If you read my intro blog, I’m assuming you’ve had enough of me writing about you being a sad, sad example of a man. That’s not why you’re reading this. You’re reading this blog because you want some fantasy football advice.
It’s time to talk draft strategy.
If you’ve been following the NFL, you’ve realized that all the rules you are used to drafting by are out the window. If you think you are a genius because you finally realized that you don’t need to draft 2 RB’s in the first two rounds (which you should have realized three years ago) then good for you. But you’re not exactly ahead of the curve. My 11 year old niece knows that, and while you may have the mentality of someone that worships Justin Bieber and is learning how to use a maxi-pad for the first time, we’re looking to break those habits. So let’s get to some real draft strategy. Read my words here, absorb them, and THEN go take a 40 minute dump while reading about the 40th-45th ranked WR’s. You will have a much better idea of what you should be looking for during that time. No….not the Jergen’s….the proper fantasy stats. You can make your cock scream “GELATO” once the draft is over.
Rule #1: F HANDCUFFING YOUR RUNNING BACKS.
Look, if you have a deep 25 man roster because your commish loves to hoard potential breakout candidates (ummm….guilty) then by all means, use your 23rd pick on Darren Sproles. That said, I still think that’s a rookie move if it’s ONLY to back up Ryan Mathews. If you have questions about Mathews’s health, then move him down your draft list. Or, better yet….skip Mathews and ONLY draft Darren Sproles in round 20.
I’m not writing this to advise you not to draft Mathews. I love him this year. My point is, if you’re handcuffing someone, it’s normally to protect a first round pick. It’s a nice, safe strategy. F that. You’re better off protecting your lineup by drafting a potential breakout candidate and hoping they break out. You think anyone drafted Miles Austin last year as a hand-cuff? Was Rahard Mendenhall only drafted by guys that grabbed Willy Parker? Was Laurence “I-think-Bellicheck-hates-me-because-my-parents-didn’t-use-a-“W”-in-my-first-name” Maroney taken to “secure” their flex-spot if Sammy “everyone-hates-me-because-I-take-Maroney’s-carries” Morris went down? No. They were taken as potential breakout candidates. They were taken earlier than hand-cuffs should be taken, because RBBC’s have ramped up the value of the “backup.” You want to maximize your draft spot potential, not waste it on a guy that you’ll only play in a very specific situation. You’ll cut them anyway, and you’ve just wasted that pick. And if you’ve grabbed someone that’s injury prone relying on their backups stats to get you through the tough times, you’ve lost. The best strategy is to realize Marion Barber hurts himself a lot, avoid him in the first five rounds, and then draft Tashard Choice in the 17th. This brings me to my next point;
Rule #2: NO MATTER WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS, AVOID INJURY RISKS IN THE FIRST FIVE ROUNDS.
I know what you’re saying…….no shit. But admit it….you’re considering someone that’s an injury risk early in the draft. Look….someone drafted Brian Westbrook last year. Someone thought Ronnie Brown may go two consecutive seasons without major injury. And someone lost their fantasy leagues. However….someone also drafted Stephen Jackson and his 1400 rushing yards in 15 games. And there lies the problem. That’s why I’m writing this. There’s always that potential…..and if this is the season he stays healthy, do you really want to miss out?
Yes. Yes you do. Miss out. Don’t go to the party on Labor Day Weekend because you can’t afford a cab, and then sulk as you see facebook pictures of the awesome time you missed. Your best case scenario if you went another drunken-but-fun night out in a string of many over your life. Your worst case is you got VD from that fat chick you nailed in the bathroom, and then got a DWI on the way home. The risk does not justify the reward here. If you can’t stand the thought of missing out on a big pick, find someone even less fortunate than you, and laugh at them. Or cry about it to your therapist and blame it on the fact you heard your mother moaning upstairs when she had pity-sex with your one legged neighbor, so now you always root for the injured to make it happen. But don’t be the one to do it. Don’t make that pick. Do you know who you would have “settled” with if you passed on the injury plagued of your league in the first few rounds? Someone like Randy Moss, Peyton Manning, or one of the other guys that fell as you gambled on the high potential injury risks. You would have been just fine. At least you didn’t walk away with the STD/DWI combo known as Brian-Westbrook-2009.
Now I understand that if you avoid EVERY guy that’s had an injury, you’d be passing on the Andre Johnson’s, Tom Brady’s, and Matt Schaub’s of the draft. Am I really suggesting you pass these guys over?
Yyyyyuuuuup. Move on down your draft list. These kinds of gambles have a time and a place, but it’s not here. Yes……I know Schaub absolutely MADE some fantasy teams last year. But there’s a big difference between Schaub and Westbrook….and that leads me to my next rule;
Rule #3; START MAKING GAMBLES IN ROUND 6, AND KEEP ROLLIN’ THEM DICE.
When did you draft Schaub last year? Was it round 3? No? Really!?!?! Are you some kind of clairvoyant? Ohhh…..you’re not…you’re just one of a million guys that had the guts to start rolling the dice before his entire lineup was filled out. Now that makes sense.
Look, I had Schaub in almost every league last year. I believed in him, I saw the potential, and I ignored the injury risk. The big difference is I did it in round 8 instead of round 3. If you love a guy….I mean really think he’s a difference maker…than by all means, gamble early and gamble hard. JUST AS LONG AS IT’S AFTER ROUND 5. Admittedly, in almost every snake draft I used rounds 8 and 9 to take Cutler and Schaub, and then waited a few rounds to grab Orton. If I took one gamble….Cutler….I would have been screwed. But I didn’t. I set myself up with 5 solid players, and then grabbed all the potential I could. These rounds included guys like Ray Rice, the aforementioned Mendenhall, and Cedric Benson over other 8th round favorites like….Pittsburgh Defense, Ryan Longwell, and Donald Driver. I recommend you do the same. And while we’re talking about the first five rounds…..
Rule #4; DO NOT TAKE MORE THAN ONE RUNNING BACK IN THE FIRST THREE ROUNDS.
Running back is the deeper than your wife’s vagina was after she got a back stage pass to the Wu Tang Clan concert, and nobody is taking 3 in the first three rounds any more. Do them one better…..don’t take two. Now…..I’m not saying that WR, QB, and TE don’t have depth….they do. But you have to know how to use it. And I’m not saying you don’t need a top RB in the first three rounds. You do. I guess what I’m saying is….
RULE #5: THIS YEAR….MORE THAN EVER…YOU NEED TO BALANCE MAJOR POSITIONS.
As a disclaimer, I admit that I’ve always been a huge fan of the position carousel. Find the position with the most “sleeper” depth, load up everywhere else, and then grab a bunch of high potential guys to fill out the deepest position talent wise and celebrate when one of them pan out.
But you can’t do that this year. Don’t get me wrong, you will have to carousel some spots……but you need an anchor all over the field to win. You can’t afford to draft a stud to fill your flex spot, because this year EVERY position has some kind of depth. That means EVERY fantasy player will pick a position to carousel. That means that YOU cannot afford to punt WR’s or QB in order to stack 3 RB’s in the first three rounds. If you do, you will be competing for potential “carousel” players with everyone else in rounds 5-11, and be pissed as hell when Malcolm Floyd gets taken one spot before you were going to draft him. Furthermore, your anger will intensify as you realize Ahmad Bradshaw and LeSean McCoy are available in round 5, but you already spent your second and third round picks on Pierre Thomas and Knowshon Moreno.
By my count….and I won’t get into rankings, just trust me……there’s about 17 position anchors that are worthy of building your team around. About 5 QB’s, 5 WR’s, and 7 RB’s. And to be honest with you….even some of those guys I don’t love. That’s not even enough for two rounds worth of picks.
Now here’s the good news….they won’t all go in the first two rounds. Why? Because your friends are morons. They will make sure they have 2 RB’s in the first three rounds. Yes….they made the bold move of grabbing a WR in round 2…..maybe round 1. Maybe they went QB round 1, and then followed with RB, RB. Don’t do that. Go out, and get an anchor RB, WR, and a QB. With your fourth pick, grab the position with the least depth remaining….likely WR. Then…..carousel you’re remaining open spot. Maybe you want to go RB, WR, WR, QB. Maybe WR, RB, WR, QB. Fine….whatever….just make sure you’re not completely punting a position to go RB, RB, WR, WR. You will not like what you find at QB, be one of the suckers that HAS to take Cutler in round 5, and then watch Favre, Kolb, and every other QB you had planned on being part of your carousel fly off the board. We will discuss the Carousel later in a different article….like I said, you will be forced to take them, but for all intensive purposes you need to make sure that your RB1, WR1 and QB are in very good hands before you start playing around with matchup players.
There. You have the basics. Digest them, and we’ll talk some more big boy talk later. Just remember to check in regularly, and don’t be afraid to leave some comments and questions below.
