Fantasy Football Draft 2011: Quarterback Strategy

Yesterday I got a text from my buddy telling me he was grabbing a quarterback with his round 2 pick.  He was lying.  He has to be lying.  At least I hope he's lying.  For his own sake.  Here is a short list of the dumbest, most life altering statements ever to come out of the mouths of my friends and family in no particular order:

1)  High School is hard.  I think I'll drop out.

2)  Congratulate us!  We're having our fourth baby! 

3)  I don't know why I got kicked out of our dart league.  My comment wasn't THAT racist!

4)  I don't like Guinness.  Do you have anything else?  (Context:  We were at the Guinness factory.)

5)  I think I'll use one of my first 4 picks on a quarterback in 2011.

So.....that last one was paraphrasing, but you get my point.

Over the past few years I've adopted the mindset that you need a QB in the first 3 rounds.  Somewhere right after Tom Brady followed Peyton's 50 TD effort with a 50 TD effort of his own.  The fact is, they're the highest scoring players on your roster, and having one of the top 3 can provide you a tremendous advantage.

The one year I didn't follow that was in 2008.  In 2008, I thought QB was very, very deep, and went high on wideouts.  I waited on QB's and drafted a young guy (Rodgers), a situational change guy (Kurt Warner) and a steady Vet coming off injury.  (Steve Burlein.)  By week 3 I cut Burlein and watched Warner and Rodgers tear up the leage, trading Rodgers for key pieces later in the season.

This year presents the same opportunity. 

This is the year where we are coming off of a lockout.  This is the year where any changes in receiving corps, coaches, defenses, alignments, philosophies, quarterbacks, HGH suppliers and foot cream medications can have drastic, unforseen effects.  Brady has not synced with 8 5.  (That's english for ocho cinco.)  Brees relies on timing and quick reads.  Romo hasn't been around in awhile.  We have no idea what TRUE strength of schedule may be.  This position will be VOLATILE, and you don't want to spend that high a pick on that unknown a factor.

Let's look at the ADP for the top 20 QB's:

1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	27	6	14.17
2	Michael Vick	QB	PHI	31	10	15.48
3	Drew Brees	QB	NO	32	10	33.14
4	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	29	7	36.09
5	Peyton Manning	QB	IND	35	13	39.09
6	Tom Brady	QB	NE	34	11	39.54
7	Tony Romo	QB	DAL	31	8	53.84
8	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	26	3	66.36
9	Matt Schaub	QB	HOU	30	7	68.41
10	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	29	7	71.40
11	Josh Freeman	QB	TB	23	2	73.16
12	Sam Bradford	QB	STL	23	1	89.79
13	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	23	2	92.35
14	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	30	7	92.38
15	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	26	3	104.29
16	Jay Cutler	QB	CHI	28	5	108.99
17	Matt Cassel	QB	KC	29	6	124.49
18	Kevin Kolb	QB	ARI	26	4	129.23
19	Tim Tebow	QB	DEN	23	1	134.11
20	Mark Sanchez	QB	NYJ	24	2	137.24
21	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	BUF	28	6	144.75
22	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	22	R	164.76
23	Kyle Orton	QB	DEN	28	6	165.15
24	David Garrard	QB	JAX	33	9	174.83
25	Colt McCoy	QB	CLE	24	1	177.77

Tony Romo....in Round 5.  Round 5!  Now...maybe that normally happens.  I don't know.  I normally draft him before the end of round 3.  But that seems like a pretty good deal.  But....don't take it him.  Take another WR.  Maybe an RB if Vereen is available. 

Now...assuming you're in a 12 team league because that is the only size that makes sense to play in (sorry...but if you're in a 10 team league you have no reason to trade ever, unless YOU are the person getting the 1 superstar, and giving up the 2 very good players to get him, and a 14 team league is too many to cover bye's properly without forcing a ridiculous trade) we'll give you time to get 2 RB's, 2WR's, and a flex or TE.  Then we turn our attention to QB's:

Guys to target in rounds 6-8:

Ben Roethlesburger:  Every other year Big Ben seems fluctuate from 20-35 TD's.  (Not more yards....just more TD's.)  This is that year.  His receivers are familiar.  No big changes...we all know the playbook.  Plus it's safe to let him be a star again, and he has a full 16 games.  Go for it.

Sam Bradford:  Look at his numbers with Mark Clayton, vs. without.  The second year QB would have been a top 10 guy last year if anyone with talent on that team stayed healthy, and he gets Donnie Avery back from injury to go along with Mike Sims-Walker.  And he has the same crappy defenses to carve through this year.  I like him.  Alot.

Eli Manning:  Taking Manning isn't about his ceiling.  It's about his floor.  And his floor is relatively high.  Not a bad safety net for some gambles later on.

But in rounds 6-8 don't draft:

Matt Ryan:  Julio Jones is a rookie.  Rookies suck.  Tony Gonzalez is old.  Old guys suck.  And Roddy White won't catch 115 again.  He's very, very good....but his 2010 numbers are not sustainable.  In truth....there's really no legitimate logic behind why I don't think Ryan will have a great season.  Just my gut telling me it's not sustainable.

Matt Schaub or Matt Stafford:  I group them together as I wouldn't draft them for the same reason.  Health.  Why roll that dice over the options I listed above?  Is there more upside?  Better schedules?  No.  There isn't.  And with all the other options...why bother.

Josh Freeman;  This offense is still feeling themselves out a little.  Freeman was up and down last year, and I expect more of the same in 2011.  Give him one more year.

Rounds 9-11

Go after:

Jay Cutler:  I hear you laughing already....but year 2 in a Martz offense, and he finally has a #1 WR, and a RB that can pass block.  Big things are ahead for him.

Joe Flacco:  It appears to be a pretty cake schedule. 

Don't Touch

Kevin Kolb:  In yesterday's practice he was reportedly running to the sideline after every play call to review the playbook.  Not in love with him.

Matt Cassel:  For an explanation, please see Ryan, Matt above.  Do you trust Bowe 2 years in a row?  Me neither.  Too many things went right for the Chiefs last year for it to happen again.  Last year Todd Haley seemed to think the only way he could beat the big boys was to get overly aggressive with trick/unexpected playcalling as opposed to letting your talent go tow-to-tow with them.  (Watch the Indy game.  A couple of fourth and short calls make a big difference.)  If he doesn't believe in his talent...you shouldn't either.

After that:

A couple names I'll throw into the mix late in the draft:

Klye Orton:  Is it me or is he a top 5 QB for the first 6 weeks of every season since 2008?  Maybe it's me.  Sure feels that way.  I can't think of anyone in football with more to prove.  Except of course....

Alex Smith:  I love San Fran this year.  Remember last year when everyone thought they were gonna be awesome, and I said in a forum that they weren't going to be, and then I got ripped for it in that forum, and then I was right because they sucked?  That was awesome.  But this year?  This year everyone thinks they suck.

They don't.

They'll be awesome.  And it won't necessarilly be because of Gore.  In fact...I like Hunter to make his presence known.  Either way though....look for third year man Crabtree to be moved to Flanker...where he belongs....and for Smith to be a viable QB.