I know your plan. I know it, because it's become everyone's fashionable plan. You're going to take two Wide Receivers in the first three rounds. This year, you may go WR, WR one-two.
I can't say I blame you.
After the top 10 or so WR's, you're staring at a couple of Steve Smith's with potential quarterback issues, a never healthy Anquoin Boldin in a new situation, and a notoriously hit and miss Marques Colston. You are understandably hesitant to make any of these guys your #1 WR. After them, you are left to take gambles on Pierre Garcon, Michael Crabtree, and Devin Aramashouda. It's the equivalent of hitting on 16....you don't want to, but the dealer's showing a King, so you have little choice.
Randy Moss's ADP has gone from 14th to 9th in the past few weeks, supplanting Aaron Rodgers. Let me repeat that....he's supplanted Aaron Rodgers. You're taking a guy that will get 1200 yards receiving and 14 TD's ON THE HIGH END over the consensus favorite (not my favorite, but the consensus favorite) to lead your league in total points. Reggie Wayne never makes it past 14, and with Fitzgerald's injury questions, there's a very good chance Miles Austin and Calvin Johnson won't see #20. This isn't necessarily due to the importance of a top #1 WR. It's because owners are looking to go high on a #2. Boldin as your top option? Meh. But as a #2....Shazam!
Essentially, it boils down to #2 WR being the highest risk position on the draft board. You know that some sleepers will break out, but even if you are stuck with inferior RB's and QB's....at least they are safe. Michael Bush is safe. Felix Jones is safe. Kevin Kolb is safe. And they all have upside....so why gamble on a #2 WR?
Again....I can't say I blame you. But you're still a pussy. And you're very, very, very wrong.
The fantasy landscape is about to once again change. 2010 will destroy a tride and true draft day rule.....don't trust rookie WR's. There is sound logic and reason behind this rule, and it's one that generally I have adhered to for years. I have been fine on missing out on the Moss's/Boldin's of the world. And then...in 2008 changes in the NFL were made...and that rule started to become obsolete. I'm not going to brag here, but I drafted DeSean Jackson in about every league I was in. Yes, he came in as a rookie...but he was one with opportunity. He was a speed heavy WR put into the flanker position of a pass heavy offense. Maybe he didn't have his route running down to Michael Irvin levels....but who else was getting that long TD pass? Hank Baskett? The guy can't even catch the hottest "girl next door" much less 8 TD's in a season. I swear, I know 10 women in real life hotter than Kendra. Two lessons came out of the 2008 Eagles.....Chelsea Handler could be a playboy cover girl with a couple of fakies, and Rookie WR's that have an opportunity to best use their specific skill set can end up being solid #2 WR's.
The 2010 NFL draft saw the deepest WR class in recent history. Phenomenal athletes, polished route runners, and guys with hands stickier than your vintage playboy mag were taken unreasonably low due to the influx of talent. There were some undrafted mega-finds out there as well. Add that to the fact that the NFL has become increasingly pass heavy, yet has a severe shortage of quality WR's....and SHAZAM! Ability is meeting opportunity.
Now this does not mean you should be reaching for Golden Tate in round 7 of your draft. Hell....you shouldn't be drafting Golden Tate at all. (Sorry Seahawk fans....but your passing game is going to take some time to develop.) However, there are a ton of late finds out there worth your attention. And with that, I bring you you're 2010 draft guide to rookie WR's.
Guys You Should Definitely Be Drafting;
Mardy Gilyard; St. Louis.
This is an absolutely fantastic scenario. I l-o-v-e love him. At Cincy, he spent 6 months living out of his car waiting out academic ineligibility. That's a tough kid to break. The other guy at the top of this list quit the fucking team, and he probably had a bed to sleep on. Mardy the one man party was deep on the depth chart until Donnie Avery went down for the season. This lithe six footer was a TERRIBLE fit for the slot. But now....now he's a flanker, meaning instead of relying on strength (which he has none of) to beat coverage off the line, he can shake and shimmy his way to 1100 yards and 9 TD's. I know....you're worried about Bradford. And there is great reason to be. But look at it this way.....Bradford won't be able to make NFL reads just yet. That means he'll be looking for one, maybe two options every time he drops back to pass. You know who that first option is?
Gilyard. Bank on it. And look at that schedule....it's screaming breakout passing game. You need to draft Gilyard, because you need him week 1 against AZ when he turns some heads with 6 grabs for 70 yards and Sam Bradford's first ever TD connection with Gilyard. That should be the first of many for years to come.
Mike Williams: Tampa Bay.
Look...you've already read about this kid. He's got a shakey past, but he's worked his ass off in camp, and he's the favorite target of every quarterback on that roster. At 6'2", 220, he's got size. He's got great hands. He has tremendous burst, shimmy and shake, leaving NFL corners holding their jocks after he receives the ball. I hate comparisons to all time greats.....but this guy is Michael Irvin without the prostitutes and drug problems. He'll have plenty of time to fuck up his life later, but this year, he's a fantastic 9th/10th round pick.
Brandon LaFell: Carolina.
Now in all honesty if you HAVE to pick 1 WR in this years draft, it shouldn't be Brandon LaFell. It should be Dwayne Jarret. But noone will draft Jarret, making him FAAB available. Prospect hounds will draft LaFell.
LaFell is in contention for the #2 spot in Carolina, given the oft-injured Jarret a run for his money. He was considered one of the best overall athletes in the draft, but the combine performances (aka...40 times) of a few other prospects ultimately hurt his NFL draft value. That said, any other year he would have been the #1 WR off the board. He's got great hands, plays hurt, and is MORE than willing to grab that ball over the middle. Plus he has decent size (6' 2", 210) and uses it to do a great job of beating smaller cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage. That's the key to succeeding as an X receiver, which is likely where he'll line up most games. Guys like that quickly become favorite targets of young quarterbacks just trying to get that first down. While Carolina is likely going to run, run, run every time they get inside the 20, on the occassions they do pass, I see this kid getting the look. His schedule won't allow him the chance to be a week to week stud, but instead of drafting Mike Sims-Walker in round 6, I'll take LaFell in round 14 for the same production.
Jacoby Ford: Oakland.
Didn't you swear you just put down your beer on the kitchen counter 5 seconds ago? How did it end up in the dining room? No...you're not drunk. It's just Jacoby Ford fucking with you. He ran from Oakland, moved his atoms at super speed allowing him to pass through solid matter, grabbed your beer and moved it, and got back in time to laugh his ass off at you.
I understand that Oakland is chock-fulla burners that can't catch at WR, but this guy makes CJ Spiller look like Mike Alstott. The reports are his 4.28 40 time at the combine doesn't reflect how fast he actually is. He actually has a faster game speed. That's Deion Sanders fast. He doesn't run great routes, which is a problem for me. But with Chaz Schillens hurt, Johnny Lee Higgins sucking, and Derrius Heyward Bay still busy counting his first round signing bonus, he might be a threat out of necessity. He's spent all training camp blowing away a highly underrated Oakland secondary, so he'll get his looks. And that schedule....it's one that makes dreams happen. The first four games are Tennessee, St. Louis, Arizona, and Houston. These are shitty defenses with offenses that force deep throws late in the game. Mmmmmm....tasty.
Save Some FAAB Money For These Guys;
Dez Bryant
Look...I know all the negatives. His speed is being questioned. He has a shitty attitude. He forgot his running shoes preventing him from giving a full work out at the NFL combine.
Think about that.....the major criticisms of this guy are that he may be a flakey, prima-donna malcontent. What top NFL WR is NOT a flakey, prima-donna malcontent? The question is....does he work hard.
Yes. All reports out of the Cowboy camp state that he is a tireless machine full of highlight reel catches. Here's a link for you.
http://mvn.com/2010/07/31/cowboys-wide-receiver-dez-bryant-out-4-6-weeks/
Now Dez will not be useful to you for the first six weeks of the regular season or so. In fact, I strongly believe most owners will get frustrated with him by week 8. That's when you pounce. Right now, he's hurt, and he's out of shape. His injury exacerbates his inability to run 2 plays in a row at full speed. Plus the Dallas O-line will spend the first few weeks getting over their preseason aches and sprains. But he should start showing flashes of ability around week 5 against Tennessee. The real value here starts in week 10. Dallas has a string of NY, Detroit, New Orleans, Indy, Philly, the Redskins....and a beautiful week 16 fantasy championship game matchup against the Cardinals. He'll be playing in the X WR spot by then (Split-end, whatever you want to call it) meaning he'll have some deep slant routes to pair up with some medium length posts. He has the ability to separate from the one guy on opposing defenses NOT covering Miles Austin by that point. You'll want him in your lineup for a string of 75-125 yard games with some over the middle acrobatic catches and 15 yard TD's.
Jason Shipley; Cincinatti
Now, the reason I say Shipley is a FAAB money guy, is because he's likely to play the roll of possession receiver on a run first team with a reasonably tough schedule. Skip him weeks 1 and 2 against NE and Baltimore. But in week 3, I think it's possible that Palmer starts tuning out OchoCinco and Owens, and passes the ball to a guy that can actually catch. The touch matchups actually HELP Shipley's cause, because Cincy is likely to have to throw more than they want, and OchoCinco and TO will be on lock down. They will get their highlight reel grabs, but the real chain mover here is Shipley. Remember Chris Henry when he was healthy? This guy ain't him. Not even close. But he'll get some looks, and haul in the passes when he does.
By the way....while I'm in Cincy....why the fuck are you people considering #85 in round 4, and leaving TO til' round 10? Do you really think OchoCinco is that much better? Do you really think that TO's stats last year were about his ability as opposed to his quarterback? Don't get me wrong....I don't love either of them. But for two guys that will put up similar stats, the discrepancy on the draft board is unforgivable. One of them is over priced, the other is a steal. I leave it to you to figure out which is which.
Demaryius Thomas; Denver.
His injury is keeping him off the must draft list. He may end up requiring further surgery on his foot if it doesn't heal. I actually think that's a likely scenario. However, if it does heal....lets just say that as of today Eddie Royal has a total of 2 preseason catches for 17 yards.
Somebody's gotta catch the ball. Denver will do it's best to run, but with Moreno's hammy....they may find it tough. Plus, that defense is gonna SUUUUUCK without Mike Nolan. They sucked last year, they just beat up on crappy conference cornerbacks. They will be forced to throw, and someone will be forced to catch, and that someone is this 6'3" BEAST of a wideout.
Eric Decker; Denver.
If Brandon Lloyd can't start the season, he moves up to a must draft. I like him more than Thomas. Hands, hands, hands, hands, hands. Great slot potential for this kid. Without a doubt the best hands in the draft. He doesn't have the physical tools that Thomas does, but Denver won't be looking to use him as the deep threat Thomas is. He is cut in the possession receiver mold. He hasn't worked with the first team yet, but he's Quinn's favorite target. Once again....shitty quarterbacks love guys that can catch, and this kid can catch. He's a chain mover with endzone potential. If he gets the nod as the #3 receiver, grab him quick.
Stephen Williams; Arizona.
I've written about Williams before. He is huge. He is fast. He is an undrafted WR with something to prove. He is eating up preseason secondaries, making great adjustments to catch the ball, and beating guys on the outside constantly. It's not hard to think that Breaston, Doucet, and Fitzgerald may miss some games with injury, and when they do.....he will establish a full time job at WR.
Keep Him On The Watch List;
Damian Williams; Tennessee
If you get word he's got a starting job, swoop in and grab him. He is an elite route runner, and while he doesn't have the upside of many Rookie WR's, he is probably the most NFL ready. He'll be an explosive kick returner with unnatural ability and his good hands/speed/understanding of the game make me high on him, but his opportunity is lacking. But if he gets in that Flanker spot that Nate Washington is clogging up....watch out.
Taylor Price; NE.
Right now, all the right things are being said about Price. He's not super fast, (4.4 40) but he's fast enough. He has incredible acceleration, and he's big enough at 6' 210 to beat some guys off the line in the Flanker Spot. He will likely only be the 4th option on the field at any given time, but his position will give him some real matchup advantages against a Man-Zone. Those games....80 yards and a TD.
