You like what I did there? With the intentional mispelling of "weather?" Hah! Hilarious. Okay...time to get serious.
I remember it was around 1985/86 when I heard Dave Winfield answer a reporters question about why he always started so slow. I'm paraphrasing, but he said something about the fact he was a big man at 6'6", and it took awhile for a guy his size to warm up and get all the body parts moving right. In essence....he took awhile to develop a rhythm. I've been thinking about this lately as I read of how Big Tex is taking extra swings in the off season to avoid his slow start. And how a supersized Prince Fielder only hits in May every 2 years. And how the 6'4" Matt Holiday's and David Ortiz's tend to take April off as a whole.
And then I thought about 2010.....the year of the pitcher. Where it seems the entire league was cold until August, when all those young arms finally began to wear down.
Or did they?
I have heard a million reasons why 2010 was the year of the pitcher. No steroids...tons of young pitchers finally coming into their own, lots of rookies making their mark, etc.
What if I told you it was all wrong. What if I told you that the entire reason that 2010 was the year of the pitcher was due to air density. And what if I told you that 2011 was going to be even more exaggerated in this manner. Would it effect the way you draft? Damn right it would.
First off.....this has been debated before. The science has been examined. The call has been that IF the weather really effects batters that much, it would equally effect pitchers, so it evens out. But I say it depends on the pitcher/batter in question. I'm not going to give you a science lesson, but here's some background:
The cooler and dryer the air is, the denser it is. (Think San Diego....low to Sea level, never breaks 80, always sunny.) Conversely, hotter and wetter, the air loses it's density. (Think Colorado, which because of it's altitude, the air is less dense, and the stadium is a launching pad.) So it makes sense if it's cool and dry the ball will have less sustained momentum for a 400 feet HR (won't travel as far), but MORE side to side movement for 90 feet, as the ball with it's rotating seams fights through the denser air. See where I'm going with this? Cooler, dryer weather makes the ball move more out of the pitchers hand, which makes solid contact with a 5" round piece of wood less likely, and turns HR's into warning track outs.
This has been studied over playoff/world series games where some batters suddenly go cold, and pitching takes you farther than hitting. The consensus is that the effect on pitchers nullifies the effect on hitters. Why? Because if the ball is dry and cold, it's harder to grip, which means less movement in general. Pus the ball seems shrink, which means that will counter act their ability to create movement. Plus a 96 mph fastball may only be 95. That makes a difference.
Sweet Spot Sluggers: I'm just going to say slow starters. Tex has a BEAUTIFUL swing. He's got it in April, and he has it in October, but he only hits in the middle of the year.
I remember owning him in 2006. The beginning of the summer was unusually cold....and so was he. 6 HR's by the all-star break. 27 after it. And he only hit .280 for the season, but he walked into the break at a .218 clip. And I thought....could it be the temperature that...naaawwwww. And I'll I kept hearing that year was "well....he's hitting the ball hard....it's just not going out of the park." It's not air density....it's the sweet spot of the bat. When you have a great swing, you have a higher percentage chance of hitting the ball with the roughly 1" in diameter sweet spot of the bat. When the ball is moving more, but your swing is the same....you may be hitting it hard, but not with the same part of the bat that allows for a higher transference of engery to the ball. So less velocity, less momentum, and more fly ball outs as opposed to HR's.
So ALL those great players with great swings that hit the crap out of the ball last August.....Tex, Holiday, Fielder, Abreau, Braun, A-Rod, even guys that don't have great power like Jeter, but have an exemplary swing.....move them down the draft board.
But move up Vladdy. Why? He does not have a great swing. He swings at everything, and hits it. Guys that are in the practice of hitting crap pitches.....Vladdy, Rickie Weeks....guys that never take walks, but never strike out...this is their time to shine. They don't depend on the sweet spot, they just make contact baby. And they will be fine. In fact........given the way the ball moves off their bat and DIES in the OF earlier HELPS them. It turns fly ball outs into line drive doubles. Perfect. So move Asdrubal Cabrera back up the list, and think hard about how a big .350 hitting Panda may do as your corner IF.
Now....obviously weather is not the only factor in whether a player will succeed or fail, but the proof that it has effects on baseball is there. There are clearly some players it effects more than others. It's only one of the million things you should take into account for player evaluation...but it's definitely something to consider when thinking about whether Ryan Ludwick who had a great (hot and rainy) 2009 will regain form in a cold and dry 2011.
I remember it was around 1985/86 when I heard Dave Winfield answer a reporters question about why he always started so slow. I'm paraphrasing, but he said something about the fact he was a big man at 6'6", and it took awhile for a guy his size to warm up and get all the body parts moving right. In essence....he took awhile to develop a rhythm. I've been thinking about this lately as I read of how Big Tex is taking extra swings in the off season to avoid his slow start. And how a supersized Prince Fielder only hits in May every 2 years. And how the 6'4" Matt Holiday's and David Ortiz's tend to take April off as a whole.
And then I thought about 2010.....the year of the pitcher. Where it seems the entire league was cold until August, when all those young arms finally began to wear down.
Or did they?
I have heard a million reasons why 2010 was the year of the pitcher. No steroids...tons of young pitchers finally coming into their own, lots of rookies making their mark, etc.
What if I told you it was all wrong. What if I told you that the entire reason that 2010 was the year of the pitcher was due to air density. And what if I told you that 2011 was going to be even more exaggerated in this manner. Would it effect the way you draft? Damn right it would.
First off.....this has been debated before. The science has been examined. The call has been that IF the weather really effects batters that much, it would equally effect pitchers, so it evens out. But I say it depends on the pitcher/batter in question. I'm not going to give you a science lesson, but here's some background:
The cooler and dryer the air is, the denser it is. (Think San Diego....low to Sea level, never breaks 80, always sunny.) Conversely, hotter and wetter, the air loses it's density. (Think Colorado, which because of it's altitude, the air is less dense, and the stadium is a launching pad.) So it makes sense if it's cool and dry the ball will have less sustained momentum for a 400 feet HR (won't travel as far), but MORE side to side movement for 90 feet, as the ball with it's rotating seams fights through the denser air. See where I'm going with this? Cooler, dryer weather makes the ball move more out of the pitchers hand, which makes solid contact with a 5" round piece of wood less likely, and turns HR's into warning track outs.
This has been studied over playoff/world series games where some batters suddenly go cold, and pitching takes you farther than hitting. The consensus is that the effect on pitchers nullifies the effect on hitters. Why? Because if the ball is dry and cold, it's harder to grip, which means less movement in general. Pus the ball seems shrink, which means that will counter act their ability to create movement. Plus a 96 mph fastball may only be 95. That makes a difference.
I say hogwash. It depends on the pitcher. And the batter. And 2010 was a perfect example of why. 2010 was one of the dryest years on record, with the exception being the Midwest. (I know...it rained in Syracuse...but that's the only place.) Was it hot? Yes. But it was dry. Dry trumps hot. And it wasn't always hot. The hot was very, very hot which affects the average.
2011? It will be dryer. Potentially the 4th dryest summer on record. AND cooler. So....even more dense air.
So I know what you're thinking.....wow, better stock up on breaking ball pitchers and guys that can hit the ball 500 feet regardless. But....that's a mistake. A big one. In fact....more movement isn't good for every pitcher, and less momentum isn't bad for every batter. I'll use 4 extreme examples:
The "stuff" pitcher: Most pitchers are stuff pitchers. Think Mike Leake. Stuff doesn't mean speed. Stuff doesn't even mean strikeouts. Stuff means stuff. Leake has great stuff. He doesn't throw a blazing fastball, but his 92 MPH with good location ALREADY has great movement. Leake threw fastballs 60% of the time last year. That's a pretty good clip. Now lets give that fastball another .5 inches of movement right before you try to hit it with the "sweet spot" of your bat because the weather is cold and dry. Shazam. So Mike Leake, Bucholz, Hughes, Cahill, and all those other "stuff" guys that don't have blazing fastballs, but still throw a TON of them........move them up the draft board.
"Feel" pitchers: You know that guy with a "devastating" 12-6 curve? Those are feel pitchers. They rely on the seems of the ball, and rhythm of their movement heavily to get the effect they are looking for. Move them down the draft board.
I know what you're thinking......wouldn't it be easier to throw a curve? Well....no. Cooler, dryer air also shrinks the ball and makes the seems less pronounced. So....while you get more "unintentional" movement, it's actually harder to create "intentional" movement. Think Brian Matusz. He throws fastballs to lefties, but first and foremost, he's a curveball, changeup pitcher. They are both feel pitches. Cold dry weather? No feel. So he'll suck....again. Remember those 2 good games he had against Boston last year? Well....you don't, but I do. Both rainy. Both humid. Both great games for the guy with the deadly 12-6 curve.
Sweet Spot Sluggers: I'm just going to say slow starters. Tex has a BEAUTIFUL swing. He's got it in April, and he has it in October, but he only hits in the middle of the year.
I remember owning him in 2006. The beginning of the summer was unusually cold....and so was he. 6 HR's by the all-star break. 27 after it. And he only hit .280 for the season, but he walked into the break at a .218 clip. And I thought....could it be the temperature that...naaawwwww. And I'll I kept hearing that year was "well....he's hitting the ball hard....it's just not going out of the park." It's not air density....it's the sweet spot of the bat. When you have a great swing, you have a higher percentage chance of hitting the ball with the roughly 1" in diameter sweet spot of the bat. When the ball is moving more, but your swing is the same....you may be hitting it hard, but not with the same part of the bat that allows for a higher transference of engery to the ball. So less velocity, less momentum, and more fly ball outs as opposed to HR's.
So ALL those great players with great swings that hit the crap out of the ball last August.....Tex, Holiday, Fielder, Abreau, Braun, A-Rod, even guys that don't have great power like Jeter, but have an exemplary swing.....move them down the draft board.
But move up Vladdy. Why? He does not have a great swing. He swings at everything, and hits it. Guys that are in the practice of hitting crap pitches.....Vladdy, Rickie Weeks....guys that never take walks, but never strike out...this is their time to shine. They don't depend on the sweet spot, they just make contact baby. And they will be fine. In fact........given the way the ball moves off their bat and DIES in the OF earlier HELPS them. It turns fly ball outs into line drive doubles. Perfect. So move Asdrubal Cabrera back up the list, and think hard about how a big .350 hitting Panda may do as your corner IF.
Now....obviously weather is not the only factor in whether a player will succeed or fail, but the proof that it has effects on baseball is there. There are clearly some players it effects more than others. It's only one of the million things you should take into account for player evaluation...but it's definitely something to consider when thinking about whether Ryan Ludwick who had a great (hot and rainy) 2009 will regain form in a cold and dry 2011.
