Fantasy Football 2011: New Orleans Saints Fantasy Team Notes

The New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Futures:

Variety of Trove:  Treasure.  Kinda.

Did the Saints just sign Orlin Kreutz?  Seriously?  Could that line get any better?  Would it be possible to draft 5 or 6 Saints to dominate my fantasy league?

Maybe the better question is....do you want to?

The Saints are built to be an offensive machine.  They are who we look to when we can't make our own decision.  Flyer on a WR?  Lance Moore looks good.  Maybe Devery Henderson.  Strong #2 WR?  Marques Colston.  Or wait....is he a #1?  Or...isn't he a breakout candidate?  Or isn't every Saint a breakout candidate every year?  The fact is, we often look to the Saints as being full of fantasy treasure.  But quick question:  Name one player outside of Colston to gain more than 1000 yards.  Give up?  Deuce McCallister.

In 2006. 

That's a looooooong time for a team with such a great offense to go without producing anyone that could be referred to as a "Fantasy Stud."  Last year everyone had Pierre Thomas on their radar.  The year before?  Lance Moore.  Before that it was Reggie Bush.  Even Colston has only hit double digit TD's once in his career.  (11 in 2007.)  The other double digit TD man?  Moore had 10 in 2008.  There's hasn't been a RB with more than 9 TD's or 800 yards rushing in New Orleans since they dropped the Deuce in '06.

You can blame the system all you want.  Again...the Saints are built to be an offensive machine.  It is very true that Sean Payton loves to spread the love around.  But here's my theory:  That dome sucks.  Noone can stay healthy.  Even Colston has had issues staying healthy.  Hell.....if he was at full strength for 45 of the last 48 games, we could be talking about the future Hall of Famer as opposed to the most proficient cog in the Sean Payton Wheel.  So if you ask me if Pierre Thomas, or Ingram, or Ivory, or Henderson, or Moore, or Colston, or Sproles, are good draft picks, I will say "Yes.  They are Saints, and they play most of their games indoors this year, so the games they play in, they will excel in."  But if you ask me if any of them will play more than 13 games... I will say no.  They play most of their games indoors this year....so most will not play in more than 12 games.

The Saints are built to be an offensive machine:  one that offers you no more than a host of flex players.  Choose wisely.

Fantasy Player Notes

• Drew Brees will outscore Aaron Rodgers.  
• Sean Payton's version of the Coryell offense is easily one of the more successful bastardizations of it to hit a football field.  But it lives and dies with Drew Brees.  I've read a few articles about how "The NFL caught up with Payton's scheme last year."  That's crap.  Nobody caught up with that offense.  A decrease in defensive turnovers lead to a shorter average time of possession.  Combine that with a small injury here and there, and Brees just had a bit of a numbers correction, and still finished 6th in scoring for QBs.  Will the Saints run more?  Sure...but Brees will be on the edge of the elites again...right in front of Aaron Rodgers.

• Mark Ingram is the largest beneficiary of a more "run heavy" mentality, but is still a flex back.
• Payton has realized that when his defense isn't playing like a SuperBowl caliber turnover machine...you need something more to kill a clock than 5 yard dumps to Moore.  It might also be helpful to make a safety play within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage.  Hence....Mark Ingram.  
• Ingram is the only RB worth drafting as he'll be used to set up the pass, and run out the clock.  He'll likely have 6 or so very big games over the course of the year, mixed in with some garbage.  If you do draft him....you better handcuff with Thomas, or you'll be looking for a new #2 back come week 7
• Thomas will absolutely play.  He'll vulture a few TD's, and gain some yards here and there.  But think of him this way:  He'll split carries with Ingram in a "Marion Barber/Julius Jones" way.  Ingram is the Marion Barber, while Thomas is the Julius Jones.  Now.....throw Sproles for receiving situations.  Sucks don't it.

• Draft Colston as a low #1 WR.  Don't take any other NO receivers.
• Colston will only get 1000 yards and 8 TD's this year.  That said...those numbers will be enough to be within the top 12 of your league for WR's.  
• Henderson/Moore/et. all will still light it up for 5 games each.  You  don't draft guys for 5 games.  Especially when you don't know when they will show up.

• Jimmy Graham will go 700/4.
• There is no precedent for TE's in Payton's scheme.  Jimmy Graham is hyper talented, and you know of his 300 yards and 5 TD's in the last 4 games of the season.  But let me ask you what's more likely:  that after a host of RB injuries, they started using their TE in an unprecedented fashion, and his numbers will go back to normal over the course of a full season.....OR.....that pace will continue making him the first TE ever to break 20 TD's in a season. Honestly....I think that having Sproles there will hurt his value as well.  700/4 is nothing to sneeze at, but maybe not what you were hoping for.

Fantasy Football 2011: Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Team Notes

Is there any kind of trove that isn't treasure, or does treasure have that shit on lockdown?

I ask because every year entire teams can come out of nowhere to provide a trove....treasure or shit... of fantasy players. Nobody saw Bruce/Holt/Warner as round 1 picks in 2002, and noone expected Brady to throw 50 TD's in 2007, making Wes Welker and Ben Watson relevant.  In 2010 we found reason to pick up players from the Tampa Bay offensive unit not named Cadillac, and grabbed everyone we could find from Philly.  (C'mon....don't act like you knew....I got McCoy in round 3 in most leagues, Maclin off waivers, and noone drafted Vick.)  Conversely, the shit trove known as the Dallas Cowboys gave us the top rated TE, and a pile of flex players that couldn't stay healthy.

Parody is one of the great assets of the NFL.  As coordinators and free agents find new homes, philosophies change and talent develops, your 4-12 team can be relevant come playoff time.

Over this shortened off-season, 23 coordinators switched positions.  We've just had a free-agent frenzy.  Predicting your fantasy draft based on 2010 numbers is about as accurate and effective as a Tim Tebow defensive read.  (Meaning not at all accurate, or effective.)  So let's take this opportunity to break down the NFL conference by conference, look at the changes teams have made, and find some troves. The dart I threw dictates that we will start with the.......


2011 NFC South Fantasy Football Team Analysis:

The NFC South is a very intriguing division.  Home of traditional fantasy powerhouse New Orleans, this division also gives us a run based team with a new Head Coach and QB, the developing Freeman/Blount/Williams triplets, and an Atlanta team that has given us a 100+ reception WR....that promises to put MORE emphasis on the pass.

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Futures:

Variety of Trove:  Treasure

Where to begin with the Falcons.  Hmmm...how about here:  The Atlanta Falcons are going to the Superbowl.  I know I said the same thing last year, but this year I'm actually more positive of this.  Okay...now that I've said that:

Be very, very careful in how you draft Falcons players.  You may have spent the past week preparing for your fantasy drafts, and hearing all about how the Falcons will pass more, and bumping Matt Ryan into the first or second tier of QB's, tabbing Roddy White as a first round pick, and seriously considering drafting Julio Jones over the Bryants, Maclins, and Welkers of the world.

Don't do it.  The Falcons will not pass that much more.  Let me repeat....the Falcons will not pass that much more.  Ask Mike Mularkey:  http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2011/08/03/qa-mike-mularkey-discusses-plans-for-the-offense/  I know the established #1, talented rookie WR combo smacks of a 1998 Minnesota Vikings team........but it's not built that way.

The Falcons will pass further.  They will go deep.  They will attempt to create big plays.  But further does not equal more.  Further equals further.

This is still a Mike Mularkey offense.  He is an amazing offensive coordinator, but his bread and butter is the run.  Look at his Pittsburgh/Buffallo/Miami history.  Now....he has an incredible knack for using players unique skill sets to make big plays.  But...think Hines Ward/Randel El, or Eric Moulds bad year/Lee Evans good year....not exactly Moss and Carter.

Lastly...take a look at the schedule.  Overall.....it's not a bad schedule.  (No schedule that includes the Panthers twice is.)  It could very easily be 14 wins.  However....the passing schedule?  It's kind of brutal.  Squaring off against the NFC North, and the AFC South, with Philly sprinkled in for good measure, It's chock-fulla defenses that feature pass rushers and elite cornerbacks, and offenses that...well....you're not really going to outgun.  But you can run on them.  Oh...you can run on them.  Atlanta opponents combined gave up the highest amount of rushing yards in 2010.  That bodes well for the run.  And so....

• Downgrade Roddey White into Round 3-4:
• I know you think I'm nuts...and he's still a top 10 WR...but he's not the 2010 Roddy White.  He'll be the incredibly frustrating, small game/big game Greg Jennings-ish WR of 2009.  Julio is a much better option than Jenkins was, and will be sharing the downfield duties out of the Z that White commanded from the split-end spot.  White will be good, but he won't have 100+ catches again, or the consistent yards that come with it.  If you're taking a WR late round 1/early round 2, don't let it be White.  He won't pay in that spot.

• Jump all over Michael Turner at the end of Round 1:
• I know I'm stating the obvious, but the fact is I'm seeing Turner slip into round 2, as options like McFadden and Gore are getting picked up before him.  As MJD proves healthy, Rashad Mendenhall gets more press, and news of an improved Atlanta passing attack has spread, Turner's ADP has dropped to 10 for RB's.  That's crap.  He's still a fantasy anchor, and has a better schedule than the rest of the backs in his tier.  Once the "big 5" backs are gone....turn your attention his way.

• Take Jason Snelling over Jacquizz Rodgers:
• That is to say, take a good, hard look at him by the end of the draft.  IF Turner goes down...he will be the most valuable property on the wire, with a cake schedule, and 3 down ability.  Ignore JacqJizz....he's not grasping the offense, and he's showing that this preseason.  There's a reason the Falcons went back after Snelling in mid-August....and that's because JacqJizz isn't cutting it.

• Don't over hype Julio Jones:
• Is he the real deal?  Yes.  But he's not Randy Moss either.  Don't crank your expectations too high...but he will have some big games.  You will just have to take some bad along with them.  Don't overdraft him, but if he's there in round 7....not a bad deal.

• Tony Gonzalez is becoming an afterthought:
• There's a reason they cut Peele, and kept Kelley as a backup TE.  They need blockers.  They will use the TE's to block more than ever in order to set up big plays and reverses.  While Gonzalez is the unquestioned starter, his receiving numbers may dip into the 400 range as he drops into protection more frequently.

• Harry Douglas is fast:
• I've always loved this guy.  He's a quick, small little slot back with big play potential.  You should not draft him.  But you should keep an eye on him.  He may be the Randel El in this offensive unit.

• Matt Ryan is still...well....Matt Ryan.
• Matt Ryan is a very solid QB.  Would I want him as a backup?  Yes.  But there is very little reason to think that he's going to be much better than his 3700 yard 28/9 performance of 2010.  That makes him a very low #1, high #2 QB.  Keep Rothlesburger and Schaub in front of him on your draft list.