Just when you think there's no way Alex Gordon will fill his potential, he finally has a 20 HR, 40 Double, .285 season. And so it is with sleepers.
But that's baseball. Football is a different story. You pretty much get one shot. You make that roster....or you don't. You're a first time starting RB once. You're a 3rd year starting WR once. Nobody gives a shit if your 27, 28, whatever.
You are in...or you are out.
Except when you're not.
In 2010, there were several sleepers that we reached and pulled for....we hoped they would fall to us. We chuckled to ourselves at the thought of being able to trade our 3rd round pick because we had an 11th rounder that was going to take that slot. We laughed at the foolishness of those around us for not recognizing our genius!
And then they sucked. And now they are forever gone. Nothing but a mere whisper lost in the winds of the almost was and never will be.
But then a guy like Matt Schaub chucks the rock for 4700 yards a year after he was supposed to, or Cedric Benson becomes a yardage horse 3 years after he was supposed to be relevant, and you're like....oh yeah. That guy. Damn...shoulda drafted him.
And with that, I bring you the fantasy sleeper darlings of 2010 that DIDN'T pan out, and some reason not to forget them in 2011.
Devin Aromashoda, WR
I think I forgot a "u" in that name somewhere, but damned if I know where to put it. Remember this Bears WR? The one that finished very strong in 2009? The 6'2" 210 lb. beast of a man that is sneaky fast, and crazy explosive? The one that was supposed to step right into a Mike Martz offense and be off the charts good?
He finished 2010 with 10 receptions for 149 yards and 0 TD's. So.....he sucks.
But will he continue to suck? Well....he's in Minny now which promises to be a run first offense under Musgrave, so that doesn't give you alot of hope. That said:
The guys ahead of him on the depth chart are Percy Harvin (good but migraine prone), Bernard Berrian (not good and injury prone), and Mike Jenkins (Not good, and slow, and now old so you wish he would just get an injury and clear the way for someone that was better, or at least faster.) The ONLY reason Jenkins is ahead of him is because he already knows the Musgrave system.
So when you think about it.....Aromashoda is an injury away from taking his considerable explosiveness onto speed enhancing dome grass with a Strong Arm QB that is desperate to find a play-maker, and keeping that spot. That makes him worth looking at.
Donnie Avery/Laurent Robinson, WR;
In 2010, people looked at Robinson's excellent rookie production, and the speedy Avery walking into the third year, and shouted from the rooftops.....Meh...it's still the Rams. But we all agreed that someone had to catch the ball, and it was likely that someone was going to break 900 yards and 6 TD's, and we put our money on the fact that it would be one of these two. Not Danny Amendola. Who...really didn't do that anyway, he was just the guy that...well...stayed healthy.
In my first draft of 2011 I waited until round 9 to take a QB. I took Sam Bradford. I've taken some heat for that, and if I write too much about him, I'll jinx myself. So...I'll just say this:
What do Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, and Brandon Lloyd have in common? They all were 1000 yard receivers in a Josh McDaniel Offense. Two of which were lead by Kyle Orton. They all also were split ends in that offense, which tend to be the focal point for Mr. McDaniels as the deep ball is a large part of a very aggressive, but balanced attack.
So who is the split end this year? Well....we...um....we don't know. We know that Michael Sims-Walker is the Flanker. We know that Danny Amendola is probably the slot WR. But....split end could be Donario Alexander, Donnie Avery, Laurent Robinson, Bob Gibson....or a host of others. In fact...Avery and Alexander are both hurt right now.
But Avery just has a strained hammy. Nothing big. And he also has 4.28/40 speed. That's fast. That's really, really fast. Laurent's injuries are a little more severe....so you can almost count him out. For now. Keep an eye on that battle.
Jacoby Jones, WR;
Going into his 3rd year in a position battle with a smaller, slower, and caucasioner Kevin Walters, there was an assumption that a significant amount of Schaub's predicted 4500 passing yards would be going Jones' way. They didn't. Houston found out that they could run....like...really, really well, and Walters showed that he had Hobbit like heart and fortitude to go along with that short stature, and held on to that #2 job. Jones finished with 500 yards and 3 TD's.
In 2011 we've completely forgotten Jones. For that matter, we've forgotten Walters, and he's actually starting. But here's why Jones is still a sleeper: Andre Johnson has been healthy for an awful long time by Andre Johnson standards. There are going to be alllllll kinds of injuries this year. Should we assume Johnson to be immune? No. We should not. So we should keep an eye on Jones.
Michael Bush, RB;
It's hard to really call Bush a "bust." For that matter, I don't know that he was a sleeper. But I can say many thought he would turn into a Bell Cow for an Oakland team that...in 2010...looked like they were headed in the right direction offensively, and had a very weak schedule. None of that was true. Oakland still sucked, and Bush was shoved to the side by a resurgent RunDMC.
So in 2011....we forget him. Even with RunDMC on the pre-season sidelines, we're not really drafting him. He's just a big back on the bad end of a timeshare with a crappy team. And that won't change. Unless... well....have you seen Oakland's schedule? Denver, Buffallo, Houston, Cleveland, San Diego, Detroit......
Maybe I should have qualified the entire Oakland team as a rebound sleeper. What if in his second year in the same offense Campbell finds his stride. (We've seen it before.) What if 3rd year receiver DHB and second year speedster Jacoby Ford step up. What if....what if Oakland EVER just took a lead. Would they turn to the frail McFadden to wind it down? No. They hand it to the man-beast known as Bush. And when McFadden does get hurt? That's a nice schedule to run against. Oakland can do some damage in the not-at-all-intimidating-except-maybe-San Diego AFC West, and Bush may be a major beneficiary.
CJ Spiller, RB;
I'm the least enthusiastic about this name, but...I need to write about more than one RB right? I could say Beanie Wells or Felix Jones, or a few other "busts" from last year...but we haven't forgotten them. Not the way we forgot Spiller. Last year we all assumed by week 6 that Buffalo would have no reason to show up on Sunday's except to give this guy 25 reps out of the backfield. For the most part....that was true. But...it's almost as if the organization collectively said "let's not subject CJ to this brutality just yet."
Now....there is little reason to expect that situation to change. Same coaches, same line, same division. Except...you know how every year there's that one team that has no reason whatsoever to be better, but they end up making the playoffs? That may be this team.
I have no reason whatsoever to think the Bills will be good. None. Neither do you. Which means...they may be that team. And if they are that team, it's because of something unforeseeable. And if it is unforeseeable.... Spiller is probably involved.
Montario Hardesty;
Peyton Hillis is on the cover of Madden. That's the only reason you need to draft Hardesty. He's still a highly skilled, relatively complete back. I bring up the Spiller argument. If you are a rebuilding Cleveland team....which back are you rebuilding with?
Alex Smith;
Nobody....and I mean nobody....is drafting Smith. Tim Tebow has a higher ADP than Alex Smith. Look...I'm not saying Smith will be a top 5 QB. He won't. And he wasn't going to be last year when you took him as the 12th overall QB between Cutler and Eli Manning. And you knew that last year.
But you thought....with Vernon Davis, and Crabtree...there's a chance he could be more than serviceable. He could be pretty good. Maybe not Peyton Manning good, but better than Eli Manning good.
I think he still can. All those weapons are still there surrounding him. He's got a new coach. The defense will improve...which means less pressure and more time of possession. There's alot to like about San Fran this year, and as they go...so goes their QB.
But that's baseball. Football is a different story. You pretty much get one shot. You make that roster....or you don't. You're a first time starting RB once. You're a 3rd year starting WR once. Nobody gives a shit if your 27, 28, whatever.
You are in...or you are out.
Except when you're not.
In 2010, there were several sleepers that we reached and pulled for....we hoped they would fall to us. We chuckled to ourselves at the thought of being able to trade our 3rd round pick because we had an 11th rounder that was going to take that slot. We laughed at the foolishness of those around us for not recognizing our genius!
And then they sucked. And now they are forever gone. Nothing but a mere whisper lost in the winds of the almost was and never will be.
But then a guy like Matt Schaub chucks the rock for 4700 yards a year after he was supposed to, or Cedric Benson becomes a yardage horse 3 years after he was supposed to be relevant, and you're like....oh yeah. That guy. Damn...shoulda drafted him.
And with that, I bring you the fantasy sleeper darlings of 2010 that DIDN'T pan out, and some reason not to forget them in 2011.
Devin Aromashoda, WR
I think I forgot a "u" in that name somewhere, but damned if I know where to put it. Remember this Bears WR? The one that finished very strong in 2009? The 6'2" 210 lb. beast of a man that is sneaky fast, and crazy explosive? The one that was supposed to step right into a Mike Martz offense and be off the charts good?
He finished 2010 with 10 receptions for 149 yards and 0 TD's. So.....he sucks.
But will he continue to suck? Well....he's in Minny now which promises to be a run first offense under Musgrave, so that doesn't give you alot of hope. That said:
The guys ahead of him on the depth chart are Percy Harvin (good but migraine prone), Bernard Berrian (not good and injury prone), and Mike Jenkins (Not good, and slow, and now old so you wish he would just get an injury and clear the way for someone that was better, or at least faster.) The ONLY reason Jenkins is ahead of him is because he already knows the Musgrave system.
So when you think about it.....Aromashoda is an injury away from taking his considerable explosiveness onto speed enhancing dome grass with a Strong Arm QB that is desperate to find a play-maker, and keeping that spot. That makes him worth looking at.
Donnie Avery/Laurent Robinson, WR;
In 2010, people looked at Robinson's excellent rookie production, and the speedy Avery walking into the third year, and shouted from the rooftops.....Meh...it's still the Rams. But we all agreed that someone had to catch the ball, and it was likely that someone was going to break 900 yards and 6 TD's, and we put our money on the fact that it would be one of these two. Not Danny Amendola. Who...really didn't do that anyway, he was just the guy that...well...stayed healthy.
In my first draft of 2011 I waited until round 9 to take a QB. I took Sam Bradford. I've taken some heat for that, and if I write too much about him, I'll jinx myself. So...I'll just say this:
What do Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, and Brandon Lloyd have in common? They all were 1000 yard receivers in a Josh McDaniel Offense. Two of which were lead by Kyle Orton. They all also were split ends in that offense, which tend to be the focal point for Mr. McDaniels as the deep ball is a large part of a very aggressive, but balanced attack.
So who is the split end this year? Well....we...um....we don't know. We know that Michael Sims-Walker is the Flanker. We know that Danny Amendola is probably the slot WR. But....split end could be Donario Alexander, Donnie Avery, Laurent Robinson, Bob Gibson....or a host of others. In fact...Avery and Alexander are both hurt right now.
But Avery just has a strained hammy. Nothing big. And he also has 4.28/40 speed. That's fast. That's really, really fast. Laurent's injuries are a little more severe....so you can almost count him out. For now. Keep an eye on that battle.
Jacoby Jones, WR;
Going into his 3rd year in a position battle with a smaller, slower, and caucasioner Kevin Walters, there was an assumption that a significant amount of Schaub's predicted 4500 passing yards would be going Jones' way. They didn't. Houston found out that they could run....like...really, really well, and Walters showed that he had Hobbit like heart and fortitude to go along with that short stature, and held on to that #2 job. Jones finished with 500 yards and 3 TD's.
In 2011 we've completely forgotten Jones. For that matter, we've forgotten Walters, and he's actually starting. But here's why Jones is still a sleeper: Andre Johnson has been healthy for an awful long time by Andre Johnson standards. There are going to be alllllll kinds of injuries this year. Should we assume Johnson to be immune? No. We should not. So we should keep an eye on Jones.
Michael Bush, RB;
It's hard to really call Bush a "bust." For that matter, I don't know that he was a sleeper. But I can say many thought he would turn into a Bell Cow for an Oakland team that...in 2010...looked like they were headed in the right direction offensively, and had a very weak schedule. None of that was true. Oakland still sucked, and Bush was shoved to the side by a resurgent RunDMC.
So in 2011....we forget him. Even with RunDMC on the pre-season sidelines, we're not really drafting him. He's just a big back on the bad end of a timeshare with a crappy team. And that won't change. Unless... well....have you seen Oakland's schedule? Denver, Buffallo, Houston, Cleveland, San Diego, Detroit......
Maybe I should have qualified the entire Oakland team as a rebound sleeper. What if in his second year in the same offense Campbell finds his stride. (We've seen it before.) What if 3rd year receiver DHB and second year speedster Jacoby Ford step up. What if....what if Oakland EVER just took a lead. Would they turn to the frail McFadden to wind it down? No. They hand it to the man-beast known as Bush. And when McFadden does get hurt? That's a nice schedule to run against. Oakland can do some damage in the not-at-all-intimidating-except-maybe-San Diego AFC West, and Bush may be a major beneficiary.
CJ Spiller, RB;
I'm the least enthusiastic about this name, but...I need to write about more than one RB right? I could say Beanie Wells or Felix Jones, or a few other "busts" from last year...but we haven't forgotten them. Not the way we forgot Spiller. Last year we all assumed by week 6 that Buffalo would have no reason to show up on Sunday's except to give this guy 25 reps out of the backfield. For the most part....that was true. But...it's almost as if the organization collectively said "let's not subject CJ to this brutality just yet."
Now....there is little reason to expect that situation to change. Same coaches, same line, same division. Except...you know how every year there's that one team that has no reason whatsoever to be better, but they end up making the playoffs? That may be this team.
I have no reason whatsoever to think the Bills will be good. None. Neither do you. Which means...they may be that team. And if they are that team, it's because of something unforeseeable. And if it is unforeseeable.... Spiller is probably involved.
Montario Hardesty;
Peyton Hillis is on the cover of Madden. That's the only reason you need to draft Hardesty. He's still a highly skilled, relatively complete back. I bring up the Spiller argument. If you are a rebuilding Cleveland team....which back are you rebuilding with?
Alex Smith;
Nobody....and I mean nobody....is drafting Smith. Tim Tebow has a higher ADP than Alex Smith. Look...I'm not saying Smith will be a top 5 QB. He won't. And he wasn't going to be last year when you took him as the 12th overall QB between Cutler and Eli Manning. And you knew that last year.
But you thought....with Vernon Davis, and Crabtree...there's a chance he could be more than serviceable. He could be pretty good. Maybe not Peyton Manning good, but better than Eli Manning good.
I think he still can. All those weapons are still there surrounding him. He's got a new coach. The defense will improve...which means less pressure and more time of possession. There's alot to like about San Fran this year, and as they go...so goes their QB.
