Is there any kind of trove that isn't treasure, or does treasure have that shit on lockdown?
I ask because every year entire teams can come out of nowhere to provide a trove....treasure or shit... of fantasy players. Nobody saw Bruce/Holt/Warner as round 1 picks in 2002, and noone expected Brady to throw 50 TD's in 2007, making Wes Welker and Ben Watson relevant. In 2010 we found reason to pick up players from the Tampa Bay offensive unit not named Cadillac, and grabbed everyone we could find from Philly. (C'mon....don't act like you knew....I got McCoy in round 3 in most leagues, Maclin off waivers, and noone drafted Vick.) Conversely, the shit trove known as the Dallas Cowboys gave us the top rated TE, and a pile of flex players that couldn't stay healthy.
Parody is one of the great assets of the NFL. As coordinators and free agents find new homes, philosophies change and talent develops, your 4-12 team can be relevant come playoff time.
Over this shortened off-season, 23 coordinators switched positions. We've just had a free-agent frenzy. Predicting your fantasy draft based on 2010 numbers is about as accurate and effective as a Tim Tebow defensive read. (Meaning not at all accurate, or effective.) So let's take this opportunity to break down the NFL conference by conference, look at the changes teams have made, and find some troves. The dart I threw dictates that we will start with the.......
2011 NFC South Fantasy Football Team Analysis:
The NFC South is a very intriguing division. Home of traditional fantasy powerhouse New Orleans, this division also gives us a run based team with a new Head Coach and QB, the developing Freeman/Blount/Williams triplets, and an Atlanta team that has given us a 100+ reception WR....that promises to put MORE emphasis on the pass.
Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Futures:
Variety of Trove: Treasure
Where to begin with the Falcons. Hmmm...how about here: The Atlanta Falcons are going to the Superbowl. I know I said the same thing last year, but this year I'm actually more positive of this. Okay...now that I've said that:
Be very, very careful in how you draft Falcons players. You may have spent the past week preparing for your fantasy drafts, and hearing all about how the Falcons will pass more, and bumping Matt Ryan into the first or second tier of QB's, tabbing Roddy White as a first round pick, and seriously considering drafting Julio Jones over the Bryants, Maclins, and Welkers of the world.
Don't do it. The Falcons will not pass that much more. Let me repeat....the Falcons will not pass that much more. Ask Mike Mularkey: http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2011/08/03/qa-mike-mularkey-discusses-plans-for-the-offense/ I know the established #1, talented rookie WR combo smacks of a 1998 Minnesota Vikings team........but it's not built that way.
The Falcons will pass further. They will go deep. They will attempt to create big plays. But further does not equal more. Further equals further.
This is still a Mike Mularkey offense. He is an amazing offensive coordinator, but his bread and butter is the run. Look at his Pittsburgh/Buffallo/Miami history. Now....he has an incredible knack for using players unique skill sets to make big plays. But...think Hines Ward/Randel El, or Eric Moulds bad year/Lee Evans good year....not exactly Moss and Carter.
Lastly...take a look at the schedule. Overall.....it's not a bad schedule. (No schedule that includes the Panthers twice is.) It could very easily be 14 wins. However....the passing schedule? It's kind of brutal. Squaring off against the NFC North, and the AFC South, with Philly sprinkled in for good measure, It's chock-fulla defenses that feature pass rushers and elite cornerbacks, and offenses that...well....you're not really going to outgun. But you can run on them. Oh...you can run on them. Atlanta opponents combined gave up the highest amount of rushing yards in 2010. That bodes well for the run. And so....
I ask because every year entire teams can come out of nowhere to provide a trove....treasure or shit... of fantasy players. Nobody saw Bruce/Holt/Warner as round 1 picks in 2002, and noone expected Brady to throw 50 TD's in 2007, making Wes Welker and Ben Watson relevant. In 2010 we found reason to pick up players from the Tampa Bay offensive unit not named Cadillac, and grabbed everyone we could find from Philly. (C'mon....don't act like you knew....I got McCoy in round 3 in most leagues, Maclin off waivers, and noone drafted Vick.) Conversely, the shit trove known as the Dallas Cowboys gave us the top rated TE, and a pile of flex players that couldn't stay healthy.
Parody is one of the great assets of the NFL. As coordinators and free agents find new homes, philosophies change and talent develops, your 4-12 team can be relevant come playoff time.
Over this shortened off-season, 23 coordinators switched positions. We've just had a free-agent frenzy. Predicting your fantasy draft based on 2010 numbers is about as accurate and effective as a Tim Tebow defensive read. (Meaning not at all accurate, or effective.) So let's take this opportunity to break down the NFL conference by conference, look at the changes teams have made, and find some troves. The dart I threw dictates that we will start with the.......
2011 NFC South Fantasy Football Team Analysis:
The NFC South is a very intriguing division. Home of traditional fantasy powerhouse New Orleans, this division also gives us a run based team with a new Head Coach and QB, the developing Freeman/Blount/Williams triplets, and an Atlanta team that has given us a 100+ reception WR....that promises to put MORE emphasis on the pass.
Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Futures:
Variety of Trove: Treasure
Where to begin with the Falcons. Hmmm...how about here: The Atlanta Falcons are going to the Superbowl. I know I said the same thing last year, but this year I'm actually more positive of this. Okay...now that I've said that:
Be very, very careful in how you draft Falcons players. You may have spent the past week preparing for your fantasy drafts, and hearing all about how the Falcons will pass more, and bumping Matt Ryan into the first or second tier of QB's, tabbing Roddy White as a first round pick, and seriously considering drafting Julio Jones over the Bryants, Maclins, and Welkers of the world.
Don't do it. The Falcons will not pass that much more. Let me repeat....the Falcons will not pass that much more. Ask Mike Mularkey: http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2011/08/03/qa-mike-mularkey-discusses-plans-for-the-offense/ I know the established #1, talented rookie WR combo smacks of a 1998 Minnesota Vikings team........but it's not built that way.
The Falcons will pass further. They will go deep. They will attempt to create big plays. But further does not equal more. Further equals further.
This is still a Mike Mularkey offense. He is an amazing offensive coordinator, but his bread and butter is the run. Look at his Pittsburgh/Buffallo/Miami history. Now....he has an incredible knack for using players unique skill sets to make big plays. But...think Hines Ward/Randel El, or Eric Moulds bad year/Lee Evans good year....not exactly Moss and Carter.
Lastly...take a look at the schedule. Overall.....it's not a bad schedule. (No schedule that includes the Panthers twice is.) It could very easily be 14 wins. However....the passing schedule? It's kind of brutal. Squaring off against the NFC North, and the AFC South, with Philly sprinkled in for good measure, It's chock-fulla defenses that feature pass rushers and elite cornerbacks, and offenses that...well....you're not really going to outgun. But you can run on them. Oh...you can run on them. Atlanta opponents combined gave up the highest amount of rushing yards in 2010. That bodes well for the run. And so....
- Downgrade Roddey White into Round 3-4:
- I know you think I'm nuts...and he's still a top 10 WR...but he's not the 2010 Roddy White. He'll be the incredibly frustrating, small game/big game Greg Jennings-ish WR of 2009. Julio is a much better option than Jenkins was, and will be sharing the downfield duties out of the Z that White commanded from the split-end spot. White will be good, but he won't have 100+ catches again, or the consistent yards that come with it. If you're taking a WR late round 1/early round 2, don't let it be White. He won't pay in that spot.
- Jump all over Michael Turner at the end of Round 1:
- I know I'm stating the obvious, but the fact is I'm seeing Turner slip into round 2, as options like McFadden and Gore are getting picked up before him. As MJD proves healthy, Rashad Mendenhall gets more press, and news of an improved Atlanta passing attack has spread, Turner's ADP has dropped to 10 for RB's. That's crap. He's still a fantasy anchor, and has a better schedule than the rest of the backs in his tier. Once the "big 5" backs are gone....turn your attention his way.
- Take Jason Snelling over Jacquizz Rodgers:
- That is to say, take a good, hard look at him by the end of the draft. IF Turner goes down...he will be the most valuable property on the wire, with a cake schedule, and 3 down ability. Ignore JacqJizz....he's not grasping the offense, and he's showing that this preseason. There's a reason the Falcons went back after Snelling in mid-August....and that's because JacqJizz isn't cutting it.
- Don't over hype Julio Jones:
- Is he the real deal? Yes. But he's not Randy Moss either. Don't crank your expectations too high...but he will have some big games. You will just have to take some bad along with them. Don't overdraft him, but if he's there in round 7....not a bad deal.
- Tony Gonzalez is becoming an afterthought:
- There's a reason they cut Peele, and kept Kelley as a backup TE. They need blockers. They will use the TE's to block more than ever in order to set up big plays and reverses. While Gonzalez is the unquestioned starter, his receiving numbers may dip into the 400 range as he drops into protection more frequently.
- Harry Douglas is fast:
- I've always loved this guy. He's a quick, small little slot back with big play potential. You should not draft him. But you should keep an eye on him. He may be the Randel El in this offensive unit.
- Matt Ryan is still...well....Matt Ryan.
- Matt Ryan is a very solid QB. Would I want him as a backup? Yes. But there is very little reason to think that he's going to be much better than his 3700 yard 28/9 performance of 2010. That makes him a very low #1, high #2 QB. Keep Rothlesburger and Schaub in front of him on your draft list.
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