The last article referenced the classic "ugly duck" movie concept. You know....where the ugly girl suddenly gets hot and becomes prom queen. First of all....I had to amend my last article to include KC. Not that there's alot of "sleepers", but some of their players are highly undervalued. That said....there's another side to this. In all those movies, you had the girl that was the no-holds-barred hottest bitch in the school that was a SHOE IN for prom queen. This girl....while she remained hot....would eventually lose the title as flaws in her personality were discovered.
Now...I know it's ridiculous to think anyone would care about a female's personality, but there's something to be learned here. There are some NFL teams out there with some serious personality flaws, but because they were the equivalent of the girl in middle school that first got breasts, we look past those flaws and they remain hot by reputation.
Stay away from these teams. Not because their players will suck, but because they are overvalued in your draft. You will not get the results you want out of them. You need a list of these teams? You got it.
The Girl That Was Hot Until She Messed With Someone That Ended Up Being a Teenage Witch: Minnesota Vikings.
I haven't seen so many hip-surgeries and headaches since that judge made me do community service in the old folks home. Favre is calling his coach a pussy, and guys are....well....their Twittering. That's just... not what a football team should be doing. Personally I blame everything on Jared Allen cutting his mohawk for his wedding. Much like Samson, Minnesota is nothing without that hair. (Also...he's down to 4 sacks this year. Why? He got married. Tough to sack a guy after you've been neutered.) I'm not going to spend alot of time on these guys, because you know the issues. Favre made that O-line (especially McKinnie) look better that it was. He will not make it more than three weeks before he officially has to stand perfectly still after the snap in order to keep his ankle attached to his body. This would be good news for Berrian. While he battled injuries all year with his hammy, a clean bill of health will not make Favre stop hating him for being a whiney-not-from-the-south little bitch. And all the sudden, Camarillo is getting drafted as a strong #3 receiver (ADP is skyrocketing after the trade) which makes him overvalued as well. 45th receiver off the board? Sure...maybe. Someone's gotta catch the ball. 30th receiver off the board? Seriously? No.
I know what you're thinking...AP is the exception. Well....kinda. Will he be a top 12 back? Absolutely. But don't bank on the removal of Chester Taylor to help. Taylor came in more for increased pass protection, to catch a few balls, and to give AP an occassional breather. You know who that guy is now? AP. His blocking skills have increased, and he's shown that he can catch. This results in three things: he'll catch more passes, (yeeeeaaaahhh!!!) but this may be the year his injury prone ass finally takes too much of a beating. (Boooo.) Plus, the "change of pace" back is now a between the tackles downhill runner. That means AP will get less carries behind Hutchinson, and more bouncing to the outside, behind the vastly overrated McKinnie. (Booooooooooooooo.) Can he do that? Sure. Is that his game? Not really.
Don't get me wrong....he'll be a great back again this year. But instead of combining the upsides of his 1800 yard/14 TD season, (Including a couple 200+ yard games...not likely to happen regularly) and his 1400 yard/18 TD season, I see him doing more of the reverse with a small yards p/carry average. It's still 1400 yards and 14 TD's, (IF he has 16 games in him...which he does not) but it's not what you're expecting.
Wow....I did spend alot of time on these guys. Ok...next....
The Girl That Was Super Hot And Then She Got Overconfident, Dropped Her Boyfriend, Who Started Dating A New Girl That Became EVEN HOTTER!: Indianapolis Colts;
I know....this is heresey. How dare I question the great Peyton Manning and his "best quarterback of all time" title. But just like the St. Louis Rams gave way to age and injury, the Colts run is about to hit a road bump. I am staying away from every Colt on the draft board, save maybe Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown.
The entire offensive line is injured. All of 'em. Now, many "should" be back for the regular season...but they are hurting man. Hurting. None more significant than Jeff Saturday. If Peyton Manning is the CEO of the Colts offense, then Saturday is it's chief operations officer. Actually...screw that....he runs the warehouse. My point is he makes sure all the guys are doing what they are supposed to be doing once the CEO dictates the direction of the company. He just had his knee scoped, and is supposed to be back by week 1. That's a mistake. Scopes aren't a deal breaker for most football players, but most of them don't have to put a tremendous amount of pressure on their thighs and knees to quickly snap a ball and then hold off a 300 lb. nose tackle, or blitzing MLB. Hell....if I'm playing the Colts I am inside blitzing ALLLLLLLLL day. If I know that.....defensive coordinators know that.
During their dominant offensive run, the Colts have lived and died with that offensive line. With all the missed preseason, and all the hobbling on and off the field, I don't trust them. And therefore, I don't trust the Colts. And therefore....I don't trust that running game at all. The fantasy value of Colts running backs has always stemmed from their TD opportunities. There will be less of those now. Let someone else get suckered into that scene...it's not going to work out.
Downgrade Dallas Clark. Seriously. He still wasn't the highest scoring TE last year, and that's when he could run all over and catch 100 balls. Now he needs to block. Not to mention the fact that Gonzalez, Garcon, and Collie would all like to catch a ball every so often.
Reggie Wayne has been the most overrated fantasy WR for years now. He has NEVER been a weekly threat. He has big, huge games, with a couple weeks of nothin' in between. That's about to get worse as Manning has to rely on 3 step drops, and can't chuck it deep as often.
Austin Collie is lining up in both the slot, and the outside. What that means is Gonzelez and Garcon are essentially splitting carries. That makes all of them worth less than their current draft slots. Gonzalez is going late in drafts, or not at all, so his value is relatively spot on. Make no mistake about it, while Collie will be a heavily used 4th man....he's still the 4th man. But the guy I really hate here is Garcon. Look...he'll be a solid #3/#4, with a few good weeks, and some scattered crap weeks. But he's being taken as the 25th WR off the board on average. (ADP of 65, or mid round 5 for most leagues.) He won't produce like a low end #2.
Plus....that schedule is harder than it looks. Oakland's better, Jacksonville is better, Philly's better, Washington's better....they have some tough draws to mix in with the Houstons, and Tennesees. That means more inconsistency from the receiving corp.
The one guy......the ONE guy I would consider drafting is Donald Brown. And that is ONLY because of Addai's concussion, and the fact his ADP is 109....42nd RB off the board. If he gets the majority of the carries, he could end up being a serviceable #2 back, and exceed that draft spot. But think more Marshawn Lynch 2008. Never a hundred yard game and under 10 TD's.
The Girl That Everyone Thought Was Hot Until Her Wig Flew Off/Bra Came Unstuffed When Her Evil Plan To Eliminate The New Hot Girl From The Prom Backfired: Houston Texans.
This is somewhat specific to the passing game.......on top of having one of the easiest pass schedules the world has ever seen in 2009, you have a better chance of being struck by lightening while simultaneously capturing a Bengal Tiger and watching a blockbuster movie that had Paul Giamotti being cast as the Incredible Hulk (Not David Banner....the actual Hulk) than you have of both Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson staying on the field for more than 13 games two years in a row.
The line is intact. Neh...it may be better. Which means more running. Which means less passing. Will this be Jacoby's breakout year? Maybe...but not in the "Reggie Wayne breakout year" fashion. More in the "Walter Johnson" breakout year fashion. And that will take balls away from Johnson, who has yet to break the 10 TD barrier. Move Johnson down your board. (He should at least be behind Moss and Austin.) Keep Jacoby where he is...a low end 3rd WR, and don't even think about drafting Schaub. If you draft Schaub, you better have a great backup. Like...I don't know....Aaron Rodgers. Otherwise, don't do it.
The Overhyped/Overconfident Girl That Was Easily Not As Hot As The New Girl That Transferred: Green Bay Packers.
50 sacks. That's alot of sacks. And your favorite WR in late round 2, early round 3, Greg Jennings, had 4 TD's. That won't change much, because about 1/2 way through 2008 teams said..."Heh...Jennings gets all his TD's by getting behind our defense. Let's not allow him to do that anymore, because he's not that fast, and Donald Driver is not nearly the threat he once was. So we'll double cover Jennings instead" Then he stopped catching TD's. That pattern is here to stay. I realize they had to deal with injuries to their O-Line in '09, but last years whipping boys....Detroit and Chicago.... both made moves to put more pressure on the QB. Plus that schedule included some horrible Pass Defenses. This year, short of a week 2 contest at Buffalo, and a week 6 contest at Miami, those pass D's they are facing have seen alot of improvement. And if you were playing a crappy Buffalo, and a banged up Miami.....wouldn't you run all game? You would? Me too. Therefore, I like Grant to put up similar numbers, but not at the "10th RB off the board" spot he's being drafted in. I see Finley putting up identical numbers, Jennings stuck at 6 TD's, and Driver being much less of a factor. I would look hard at James Jones out of the slot as his talent outweighs his average draft spot, and Rodgers will have alot of hot reads to make, but I would stay away from the rest of these guys.
If you have guys from these teams, you can still trade em. But do it before the season starts, otherwise you won't recover the value you drafted them for.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Fantasy Football Prom Queens: The NFL Equivalent of Rachel Leigh Cook
You know that "sneaky hot" girl you work/go to school/see at the bus-stop every day? The one that....if she just lost the glasses, found a cream rinse, and grabbed an inexpensive but form fitting shirt from H&M...she'd be dynamite? That girl is a classic Rachel Leigh Cook. You know she can be hot if she just made a few moves, but you continually ignore her. So you know what happens? Freddie Prinze Jr. snaps her up, she takes down the ponytail, and you are left kicking yourself.
In the same way, every year there seems to be a team that produces a multitude of fantasy options that comes out of nowhere. You realize that the pieces are there. You see the potential from far away...but some bad reputation skews your vision as they get closer. Maybe they've had a bad offensive line for years. Maybe they've always been a defense first team. Maybe there's just way too many things that have to go right for it to work out. But ask yourself... did you ever DREAM that Steve Breaston would have such an impact on your season in 2008? Did you give any thought to grabbing Sidney Rice in the mid-rounds of your draft in 2009? Wes Welker in 2007, Marion Barber in 2006.....the list goes on. You knew that under all that tom-boy exterior was a hot chick with huge tits. Maybe even one that equated sleeping with alot of dudes as evidence she was hot, and desperately wanted the approval of their peers...or even better...their fathers.
I bring to you this years new hotties. The teams that are ready to go from the Math Club to the Prom. Move the stars up on your draft board, and target there unheard of options in the late round, because a third wide-receiver from these teams is the equivalent of a pity-hand-job to get you off their backs. It may not be exactly what you wanted, but man...it still feels good.
Tampa Bay: Some Kind of Wonderful.
Think of the Bucs as Mary Stuart Masterson. "All I need is you, me, and my drums." She goes from short haired tom-boy to...well...she's still Mary Stuart Masterson. Not super hot, but she's showing cleavage, and she's completely willing to drink your man-juice like it was a potion for reviving her career. Good enough.
Tampa is still kinda ugly. Freeman will still toss a boat load of INT's this season. But there is alot of reason to be optimistic. I'm starting with the offensive line. There are no major changes, but these guys are young. But no longer toooo young. They are...well...breakout stage young. Add in that last year they battled injury issues with their center, and had no depth. They've added some depth in the draft, and may be prime to take a major step forward. Did you see them against Miami? Not too shabby.
Then...check out the new game plan. Last year, the team only averaged 25 running attempts a game. That's going to change...although not by much. Greg Olsen steps in and brings a version of the Steve Mariucci West Coast Offense in with him. Or should I say, the John Gruden Superbowl winning offensive style. However, given the age of the starters, the west coast will take some time to develop. And remember...it's a Mariucci west coast. That means there will be enough running and passing to go around.
So we have a better line, and a more suitable game plan. Add an improved defense that will keep the offense closer to the goal line, and all we need is offensive talent. I want you to take a very good, very hard look at Freeman. His thumb will be fine by the start of the season. He's got great mobility. He's got a massive arm. He has a boat load of potential, that under the right coach with the right system, he could be pretty damn good. On the downside....his accuracy leaves much to be desired. He will struggle at times. he will still throw an interception or two a game. But make no mistake about it....he's going to score. He's still going to have a few 250-300 yard gems with 2-3 TD's and 50 yards on the ground. For all of you that are eyeing Vince Young, or Matt Moore late in the draft...Freeman is better. His short lived pre-season stat line? 4 for 4, 53 yards. Not bad. Overall, the kids a playmaker.
And now he's surrounded by other playmakers.
Have you seen Mike Williams in pre-season? Mike Williams will be the highest impact rookie in 2010. There...I said it. F you Ryan Mathews. I didn't want you in my draft anyway. Williams will be this teams flanker. So basically, he'll have DeSean Jackson's position in a relatively similar offense with a quarterback that's equivalent to Donovan McNabb, with more speed and less ability to read a defense. Except Williams is bigger with better hands. I'll take it.
The next best receiver? Time to move Kellen Winslow up your depth chart. This offense is made for TE's running slot routes and outside flares. He'll get plenty of targets from his young QB.
Lastly, the running game. Do you remember last year in the first four weeks, when you had to check the stat sheet three times because you SWEAR you thought it said that 100 yard back was Cadillac Williams, but...but it just couldn't be! Could it? Yup...it was. But he's not even the best part of this offense. The best part is Kareem Huggins. He's got 50 yards on the ground in each of his first 2 preseason games. Huggins is a small back...5'9"...so he probably won't take a full time roll. That said...shit this kid is fast. Fast and built like he's auditioning for a 1993 Janet Jackson video. The rookie out of Hofstra ran a 4.28 40 at the combine, and he's already supplanted Ward on the depth chart. Think Felix Jones before he was exposed to whatever type of radiation turns bone into the plastic they use to make tampon applicators. Don't believe me? Just follow the link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bees8RMFQvY
And all that speed has translated onto the field. Check out this run against Miami: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d819c194d
Point is....he could be special. And if you draft them wisely, so can the Tampa Bay Bucs for your fantasy team.
Baltimore Ravens: She's All That.
"What is this, some sort of dork outreach program?" Okay...so you can see the potential is there. The new shiny WR, the third year "breakout ready" quarterback, the running game....the pieces are there.
So why are you hesitating?
Ohhhhhh....I forgot. Their a defensive minded team. They don't care about offense. Just like Rachel Leigh Cook didn't give a shit about what she looked like. She had an image she wanted to convey, and she held onto it. That is, until the super popular, wicked hot Freddie Prinze Jr. came a knockin'....
Consider the Ravens ready for the prom. And after the prom they will give you head. In the back of the limo. While your friends watch. And then they'll do them too. You think their a defensive minded team that will grind the ball? Really?
Tell that to offensive guru Cam Cameron. Or the new Offensive Consultant Al Saunders. Or the new Quarterback coach Jim Zorn. You may have heard of these guys. They are bona-fuckin-fide offensive star makers, and they're all under one cold weather roof. Flacco has been working with Zorn, and practicing his delivery with MLB pitching coaches. I'm pretty sure the Ravens are seeing to it that he's getting swedish massages nightly from Angelina Jolie's strong and capable hands, Emeril Lagasse spoon feeds him his high protein diet, and every time he needs to drop a brown biscuit, Art Modell rises from the dead to wipe his ass for him.
This is not your Daddy's Ravens. Let me ask you...if you planned on grinding out the running game every week....would you have Willis McGahee on the trade block? I mean...wouldn't you at least keep him around even if you were going to move him on the depth chart?
You wouldn't. And neither would they. They are going to throw. And they will run. And they will look like the Harlem Globetrotters doing it in the AFC North. So get confident with Rice. Put McLain back on the depth chart, as the new FB McLaughlin looks good enough to handle full time front blocker duty. McLain will handle the goal line. And you want some deep RB sleepers? Try Jalen Parmele, who's been a stand out so far on special teams, and has lead the Ravens in carries over the preseason. (You read that correctly....he's gotten more carries than Ray Rice.) And don't count out Curtis Steele at RB. This shifty rookie may be taking some carries between the tackles for the blackbirds, and will likely take over Rice's roll if there is an injury.
As far as the passing game, Flacco is a solid choice for a breakout season. I still wouldn't rank him any higher than 9....but he may be the backup that ends up winning your league. When Anquoin Boldin is healthy, he'll have some great games. He's going very low right now. Late #2, early #3 WR. He's better than that. How Brandon Marshall can go in the second round, and Boldin continually falls to the fourth I will never understand.
And that TE will be a fantastic steal with your last pick of the draft. No...not Todd Heap. That POS is DOA. I'm talking about rookie TE Dennis Pitta. This kid's been targeted four times the amount Heap has, and has hauled in five times the amount of catches. He could easily turn in to a bankable redzone threat with McGehee out of the picture.
Of course.....like all "out of nowhere" teams, there's there are a couple of WR's that's not getting drafted at all, that you need to pick up late. Wait...who just said Mark Clayton? I swear if I hear anyone say Mark Clayton I will go to the trunk of my car, grab the driver that my ex-wife gave me out of my golf bag, and bash your fucking skull in with it. I've been dying to break that thing anyway. No fuck-tard....Donte Stallworth, who will be the official HR threat for the team, and has shown at points in his career he can absolutely excel in that position....and Demetrius Williams. At some point, Boldin will get hurt. Hell....Mason is already hurt. Demetrius Williams will get the call, and when he does, this 6' 200 lb. slot receiver may never hit the bench again. He's done decent with the opportunities he's had so far, and now that the rest of his team is competent, I expect him to take it to the next step. (Meaning solid 3rd WR, at minimum.)
Oakland Raiders: Crappy Melissa-Joan Hart movie that I'm not going to waste my time looking the name up because you won't recognize it anyway.
So in this movie, Melissa-Joan Hart has to make-over some guy up to take to the prom, and he ends up getting a lead roll on Entourage. No...you don't want to do him...but he's still pretty cool.
That sums up your Oakland Raiders. I know...they suck. And they still may suck. Jason Campbell is not Peyton Manning.
But as you've read countless times....he's not Jamarcus "Most Kickers Can Put Up Higher QB Ratings Than Me" Russel either. So instead of putting 9-10 guys in the box, most teams may actually only put 7 or 8 there. That's a step up. The offensive line is moving to more of a power-man blocking scheme as opposed to the zone blocking scheme they could not execute, and gets bolstered by rookies Smith and Vallejo. A pluthera of defensive additions will give the offense more minutes on the field. So who benefits the most? Well...you. If you draft some Raiders.
Jason Campbell may have his best season yet. No...he will not take you to a fantasy championship. He's still a backup. But he may be a damn good backup.
With Hugh Jackson at the helm, the running game is sure to get a boost. All 245 pounds of Michael Bush should see plenty of carries this season. If the preseason is any indication, he should be getting plenty of passes thrown his way as well. And if he's not being checked down to....Zach Miller will be.
Note that I didn't mention Darren McFadden. That is because he sucks. And his sore hammy will make him suckier. Move Bush up. Don't draft McFadden.
Of course all this will be used to set up the big play. And who will be the recipient of that big play? Darrius Heyward-Bey? Johnny-Lee Higgins? Chaz Schillins? Nope. They will contribute, but the guy you want to target late is Louis Murphy. I think the reason people disregard him is because of his ordinary sounding name. But that just makes him less likely to be a serial killer, not less likely to catch passes. He's been the most successful deep threat for Oakland to date, and I like him to carry that into a new role that should supply you with 1100 yards, and 9 TD's this season.
By the way....if you're looking for a sleeper defense....look no further. This is an entirely revamped front 7, complete with pash rushing DE's, and new and improved linebacker play. The Pass D was already good, but now that they can rush occasionally and stop the run, I'm looking at them to be a top 10 D this year.
Lastly, I would like to leave you with the Chicago Bears. But I'm not going to do a full review, because you can't turn on your computer without hearing about Mike Martz's and Mike Tice's influence. Look...Aramashoua will be very good in the slot. Knox will get a bunch of deep balls and nothing else. Cutler is the most talented QB Martz ever worked with. Matt Forte wil get about 65% of the carries, and will be closer to 3.9 yards a game than 3.5, and add in a few receptions every game. Devon Hester is not a #1, and Greg Olson will disappear. But as of right now, all of these guys are being drafted right where they should be, and I don't see alot of surprises, so I'll leave them alone.
**************LATE AMENDMENT***************
Wow....completely forgot about KC. I'll just say this....their draft and Romeo Crennel should upgrade their defense, so the offense should get more minutes on the field. Not too much has changed on their O-Line...but like Tampa Bay, it's a very young line that should have a couple guys ready to have "break out" seasons. Charlie Weiss takes over the offense, which means run, run, run, deep pass, run, run, deep pass.
I can't believe that Jamaal Charles went from automatic first rounder to mid-late third rounder because of Thomas Jones Presence. Starter Shmarter. He's the" #1" back in that offense like "Phantom Mentace" was the first Star Wars. It's slower, cornier, more predictable than "A New Hope"....and let's face it....it's really not the first Star Wars. Will Thomas Jones take some goal line carries away? Sure. Will he get the ball four the first 4 carries? Probably. But that said, will his carries be limited to around 8-12 times a game on average? You betcha. Will KC run the ball 30 times a game giving Charles between 15-20 carries? Absolutely. Count on him for a top 12 finish in your RB scoring....which should make him a low #1 back on the draft board. Getting him as a mid #2 is a discount.
On the passing end.....I really expect both Bowe and Cassel to rebound. I don't see #1 status for Cassel, but I do see 3700 yards and 25 TD's while drastically cutting down on the INT's. (14-17.) Essentially he's 2009 Jay Cutler with less INT's. That's a solid #2 QB with a pretty easy schedule, making him a great compliment to your #1. He's undrafted in most leagues, which gives you a great reason to postpone the pick of a #2 QB. Bowe however is being drafted right around where he belongs. Third, 4th round as a #2 receiver. I like him better than several of the guys he's being drafted behind (Steve Smith, OchoCinco, Hakeem Nicks) but I'm not ready to call him a sure fire #1 yet because I believe he'll be inconsistent. If KC can run the ball, they will.
As far as deep sleepers go, I'm not seeing any. I really like Maoki at TE, and think he'll be a time share (with Leonard Pope) pass catching threat much like Chris Cooley this year. He'll be a very usable #2 TE, that is great for covering your bye-weeks and Vernon Davis injuries. (It WILL happen.) That said, he's someone to watch very carefully....not draft. Same for McCluster......he'll be a nightmare for some defenses, but he won't have weekly use.
Now you're wondering....if these teams are ready to be named prom queen...who are the ones that were SUPPOSED to be prom queen, only to come in second and have to storm out after this major blow to their popularity?
Answers coming soon kids. Very soon.
In the same way, every year there seems to be a team that produces a multitude of fantasy options that comes out of nowhere. You realize that the pieces are there. You see the potential from far away...but some bad reputation skews your vision as they get closer. Maybe they've had a bad offensive line for years. Maybe they've always been a defense first team. Maybe there's just way too many things that have to go right for it to work out. But ask yourself... did you ever DREAM that Steve Breaston would have such an impact on your season in 2008? Did you give any thought to grabbing Sidney Rice in the mid-rounds of your draft in 2009? Wes Welker in 2007, Marion Barber in 2006.....the list goes on. You knew that under all that tom-boy exterior was a hot chick with huge tits. Maybe even one that equated sleeping with alot of dudes as evidence she was hot, and desperately wanted the approval of their peers...or even better...their fathers.
I bring to you this years new hotties. The teams that are ready to go from the Math Club to the Prom. Move the stars up on your draft board, and target there unheard of options in the late round, because a third wide-receiver from these teams is the equivalent of a pity-hand-job to get you off their backs. It may not be exactly what you wanted, but man...it still feels good.
Tampa Bay: Some Kind of Wonderful.
Think of the Bucs as Mary Stuart Masterson. "All I need is you, me, and my drums." She goes from short haired tom-boy to...well...she's still Mary Stuart Masterson. Not super hot, but she's showing cleavage, and she's completely willing to drink your man-juice like it was a potion for reviving her career. Good enough.
Tampa is still kinda ugly. Freeman will still toss a boat load of INT's this season. But there is alot of reason to be optimistic. I'm starting with the offensive line. There are no major changes, but these guys are young. But no longer toooo young. They are...well...breakout stage young. Add in that last year they battled injury issues with their center, and had no depth. They've added some depth in the draft, and may be prime to take a major step forward. Did you see them against Miami? Not too shabby.
Then...check out the new game plan. Last year, the team only averaged 25 running attempts a game. That's going to change...although not by much. Greg Olsen steps in and brings a version of the Steve Mariucci West Coast Offense in with him. Or should I say, the John Gruden Superbowl winning offensive style. However, given the age of the starters, the west coast will take some time to develop. And remember...it's a Mariucci west coast. That means there will be enough running and passing to go around.
So we have a better line, and a more suitable game plan. Add an improved defense that will keep the offense closer to the goal line, and all we need is offensive talent. I want you to take a very good, very hard look at Freeman. His thumb will be fine by the start of the season. He's got great mobility. He's got a massive arm. He has a boat load of potential, that under the right coach with the right system, he could be pretty damn good. On the downside....his accuracy leaves much to be desired. He will struggle at times. he will still throw an interception or two a game. But make no mistake about it....he's going to score. He's still going to have a few 250-300 yard gems with 2-3 TD's and 50 yards on the ground. For all of you that are eyeing Vince Young, or Matt Moore late in the draft...Freeman is better. His short lived pre-season stat line? 4 for 4, 53 yards. Not bad. Overall, the kids a playmaker.
And now he's surrounded by other playmakers.
Have you seen Mike Williams in pre-season? Mike Williams will be the highest impact rookie in 2010. There...I said it. F you Ryan Mathews. I didn't want you in my draft anyway. Williams will be this teams flanker. So basically, he'll have DeSean Jackson's position in a relatively similar offense with a quarterback that's equivalent to Donovan McNabb, with more speed and less ability to read a defense. Except Williams is bigger with better hands. I'll take it.
The next best receiver? Time to move Kellen Winslow up your depth chart. This offense is made for TE's running slot routes and outside flares. He'll get plenty of targets from his young QB.
Lastly, the running game. Do you remember last year in the first four weeks, when you had to check the stat sheet three times because you SWEAR you thought it said that 100 yard back was Cadillac Williams, but...but it just couldn't be! Could it? Yup...it was. But he's not even the best part of this offense. The best part is Kareem Huggins. He's got 50 yards on the ground in each of his first 2 preseason games. Huggins is a small back...5'9"...so he probably won't take a full time roll. That said...shit this kid is fast. Fast and built like he's auditioning for a 1993 Janet Jackson video. The rookie out of Hofstra ran a 4.28 40 at the combine, and he's already supplanted Ward on the depth chart. Think Felix Jones before he was exposed to whatever type of radiation turns bone into the plastic they use to make tampon applicators. Don't believe me? Just follow the link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bees8RMFQvY
And all that speed has translated onto the field. Check out this run against Miami: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d819c194d
Point is....he could be special. And if you draft them wisely, so can the Tampa Bay Bucs for your fantasy team.
Baltimore Ravens: She's All That.
"What is this, some sort of dork outreach program?" Okay...so you can see the potential is there. The new shiny WR, the third year "breakout ready" quarterback, the running game....the pieces are there.
So why are you hesitating?
Ohhhhhh....I forgot. Their a defensive minded team. They don't care about offense. Just like Rachel Leigh Cook didn't give a shit about what she looked like. She had an image she wanted to convey, and she held onto it. That is, until the super popular, wicked hot Freddie Prinze Jr. came a knockin'....
Consider the Ravens ready for the prom. And after the prom they will give you head. In the back of the limo. While your friends watch. And then they'll do them too. You think their a defensive minded team that will grind the ball? Really?
Tell that to offensive guru Cam Cameron. Or the new Offensive Consultant Al Saunders. Or the new Quarterback coach Jim Zorn. You may have heard of these guys. They are bona-fuckin-fide offensive star makers, and they're all under one cold weather roof. Flacco has been working with Zorn, and practicing his delivery with MLB pitching coaches. I'm pretty sure the Ravens are seeing to it that he's getting swedish massages nightly from Angelina Jolie's strong and capable hands, Emeril Lagasse spoon feeds him his high protein diet, and every time he needs to drop a brown biscuit, Art Modell rises from the dead to wipe his ass for him.
This is not your Daddy's Ravens. Let me ask you...if you planned on grinding out the running game every week....would you have Willis McGahee on the trade block? I mean...wouldn't you at least keep him around even if you were going to move him on the depth chart?
You wouldn't. And neither would they. They are going to throw. And they will run. And they will look like the Harlem Globetrotters doing it in the AFC North. So get confident with Rice. Put McLain back on the depth chart, as the new FB McLaughlin looks good enough to handle full time front blocker duty. McLain will handle the goal line. And you want some deep RB sleepers? Try Jalen Parmele, who's been a stand out so far on special teams, and has lead the Ravens in carries over the preseason. (You read that correctly....he's gotten more carries than Ray Rice.) And don't count out Curtis Steele at RB. This shifty rookie may be taking some carries between the tackles for the blackbirds, and will likely take over Rice's roll if there is an injury.
As far as the passing game, Flacco is a solid choice for a breakout season. I still wouldn't rank him any higher than 9....but he may be the backup that ends up winning your league. When Anquoin Boldin is healthy, he'll have some great games. He's going very low right now. Late #2, early #3 WR. He's better than that. How Brandon Marshall can go in the second round, and Boldin continually falls to the fourth I will never understand.
And that TE will be a fantastic steal with your last pick of the draft. No...not Todd Heap. That POS is DOA. I'm talking about rookie TE Dennis Pitta. This kid's been targeted four times the amount Heap has, and has hauled in five times the amount of catches. He could easily turn in to a bankable redzone threat with McGehee out of the picture.
Of course.....like all "out of nowhere" teams, there's there are a couple of WR's that's not getting drafted at all, that you need to pick up late. Wait...who just said Mark Clayton? I swear if I hear anyone say Mark Clayton I will go to the trunk of my car, grab the driver that my ex-wife gave me out of my golf bag, and bash your fucking skull in with it. I've been dying to break that thing anyway. No fuck-tard....Donte Stallworth, who will be the official HR threat for the team, and has shown at points in his career he can absolutely excel in that position....and Demetrius Williams. At some point, Boldin will get hurt. Hell....Mason is already hurt. Demetrius Williams will get the call, and when he does, this 6' 200 lb. slot receiver may never hit the bench again. He's done decent with the opportunities he's had so far, and now that the rest of his team is competent, I expect him to take it to the next step. (Meaning solid 3rd WR, at minimum.)
Oakland Raiders: Crappy Melissa-Joan Hart movie that I'm not going to waste my time looking the name up because you won't recognize it anyway.
So in this movie, Melissa-Joan Hart has to make-over some guy up to take to the prom, and he ends up getting a lead roll on Entourage. No...you don't want to do him...but he's still pretty cool.
That sums up your Oakland Raiders. I know...they suck. And they still may suck. Jason Campbell is not Peyton Manning.
But as you've read countless times....he's not Jamarcus "Most Kickers Can Put Up Higher QB Ratings Than Me" Russel either. So instead of putting 9-10 guys in the box, most teams may actually only put 7 or 8 there. That's a step up. The offensive line is moving to more of a power-man blocking scheme as opposed to the zone blocking scheme they could not execute, and gets bolstered by rookies Smith and Vallejo. A pluthera of defensive additions will give the offense more minutes on the field. So who benefits the most? Well...you. If you draft some Raiders.
Jason Campbell may have his best season yet. No...he will not take you to a fantasy championship. He's still a backup. But he may be a damn good backup.
With Hugh Jackson at the helm, the running game is sure to get a boost. All 245 pounds of Michael Bush should see plenty of carries this season. If the preseason is any indication, he should be getting plenty of passes thrown his way as well. And if he's not being checked down to....Zach Miller will be.
Note that I didn't mention Darren McFadden. That is because he sucks. And his sore hammy will make him suckier. Move Bush up. Don't draft McFadden.
Of course all this will be used to set up the big play. And who will be the recipient of that big play? Darrius Heyward-Bey? Johnny-Lee Higgins? Chaz Schillins? Nope. They will contribute, but the guy you want to target late is Louis Murphy. I think the reason people disregard him is because of his ordinary sounding name. But that just makes him less likely to be a serial killer, not less likely to catch passes. He's been the most successful deep threat for Oakland to date, and I like him to carry that into a new role that should supply you with 1100 yards, and 9 TD's this season.
By the way....if you're looking for a sleeper defense....look no further. This is an entirely revamped front 7, complete with pash rushing DE's, and new and improved linebacker play. The Pass D was already good, but now that they can rush occasionally and stop the run, I'm looking at them to be a top 10 D this year.
Lastly, I would like to leave you with the Chicago Bears. But I'm not going to do a full review, because you can't turn on your computer without hearing about Mike Martz's and Mike Tice's influence. Look...Aramashoua will be very good in the slot. Knox will get a bunch of deep balls and nothing else. Cutler is the most talented QB Martz ever worked with. Matt Forte wil get about 65% of the carries, and will be closer to 3.9 yards a game than 3.5, and add in a few receptions every game. Devon Hester is not a #1, and Greg Olson will disappear. But as of right now, all of these guys are being drafted right where they should be, and I don't see alot of surprises, so I'll leave them alone.
**************LATE AMENDMENT***************
Wow....completely forgot about KC. I'll just say this....their draft and Romeo Crennel should upgrade their defense, so the offense should get more minutes on the field. Not too much has changed on their O-Line...but like Tampa Bay, it's a very young line that should have a couple guys ready to have "break out" seasons. Charlie Weiss takes over the offense, which means run, run, run, deep pass, run, run, deep pass.
I can't believe that Jamaal Charles went from automatic first rounder to mid-late third rounder because of Thomas Jones Presence. Starter Shmarter. He's the" #1" back in that offense like "Phantom Mentace" was the first Star Wars. It's slower, cornier, more predictable than "A New Hope"....and let's face it....it's really not the first Star Wars. Will Thomas Jones take some goal line carries away? Sure. Will he get the ball four the first 4 carries? Probably. But that said, will his carries be limited to around 8-12 times a game on average? You betcha. Will KC run the ball 30 times a game giving Charles between 15-20 carries? Absolutely. Count on him for a top 12 finish in your RB scoring....which should make him a low #1 back on the draft board. Getting him as a mid #2 is a discount.
On the passing end.....I really expect both Bowe and Cassel to rebound. I don't see #1 status for Cassel, but I do see 3700 yards and 25 TD's while drastically cutting down on the INT's. (14-17.) Essentially he's 2009 Jay Cutler with less INT's. That's a solid #2 QB with a pretty easy schedule, making him a great compliment to your #1. He's undrafted in most leagues, which gives you a great reason to postpone the pick of a #2 QB. Bowe however is being drafted right around where he belongs. Third, 4th round as a #2 receiver. I like him better than several of the guys he's being drafted behind (Steve Smith, OchoCinco, Hakeem Nicks) but I'm not ready to call him a sure fire #1 yet because I believe he'll be inconsistent. If KC can run the ball, they will.
As far as deep sleepers go, I'm not seeing any. I really like Maoki at TE, and think he'll be a time share (with Leonard Pope) pass catching threat much like Chris Cooley this year. He'll be a very usable #2 TE, that is great for covering your bye-weeks and Vernon Davis injuries. (It WILL happen.) That said, he's someone to watch very carefully....not draft. Same for McCluster......he'll be a nightmare for some defenses, but he won't have weekly use.
Now you're wondering....if these teams are ready to be named prom queen...who are the ones that were SUPPOSED to be prom queen, only to come in second and have to storm out after this major blow to their popularity?
Answers coming soon kids. Very soon.
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