #9 on your draft board...maybe as high as #7. 

4)  I can't think of a more overrated fantasy QB than Josh Freeman right now.  I know it's pre-season, be he's done nothing to show that he's progressed from last year.  Look at 2010's schedule.  Cake.  Look at 2011's.  Not cake.  He finishes in the bottom half of all QB's.

5)  Speaking of last years schedule....take a quick look at Mike Williams game log.  Over 60 yards agains Cincy, St. Louis, Carolina, Detroit and Atlanta.  So...basically, if you take out Atlanta, he sucked against good teams.  Plus I expect Tampa to throw LESS this year.  I'm not expecting a repeat of 2010, and for where he's being drafted, you should take a pass.

6)  I'm flip-flopping on Turner.  The second best RB in the South for Fantasy purposes will be Jason Snelling.  Take him late, and just wait for week 4.

7)  You tell me when Devery Henderson will have a big game.  Seriously.  He never has trade value because his big games are too unpredictable, even when Colston takes his obligatory 3 weeks off with whatever injury will plague him in 2011.  You can't trust him for spot starts.  If you draft him, you are starting him for 13 games, and hoping 6 of them pay off big before you finally cut him out of frustration.  I'd rather have Julio Jones at the same draft position.

8)  3 guys to target in round 13-16:  Jason Snelling, Greg Olsen, Arelious Benn.  Don't give me this Briscoe crap.  Benn is too high a draft pick with too much potential to be usurped for a full 2010.  He's 6'2", and his speed is a much better compliment to Williams than the slower/handsy Briscoe.

9)  I know for the past two seasons we've looked at Steve Smith, and said:  "someone has to catch the ball right?"  The answer for the last two seasons has been:  No.  Noone in Carolina has to catch the ball.  However, Smith has dropped considerably in the draft.  Do I expect 2008 numbers?  No.  But I don't think it will be 2011 either.  As your sifting through the injury risk round 5/6 WR's in your draft because you went QB early....don't forget his name.

10)  Anyone that thinks Cam Newton may run enough to be valuable in his rookie season, please take a look at Vince Young's rookie year.  Newton is not Vick.  The only person that is Vick, is Vick.  And maybe Randall Cunningham.  Who..coincidentally may be better today than Newton.

11)  Speaking of Newton...it's worth noting that D. Anderson has moved to #2 on the depth chart.  Don't draft him...but it's worth noting.  Especially when considering the aforementioned Steve Smith.  (It's good for Smith. Trust me.)

12)  Tony Gonzalez is done as a starting fantasy TE.  I know they will pass more.  It won't be to him.

13)  Harry Douglas may be this years Lance Moore.

14)  I'm shying away from D'Angelo Williams.  The whole NFC South has a very dome heavy schedule.  That makes for a ton of RB injuries.  I still love Blount because of the lack of tread on those tires and a clear #1 role....but I'm shaky on any other starting RB's.

15)  Don't draft J. Stewart.  He's still going as a #3 RB...which is too high.  But make sure to get him in a trade package later.  He's actually healthy, and he'll have some GIANT games this year, and the wisdom of resigning Williams will be heavily questioned.

Fantasy Football 2011: New Orleans Saints Fantasy Team Notes

The New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Futures:

Variety of Trove:  Treasure.  Kinda.

Did the Saints just sign Orlin Kreutz?  Seriously?  Could that line get any better?  Would it be possible to draft 5 or 6 Saints to dominate my fantasy league?

Maybe the better question is....do you want to?

The Saints are built to be an offensive machine.  They are who we look to when we can't make our own decision.  Flyer on a WR?  Lance Moore looks good.  Maybe Devery Henderson.  Strong #2 WR?  Marques Colston.  Or wait....is he a #1?  Or...isn't he a breakout candidate?  Or isn't every Saint a breakout candidate every year?  The fact is, we often look to the Saints as being full of fantasy treasure.  But quick question:  Name one player outside of Colston to gain more than 1000 yards.  Give up?  Deuce McCallister.

In 2006. 

That's a looooooong time for a team with such a great offense to go without producing anyone that could be referred to as a "Fantasy Stud."  Last year everyone had Pierre Thomas on their radar.  The year before?  Lance Moore.  Before that it was Reggie Bush.  Even Colston has only hit double digit TD's once in his career.  (11 in 2007.)  The other double digit TD man?  Moore had 10 in 2008.  There's hasn't been a RB with more than 9 TD's or 800 yards rushing in New Orleans since they dropped the Deuce in '06.

You can blame the system all you want.  Again...the Saints are built to be an offensive machine.  It is very true that Sean Payton loves to spread the love around.  But here's my theory:  That dome sucks.  Noone can stay healthy.  Even Colston has had issues staying healthy.  Hell.....if he was at full strength for 45 of the last 48 games, we could be talking about the future Hall of Famer as opposed to the most proficient cog in the Sean Payton Wheel.  So if you ask me if Pierre Thomas, or Ingram, or Ivory, or Henderson, or Moore, or Colston, or Sproles, are good draft picks, I will say "Yes.  They are Saints, and they play most of their games indoors this year, so the games they play in, they will excel in."  But if you ask me if any of them will play more than 13 games... I will say no.  They play most of their games indoors this year....so most will not play in more than 12 games.

The Saints are built to be an offensive machine:  one that offers you no more than a host of flex players.  Choose wisely.

Fantasy Player Notes

• Drew Brees will outscore Aaron Rodgers.  
• Sean Payton's version of the Coryell offense is easily one of the more successful bastardizations of it to hit a football field.  But it lives and dies with Drew Brees.  I've read a few articles about how "The NFL caught up with Payton's scheme last year."  That's crap.  Nobody caught up with that offense.  A decrease in defensive turnovers lead to a shorter average time of possession.  Combine that with a small injury here and there, and Brees just had a bit of a numbers correction, and still finished 6th in scoring for QBs.  Will the Saints run more?  Sure...but Brees will be on the edge of the elites again...right in front of Aaron Rodgers.

• Mark Ingram is the largest beneficiary of a more "run heavy" mentality, but is still a flex back.
• Payton has realized that when his defense isn't playing like a SuperBowl caliber turnover machine...you need something more to kill a clock than 5 yard dumps to Moore.  It might also be helpful to make a safety play within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage.  Hence....Mark Ingram.  
• Ingram is the only RB worth drafting as he'll be used to set up the pass, and run out the clock.  He'll likely have 6 or so very big games over the course of the year, mixed in with some garbage.  If you do draft him....you better handcuff with Thomas, or you'll be looking for a new #2 back come week 7
• Thomas will absolutely play.  He'll vulture a few TD's, and gain some yards here and there.  But think of him this way:  He'll split carries with Ingram in a "Marion Barber/Julius Jones" way.  Ingram is the Marion Barber, while Thomas is the Julius Jones.  Now.....throw Sproles for receiving situations.  Sucks don't it.

• Draft Colston as a low #1 WR.  Don't take any other NO receivers.
• Colston will only get 1000 yards and 8 TD's this year.  That said...those numbers will be enough to be within the top 12 of your league for WR's.  
• Henderson/Moore/et. all will still light it up for 5 games each.  You  don't draft guys for 5 games.  Especially when you don't know when they will show up.

• Jimmy Graham will go 700/4.
• There is no precedent for TE's in Payton's scheme.  Jimmy Graham is hyper talented, and you know of his 300 yards and 5 TD's in the last 4 games of the season.  But let me ask you what's more likely:  that after a host of RB injuries, they started using their TE in an unprecedented fashion, and his numbers will go back to normal over the course of a full season.....OR.....that pace will continue making him the first TE ever to break 20 TD's in a season. Honestly....I think that having Sproles there will hurt his value as well.  700/4 is nothing to sneeze at, but maybe not what you were hoping for.

Fantasy Football 2011: Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Team Notes

Is there any kind of trove that isn't treasure, or does treasure have that shit on lockdown?

I ask because every year entire teams can come out of nowhere to provide a trove....treasure or shit... of fantasy players. Nobody saw Bruce/Holt/Warner as round 1 picks in 2002, and noone expected Brady to throw 50 TD's in 2007, making Wes Welker and Ben Watson relevant.  In 2010 we found reason to pick up players from the Tampa Bay offensive unit not named Cadillac, and grabbed everyone we could find from Philly.  (C'mon....don't act like you knew....I got McCoy in round 3 in most leagues, Maclin off waivers, and noone drafted Vick.)  Conversely, the shit trove known as the Dallas Cowboys gave us the top rated TE, and a pile of flex players that couldn't stay healthy.

Parody is one of the great assets of the NFL.  As coordinators and free agents find new homes, philosophies change and talent develops, your 4-12 team can be relevant come playoff time.

Over this shortened off-season, 23 coordinators switched positions.  We've just had a free-agent frenzy.  Predicting your fantasy draft based on 2010 numbers is about as accurate and effective as a Tim Tebow defensive read.  (Meaning not at all accurate, or effective.)  So let's take this opportunity to break down the NFL conference by conference, look at the changes teams have made, and find some troves. The dart I threw dictates that we will start with the.......


2011 NFC South Fantasy Football Team Analysis:

The NFC South is a very intriguing division.  Home of traditional fantasy powerhouse New Orleans, this division also gives us a run based team with a new Head Coach and QB, the developing Freeman/Blount/Williams triplets, and an Atlanta team that has given us a 100+ reception WR....that promises to put MORE emphasis on the pass.

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Futures:

Variety of Trove:  Treasure

Where to begin with the Falcons.  Hmmm...how about here:  The Atlanta Falcons are going to the Superbowl.  I know I said the same thing last year, but this year I'm actually more positive of this.  Okay...now that I've said that:

Be very, very careful in how you draft Falcons players.  You may have spent the past week preparing for your fantasy drafts, and hearing all about how the Falcons will pass more, and bumping Matt Ryan into the first or second tier of QB's, tabbing Roddy White as a first round pick, and seriously considering drafting Julio Jones over the Bryants, Maclins, and Welkers of the world.

Don't do it.  The Falcons will not pass that much more.  Let me repeat....the Falcons will not pass that much more.  Ask Mike Mularkey:  http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2011/08/03/qa-mike-mularkey-discusses-plans-for-the-offense/  I know the established #1, talented rookie WR combo smacks of a 1998 Minnesota Vikings team........but it's not built that way.

The Falcons will pass further.  They will go deep.  They will attempt to create big plays.  But further does not equal more.  Further equals further.

This is still a Mike Mularkey offense.  He is an amazing offensive coordinator, but his bread and butter is the run.  Look at his Pittsburgh/Buffallo/Miami history.  Now....he has an incredible knack for using players unique skill sets to make big plays.  But...think Hines Ward/Randel El, or Eric Moulds bad year/Lee Evans good year....not exactly Moss and Carter.

Lastly...take a look at the schedule.  Overall.....it's not a bad schedule.  (No schedule that includes the Panthers twice is.)  It could very easily be 14 wins.  However....the passing schedule?  It's kind of brutal.  Squaring off against the NFC North, and the AFC South, with Philly sprinkled in for good measure, It's chock-fulla defenses that feature pass rushers and elite cornerbacks, and offenses that...well....you're not really going to outgun.  But you can run on them.  Oh...you can run on them.  Atlanta opponents combined gave up the highest amount of rushing yards in 2010.  That bodes well for the run.  And so....

• Downgrade Roddey White into Round 3-4:
• I know you think I'm nuts...and he's still a top 10 WR...but he's not the 2010 Roddy White.  He'll be the incredibly frustrating, small game/big game Greg Jennings-ish WR of 2009.  Julio is a much better option than Jenkins was, and will be sharing the downfield duties out of the Z that White commanded from the split-end spot.  White will be good, but he won't have 100+ catches again, or the consistent yards that come with it.  If you're taking a WR late round 1/early round 2, don't let it be White.  He won't pay in that spot.

• Jump all over Michael Turner at the end of Round 1:
• I know I'm stating the obvious, but the fact is I'm seeing Turner slip into round 2, as options like McFadden and Gore are getting picked up before him.  As MJD proves healthy, Rashad Mendenhall gets more press, and news of an improved Atlanta passing attack has spread, Turner's ADP has dropped to 10 for RB's.  That's crap.  He's still a fantasy anchor, and has a better schedule than the rest of the backs in his tier.  Once the "big 5" backs are gone....turn your attention his way.

• Take Jason Snelling over Jacquizz Rodgers:
• That is to say, take a good, hard look at him by the end of the draft.  IF Turner goes down...he will be the most valuable property on the wire, with a cake schedule, and 3 down ability.  Ignore JacqJizz....he's not grasping the offense, and he's showing that this preseason.  There's a reason the Falcons went back after Snelling in mid-August....and that's because JacqJizz isn't cutting it.

• Don't over hype Julio Jones:
• Is he the real deal?  Yes.  But he's not Randy Moss either.  Don't crank your expectations too high...but he will have some big games.  You will just have to take some bad along with them.  Don't overdraft him, but if he's there in round 7....not a bad deal.

• Tony Gonzalez is becoming an afterthought:
• There's a reason they cut Peele, and kept Kelley as a backup TE.  They need blockers.  They will use the TE's to block more than ever in order to set up big plays and reverses.  While Gonzalez is the unquestioned starter, his receiving numbers may dip into the 400 range as he drops into protection more frequently.

• Harry Douglas is fast:
• I've always loved this guy.  He's a quick, small little slot back with big play potential.  You should not draft him.  But you should keep an eye on him.  He may be the Randel El in this offensive unit.

• Matt Ryan is still...well....Matt Ryan.
• Matt Ryan is a very solid QB.  Would I want him as a backup?  Yes.  But there is very little reason to think that he's going to be much better than his 3700 yard 28/9 performance of 2010.  That makes him a very low #1, high #2 QB.  Keep Rothlesburger and Schaub in front of him on your draft list.
  

Fantasy Football 2011: The Forgotten Sleepers

Just when you think there's no way Alex Gordon will fill his potential, he finally has a 20 HR, 40 Double, .285 season.  And so it is with sleepers.

But that's baseball.  Football is a different story.  You pretty much get one shot.  You make that roster....or you don't.  You're a first time starting RB once.  You're a 3rd year starting WR once.  Nobody gives a shit if your 27, 28, whatever.

You are in...or you are out.

Except when you're not.

In 2010, there were several sleepers that we reached and pulled for....we hoped they would fall to us.  We chuckled to ourselves at the thought of being able to trade our 3rd round pick because we had an 11th rounder that was going to take that slot.  We laughed at the foolishness of those around us for not recognizing our genius!

And then they sucked.  And now they are forever gone.  Nothing but a mere whisper lost in the winds of the almost was and never will be.

But then a guy like Matt Schaub chucks the rock for 4700 yards a year after he was supposed to, or Cedric Benson becomes a yardage horse 3 years after he was supposed to be relevant, and you're like....oh yeah.  That guy.  Damn...shoulda drafted him.

And with that, I bring you the fantasy sleeper darlings of 2010 that DIDN'T pan out, and some reason not to forget them in 2011.

Devin Aromashoda, WR
I think I forgot a "u" in that name somewhere, but damned if I know where to put it.  Remember this Bears WR?  The one that finished very strong in 2009?  The 6'2" 210 lb. beast of a man that is sneaky fast, and crazy explosive?  The one that was supposed to step right into a Mike Martz offense and be off the charts good?

He finished 2010 with 10 receptions for 149 yards and 0 TD's.  So.....he sucks.

But will he continue to suck?  Well....he's in Minny now which promises to be a run first offense under Musgrave, so that doesn't give you alot of hope.  That said:

The guys ahead of him on the depth chart are Percy Harvin (good but migraine prone), Bernard Berrian (not good and injury prone), and Mike Jenkins (Not good, and slow, and now old so you wish he would just get an injury and clear the way for someone that was better, or at least faster.)  The ONLY reason Jenkins is ahead of him is because he already knows the Musgrave system.

So when you think about it.....Aromashoda is an injury away from taking his considerable explosiveness onto speed enhancing dome grass with a Strong Arm QB that is desperate to find a play-maker, and keeping that spot.  That makes him worth looking at.

Donnie Avery/Laurent Robinson, WR;
In 2010, people looked at Robinson's excellent rookie production, and the speedy Avery walking into the third year, and shouted from the rooftops.....Meh...it's still the Rams.  But we all agreed that someone had to catch the ball, and it was likely that someone was going to break 900 yards and 6 TD's, and we put our money on the fact that it would be one of these two.  Not Danny Amendola.  Who...really didn't do that anyway, he was just the guy that...well...stayed healthy.
 
In my first draft of 2011 I waited until round 9 to take a QB.  I took Sam Bradford.  I've taken some heat for that, and if I write too much about him, I'll jinx myself.  So...I'll just say this:

What do Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, and Brandon Lloyd have in common?  They all were 1000 yard receivers in a Josh McDaniel Offense.  Two of which were lead by Kyle Orton.  They all also were split ends in that offense, which tend to be the focal point for Mr. McDaniels as the deep ball is a large part of a very aggressive, but balanced attack. 

So who is the split end this year?  Well....we...um....we don't know.  We know that Michael Sims-Walker is the Flanker.  We know that Danny Amendola is probably the slot WR.  But....split end could be Donario Alexander, Donnie Avery, Laurent Robinson, Bob Gibson....or a host of others.  In fact...Avery and Alexander are both hurt right now.

But Avery just has a strained hammy.  Nothing big.  And he also has 4.28/40 speed.  That's fast.  That's really, really fast.  Laurent's injuries are a little more severe....so you can almost count him out.  For now.  Keep an eye on that battle.

Jacoby Jones, WR;
Going into his 3rd year in a position battle with a smaller, slower, and caucasioner Kevin Walters, there was an assumption that a significant amount of Schaub's predicted 4500 passing yards would be going Jones' way.  They didn't.  Houston found out that they could run....like...really, really well, and Walters showed that he had Hobbit like heart and fortitude to go along with that short stature, and held on to that #2 job.  Jones finished with 500 yards and 3 TD's.

In 2011 we've completely forgotten Jones.  For that matter, we've forgotten Walters, and he's actually starting.  But here's why Jones is still a sleeper:  Andre Johnson has been healthy for an awful long time by Andre Johnson standards.  There are going to be alllllll kinds of injuries this year.  Should we assume Johnson to be immune?  No.  We should not.  So we should keep an eye on Jones.

Michael Bush, RB;
It's hard to really call Bush a "bust."  For that matter, I don't know that he was a sleeper.  But I can say many thought he would turn into a Bell Cow for an Oakland team that...in 2010...looked like they were headed in the right direction offensively, and had a very weak schedule.  None of that was true.  Oakland still sucked, and Bush was shoved to the side by a resurgent RunDMC.

So in 2011....we forget him.  Even with RunDMC on the pre-season sidelines, we're not really drafting him.  He's just a big back on the bad end of a timeshare with a crappy team.  And that won't change.  Unless... well....have you seen Oakland's schedule?  Denver, Buffallo, Houston, Cleveland, San Diego, Detroit......

Maybe I should have qualified the entire Oakland team as a rebound sleeper.  What if in his second year in the same offense Campbell finds his stride.  (We've seen it before.)  What if 3rd year receiver DHB and second year speedster Jacoby Ford step up.  What if....what if Oakland EVER just took a lead.  Would they turn to the frail McFadden to wind it down?  No.  They hand it to the man-beast known as Bush.  And when McFadden does get hurt?  That's a nice schedule to run against.  Oakland can do some damage in the not-at-all-intimidating-except-maybe-San Diego AFC West, and Bush may be a major beneficiary.

CJ Spiller, RB;
I'm the least enthusiastic about this name, but...I need to write about more than one RB right?  I could say Beanie Wells or Felix Jones, or a few other "busts" from last year...but we haven't forgotten them.  Not the way we forgot Spiller.  Last year we all assumed by week 6 that Buffalo would have no reason to show up on Sunday's except to give this guy 25 reps out of the backfield.  For the most part....that was true.  But...it's almost as if the organization collectively said "let's not subject CJ to this brutality just yet."

Now....there is little reason to expect that situation to change.  Same coaches, same line, same division.  Except...you know how every year there's that one team that has no reason whatsoever to be better, but they end up making the playoffs?  That may be this team.

I have no reason whatsoever to think the Bills will be good.  None.  Neither do you.  Which means...they may be that team.  And if they are that team, it's because of something unforeseeable.  And if it is unforeseeable.... Spiller is probably involved.

Montario Hardesty;
Peyton Hillis is on the cover of Madden.  That's the only reason you need to draft Hardesty.  He's still a highly skilled, relatively complete back.  I bring up the Spiller argument.  If you are a rebuilding Cleveland team....which back are you rebuilding with?

Alex Smith;
Nobody....and I mean nobody....is drafting Smith.  Tim Tebow has a higher ADP than Alex Smith.  Look...I'm not saying Smith will be a top 5 QB.  He won't.  And he wasn't going to be last year when you took him as the 12th overall QB between Cutler and Eli Manning.  And you knew that last year.

But you thought....with Vernon Davis, and Crabtree...there's a chance he could be more than serviceable.  He could be pretty good.  Maybe not Peyton Manning good, but better than Eli Manning good.

I think he still can.  All those weapons are still there surrounding him.  He's got a new coach.  The defense will improve...which means less pressure and more time of possession.  There's alot to like about San Fran this year, and as they go...so goes their QB.

Fantasy Football Draft 2011: Quarterback Strategy

Yesterday I got a text from my buddy telling me he was grabbing a quarterback with his round 2 pick.  He was lying.  He has to be lying.  At least I hope he's lying.  For his own sake.  Here is a short list of the dumbest, most life altering statements ever to come out of the mouths of my friends and family in no particular order:

1)  High School is hard.  I think I'll drop out.

2)  Congratulate us!  We're having our fourth baby! 

3)  I don't know why I got kicked out of our dart league.  My comment wasn't THAT racist!

4)  I don't like Guinness.  Do you have anything else?  (Context:  We were at the Guinness factory.)

5)  I think I'll use one of my first 4 picks on a quarterback in 2011.

So.....that last one was paraphrasing, but you get my point.

Over the past few years I've adopted the mindset that you need a QB in the first 3 rounds.  Somewhere right after Tom Brady followed Peyton's 50 TD effort with a 50 TD effort of his own.  The fact is, they're the highest scoring players on your roster, and having one of the top 3 can provide you a tremendous advantage.

The one year I didn't follow that was in 2008.  In 2008, I thought QB was very, very deep, and went high on wideouts.  I waited on QB's and drafted a young guy (Rodgers), a situational change guy (Kurt Warner) and a steady Vet coming off injury.  (Steve Burlein.)  By week 3 I cut Burlein and watched Warner and Rodgers tear up the leage, trading Rodgers for key pieces later in the season.

This year presents the same opportunity. 

This is the year where we are coming off of a lockout.  This is the year where any changes in receiving corps, coaches, defenses, alignments, philosophies, quarterbacks, HGH suppliers and foot cream medications can have drastic, unforseen effects.  Brady has not synced with 8 5.  (That's english for ocho cinco.)  Brees relies on timing and quick reads.  Romo hasn't been around in awhile.  We have no idea what TRUE strength of schedule may be.  This position will be VOLATILE, and you don't want to spend that high a pick on that unknown a factor.

Let's look at the ADP for the top 20 QB's:

1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	27	6	14.17
2	Michael Vick	QB	PHI	31	10	15.48
3	Drew Brees	QB	NO	32	10	33.14
4	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	29	7	36.09
5	Peyton Manning	QB	IND	35	13	39.09
6	Tom Brady	QB	NE	34	11	39.54
7	Tony Romo	QB	DAL	31	8	53.84
8	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	26	3	66.36
9	Matt Schaub	QB	HOU	30	7	68.41
10	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	29	7	71.40
11	Josh Freeman	QB	TB	23	2	73.16
12	Sam Bradford	QB	STL	23	1	89.79
13	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	23	2	92.35
14	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	30	7	92.38
15	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	26	3	104.29
16	Jay Cutler	QB	CHI	28	5	108.99
17	Matt Cassel	QB	KC	29	6	124.49
18	Kevin Kolb	QB	ARI	26	4	129.23
19	Tim Tebow	QB	DEN	23	1	134.11
20	Mark Sanchez	QB	NYJ	24	2	137.24
21	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	BUF	28	6	144.75
22	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	22	R	164.76
23	Kyle Orton	QB	DEN	28	6	165.15
24	David Garrard	QB	JAX	33	9	174.83
25	Colt McCoy	QB	CLE	24	1	177.77

Tony Romo....in Round 5.  Round 5!  Now...maybe that normally happens.  I don't know.  I normally draft him before the end of round 3.  But that seems like a pretty good deal.  But....don't take it him.  Take another WR.  Maybe an RB if Vereen is available. 

Now...assuming you're in a 12 team league because that is the only size that makes sense to play in (sorry...but if you're in a 10 team league you have no reason to trade ever, unless YOU are the person getting the 1 superstar, and giving up the 2 very good players to get him, and a 14 team league is too many to cover bye's properly without forcing a ridiculous trade) we'll give you time to get 2 RB's, 2WR's, and a flex or TE.  Then we turn our attention to QB's:

Guys to target in rounds 6-8:

Ben Roethlesburger:  Every other year Big Ben seems fluctuate from 20-35 TD's.  (Not more yards....just more TD's.)  This is that year.  His receivers are familiar.  No big changes...we all know the playbook.  Plus it's safe to let him be a star again, and he has a full 16 games.  Go for it.

Sam Bradford:  Look at his numbers with Mark Clayton, vs. without.  The second year QB would have been a top 10 guy last year if anyone with talent on that team stayed healthy, and he gets Donnie Avery back from injury to go along with Mike Sims-Walker.  And he has the same crappy defenses to carve through this year.  I like him.  Alot.

Eli Manning:  Taking Manning isn't about his ceiling.  It's about his floor.  And his floor is relatively high.  Not a bad safety net for some gambles later on.

But in rounds 6-8 don't draft:

Matt Ryan:  Julio Jones is a rookie.  Rookies suck.  Tony Gonzalez is old.  Old guys suck.  And Roddy White won't catch 115 again.  He's very, very good....but his 2010 numbers are not sustainable.  In truth....there's really no legitimate logic behind why I don't think Ryan will have a great season.  Just my gut telling me it's not sustainable.

Matt Schaub or Matt Stafford:  I group them together as I wouldn't draft them for the same reason.  Health.  Why roll that dice over the options I listed above?  Is there more upside?  Better schedules?  No.  There isn't.  And with all the other options...why bother.

Josh Freeman;  This offense is still feeling themselves out a little.  Freeman was up and down last year, and I expect more of the same in 2011.  Give him one more year.

Rounds 9-11

Go after:

Jay Cutler:  I hear you laughing already....but year 2 in a Martz offense, and he finally has a #1 WR, and a RB that can pass block.  Big things are ahead for him.

Joe Flacco:  It appears to be a pretty cake schedule. 

Don't Touch

Kevin Kolb:  In yesterday's practice he was reportedly running to the sideline after every play call to review the playbook.  Not in love with him.

Matt Cassel:  For an explanation, please see Ryan, Matt above.  Do you trust Bowe 2 years in a row?  Me neither.  Too many things went right for the Chiefs last year for it to happen again.  Last year Todd Haley seemed to think the only way he could beat the big boys was to get overly aggressive with trick/unexpected playcalling as opposed to letting your talent go tow-to-tow with them.  (Watch the Indy game.  A couple of fourth and short calls make a big difference.)  If he doesn't believe in his talent...you shouldn't either.

After that:

A couple names I'll throw into the mix late in the draft:

Klye Orton:  Is it me or is he a top 5 QB for the first 6 weeks of every season since 2008?  Maybe it's me.  Sure feels that way.  I can't think of anyone in football with more to prove.  Except of course....

Alex Smith:  I love San Fran this year.  Remember last year when everyone thought they were gonna be awesome, and I said in a forum that they weren't going to be, and then I got ripped for it in that forum, and then I was right because they sucked?  That was awesome.  But this year?  This year everyone thinks they suck.

They don't.

They'll be awesome.  And it won't necessarilly be because of Gore.  In fact...I like Hunter to make his presence known.  Either way though....look for third year man Crabtree to be moved to Flanker...where he belongs....and for Smith to be a viable QB.