So...my previous posts were an attempt to start going team by team. But...I ain't got that kind of time. So here's 20 things you need to know about the NFC South
1) Mark Ingram? Mike Turner? DeAngelo Williams? All good. The best Fantasy Running Back in the AFC South? LeGarrette Blount. The added pass rushers to an already decent defense means they won't miss Talib as much as you'de think. This is a team built for turnovers, which means plenty of clock decimating short yardage play calling...perfect for a chain moving RB like Blount. Add in a young offensive line that should make strides, and you have an incredible value late in round 2, early in round 3. You could do much worse for your #2 back.
2) I personally think there is something about the New Orleans home field conditions that make it impossible for running backs to stay healthy. Remember....the guy that replaces Darren Sproles production when he gets hurt isn't Ingram, Ivory, or Thomas. It's Lance Moore.
3) 42 passes in a pre-season game? 42? Okay...forget what I said about Atlanta previously. A new offensive philosophy, a new deep threat, and a dome friendly schedule means Matt Ryan should officially be no lower than #9 on your draft board...maybe as high as #7.
4) I can't think of a more overrated fantasy QB than Josh Freeman right now. I know it's pre-season, be he's done nothing to show that he's progressed from last year. Look at 2010's schedule. Cake. Look at 2011's. Not cake. He finishes in the bottom half of all QB's.
5) Speaking of last years schedule....take a quick look at Mike Williams game log. Over 60 yards agains Cincy, St. Louis, Carolina, Detroit and Atlanta. So...basically, if you take out Atlanta, he sucked against good teams. Plus I expect Tampa to throw LESS this year. I'm not expecting a repeat of 2010, and for where he's being drafted, you should take a pass.
6) I'm flip-flopping on Turner. The second best RB in the South for Fantasy purposes will be Jason Snelling. Take him late, and just wait for week 4.
7) You tell me when Devery Henderson will have a big game. Seriously. He never has trade value because his big games are too unpredictable, even when Colston takes his obligatory 3 weeks off with whatever injury will plague him in 2011. You can't trust him for spot starts. If you draft him, you are starting him for 13 games, and hoping 6 of them pay off big before you finally cut him out of frustration. I'd rather have Julio Jones at the same draft position.
8) 3 guys to target in round 13-16: Jason Snelling, Greg Olsen, Arelious Benn. Don't give me this Briscoe crap. Benn is too high a draft pick with too much potential to be usurped for a full 2010. He's 6'2", and his speed is a much better compliment to Williams than the slower/handsy Briscoe.
9) I know for the past two seasons we've looked at Steve Smith, and said: "someone has to catch the ball right?" The answer for the last two seasons has been: No. Noone in Carolina has to catch the ball. However, Smith has dropped considerably in the draft. Do I expect 2008 numbers? No. But I don't think it will be 2011 either. As your sifting through the injury risk round 5/6 WR's in your draft because you went QB early....don't forget his name.
10) Anyone that thinks Cam Newton may run enough to be valuable in his rookie season, please take a look at Vince Young's rookie year. Newton is not Vick. The only person that is Vick, is Vick. And maybe Randall Cunningham. Who..coincidentally may be better today than Newton.
11) Speaking of Newton...it's worth noting that D. Anderson has moved to #2 on the depth chart. Don't draft him...but it's worth noting. Especially when considering the aforementioned Steve Smith. (It's good for Smith. Trust me.)
12) Tony Gonzalez is done as a starting fantasy TE. I know they will pass more. It won't be to him.
13) Harry Douglas may be this years Lance Moore.
14) I'm shying away from D'Angelo Williams. The whole NFC South has a very dome heavy schedule. That makes for a ton of RB injuries. I still love Blount because of the lack of tread on those tires and a clear #1 role....but I'm shaky on any other starting RB's.
15) Don't draft J. Stewart. He's still going as a #3 RB...which is too high. But make sure to get him in a trade package later. He's actually healthy, and he'll have some GIANT games this year, and the wisdom of resigning Williams will be heavily questioned.
