So last week didn't work out all that well. Aside from Danny Amendola, you likely cursed my name if you started any of my recommendations. But....in all likelihood....you didn't. You knew better. You understood that most teams weren't going to suddenly change their preseason plans and stray away from their starters in week 1.
But it's week 2 now.....the game has changed. Not because of who will be getting unexpected carries, but because of who is actually owned in your leagues. Guys like Kenny Britt, Bernard Berrian, and Jacoby Jones have become widely available. It's not that they won't be useful, it's just that they are too tough to predict when they will be useful. As the Peyton Hillis' of the world get picked up, the Leon Washingtons' get dropped.
My goal in this space is to give you guys that are owned in less than 35% of leagues that will give you value this week. A few recommendations for each position, so if you lost Ryan Grant, or you are relying on CJ Spiller for a solid #2....and you were too slow on Brandon Jackson or Tampa's Mike Williams, you're searching for a cheap answer. So here is next weeks Peyton Hillis and Mike Williams;
Running Back:
Mike Bell, Philadelphia:
Bell is owned in 6% of all Yahoo leagues. That stands to reason, seeing as he had one carry for 6 yards which was negated by a hold last Sunday. However....the Eagles were behind, and throwing, all game. This week they have Detroit.
Don't be fooled by how effective Detroit was against Chicago's run. It just means Chicago can't run. Yes, that front four is a much improved corp from 2009.....but Chicago's O-Line is not cut out to push back Suh and company. Philly's is. You gotta imagine at some point Philly is going to try to grind out the clock much like Chicago did. That's when Chester Taylor got his carries last week, and that's when Bell will get them this week.
20% of the Philly offense went through McCoy last week while Bell was dealing with a strained toe. Especially in the Red Zone....where he was largely ineffective. Add in the fact that Weaver's no longer there to set up the diminutive McCoy on the goal-line....it's almost like Philly has no choice but to turn to Bell.
Prediction: 7 Carries, 38 yards, 1 TD.
Kareem Huggins: Tampa Bay 7% Ownership
I'm not backing off this guy just yet. Olson admits that they need to mix him in a little more. Carolina got torched by the run in week 1. Don't let Bradshaw's first half fool you....he beat himself. They just don't have the ability to handle a speed guy like Huggins. If Brandon Jacobs can rip off a 22 yard run, and Bradshaw can rip off a 39 yard run.....I would like to see what Huggins can do after a team spends all game going after Cadillac and Earnest Graham.
Prediction: 4 carries, 1 reception, 70 total yards and 1 TD.
Le'Ron McClain: Baltimore Ravens 2% ownership
Who DIDN'T run effectively against the Bengals last week. I'll say it again...without Antwan Odom, that defense has no teeth. McClain got a little over 10% of the touches against the Jets last week, but with McGahee being so monumentally ineffective.....I can see that number getting to 15% easy, with a good deal of goal line work.
Prediction: 5 carries, 1 reception 30 yards, 1 TD
John Kuhn: Green Bay Packers 2% ownership
If Brandon Jackson has shown anything in his career, it's that he can't be depended on as a feature back, and is not at all reliable at the goal line. If Green Bay showed you anything it's that they prefer to run if at all possible. If Buffalo showed you anything it's that they are more than willing to roll out the red carpet for your running backs to excel as long as your #1 receiver doesn't get in the end-zone with more of this "bend don't break" crap. Add it all together......
Predictions: 6 carries, 18 yards, 2 TD's.
Wide Receivers
Jason Avant: 2% ownership.
C'mon guys....2%? Did we watch the same game? You know...everyone loves to talk about breakout third year receivers....but noone ever mentions this guy as a top option. There is maybe no waiver pickup that I am higher on in week 2 than Avant.
In week 1, D. Jackson got all the targets and Maclin got the TD....but Avant was right there in the Middle of both, and got the yards. Avant got more targets than Maclin once Vick got in the game. Vick will be in the game again. Detroit didn't do a great job against Aromoshodu in the slot last week, which is where Avant will be. Detroit will again be trying to stop a pass heavy offense, concentrating on much stronger #1 and #2 receivers, while keeping OLB's at home to contain Vick. The slot should be WIDE open, and Avant has more ability than Aromoshouda. Yes I realize that I've spelled Aromoushoda's name differently three times. Get used to it.
Predictions: 6 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: Atlanta, 1% ownership.
Danny Amendola did a nice job out of the slot against Arizona, and Clayton had a tremendous game. That's with Sam Bradford as a QB. Imagine what a receiver with Matt Ryan could do.
Atlanta will likely run the majority of the game, but AZ did a solid if not great job against Stephen Jackson. Roddy White is way too much of a factor in this offense, so there's isn't too many balls to go around. I'm not saying Douglas will get many targets. But when he does, I think this week he does some great things with them as opposed to being stuffed by a Pittsburgh corner. He's got a real chance to break a big one this week.
Prediction: 3 reception, 45 yards, 1TD.
Josh Cribbs; Cleveland Browns: 28% Ownership
The Browns used Cribbs all over the field last week. KC allowed 100+ yards to Naanee, and did a solid job stopping Mathew Ryan. Mangini has already said he needs to get Cribbs more involved....and he's right. After last weeks loss, I think every stop imagineable will be pulled out. Hell....Cribbs may throw for a TD.
Prediction: 38 yards receiving, 17 yards rushing, 28 yards passing, 2 overall TD's.
Nate Burleson: Detroit; 19% Ownership.
Man....Best just looked...rough last week. I think after a week of film on Detroit, Philly will be more successful putting up points against Detroit. That means like it or not.....Detroit has to throw. Donald Driver had 30 yards and a TD against Philly, and that's when Green Bay was trying to grind the clock out against them. Shaun Hill worries everyone, and will likely throw 80% of all passes in Calvin Johson's direction.... but he was more than willing to look to his #2 WR in his time with San Fran, and I can see this working out for Burleson.
Prediction: 4 catches, 65 yards.
Mike Thomas: Jaguars, 10% owned.
He had 89 yards last week. Granted....it was against Denver....but he had 89 yards last week. Sims-Walker? 0 yards. Yes, it was against Champ Bailey, but this just shows where David Garrard's head is. Throw it to the MOST open guy, and Mike Thomas is a hell of alot faster/quicker/better than Chris Chambers. He'll be open plenty.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD.
Dwayne Jarret, Carolina, 1% ownership:
Randy Moss demonstrated that Cincy can shut down your #1 WR, and Wes Welker showed they can't shut down your #2. No...Matt Moore is no Brady....but he targeted Jarret plenty last week. Carolina will run alot more, but when they do pass, Jarret will be open.
Prediction: 6 grabs, 89 yards, 1 TD.
Tight Ends
Tony Moeki: Kansas City: 1% Ownership.
Drop Mercedes Lewis. Pick up Tony Moeki. Kellen Winslow demostrated that crappy QB's can still throw to their TE's against Cleveland. Moeki's THE redzone receiver for this team. Bank on it.
Prediction: 4 catches, 38 yards, 1TD
Aaron Hernandez: Patriot's: 3% ownership.
I just think the Pats are going to have their hands full this weekend. The Jets D and Cincy aren't on the same field. Sooner or later, the Pats are going to have to throw. Moss will AGAIN be taken out of the game, and I think Welker see's that much more coverage. Plus...you saw the Jets allow Todd Heap behind their defense to keep the Baltimore WR's/RB's in check. That's Todd Heap. Hernandez did a solid job last week, and while he didn't get the TD, he did get the yards.
Prediction: 6 catches, 81 yards.
Quarterbacks:
Matt Hasselback: Seattle Seahawks, 32% ownership
I'm saying it again. Bad pass defense, and Seattle will open up the passing game. If Garrard can hit for 3 TD's, Hasselback will get you at least 2.
260 yards, 2 TD's.
Matt Moore: Carolina Panthers, 10% ownership.
Let's just say that Moore is at least as good as Delholme, with more talent at his disposal.
Predictions: 240 yards, 2 TD's.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Fantasy Football Notebook: Not So Much Shock...Just Awe
The first thing you should all be in awe about is my gut feelings column. Looking back on it.....before any games were played mind you......genius.
That said......my "waiver wire wonders" were way off. Good thing you didn't listen to me. Don't feel bad. I didn't either. The fact is, during week 1 coaches are all too willing to stick with their stars and see what they have. Guys like Lance Ball will take some time to earn their carries. That said, week one wasn't all vanilla. There were some interesting things to put in that notebook.
Minny v. New Orleans:
Shock: Saints Defense.
Minnesota made New Orleans offense look a little worse than it is, and their defense a little better than it is. But even after that tough game I'm expecting a decline on both over the season. For some reason, Minny stopped running.......AP was just getting started. AP owners better not hope this is a trend.
Awe: QB Inefficacy
Here's the deal with Favre......everyone forgets the first 4 weeks of the season in 2009, he was...well....good, not great. By the end of week 4 you were glad you had him as your backup. By the end of week 8 you were trying to trade for him desperately because you put all your fantasy hopes on Jay Cutler. Now I hate Favre, and I know he has a bad ankle, but he's just not going to be that bad. Minny's next two games have Miami and Detroit coming to town before their bye week. They then have a hell like schedule....but you would rather pass against NJ, Dallas, Green Bay and New England than run. He may not be a top 5 QB, but if you drafted him as a starter, don't freak out just yet. You can't trade him for value, so you're pretty much stuck with him. Get a solid backup....Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco may be on the block for cheap after week 1, and they should serve you well over the next couple of weeks until Favre gets his timing.
Drew Brees: Good amount of attempts (36), and a high completion percentage (75%) and an excellent overall QB rating (101). And through all of that.........237 yards, 1 TD. It's not his ability...it's how defenses will play the Saints. Welcome to your 2010 version of Drew Brees. Great QB in real life........but the fantasy numbers won't be as strong as the past 3 years. Trade him now.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
This is not Reggie Bush's breakout year. He's going to do what he always does, and that's not changing. That said, don't be overly sold on Pierre Thomas. Yes....he was a workhorse back, but he wasn't overly impressive, and Ivory was hurt. I still love Ivory as a change of pace back, and a real chance to shine in week 4 against Carolina.
Feel free to cut Bernard Berrian, and try to get Camarillo if you haven't already. Saints WR's will be frustrating to own due to inconsistency. This is no longer a situation where 2-3 guys can still post high numbers. They will take turns doing so, and wreak havoc on your decision making.
Miami at Buffallo:
Shock: Buffallo threw....alot.
The real shock here.............CJ Spiller got nothing, and did little with what he did get. Here's my breakdown of the Chan Gailey era to date:
"I have a couple of solid running backs and an MLB that can tackle when he's healthy. So what I'll do in the draft is simply reinforce those positions instead of getting someone to hold down one of the other 20 positions that are problem areas for my team. Then....after drafting these guys....I'll make them irrelevant in my gameplanning cause I'm Chan Fucking Gailey, and if I wanna pass the ball, I'm gonna pass the damn ball."
So essentially.......there are absolutely no relevant fantasy players on Buffallo. None. Don't even pick up their defense. And I'm sure if you grabbed their kicker as a bye week fill in, he will find a way to make fantasy history by scoring negative points.
Awe: How Bad Miami is going to be.
Not surprised by anything Miami did. After watching a full preseason of Chad Henne, Bill Parcells effectively apologized to Dolphin fans, and said "I want no responsibility for this whatsoever." Sorry Brandon Marshall owners, but things may get better. I apologize if you picked up Hartline after my recommendation last week. 2 drops...0 catches.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Miami had 6 passes dropped. That's a ton. Expect Anthony Fasano to become a very relevant fantasy TE based on the fact he can hold onto the ball. He and Marshall should combine for 90% of all non-running back receptions going forward. As far as Marshall goes...has anyone ever caught 100 balls and not gotten 1000 yards in a season? He may be the first.
Detroit at Chicago:
Shock: The Ref's made it out alive. Nuff said.
Awe: Without Forte's numbers......Cutler's don't look great either.
This is more of a comment on Detroit's defense than Cutler. At this point in the year, Defenses are generally better than offenses that are still trying to find their rhythm. The Bears clearly need more time to get that rhythm, but they did a good job of finding some weak spots and attacking them as the game progressed. This tells me that Cutler will put up better than Kitna numbers, and the WR's will take turns having breakout games. It also tells me that Detroit's D is good enough to give Kolb, and Favre a rough time over the next couple of weeks.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Forte's value will be in the passing game this year. It has less to do with the fact that he didn't run that well against Detroit, and more to do with the fact that he only got 17 carries against them. With Philly, Minny, and Green Bay coming up over the next three weeks......we may see Chester Taylor get his shots against Carolina and Seattle on the ground. This doesn't mean you should grab Taylor....it means that neither will have much value.
Either Chicago's run D is that good....or Best isn't that impressive. I think it's a little bit of column A, little bit of column B. Yeah...I know...2 TD's. But a 1.4 YPC average doesn't bode well for the rookie. He's a big play machine that got boxed in by Chicago. He'll be fine, but his value will be more closely linked to Stafford than Megatron's will be. Either way Johnson will get his looks....it's just how many defenders each of them have to face every game.
Aromashodu will be the most consistent producer for Chicago, so he's your #3 WR. I expect Knox to have value...like against Dallas next week....but it's situational. Bad safety's? Start Knox. Good safety's? Bench him. Good bye-week fill in to have on your roster.
Calvin Johson will be receiving alot of late game TD bomb attempts, and will never brace his fall with the football again. If you drafted him....enjoy. Given how often Detroit ran inside the 20, expect him to be the only Detroit receiver with any value, including the TE's.
Indy v. Houston;
Shock: Houston's completely comfortable running alllllllll day.
It doesn't shock me that Houston won. It doesn't shock me that Foster had a great game. It did shock me as to HOW great a game he had. I know Indy has a crap run D, and Foster is talented.....but with Schaub, Johnson, Jones, and Owens, I expected more passing. Foster just took the reigns and didn't let go. Give Kubiak alot of credit for attacking the opponents weakest point relentlessly. I don't expect that to be every week.... but this offense is legit. That means some weeks, Foster will be huge, and some weeks that pass offense will be huge.
Awe: Indy sucks....except Austin Collie:
I said they wouldn't win the division, but....wow. Completely exposed. I'm sure they game planned for a heavy pass attack, but.....they couldn't stop anything. Peyton Manning did everything a man could do to win. 450 yards on 57 attempts is as much as you can ask for. But that defense was a friggin siv. Good luck with MJD, Moreno, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson, and the NFC East on the schedule.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I know Manning and Collie had a repertoire... but....damn. The guy didn't even give Garcon or Gonzalez a passing glance when they were on the field. Trade Garcon now, and cut Gonzalez.
Jacoby Jones saw his share of end-zone looks. Trade for the big, talented WR now before he starts his 8 TD run. Owen Daniels just dropped in relevance......along with Andre Johnson.
That Houston D wasn't exactly good. Their offense will force teams to air it out. Every QB they face is a prime contender to be the weeks highest scoring fantasy player.
Denver at Jacksonville;
Shock: A QB shootout?
I think Orton and Garrard are safe matchup guys. This changed nothing in my opinion of them. But I will start opposing QB's and WR's with confidence against both squad's. C'mon Jags....you're better than this.
Awe: Really? Really? A QB shootout?
Explanation for the thunder delay.....in a goal line situation, while playing in Florida, Denver did not insert Tim Tebow at QB. When you go against nature like that, it will respond with wrath. But more importantly it shows that both head coaches are just fine using their starting QB's all season, and taking what the opposing defenses give them.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Apparently, both defenses are willing to give the slot receiver plenty of cushion. TE's against Denver, and slot receivers against Jacksonville have become must starts.
No sign of Lance Ball, even with a hurting Moreno and Buckhalter. 75% of the runs went to Moreno. I'm thinking that remains the case until he gets hurt again. He has Seattle and Indy over the next couple weeks....you may want to check on his availability after a 60 yard output. That number should increase.
With a bunch of easy run defenses coming up on the schedule....don't be so quick to grab Eddie Royal. If you have him, now's a great time to dangle him. Even if he racks up some yards between the 20's, his endzone looks will be rare. I say the same for the constantly overtaughted Mercedes Lewis. He has a game or two like this ever year, and then fades away. Trade him now, and if he's on the waiver wire, feel free to save your FAAB money.
Cincy at NE;
Shock AND Awe: Where to begin....NE's pass defense, Welker's knee, Fred Taylor is alive.....just all of it.
I think more than anything....this proves just how valuable Antwan Odom is to the Bengals. Without him as a disruptive pass force/run stopping DE.....the entire defense goes to shit. That allowed Taylor to run, and Brady to pick them apart. Odom will be out for at least 4 games, meaning the Cincy defense is a bad start, and opposing offensive players are good ones. Add the fact that Marvin Lewis stated "ahem....excuse me all NFL defensive coordinator's, especially those on the Patriots that are notorious for taking away our top offensive players....we are going to try to run as much as possible. Please feel free to put 8 guys in the box until we are behind on points." You just had a recipe for disaster.
Fantasy Relevant Notes
I don't know if that NE defense if for real. Once Cincy started to commit to the pass....they didn't do much to stop it. Without those turnovers (more of a result of it being week 1 as opposed to actual defensive talent) we wouldn't be talking about them right now.
That said.....OchoCinco's points were in garbage time. The first half, Shipley was leaned on heavily. Shipley has the best hands on that team, and it looks like Palmer knows it. You may want to give him a strong look starting week 3.
I still think the RB to own in NE is Maroney.
Let's be cautious with Welker. I like the fact that he got 8 grabs. I like the fact they looked for him in the endzone. But the old Wes Welker would have turned those 8 grabs into 100 yards....this new one just got 60. Cincy worked hard to keep Moss out of the game, and did a good job. But that gave Welker alot of space to work with, and he didn't do as much with it as he should have......
NE tight ends are awesome. I love them all. But you want Hernandez, not Gronkowski. One look all day. Yes it was in the endzone....but it shows who Bellicheck trusts more. That said..... you want Jermaine Gresham over either of them. 6 grabs and a TD .... I'm becoming a believer.
A note to Cleveland: I was hoping you could do us all a favor. In week 9, you play the Patriots. Now....you're probably not going to have a great season. There's a chance Mangini is done anyway. Mangini and Belicheck don't really get along. There's some potential here for Belicheck to do his "I'm going to throw relentlessly so people say Tom Brady is one of the best QB's in history, even though his greatest seasons are about stat-padding, and he doesn't have the Manning-like-class to take a knee." If that's the case......could you please, please, please line up 11 guys at the line of scrimmage and spend every down trying to physically end Brady's professional career? Please? We would all love for you to do it. The nation would really get behind you. You may actually increase attendance after that. There's nothing for you to lose, and everything for you to gain.
Carolina v. NYG:
Shock: Not much shocking about this. Maybe that the Panthers were in this game at all for awhile.
This just kind of tells me that maybe NYG defense isn't all that great. They're healthy again....so I'm blaming the new coordinator. I know they won, but it may be a long year in the NFC East for the NY Football Giants. I'm not writing them off....they looked as good as anyone to win the division....but keep an eye on that defense.
Awe: Carolina's D is that bad.
I know they forced a couple of INT's early.......but once Eli found his rhythm....game over.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Nothing you didn't know. Bradshaw is the man. Jacobs can be cut. After bouncing back from 2 INT's, Eli Manning showed why he should have another solid season. Great offensive adjustments allowed Nicks to go buck-wild. Other weeks it will be Manningham. Steve Smith is a possession guy, not a HR guy. Read: 800 yards, 4 TD's. Not what you signed up for.
There is one point of interest.......because that Carlina D is as bad as I thought they would be.....they may have to consistently abandon the run a little bit quicker. I've been waiting for Dwayne Jarrett....this might be the year. Also....it's interesting to note that LaFell was targeted about as much as Steve Smith. It will be interesting to see who Clausen targets when Moore hits the bench in week 7 for good. I've spoken about both before, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jarrett/LaFell showed some fantasy football playoff value.
Atlanta v. Pittsburgh;
Shock: Pittsburgh won.
Matt Ryan! Mike Turner! C'mon buddy.....you're making me look bad here. Short of Roddy White's 100+ yards...this offense was completely shut down.
Awe: That Pitt D is better than I thought.
It's not just that Pitt won without Big Ben...it's how they truly stifled what I believe to be a very good team. Honestly....there was alot of shock here. I know it's the Steelers defense, but.....let's go guys. There were just no bright spots on the Atlanta offense. I refuse to believe this will be a pattern. The entire team is not that bad........which means the Steeler's D really is that good. I think you may be looking at the Division Champs. It will be interesting to see how C. Johnson and company fare next week.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Harry Douglas was targeted more than Tony Gonzalez. That will continue. As an explosive slot receiver, I expect a breakout year from Douglas. Downgrade Gonzalez.
Mendenhall needed overtime to have a productive game. I've said all preseason he's a guy to avoid. He got 22 carries, Redman got 6. Expect that to turn into 15-10 as the season progresses with Redman officially getting goal line duties by week 6. Trade Mendenhall now if you can get early second round value for him.
Trust me....Atlanta is better than this. Bench...well...everyone against the Steelers. I know you have to start your Johnson's and your Rice's....but leave your Benson's, Cadillac's, and anyone else on the bench.
Cleveland v. Tampa Bay:
Shock: No Huggins....anywhere.
Keeping him on the bench is a mistake. And only 75 rushing yards out of Cadillac against Cleveland? 23 in the air? Earnest Graham with 6 carries? Only 30 yards for Mike Williams? None of this makes sense. That just looks like a very conservative coach trying to not make mistakes as opposed to winning the game. My expectations for Tampa are falling. But they're still better than the Panthers.
Awe: Jake Delholme had a reasonable game.
Don't expect that to continue. And don't get overly hyped on Massaquoi just yet. 9 out of 10 times, that TD pass that was thrown gets picked as opposed to perfectly threading the needle.
Fantasy Relevant Notes;
Freeman had 2 runs for 33 yards. His feet may give him value as the season wears on.
I don't know what to make of the Peyton Hillis situation.....but after his fumbles, I don't expect him to be as large a factor going forward. That said....I don't like Harrison all that much anymore either.
Mike Williams still had 5 grabs. Some weeks that will be 30 yards, but I think more often it will be 60. As the offense progresses, he may be Tampa's biggest threat.
Huggins is to good for this kind of treatment. Keep him on your bench. If you can afford to lose your flex RB temporarily, trade Cadillac. 3.4 YPC is just not that impressive. Tampa got lucky against Cleveland thanks to Hillis's inability to hold onto the ball. If they want another win this season, drastic changes will be made, and I think M.Williams and Huggins will be the major beneficiaries.
Oakland at Tennesee
Shock: Vince Young looked pretty good.
Don't put it all on a bad Raider's D. That D is still strong against the pass. Tennesee used the pass to set up the run, and I expect that to continue. There will be more games where Tennesses' Defense actually allows a score here or there, forcing a little more passing from Young. He has value, and so does Nate Washington.
Awe: Darren McFadden?
That's some pretty good overall numbers. Granted...most were in garbage time, but he was effective against Tennessee. Campbell on the other hand was 22 for 37, with 4 sacks. Not a great day. I still think this is a much improved Oakland team.....but they really didn't show it this week.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Outside of Washington, nobody really mattered in the Titan's passing game. That will change, and I like them to rotate who will be the lone weekly beneficiary of Young's attention. Expect them to keep it down to 2 reads depending on the other teams weakness.
Johnson is already off pace for 2500 yards. Sorry Chris, maybe when we go to 18 games.
Campbell....ugh....I just don't know. I still like Zach Miller and Louis Murphy though. I think if Mike Bush was there, the running game would have gotten more attention than it did, and the passing game would have been alot better. Downgrade Bush and McFadden, upgrade Miller and Murphy for week 2.
Green Bay at Philly:
Shock: Mike Vick
Okay....if you don't know he's coming, he will kill your gameplan, but that performance was tasty. However if you do know he's coming.....that will be a different story. If you were Andy Reid...would you let anyone think he may start? No. That makes neither QB a good start for the next couple weeks.
Awe: 31 pass attempts.....32 rushing attempts.
Expect to see that all season out of Green Bay. I don't care who is hurt.....they will run whenever possible. Including next week against the Bills.
Fantasy Related Notes:
That Green Bay pass attack is going to be tricky. Rodgers will just hit whoever's open. I think we'll see alot of stats similar to 2009 out of Green Bay, with the exception of a better ground game. That means alot of very good, not great results.
DeSean Jackson is still hurting. He just couldn't get open, and didn't really display any moves or explosiveness. It may be a couple weeks, and with Vick taking some snaps...
The entire Philly situation just got reeeaaaallllll fuzzy. McCoy will be okay every week, but never great as the only guy that will get more than 9 carries is named Vick. Maclin's about the only guy I think may be a regular start.
The Philly D is a takeaway kinda D that will continually progress as the season goes on, but you can pass on them. The Green Bay D looks like you can pass on them.....again. Adjust lineups accordingly.
AZ at St. Louis:
Shock: Mark Clayton
Is it time for him? Well....maybe. Obviously there was no gameplan for him...but...damn. Either way, make sure every receiver you have against Arizona is in your starting lineup.
Awe: Cardinals Suck. Bad.
If you can't score on St. Louis.....you're just not scoring. Beanie Wells, Schmeenie Wells....I don't care who's hurt...this whole team was irrelevant.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Stephen Jackson still couldn't get into the endzone. Looks like another 4 TD season.
Bradford with 50+ throws? Even after 3 INT's? It looks like the thought in St. Louis is that they understand they won't be that good, but they are going to develop there QB if it kills them. Which it just may. If teams keep stacking 9 in the box (which they will) then the Rams are going to keep throwing, and throwing, and throwing.....regardless of how effective it is. That defense won't protect too many leads, so I expect some good games from that WR corp. As the season progresses....so will their timing.
Mark Clayton got the gawdy numbers, but.....Danny Amendola....not too shabby. As the season goes on, I really like him for redzone looks. He's not big, but he is quick with great hands.
The one St. Louis WR I still can't back is Laurent Robinson. He's nothing but a deep ball threat....which means he'll be maddeningly inconsistent. Sooner or later Gilyard will get on that field, and it will be interesting to see who he steals targets from....but Laurent looks a prime target.
As long as Wells is hurt, you can start Hightower. But once he gets back, all Cardinals are useless. You have to start Fitzgerald...but don't rely on any of the rest of this crew for more than an emergency flex.
San Fran v. Seattle
Shock: Frank Gore's lack of productivity.
It's not like Gore gave you nothing...but......2.2 YPC? If you read my last column, I gave you reasons why I thought that Seattle D was better than you think. But there's not many defenses in the NFL that should be holding Gore to 2.2 YPC. It's not like he didn't get touches....he ran 17 times. His longest was 10 yards. That means the other 16 combined for 28 yards. Yikes. It takes alot for that to happen. Bad offensive planning, an inability to throw, a line that may not be as good as we thought they were supposed to be, and....a potential injury. This is not a buy low opportunity for Gore. This is a warning shot.
Awe: Can a whole team be that overrated?
I mean...I know the answer to that is yes....but walking into this season I don't think there are many guys that didn't think Gore would be a top 10 RB, Davis was going to be a top 3 TE, and Crabtree would be a solid #2 receiver that could be a number 1. You didn't draft Smith to start...but you thought he may have some trade value at least, and could potentially crack the top 12 against that soft schedule.
I get that this was basically a preseason game for Smith and Crabtree. Davis hasn't seen the field much either. It takes some time to develop that timing....but it's not like they didn't play together for the last 5 games of 2009. They should have showed....just...something. Anything. But they didn't.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Mike Williams got the majority of targets for Seattle. He's for real. If he's available, scoop him up. I know Brandon Jackson is the priority, but based on Seattle's schedule, I want Williams more than Lloyd, Clayton, or any other popular Waiver Wire claims this week.
Seattle didn't have alot of time on the field. They ran the ball 23 times, and threw 21. That's not a large sample size. I would add on 7 more tosses and 5 more rushes most games. When you extrapolate those numbers, a few guys look to have reasonable flex value week in and week out.
There is noone I hate more in fantasy football than Julius Jones right now. His 8 carries are inexcusable. I understand the concept of RBBC, but it's not like Jones compliments this group. He just steals carries. I get wanting to keep your guys fresh, but I think Forsett can handle more than 9 or 10 touches a game. That said, Forsett was the only RB to make a catch out of the backfield, and he did the most with his opportunity by far. Carroll will go more with the hot hand, and situational backs. There is no situation for Julius Jones. Ever. As the season goes on, I expect more and more use out of him.
I just can't see Crabtree being that bad all season, but it may be awhile before he has real relevance. Short of week 3 against KC....the first 6 games will be rough on him. Just consider him injured for the first half and prioritize a replacement via trade or waiver......like Seattle's Mike Williams.
Dallas v. Washington
Shock: Dez Bryant's targets.
I know the guy is talented. I know Dallas will throw ALOT this year. I posted both those things previously. But given his attitude and injury, I really didn't see him becoming a factor until the schedule eased up around week 8.
I was way wrong.
12 targets....the most of any Cowboy...in week 1. Now, I don't know if it was part of the strategy seeing as Washington may just not expect the rookie to get that many looks, or if it was the mismatch between him and Buchanan, or if Romo just likes him that much....but that's alot of targets.
Part of me thinks that without Columbo, Witten needs to stay back to block more. It certainly seemed that way against the Skins. That will probably hold true in week 2 against Chicago as well, as reinforcements will be called in to contain Julius Peppers. But if Bryant keeps bringing in tough catches like he did against Washington.....Romo's going to look his way all season. He definitely made some rookie mistakes, but overall he got the job done. If I didn't have Miles Austin in every league right now, every single owner that had him would be getting trade offers from me. I have no problem overpaying a little for him, and if I could get him for a guy like Addai, Ricky Williams, or Cadillac....deal. Expect solid WR#2 numbers out of Bryant this season.
Awe: Your seriously using Larry Johnson?
For those of you that followed my advice and picked up Ryan Torain....take heart. LJ put up all of 9 yards on 3 carries.
Now granted, Portis was clearly the primary ball carrier, and Dallas theoretically has a solid run defense. But something has to change here. Portis didn't look much better getting 3.5 ypc. Washington's next two games are against Houston and St. Louis. If Portis and LJ can't improve on his numbers against them....and they won't....then the Skins will look for answers. Torain's the man to target for weeks 5-17.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Jones and Barber had equal carries, with Choice right behind them. You're depending on TD's and big plays for any of these guys to have a relevant fantasy week. That three headed RB approach Dallas whipped out has promise, but for the actual Cowboys, not your fantasy team. I think Barber is your breakout candidate against Chicago. If he racks up a TD or two....trade him immediately.
I thought the lack of an offensive line would help Witten in the redzone. They would be forced to throw on the goal-line, and he would be a primary target. But Bryant creates mismatches himself. So does Austin. Witten's just more valuable as a blocker, and after the way they lost....well....wouldn't you put another guy or two in to defend Romo? I'll be interested to see how many targets he gets in a sure-to-be shootout against Chicago. If it's not an impressive day......grab Maoki from KC, Fasano from Miami, or Cincy's Gresham, and move Witten while he still has some shine on him. Or even better than those options.....
.......the guy that coached Shannon Sharpe and the QB that made LJ Smith a reasonable fantasy option have joined forces to give Chris Cooley 80 yards off 6 receptions. He was Washington's lead receiver. So much for Fred Davis. I know it's early, but Cooley's looking like a top 10 TE.
If Santana Moss didn't drop a pass early in the 4th quarter....he's well over 100 yards and a TD. He's a nice option for a slew of big games.
Romo got through an entire game without an INT. Yes....he should have had one late in the fourth quarter...but overall he was impressive. I've said it before, and I'll say it again...Romo and Austin are the best QB/WR combo for fantasy purposes you could ask for this year. (Not real life....fantasy purposes.)
Baltimore at Jets
Shock: Tomlinson- 11 carries. Greene- 5. WTF?
Was he hurt? Was Sexy Rexy trying to outsmart the Baltimore D? Did they have to pass that much? Someone explain this to me. No...seriously...I would like someone to comment below or email me and tell me what the hell happened here.
Awe: Baltimore's 70 plays from scrimmage.
That's alot of plays. 38 passing, 35 rushing. I think that's how the Ravens would like to play every game, but Flacco needs to step up the way we all thought he would. Otherwise, those 35 rushes can become 45 real quick. And so much for this RBBC...21 carries still went to Rice, with 6 highly ineffective touches to McGahee.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I gotta believe McGahee's officially done. Look to McClain to start getting goal line looks.
Mark Sanchez is still not a good QB. That means Cotchery, Holmes, and B. Edwards will not be good WR's.
Was that a Todd Heap sighting? 72 yards including a long 35 yard reception. Think what this guy might have done if he didn't spend his career in a body cast.
I know the Jets are a good defense...but I think you can safely cut Mason. Boldin hauled in 110 yards, and while Housh only had 1 reception, it was a big one. There just won't be enough balls to go around until Boldin goes out for 3 games with a shattered femur. Yes Boldin...you are that tough where a shattered femur would only keep you out for 3 games. You are the toughest constantly injured guy I know.
Jets fans......I feel kinda bad for you. It's time for everyone to pile on about how you were never really that good anyway. But to be honest...you were supposed to lose to Baltimore. Baltimore is an excellent team. Honestly.....you played very well against a team that has ALOT of offensive talent. Your defense is for real. You know who's not an excellent team? Cincinatti without Antwan Odom. I'm really looking forward to your game next week. Please feel free to hammer Brady's knee repeatedly. I don't own him in any fantasy leagues, and he's a smug a-hole. There's a reason someone hit him with their car.
San Diego at KC
Shock: 19 Carries, 75 Yards, 1 Fumble.
That was Ryan Mathews stat line. Against the Chiefs. The ones in Kansas City. If they had to pass all night, I would understand....but 19 carries is 19 carries. This isn't the Minnesota Defense....it's Kansas City. Mathews is officially a very strong #2 RB because of the amount of carries he'll receive, but I'm thinking my preseason statement of 1200 yards, and 6-8 TD's may hold up.
Awe: Kansas City Defense?
Overall, Phillips had a solid fantasy game. So did Gates, and Mathews, and Naanee just blew up. But....Phillips still only completed 56% of his passes. I mean he tossed that ball 39 times to get a little under 300 yards.
I don't think it's Phillips. And don't even start with Vincent Jackson comments. I think that given the special teams ability of KC.....and the fact that they held a pretty good offense to 14 points....you may want to consider picking them up if you have some roster space. Especially if you had a late pick of Miami or Arizona for your defense.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Lots of interesting TE's out there after week one. Please, please please stay away from Mercedes Lewis. I've already spoken about Gresham, Cooley, Heap, and anyone from NE, but the guy I personally am targeting in all of my leagues is Maoki. KC didn't throw that much, and they probably never will, but he still led the team in receptions and got a redzone look. He's for real.
Naanee........nice game. He started the year stating that this season would dictate decisions about his future in the NFL. Looking like a bright future. I still like Pat Creighton to become more of a factor, but this won't be Naanee's last relevant game. However most importantly....you now have to pay attention to Naanee, and double up Gates. I'm seeing an increase in Floyd's value being the ultimate result.
It's not like San Diego is going to run that much. Yes....Turner likes to run, and I know they had to pass frequently to catch up....but this is Rivers team. I think Mathews tops out at 25 moderately effective carries a game, and the real points come through the air.
The KC running backs split 11 carries each. Remember in 07 when Marion Barber and Julius Jones split carries? J.Jones was the "starter" but maybe a low-end flex option at best, and Barber was a top 10 option because of his touchdown production and penchant for big games? You see where I'm going here? Next time Charles has a bad game because Jones takes his endzone opportunity, put in that trade offer.
That said......my "waiver wire wonders" were way off. Good thing you didn't listen to me. Don't feel bad. I didn't either. The fact is, during week 1 coaches are all too willing to stick with their stars and see what they have. Guys like Lance Ball will take some time to earn their carries. That said, week one wasn't all vanilla. There were some interesting things to put in that notebook.
Minny v. New Orleans:
Shock: Saints Defense.
Minnesota made New Orleans offense look a little worse than it is, and their defense a little better than it is. But even after that tough game I'm expecting a decline on both over the season. For some reason, Minny stopped running.......AP was just getting started. AP owners better not hope this is a trend.
Awe: QB Inefficacy
Here's the deal with Favre......everyone forgets the first 4 weeks of the season in 2009, he was...well....good, not great. By the end of week 4 you were glad you had him as your backup. By the end of week 8 you were trying to trade for him desperately because you put all your fantasy hopes on Jay Cutler. Now I hate Favre, and I know he has a bad ankle, but he's just not going to be that bad. Minny's next two games have Miami and Detroit coming to town before their bye week. They then have a hell like schedule....but you would rather pass against NJ, Dallas, Green Bay and New England than run. He may not be a top 5 QB, but if you drafted him as a starter, don't freak out just yet. You can't trade him for value, so you're pretty much stuck with him. Get a solid backup....Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco may be on the block for cheap after week 1, and they should serve you well over the next couple of weeks until Favre gets his timing.
Drew Brees: Good amount of attempts (36), and a high completion percentage (75%) and an excellent overall QB rating (101). And through all of that.........237 yards, 1 TD. It's not his ability...it's how defenses will play the Saints. Welcome to your 2010 version of Drew Brees. Great QB in real life........but the fantasy numbers won't be as strong as the past 3 years. Trade him now.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
This is not Reggie Bush's breakout year. He's going to do what he always does, and that's not changing. That said, don't be overly sold on Pierre Thomas. Yes....he was a workhorse back, but he wasn't overly impressive, and Ivory was hurt. I still love Ivory as a change of pace back, and a real chance to shine in week 4 against Carolina.
Feel free to cut Bernard Berrian, and try to get Camarillo if you haven't already. Saints WR's will be frustrating to own due to inconsistency. This is no longer a situation where 2-3 guys can still post high numbers. They will take turns doing so, and wreak havoc on your decision making.
Miami at Buffallo:
Shock: Buffallo threw....alot.
The real shock here.............CJ Spiller got nothing, and did little with what he did get. Here's my breakdown of the Chan Gailey era to date:
"I have a couple of solid running backs and an MLB that can tackle when he's healthy. So what I'll do in the draft is simply reinforce those positions instead of getting someone to hold down one of the other 20 positions that are problem areas for my team. Then....after drafting these guys....I'll make them irrelevant in my gameplanning cause I'm Chan Fucking Gailey, and if I wanna pass the ball, I'm gonna pass the damn ball."
So essentially.......there are absolutely no relevant fantasy players on Buffallo. None. Don't even pick up their defense. And I'm sure if you grabbed their kicker as a bye week fill in, he will find a way to make fantasy history by scoring negative points.
Awe: How Bad Miami is going to be.
Not surprised by anything Miami did. After watching a full preseason of Chad Henne, Bill Parcells effectively apologized to Dolphin fans, and said "I want no responsibility for this whatsoever." Sorry Brandon Marshall owners, but things may get better. I apologize if you picked up Hartline after my recommendation last week. 2 drops...0 catches.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Miami had 6 passes dropped. That's a ton. Expect Anthony Fasano to become a very relevant fantasy TE based on the fact he can hold onto the ball. He and Marshall should combine for 90% of all non-running back receptions going forward. As far as Marshall goes...has anyone ever caught 100 balls and not gotten 1000 yards in a season? He may be the first.
Detroit at Chicago:
Shock: The Ref's made it out alive. Nuff said.
Awe: Without Forte's numbers......Cutler's don't look great either.
This is more of a comment on Detroit's defense than Cutler. At this point in the year, Defenses are generally better than offenses that are still trying to find their rhythm. The Bears clearly need more time to get that rhythm, but they did a good job of finding some weak spots and attacking them as the game progressed. This tells me that Cutler will put up better than Kitna numbers, and the WR's will take turns having breakout games. It also tells me that Detroit's D is good enough to give Kolb, and Favre a rough time over the next couple of weeks.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Forte's value will be in the passing game this year. It has less to do with the fact that he didn't run that well against Detroit, and more to do with the fact that he only got 17 carries against them. With Philly, Minny, and Green Bay coming up over the next three weeks......we may see Chester Taylor get his shots against Carolina and Seattle on the ground. This doesn't mean you should grab Taylor....it means that neither will have much value.
Either Chicago's run D is that good....or Best isn't that impressive. I think it's a little bit of column A, little bit of column B. Yeah...I know...2 TD's. But a 1.4 YPC average doesn't bode well for the rookie. He's a big play machine that got boxed in by Chicago. He'll be fine, but his value will be more closely linked to Stafford than Megatron's will be. Either way Johnson will get his looks....it's just how many defenders each of them have to face every game.
Aromashodu will be the most consistent producer for Chicago, so he's your #3 WR. I expect Knox to have value...like against Dallas next week....but it's situational. Bad safety's? Start Knox. Good safety's? Bench him. Good bye-week fill in to have on your roster.
Calvin Johson will be receiving alot of late game TD bomb attempts, and will never brace his fall with the football again. If you drafted him....enjoy. Given how often Detroit ran inside the 20, expect him to be the only Detroit receiver with any value, including the TE's.
Indy v. Houston;
Shock: Houston's completely comfortable running alllllllll day.
It doesn't shock me that Houston won. It doesn't shock me that Foster had a great game. It did shock me as to HOW great a game he had. I know Indy has a crap run D, and Foster is talented.....but with Schaub, Johnson, Jones, and Owens, I expected more passing. Foster just took the reigns and didn't let go. Give Kubiak alot of credit for attacking the opponents weakest point relentlessly. I don't expect that to be every week.... but this offense is legit. That means some weeks, Foster will be huge, and some weeks that pass offense will be huge.
Awe: Indy sucks....except Austin Collie:
I said they wouldn't win the division, but....wow. Completely exposed. I'm sure they game planned for a heavy pass attack, but.....they couldn't stop anything. Peyton Manning did everything a man could do to win. 450 yards on 57 attempts is as much as you can ask for. But that defense was a friggin siv. Good luck with MJD, Moreno, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson, and the NFC East on the schedule.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I know Manning and Collie had a repertoire... but....damn. The guy didn't even give Garcon or Gonzalez a passing glance when they were on the field. Trade Garcon now, and cut Gonzalez.
Jacoby Jones saw his share of end-zone looks. Trade for the big, talented WR now before he starts his 8 TD run. Owen Daniels just dropped in relevance......along with Andre Johnson.
That Houston D wasn't exactly good. Their offense will force teams to air it out. Every QB they face is a prime contender to be the weeks highest scoring fantasy player.
Denver at Jacksonville;
Shock: A QB shootout?
I think Orton and Garrard are safe matchup guys. This changed nothing in my opinion of them. But I will start opposing QB's and WR's with confidence against both squad's. C'mon Jags....you're better than this.
Awe: Really? Really? A QB shootout?
Explanation for the thunder delay.....in a goal line situation, while playing in Florida, Denver did not insert Tim Tebow at QB. When you go against nature like that, it will respond with wrath. But more importantly it shows that both head coaches are just fine using their starting QB's all season, and taking what the opposing defenses give them.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Apparently, both defenses are willing to give the slot receiver plenty of cushion. TE's against Denver, and slot receivers against Jacksonville have become must starts.
No sign of Lance Ball, even with a hurting Moreno and Buckhalter. 75% of the runs went to Moreno. I'm thinking that remains the case until he gets hurt again. He has Seattle and Indy over the next couple weeks....you may want to check on his availability after a 60 yard output. That number should increase.
With a bunch of easy run defenses coming up on the schedule....don't be so quick to grab Eddie Royal. If you have him, now's a great time to dangle him. Even if he racks up some yards between the 20's, his endzone looks will be rare. I say the same for the constantly overtaughted Mercedes Lewis. He has a game or two like this ever year, and then fades away. Trade him now, and if he's on the waiver wire, feel free to save your FAAB money.
Cincy at NE;
Shock AND Awe: Where to begin....NE's pass defense, Welker's knee, Fred Taylor is alive.....just all of it.
I think more than anything....this proves just how valuable Antwan Odom is to the Bengals. Without him as a disruptive pass force/run stopping DE.....the entire defense goes to shit. That allowed Taylor to run, and Brady to pick them apart. Odom will be out for at least 4 games, meaning the Cincy defense is a bad start, and opposing offensive players are good ones. Add the fact that Marvin Lewis stated "ahem....excuse me all NFL defensive coordinator's, especially those on the Patriots that are notorious for taking away our top offensive players....we are going to try to run as much as possible. Please feel free to put 8 guys in the box until we are behind on points." You just had a recipe for disaster.
Fantasy Relevant Notes
I don't know if that NE defense if for real. Once Cincy started to commit to the pass....they didn't do much to stop it. Without those turnovers (more of a result of it being week 1 as opposed to actual defensive talent) we wouldn't be talking about them right now.
That said.....OchoCinco's points were in garbage time. The first half, Shipley was leaned on heavily. Shipley has the best hands on that team, and it looks like Palmer knows it. You may want to give him a strong look starting week 3.
I still think the RB to own in NE is Maroney.
Let's be cautious with Welker. I like the fact that he got 8 grabs. I like the fact they looked for him in the endzone. But the old Wes Welker would have turned those 8 grabs into 100 yards....this new one just got 60. Cincy worked hard to keep Moss out of the game, and did a good job. But that gave Welker alot of space to work with, and he didn't do as much with it as he should have......
NE tight ends are awesome. I love them all. But you want Hernandez, not Gronkowski. One look all day. Yes it was in the endzone....but it shows who Bellicheck trusts more. That said..... you want Jermaine Gresham over either of them. 6 grabs and a TD .... I'm becoming a believer.
A note to Cleveland: I was hoping you could do us all a favor. In week 9, you play the Patriots. Now....you're probably not going to have a great season. There's a chance Mangini is done anyway. Mangini and Belicheck don't really get along. There's some potential here for Belicheck to do his "I'm going to throw relentlessly so people say Tom Brady is one of the best QB's in history, even though his greatest seasons are about stat-padding, and he doesn't have the Manning-like-class to take a knee." If that's the case......could you please, please, please line up 11 guys at the line of scrimmage and spend every down trying to physically end Brady's professional career? Please? We would all love for you to do it. The nation would really get behind you. You may actually increase attendance after that. There's nothing for you to lose, and everything for you to gain.
Carolina v. NYG:
Shock: Not much shocking about this. Maybe that the Panthers were in this game at all for awhile.
This just kind of tells me that maybe NYG defense isn't all that great. They're healthy again....so I'm blaming the new coordinator. I know they won, but it may be a long year in the NFC East for the NY Football Giants. I'm not writing them off....they looked as good as anyone to win the division....but keep an eye on that defense.
Awe: Carolina's D is that bad.
I know they forced a couple of INT's early.......but once Eli found his rhythm....game over.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Nothing you didn't know. Bradshaw is the man. Jacobs can be cut. After bouncing back from 2 INT's, Eli Manning showed why he should have another solid season. Great offensive adjustments allowed Nicks to go buck-wild. Other weeks it will be Manningham. Steve Smith is a possession guy, not a HR guy. Read: 800 yards, 4 TD's. Not what you signed up for.
There is one point of interest.......because that Carlina D is as bad as I thought they would be.....they may have to consistently abandon the run a little bit quicker. I've been waiting for Dwayne Jarrett....this might be the year. Also....it's interesting to note that LaFell was targeted about as much as Steve Smith. It will be interesting to see who Clausen targets when Moore hits the bench in week 7 for good. I've spoken about both before, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jarrett/LaFell showed some fantasy football playoff value.
Atlanta v. Pittsburgh;
Shock: Pittsburgh won.
Matt Ryan! Mike Turner! C'mon buddy.....you're making me look bad here. Short of Roddy White's 100+ yards...this offense was completely shut down.
Awe: That Pitt D is better than I thought.
It's not just that Pitt won without Big Ben...it's how they truly stifled what I believe to be a very good team. Honestly....there was alot of shock here. I know it's the Steelers defense, but.....let's go guys. There were just no bright spots on the Atlanta offense. I refuse to believe this will be a pattern. The entire team is not that bad........which means the Steeler's D really is that good. I think you may be looking at the Division Champs. It will be interesting to see how C. Johnson and company fare next week.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Harry Douglas was targeted more than Tony Gonzalez. That will continue. As an explosive slot receiver, I expect a breakout year from Douglas. Downgrade Gonzalez.
Mendenhall needed overtime to have a productive game. I've said all preseason he's a guy to avoid. He got 22 carries, Redman got 6. Expect that to turn into 15-10 as the season progresses with Redman officially getting goal line duties by week 6. Trade Mendenhall now if you can get early second round value for him.
Trust me....Atlanta is better than this. Bench...well...everyone against the Steelers. I know you have to start your Johnson's and your Rice's....but leave your Benson's, Cadillac's, and anyone else on the bench.
Cleveland v. Tampa Bay:
Shock: No Huggins....anywhere.
Keeping him on the bench is a mistake. And only 75 rushing yards out of Cadillac against Cleveland? 23 in the air? Earnest Graham with 6 carries? Only 30 yards for Mike Williams? None of this makes sense. That just looks like a very conservative coach trying to not make mistakes as opposed to winning the game. My expectations for Tampa are falling. But they're still better than the Panthers.
Awe: Jake Delholme had a reasonable game.
Don't expect that to continue. And don't get overly hyped on Massaquoi just yet. 9 out of 10 times, that TD pass that was thrown gets picked as opposed to perfectly threading the needle.
Fantasy Relevant Notes;
Freeman had 2 runs for 33 yards. His feet may give him value as the season wears on.
I don't know what to make of the Peyton Hillis situation.....but after his fumbles, I don't expect him to be as large a factor going forward. That said....I don't like Harrison all that much anymore either.
Mike Williams still had 5 grabs. Some weeks that will be 30 yards, but I think more often it will be 60. As the offense progresses, he may be Tampa's biggest threat.
Huggins is to good for this kind of treatment. Keep him on your bench. If you can afford to lose your flex RB temporarily, trade Cadillac. 3.4 YPC is just not that impressive. Tampa got lucky against Cleveland thanks to Hillis's inability to hold onto the ball. If they want another win this season, drastic changes will be made, and I think M.Williams and Huggins will be the major beneficiaries.
Oakland at Tennesee
Shock: Vince Young looked pretty good.
Don't put it all on a bad Raider's D. That D is still strong against the pass. Tennesee used the pass to set up the run, and I expect that to continue. There will be more games where Tennesses' Defense actually allows a score here or there, forcing a little more passing from Young. He has value, and so does Nate Washington.
Awe: Darren McFadden?
That's some pretty good overall numbers. Granted...most were in garbage time, but he was effective against Tennessee. Campbell on the other hand was 22 for 37, with 4 sacks. Not a great day. I still think this is a much improved Oakland team.....but they really didn't show it this week.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Outside of Washington, nobody really mattered in the Titan's passing game. That will change, and I like them to rotate who will be the lone weekly beneficiary of Young's attention. Expect them to keep it down to 2 reads depending on the other teams weakness.
Johnson is already off pace for 2500 yards. Sorry Chris, maybe when we go to 18 games.
Campbell....ugh....I just don't know. I still like Zach Miller and Louis Murphy though. I think if Mike Bush was there, the running game would have gotten more attention than it did, and the passing game would have been alot better. Downgrade Bush and McFadden, upgrade Miller and Murphy for week 2.
Green Bay at Philly:
Shock: Mike Vick
Okay....if you don't know he's coming, he will kill your gameplan, but that performance was tasty. However if you do know he's coming.....that will be a different story. If you were Andy Reid...would you let anyone think he may start? No. That makes neither QB a good start for the next couple weeks.
Awe: 31 pass attempts.....32 rushing attempts.
Expect to see that all season out of Green Bay. I don't care who is hurt.....they will run whenever possible. Including next week against the Bills.
Fantasy Related Notes:
That Green Bay pass attack is going to be tricky. Rodgers will just hit whoever's open. I think we'll see alot of stats similar to 2009 out of Green Bay, with the exception of a better ground game. That means alot of very good, not great results.
DeSean Jackson is still hurting. He just couldn't get open, and didn't really display any moves or explosiveness. It may be a couple weeks, and with Vick taking some snaps...
The entire Philly situation just got reeeaaaallllll fuzzy. McCoy will be okay every week, but never great as the only guy that will get more than 9 carries is named Vick. Maclin's about the only guy I think may be a regular start.
The Philly D is a takeaway kinda D that will continually progress as the season goes on, but you can pass on them. The Green Bay D looks like you can pass on them.....again. Adjust lineups accordingly.
AZ at St. Louis:
Shock: Mark Clayton
Is it time for him? Well....maybe. Obviously there was no gameplan for him...but...damn. Either way, make sure every receiver you have against Arizona is in your starting lineup.
Awe: Cardinals Suck. Bad.
If you can't score on St. Louis.....you're just not scoring. Beanie Wells, Schmeenie Wells....I don't care who's hurt...this whole team was irrelevant.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Stephen Jackson still couldn't get into the endzone. Looks like another 4 TD season.
Bradford with 50+ throws? Even after 3 INT's? It looks like the thought in St. Louis is that they understand they won't be that good, but they are going to develop there QB if it kills them. Which it just may. If teams keep stacking 9 in the box (which they will) then the Rams are going to keep throwing, and throwing, and throwing.....regardless of how effective it is. That defense won't protect too many leads, so I expect some good games from that WR corp. As the season progresses....so will their timing.
Mark Clayton got the gawdy numbers, but.....Danny Amendola....not too shabby. As the season goes on, I really like him for redzone looks. He's not big, but he is quick with great hands.
The one St. Louis WR I still can't back is Laurent Robinson. He's nothing but a deep ball threat....which means he'll be maddeningly inconsistent. Sooner or later Gilyard will get on that field, and it will be interesting to see who he steals targets from....but Laurent looks a prime target.
As long as Wells is hurt, you can start Hightower. But once he gets back, all Cardinals are useless. You have to start Fitzgerald...but don't rely on any of the rest of this crew for more than an emergency flex.
San Fran v. Seattle
Shock: Frank Gore's lack of productivity.
It's not like Gore gave you nothing...but......2.2 YPC? If you read my last column, I gave you reasons why I thought that Seattle D was better than you think. But there's not many defenses in the NFL that should be holding Gore to 2.2 YPC. It's not like he didn't get touches....he ran 17 times. His longest was 10 yards. That means the other 16 combined for 28 yards. Yikes. It takes alot for that to happen. Bad offensive planning, an inability to throw, a line that may not be as good as we thought they were supposed to be, and....a potential injury. This is not a buy low opportunity for Gore. This is a warning shot.
Awe: Can a whole team be that overrated?
I mean...I know the answer to that is yes....but walking into this season I don't think there are many guys that didn't think Gore would be a top 10 RB, Davis was going to be a top 3 TE, and Crabtree would be a solid #2 receiver that could be a number 1. You didn't draft Smith to start...but you thought he may have some trade value at least, and could potentially crack the top 12 against that soft schedule.
I get that this was basically a preseason game for Smith and Crabtree. Davis hasn't seen the field much either. It takes some time to develop that timing....but it's not like they didn't play together for the last 5 games of 2009. They should have showed....just...something. Anything. But they didn't.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Mike Williams got the majority of targets for Seattle. He's for real. If he's available, scoop him up. I know Brandon Jackson is the priority, but based on Seattle's schedule, I want Williams more than Lloyd, Clayton, or any other popular Waiver Wire claims this week.
Seattle didn't have alot of time on the field. They ran the ball 23 times, and threw 21. That's not a large sample size. I would add on 7 more tosses and 5 more rushes most games. When you extrapolate those numbers, a few guys look to have reasonable flex value week in and week out.
There is noone I hate more in fantasy football than Julius Jones right now. His 8 carries are inexcusable. I understand the concept of RBBC, but it's not like Jones compliments this group. He just steals carries. I get wanting to keep your guys fresh, but I think Forsett can handle more than 9 or 10 touches a game. That said, Forsett was the only RB to make a catch out of the backfield, and he did the most with his opportunity by far. Carroll will go more with the hot hand, and situational backs. There is no situation for Julius Jones. Ever. As the season goes on, I expect more and more use out of him.
I just can't see Crabtree being that bad all season, but it may be awhile before he has real relevance. Short of week 3 against KC....the first 6 games will be rough on him. Just consider him injured for the first half and prioritize a replacement via trade or waiver......like Seattle's Mike Williams.
Dallas v. Washington
Shock: Dez Bryant's targets.
I know the guy is talented. I know Dallas will throw ALOT this year. I posted both those things previously. But given his attitude and injury, I really didn't see him becoming a factor until the schedule eased up around week 8.
I was way wrong.
12 targets....the most of any Cowboy...in week 1. Now, I don't know if it was part of the strategy seeing as Washington may just not expect the rookie to get that many looks, or if it was the mismatch between him and Buchanan, or if Romo just likes him that much....but that's alot of targets.
Part of me thinks that without Columbo, Witten needs to stay back to block more. It certainly seemed that way against the Skins. That will probably hold true in week 2 against Chicago as well, as reinforcements will be called in to contain Julius Peppers. But if Bryant keeps bringing in tough catches like he did against Washington.....Romo's going to look his way all season. He definitely made some rookie mistakes, but overall he got the job done. If I didn't have Miles Austin in every league right now, every single owner that had him would be getting trade offers from me. I have no problem overpaying a little for him, and if I could get him for a guy like Addai, Ricky Williams, or Cadillac....deal. Expect solid WR#2 numbers out of Bryant this season.
Awe: Your seriously using Larry Johnson?
For those of you that followed my advice and picked up Ryan Torain....take heart. LJ put up all of 9 yards on 3 carries.
Now granted, Portis was clearly the primary ball carrier, and Dallas theoretically has a solid run defense. But something has to change here. Portis didn't look much better getting 3.5 ypc. Washington's next two games are against Houston and St. Louis. If Portis and LJ can't improve on his numbers against them....and they won't....then the Skins will look for answers. Torain's the man to target for weeks 5-17.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Jones and Barber had equal carries, with Choice right behind them. You're depending on TD's and big plays for any of these guys to have a relevant fantasy week. That three headed RB approach Dallas whipped out has promise, but for the actual Cowboys, not your fantasy team. I think Barber is your breakout candidate against Chicago. If he racks up a TD or two....trade him immediately.
I thought the lack of an offensive line would help Witten in the redzone. They would be forced to throw on the goal-line, and he would be a primary target. But Bryant creates mismatches himself. So does Austin. Witten's just more valuable as a blocker, and after the way they lost....well....wouldn't you put another guy or two in to defend Romo? I'll be interested to see how many targets he gets in a sure-to-be shootout against Chicago. If it's not an impressive day......grab Maoki from KC, Fasano from Miami, or Cincy's Gresham, and move Witten while he still has some shine on him. Or even better than those options.....
.......the guy that coached Shannon Sharpe and the QB that made LJ Smith a reasonable fantasy option have joined forces to give Chris Cooley 80 yards off 6 receptions. He was Washington's lead receiver. So much for Fred Davis. I know it's early, but Cooley's looking like a top 10 TE.
If Santana Moss didn't drop a pass early in the 4th quarter....he's well over 100 yards and a TD. He's a nice option for a slew of big games.
Romo got through an entire game without an INT. Yes....he should have had one late in the fourth quarter...but overall he was impressive. I've said it before, and I'll say it again...Romo and Austin are the best QB/WR combo for fantasy purposes you could ask for this year. (Not real life....fantasy purposes.)
Baltimore at Jets
Shock: Tomlinson- 11 carries. Greene- 5. WTF?
Was he hurt? Was Sexy Rexy trying to outsmart the Baltimore D? Did they have to pass that much? Someone explain this to me. No...seriously...I would like someone to comment below or email me and tell me what the hell happened here.
Awe: Baltimore's 70 plays from scrimmage.
That's alot of plays. 38 passing, 35 rushing. I think that's how the Ravens would like to play every game, but Flacco needs to step up the way we all thought he would. Otherwise, those 35 rushes can become 45 real quick. And so much for this RBBC...21 carries still went to Rice, with 6 highly ineffective touches to McGahee.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I gotta believe McGahee's officially done. Look to McClain to start getting goal line looks.
Mark Sanchez is still not a good QB. That means Cotchery, Holmes, and B. Edwards will not be good WR's.
Was that a Todd Heap sighting? 72 yards including a long 35 yard reception. Think what this guy might have done if he didn't spend his career in a body cast.
I know the Jets are a good defense...but I think you can safely cut Mason. Boldin hauled in 110 yards, and while Housh only had 1 reception, it was a big one. There just won't be enough balls to go around until Boldin goes out for 3 games with a shattered femur. Yes Boldin...you are that tough where a shattered femur would only keep you out for 3 games. You are the toughest constantly injured guy I know.
Jets fans......I feel kinda bad for you. It's time for everyone to pile on about how you were never really that good anyway. But to be honest...you were supposed to lose to Baltimore. Baltimore is an excellent team. Honestly.....you played very well against a team that has ALOT of offensive talent. Your defense is for real. You know who's not an excellent team? Cincinatti without Antwan Odom. I'm really looking forward to your game next week. Please feel free to hammer Brady's knee repeatedly. I don't own him in any fantasy leagues, and he's a smug a-hole. There's a reason someone hit him with their car.
San Diego at KC
Shock: 19 Carries, 75 Yards, 1 Fumble.
That was Ryan Mathews stat line. Against the Chiefs. The ones in Kansas City. If they had to pass all night, I would understand....but 19 carries is 19 carries. This isn't the Minnesota Defense....it's Kansas City. Mathews is officially a very strong #2 RB because of the amount of carries he'll receive, but I'm thinking my preseason statement of 1200 yards, and 6-8 TD's may hold up.
Awe: Kansas City Defense?
Overall, Phillips had a solid fantasy game. So did Gates, and Mathews, and Naanee just blew up. But....Phillips still only completed 56% of his passes. I mean he tossed that ball 39 times to get a little under 300 yards.
I don't think it's Phillips. And don't even start with Vincent Jackson comments. I think that given the special teams ability of KC.....and the fact that they held a pretty good offense to 14 points....you may want to consider picking them up if you have some roster space. Especially if you had a late pick of Miami or Arizona for your defense.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Lots of interesting TE's out there after week one. Please, please please stay away from Mercedes Lewis. I've already spoken about Gresham, Cooley, Heap, and anyone from NE, but the guy I personally am targeting in all of my leagues is Maoki. KC didn't throw that much, and they probably never will, but he still led the team in receptions and got a redzone look. He's for real.
Naanee........nice game. He started the year stating that this season would dictate decisions about his future in the NFL. Looking like a bright future. I still like Pat Creighton to become more of a factor, but this won't be Naanee's last relevant game. However most importantly....you now have to pay attention to Naanee, and double up Gates. I'm seeing an increase in Floyd's value being the ultimate result.
It's not like San Diego is going to run that much. Yes....Turner likes to run, and I know they had to pass frequently to catch up....but this is Rivers team. I think Mathews tops out at 25 moderately effective carries a game, and the real points come through the air.
The KC running backs split 11 carries each. Remember in 07 when Marion Barber and Julius Jones split carries? J.Jones was the "starter" but maybe a low-end flex option at best, and Barber was a top 10 option because of his touchdown production and penchant for big games? You see where I'm going here? Next time Charles has a bad game because Jones takes his endzone opportunity, put in that trade offer.
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