With week 2 in the rear view mirror, it's time to move on. We take what we've learned, and we apply it to the future. It's kind of like college. Or trying to beat level 4 of Zelda. If you didn't take some hard lessons, you wouldn't know to avoid sleeping with the drunk sociology majors, as they will always end up crying rape. Thankfully you were only blackballed from one sorority....and there's a whole season ahead of you. So what can we expect out of week 3? Here's some game by game breakdowns for you, and some sleepers along the way. You will not hear the names of Randy Moss, Ray Rice, or Tony Romo, unless they are an absolute sit. These are the guys that you start maybe 10% of the time, or are currently on your waiver wire.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
The only conceivable way Baltimore loses is if they beat themselves.
And they might.
Don't get me wrong....I'm still putting my money on the Birds over the Browns, but after facing two very tough, physical defenses, I think Baltimore may take this opportunity to instill some confidence in their young quarterback that they've invested so much in. Cleveland has allowed Maoki and Winslow to put up nice gains against them. Given the developing bond between Flacco and Heap, I'm thinking Baltimore may expose that. Also....it might be time to give Rice a bit of a break in the fourth quarter, which means more of a terrible, terrible Willis McGahee. Put it all together...and it's not necessarily a winning strategy.
But it's still the Browns........
Sleepers: Flacco has a good week as part of your Carousel, and I'd take Heap over several other options at TE this week, including the popular waiver wire add Aaron Hernandez. The best way to attack Baltimore is to try to go deep...so I see Cribbs and Maoqui getting some shots downfield, with Harris getting plenty of checkdowns.
Cincy at Carolina:
The Panthers have to win sooner or later. But not this week. Jimmy Clausen gives them no chance. That said....I'm still not sold on Cincy. They are returning to a run first team, but remember....the Panthers held Bradshaw to -8 yards in the first half against the Giants, and did a very nice job of completely bottling up the Pink Cadillac. Both teams needed to accomplish something through the air in order to effectively move on the ground. And you know who's made a career out of shredding zone defenses?
Sleepers: TO. You drafted him....this is the week you actually want to start him. He can kill a zone blitz with short fade routes and curls. Also keep an eye on Shipley as a frequent hot read, but again....he doesn't have the ability to break one like TO does. (Yes...he still does.) I don't see any sleepers in Carolina.
Dallas at Houston
If the Cowboys win, it's only because Kardashian dumped Austin, and the Diva curse is removed. I know...it's hard to imagine the vaunted Cowboys losing 3 in a row. You can point to a sloppy Houston defense, and trouble with the left tackle, and say that there is hope.
But what's more plausible.....The Cowboys losing their first 3 games, OR the Cowboys going to Houston, successfully bottling up both Arian Foster and Andre Johnson at Houston, who they have never, ever beat even when Houston sucked. Probably the former. The Cowboys can't blitz all game with Foster being the threat he is, (note the 69 yards receiving v. Washington off check-downs) and you can't single cover Johnson with Terrance Newman. Beating Houston will take great coaching....
....which eliminates Dallas.
Bernard Pollard is the best Safety Dallas has seen so far. That probably means less than 140 yards for Austin. I'm also staying far away from Kevin Walters this week with Michael Jenkins draped all over him. But as for sleepers....
Sleepers: Dez Bryant. Can he be considered a sleeper? Not really...but I like his matchup against the 5'9" McClain. If McClain can't use his speed, then he's not as effective, and his speed here is irrelevant. This week...sit whoever you have to sit because he's a definite start. Jacoby Jones will have his best week to date as the Cowboys have always had trouble with a talented 3rd receiver.
I would love to say that this is a great week for the Cowboys running backs because Houston hasn't seen this level of talent yet, but....I don't know which one would actually perform. I think we'll see a ton of the three headed monster against Houston, and after sorting out preseason injuries, they may finally be in football shape. That "option" attack would work against Houston's left side if Choice would get his head out of his ass and actually pitch the ball occasionally. My best guess is Felix Jones finally gets outside with some good lead blocking.
San Fran at KC
KC can't smash Thomas Jones between the tackles over and over again this week. This week has a Jamaal Charles feel to it. Honestly though, Vernon Davis should shred any team that gave up 64 yards to Ben Watson. Watch for KC to concentrate on shutting down Maoki seeing as Cassel hasn't shown he can throw to anyone else. That doesn't necessarily mean that he will throw to anyone else....it just means that San Fran is a very good Defense to start this week. That said, KC has been effective of taking the #1 WR out of games, so it may be a rough week for Josh Morgan.
Sleepers: Finally....Bowe and Crabtree justify their #2 WR draft spots. I know I just said Cassel can't throw, so let me explain. We saw the larger framed Mike Williams and Marques Colston post over 60 yards against the San Francisco D. I'm not talking who got in the endzone...I'm looking at total opportunities. This Bodes well for Dwayne Bowe. Against KC, on top of Ben Watson and Antonio Gates, we also saw Naanee and Cribbs play well against the KC secondary. That means small, fast Split Ends are doing well getting escaping line bumps and getting past the secondary. I'm getting the feeling KC safeties have Roy Williams/Ken Hamlinitis... good at hitting, bad at covering. This may be the week Crabtree justifies his draft spot, and Ginn Jr. has one of his two 40 yard TD receptions for the season.
Detroit at Minnesota
First off, AJ Smith is a dick. You can officially drop V-Jax. But even without a trade to boost team spirits, common says tells you that Minnesota is the team that will finally snap their winless streak. Both Forte and LeSean McCoy had very good games against them....so what does that mean for AP? On the flip side, P. Thomas and Ronnie Brown weren't exactly useless against Minnesota, but if Chicago can bottle up Best.....
That however is good news for Calvin Johnson as CB's have to move quicker off the bump in order to help with Best. Keep in mind though....there will be alot of hot reads as Shaun Hill may not make it out alive.
Sleepers: Wow...TE's are abundant. There will be alot of 2 TE sets to help with the Minny DE's, which turned out great for Pettigrew last week. I like him again in week 3. The Vikings however will run all day long. Tough to recommend anyone from the receiving corp.
Buffallo at New England;
Buffalo did a decent job against Brandon Marshall, and a very good job against Greg Jennings...but I wouldn't worry too much about Randy Moss. Either way, I like the Pats to run all day. They lost a great pass-protector in Faulk, and there's no reason to "open it up" against Buffalo.
Sleeper: When they met in December of 2009, the Pats ran 34 times compared to 23 pass attempts. Of course....most of those carries went to Maroney. I like Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis and Fred Taylor this week for a Brown/Williams like 60-70 yards each with a fairly even rotation. Any goal line work will likely go to Gronkowski at TE. (Sorry A. Hernandez fans....it's just the way it's going to go.) The big winner here though will be a Pats defense that should do alot of playmaking against a new QB.
Action Jackson seems to enjoy playing the Pats. He had 80 yards in both games in 2009. Of course, that's when there were only 2 RB's, and Chan Gailey wasn't busy turning the Bills into the worst pass first offense since Keanu Reeves QB'd the replacements. The Pats haven't dealt with real speed yet, and allowed LT to do some damage against them.....so this may be CJ Spillers week. Lets put it this way....if my decision is between the Pink Cadillac at Pitt, Michael Bush, CJ Spiller, and a retired Jim Brown....I'm taking Jim Brown. Behind him, I'm taking Spiller.
Atlanta at New Orleans:
This is a big game. Real big. Bad week to have Turner hurting. That said, he'll play. I just wonder how effectively. It's a weird matchup, because neither defense has seen a team that can throw the ball yet. But good runners have done well against NO. AP would have crossed 100 yards against NO if they just kept running. Gore did some damage. Atlanta will run, and run, and run. On the flip side we've seen NO move the ball in the air against two pretty good defenses. We've also seen Pierre Thomas have mediocre games against them. This should be no different. I'm not as worried about the lack of Reggie Bush, but it will create more spread receiver sets.
If you take away a 50 yard OT run by Mendenhall, and a 80 yard dash by Hightower, Atlanta hasn't allowed 100 yards rushing FOR THE SEASON. The question is....will Thomas or Wynn be able to break a 50 yarder? I'm not seeing it. New Orleans will be forced into a spread offense, and Thomas may get LESS carries than usual. Dunta Robinson will do just fine against Marques Colston, who was completely taken out of the Minnesota game. Seeing as Atlanta has officially declared that they will now use every passing down to throw to Roddy White....he will see a ton of coverage. But I don't know what that means for him. Atlanta is tough to blitz because of all the running they do. If NO can't blitz, they're not as effective at creating turnovers, which they heavily depend on.
I like Atlanta in this game.
Sleepers: The main benefactors of an injured Reggie Bush will be Lance Moore and Devery Henderson. I like them both this week. They'll be taking the hot reads and check downs, and Colston has a bad matchup. Even if Turner is healthy, Snelling will be used more, but I can't recommend starting him unless Turner is officially out. No real sleepers for ATL, they'll just do what they do best.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Fantasy Football Week 2 Notebook: Vick for MVP
I think there's something about the letter V that resonates differently between the sexes. As far as men are concerned...we love V words. There's something about words that start with V that's...well....awesome. Women though....it just seems the same words rub them a completely different way. It turns them off. Here are some words that men think are awesome, but seem to irritate women:
Vagina...ever try to use the word "Vagina" during dirty talk? Ever call your friend a Vagina while your gal is standing next to you? Apparently, the only time it's acceptable for a man to use this word is if he's A) a doctor, B) a health teacher, or C) Steve Carrel. (You gotta see Date Night. You'll want to marry Tina Fey, regardless of how unattractive you know she is in real life.)
Voluptuous....but it's only bad if we use it 3 times in the next 15 minutes after watching an episode of MadMen. When you have to switch sitting positions every time Christina Hendricks hits the screen, they notice.
Voltron...self explanatory.
Vick. It's okay to say that Vick belongs back in jail....but when you follow up "Vick" with "for MVP" around the female population....you will get more dirty looks than if you had your shoes on in a Shinto Temple. You're honestly better off recommending Mike Tyson for President than Mike Vick for MVP around the female gender. Yeah...rape sucks, but don't fuck with my puppy!
My favorite statement of this weekend came from my buddy Keating, who said "The NFL brought it on themselves by allowing him back in the league." If you can't automatically deduce what that conversation regarded, I would like to ask if you wouldn't mind carrying this bag of weed with you next time you fly down to see me. Thanks.
Vick will not be league MVP, but he did open some eyes against the juggernaut defense of....um....Detroit. Okay, it wasn't exactly an unstoppable force against an immovable object. But he'll be fun to talk about. Going around the league...plenty of teams gave us plenty to mention in this weeks notebook.
Arizona at Atlanta;
If there's anything this game proved, it's how good the Pittsburgh D really is. The Falcons treated the Cards like Hulk Hogan treats his women. They were rough, controlling, and secretly they wished the person lining up across from them was a man. Atlanta keeps my vote to be the NFC Superbowl representative. In the meantime....as you're reading this, Ken Wisenhunt is on his knees in front of Kurt Warner and trying to unzip his pants. However, this will be to no avail. If you've ever seen Brenda Warner, you understand that Kurt prefers his bitches to be more masculine than Ken.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Tony Gonzalez is officially not getting to 1000 yards this season. He was 5th in targets for the Falcons, meaning that even in the redzone, Matt Ryan is looking elsewhere, and this team has a serious commitment to justifying Roddy White's contract. His next two weeks are against New Orleans, and San Diego. I doubt either team will force Atlanta to throw frequently....but if Gonzalez can get a good game in their somewhere, trade him immediately.
LaRod Stephens Howling had 25 yards through the air, but didn't receive any carries. But you don't run much when you're down by 30+. If Beanie Wells isn't back, he may be a useful pickup against the Raiders in week 3.
We have our first in-season Stephen Williams sighting. 2 grabs for 26 yards. If there is a breakout player in Arizona....I'm maintaining it's Williams and his huge frame as opposed to Early Doucet. If Breaston or Fitzgerald go down...make him a priority.
Turner has a "mild groin strain." With New Orleans on the docket next week....Atlanta will make sure he's "healthy."
If you take out Hightower's 80 yard run, he's still under 4 yards per carry. He may be a nice piece of a package for someone desperate at RB in a trade, but it's tough to recommend him for a start.
Tampa at Carolina
John Fox officially doesn't give an F anymore. The stats suggest there was just no game plan for Freeman that didn't include a few wild throws that ended up as luck interceptions. Freeman ran well, threw efficiently, and I'm pretty sure he banged Fox's wife at half time for good measure. I've said before that Freeman has talent. If I can see that, Fox should be able to see that too. Fox is biding his time waiting for the Giants gig to open up. That said, I think the Giants may take the East, meaning Coughlin will keep the job. Have fun in Cleveland Coach Fox.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I spent alot of time wondering aloud before the season why everyone was so high on Stewart. He generally puts up acceptable numbers, but his real value depends on a DeAngelo Williams injury. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, but as long as Carolina has to pass in the second half of every game, you might want a new #2 RB.
Why is Mike Williams still available in 32% of fantasy leagues?
I'm done talking about Kareem Huggins. Therefore, he should finally get the ball next week if he's recovered from his injury. I'm guessing Cadillac goes down week 5.
Speaking of the Pink Cadillac.....49 carries this season....126 yards. That's about 3 yards a carry against a run D that gave up 82 yards to Thomas Jones, and 100+ yards to the Giants. Earnest Graham is looking better and better after catching 5 balls this weekend. That backfield situation isn't as settled as it looks.
The Clausen era begins. Poor Steve Smith. But it could be worse....he could be Dwayne Jarret. If Carolina is so determined to suck this year, why not get some draft picks from Minnesota for your underutilized but talented receiving corp?
Baltimore at Cincinnati
I don't know if this was a hiccup for Baltimore, or if Cincy's that good, but I'm not worried about the Ravens long term prospects. Yes....Flacco was Jamarcus Russel bad, but I'm not putting it all on him. Six non-catches by what's supposed to be your #2 WR will hurt your game-plan, and create a whole bunch of third and longs. There was still a nice TD pass to Mason, and good use of Heap and Rice. I'm confident this will get better with time. The same can be said about Cincy. The ball was spread all over the place, and Benson had a respectable game, but they couldn't punch it in against this Ravens D. After Pittsburgh in week 4, this team has several valuable players.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Jordan Shipley had another solid game, but they only look to him for short yardage. His longest catch was 11 yards. He'll get his fair share of targets, but won't see the endzone very frequently. Don't buy too high on him.
Housh....you're better than that. Next week you have Cleveland, and no excuses. If Housh doesn't do much in week 3, he's better off on your leagues wire than on your bench.
I no longer want to hear about Baltimore using a RBBC. Willis McGahee still sucks, and Ray Rice is still incredible. This is not a committee situation. This is 80% Rice, 20% everyone else.
Todd Heap was second in receptions for Baltimore, including a 19 yarder. It's time to take him seriously, and I like him for week 3.
With Carolina, Cleveland, and Tampa on Deck, it's time to make a move for TO. Teams have to worry about Gresham and Shipley, and need to shift coverage to OchoCinco. Cincy will see a ton of zone D's, and TO has made a career out of shredding them.
KC at Cleveland
Kansas City is like Courtney Love after her glam-makeover. Some aspects are appealing, but overall their just still too dirty to really be attractive. T. Jones with 22 carries? Why? Do you absolutely hate scoring? And Cleveland....I just won't have much to say about them this season.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Bring back Thigpen! Matt Cassel's performance officially proves how overrated Tom Brady is. He is not even worth a #3 QB spot on your roster right now. Unfortunately, that also downgrades Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers, and anyone else that depends on a ball thrown more than 8 yards.
Tony Maoki led the team in yards and receptions. That won't be the last time that happens this season. The TE position is getting ridiculously deep....but he could be a very valuable member of a Carousel.
Josh Cribbs finally got some looks. He will get many, many more as the season progresses. Cleveland will always be trailing, so Cribbs will always be getting looks for long completions.
I was having trouble coming up with a nickname for Jerome Harris and Peyton Hillis, but then I realized they don't deserve one. You can't trade them, and with Baltimore, Cincy, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh on deck....you can't use them. Save the four weeks of heartache and cut them now for someone with actual potential. (Chris Ivory? Anybody?)
Chicago at Dallas
Somewhere around 8pm on Sunday, it was disclosed that Kim Kardashian dumped Miles Austin.
I have no more hero's.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
There are no regularly useful Dallas RB's. I had a very strong feeling that Barber would be their leading rusher for week 2. I did not think that meant 31 total yards.
If the Cowboys kept pressure on Cutler they would have been fine. (Thanks again Wade Phillips.) Expect that to be the last time any team doesn't send 7 guys at him almost every play. Matt Forte is no threat on the ground, so there is nothing that will hold any team back from forcing 4 INT's a game. Cutler will be a great fantasy contributor, but he still has plenty of weeks ahead of him where he'll kill you. Time to sell high.
Maybe De-Kardashianizing the Cowboys locker room will lead to a win. Or maybe they've never beat Houston, and this doesn't seem like the best time to do it. That said....my money is still on them this weekend.
If you combine Witten and Bennet's numbers, you get one productive TE. Witten will put up yards this season, but expect another 2-4 TD's. Conversely, even though he got in the endzone, it's safe to cut Olsen given the TE depth out there right now.
Why is Roy Williams still on the field?
Earl Bennet replacing Aromashodu means great things for Devin Hester. Not for Earl Bennet.
This is your last chance to get Dez Bryant before he completely destroys Houston. The 5' 9" McCain will not be able to cover him on the sidelines. It may also be a nice time to try to pry Romo from the hands of his owner by consistently mentioning his 2 TD's so far. That will change. As far as I'm concerned, that just means he's saving his other 30 TD's for the last 14 games.
Philly at Detroit;
Kolb is still the man. The NFL is still very political. The Eagles can't afford to have Vick as the face of their franchise, and I'm sure there may be some pressure from the top of the NFL to make sure that doesn't happen. But he should have a good post lockout year in 2012 with Cincinnati. Detroit on the other hand is already everybody's favorite "surprise playoff pick" for next season.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I think Detroit's offensive identity is really starting to take shape. Let me ask you.....if you're starting a team from scratch, would you rather have Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Mike Turner, or Jahvid Best, Pettigrew and Calvin Johnson. I'd take the latter......
Speaking of Pettigrew....check out weeks 10-16 for Detroit and tell me he won't be a fantasy playoff factor. Even I thought Burleson may benefit from the Megatron double team, but it looks like Pettigrew is the man.
LeSean McCoy likes turf. Too bad he won't see it again until week 16 at Minny. Jahvid Best also likes turf. He's a nice option at home, and will likely give you top 12 RB stats this year.
Don't lose faith in Avant. He'll get plenty of opportunity with Kolb back in the lineup.
Miami at Minnesota;
Look...I'll say it again...Favre didn't JUST get old. He HAS been old. He just hasn't been as exposed since...well....2008. If Harvin is recovered by next week, he'll be a top option, V-Jax likely joins in week 6 against Dallas, and Sidney Rice is back in week 9. This is buy low time on all four of those guys. Conversely...you've seen everything you're going to see about Miami. Just 15 attempts by Henne, and it took a 50 yard dash for any RB to be relevant. The NFC North will be cruel to them. But heh...at least week 15 and 16 is Buffalo and Detroit.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Shiancoe > Tony Gonzalez. At least until Minny gets some receivers back.
If Peterson gets hurt, don't grab Gerhart. But if Albert Young is still hurt....still avoid Gerhart.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee:
Take away a holding penalty that negates an 85 yard Chris Johnson TD, and this is a very different game. Regardless of who's under center, Tennessee is very dangerous. Vince Young is still the man for Tennessee. At least for the first half of week 3. Part of me thinks the one guy that wants Big Ben to come back the most is actually Charlie Batch.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Week 6 doesn't just mean that fantasy leagues see the return of an additional great option at QB with Big Ben. It also means they get an additional great option at WR with Mike Wallace.
This week proved that Gage and Britt can still be solid fantasy options.....as long as Collins is under center.
After McFadden gave a big performance against Tennessee in week 1, I expected more out of Mendenhall. Be very wary of him if he's your #1 option right now.
Seattle at Denver:
It's like that interception on Seattle's opening drive reminded the entire team that they are supposed to suck. That's the last time I recommend Hasselback, and we're not too far away from the Charlie Whitehurst era. I will say though that the Seattle D is better than it looked, and while Orton may be methodical, the schedule suggests he'll remain productive week in and week out.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Slow your roll on Demaryius Thomas. He's talented, but he's still limited on his routes meaning he'll disappear in more games than he'll produce in.
Eddie Royal is making defenses look stupid. This kid has found his role, and will be productive going forward.
Deon Butler has cut out his spot as Seattle's top option. That really just means Seattle doesn't have a top option. But the diminutive speedster will be a nice compliment to Mike Williams going forward.
A Week 3 loss means Whitehurst in week 5. But I still like Seattle's chances.
Keep an eye on Maroney's health. Moreno isn't impressing anyone right now. I have a feeling Maroney is this years Beanie Wells, getting the heavier load by the end of the season.
Forsett disappeared in the second half, but still led the team in carries, and had 5.5 ypc. My guess is, if it's close he'll play alot. If it's not they'll keep him on the bench. He's going to be a very good start against very bad teams. Luckily he still has 4 more games against AZ and St. Louis.....as well as Oakland and KC on the docket....so his forecast is looking up.
St. Louis at Oakland;
I like Gradkowsi. It just seems fitting to me that the Raiders have a grizzled polish veteran QB back there. In the meantime, St. Louis continues to find new and interesting ways to not score.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I still don't know exactly what to expect out of Clayton, but I want him on my team. It's unlikely that every week his only 2 catches will result in TD's....but I think it's also unlikely he'll only get 2 catches every week. Oakland's pass D is better than you think, so I like him as a solid #2 this year.
Louis Murphy finally hit paydirt, and that won't be the last time. He's Oakland's deep threat, and I love him against weaker D's like St. Louis. Considering Arizona and Houston are next up, he's a nice add this week. He'll give you better, more consistent numbers than DHB.
I have no answer for your Michael Bush problem. I'm heavily invested in him this year, and that's proving to be a bad decision. There's just no way he gets more than 5-8 carries a game on his return without a McFadden injury. I'm just hoping he ends up being the goal line back....but how often will Oakland see the goal line?
Stephen Jackson < 12 other backs.
Danny Amendola is still your chain mover. Make sure to pick him up when you absolutely need 4 points exactly. But a decent option for PPR leagues.
New England v. NYJ
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!! F you Brady. I hope you've seen your last Superbowl. On the upside, your haircut suggests that you have a brilliant acting career ahead of you if they do another Charlie's Angels remake.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I have no answer for Shonn Greene. Hopefully he'll just be well rested for the second half of the season and then go apeshit again. Right now, I have alot more confidence in starting LT than I do Greene, but I'm guessing that will change as the season wears on.
Do not bank on seeing that Mark Sanchez performance again until 2012.
Braylon Edwards got arrested or hurt again or something. Whatever. At least Santonio Holmes has a full time gig when he gets back, but it's always tough to recommend any Jets receiver....even after last Sunday's performance.
BenJarvis Green-Ellis got the bulk of the carries, while rotating series with Taylor. Faulk is now hurt, so the Law Firm is worth a good hard look with Buffalo and Miami up next.
I know Wes Welker is Brady's woobie, but given the amount of targets he gets, the old Welker would have done more with them. Sell high. Now. He came back too soon, and I don't think he'll last 16 games.
We've seen this TE situation before out of NE. I still think Gronkowski gets the goal line work, but Hernandez will have more relevant games. Unfortunately, they will ultimately cancel each others value out. Either can make your week....but you might be better off with a consistent Maoki or Chris Cooley.
Jacksonville at San Diego;
I don't even know what this game told us. It left us with more questions than answers. Rivers had good stats. He only missed 7 times out of 29. He had 3 TD's and broke 300 yards. But he still threw 2 INT's. Is that cause for worry? The only Jags player worth starting was Sims-Walker, who was completely missing from week 1. Who is Jacksonville's QB now? How "minor" is Ryan Mathews injury? Don't get too down on the Jags D. They are very young, and they'll progress as the season goes on. Courtney Greene looked like a monster, but it's tough to play well when turnovers give MJD the chance to be 6th in tackles. (It's true! Google it!)
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Ummm....Buster Davis? Really? What happened to Naanee? I think if you have a reasonably sized corner guarding him....Naanee's going to disappear. Keep that in mind for your weekly matchups.
Tolbert > Mathews. I own Mathews in a league, and I just wish the injury was more severe so I could safely dump him. I don't think he'll be rushed back, and when he comes back how will that ankle treat him? Will he still carry the load? I'm worried. Very worried. But I look like a genius by saying Best will have a better season.
Don't tell me MJD's not hurt. They couldn't get him off the field fast enough when the game was kinda-sorta out of reach. I rarely recommend handcuffing....but if you own MJD, you really need Jennings over a guy like Felix Jones on your bench.
Mike Thomas is pure speed. He hasn't seen the endzone yet, but he's still going to have a hell of a season.
Houston at Washington
Where there any surprises here? Oh...yeah....Kevin Walter. That...and the score was as close as it was. These are two paper thin pass defenses...you would expect Houston to come out on top. But you would expect them to come out on top by 14, not 3. Nice job Washington. Keep your chin up.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Start every QB, WR, and TE you can against Houston and Washington from here forward.
Is there a Texan you don't want to own right now? Kevin Walters....damn. Time to take him seriously. Very, very seriously. At least until Schaub gets hurt. It looks like having Jacoby on the field with him is allowing for matchups with safeties....and he's winning.
Schaub is being hailed as an MVP. His ankle/knee/back/shoulder all disagree.
Arian Foster still got 138 total yards. It's looking very likely he'll be a top 3 RB. You can't key on him...otherwise that passing game will rip you up.
Jacoby Jones finally got into the endzone. Told ya.
Cooley and Santana Moss are turning into every week options very quickly. I would love a Cooley/Pettigrew/Heap/Maoki/A.Gonzales combination somewhere. If you have a tradeable high profile TE, and can get a couple of these guys off the wire....fill a need somewhere else.
Portis YPC = 2.5. Those TD's masked a very, very bad game. Johnson = -7 yards. Again. We're getting closer to Ryan Torain every week.
Giants at Indy
Nice job with the helmet there Jacobs. You just gave NY every reason in the world to continue to ignore you. I never, ever, ever want to hear again that Brady is better than Peyton Manning. His stats weren't other-wordly, but he just tore that defense apart. It was like watching Ron Jeremy direct a porn. Even if he's not the star of the show.....you know the results will excite you. When he retires, I would really, really like him to coach the Cowboys. Or perhaps run for president and fix our economy so I don't have so much time for blogging. Manning I mean....not Jeremy. Giants fans....don't lose hope. You'll still likely win the division. You just got outclassed by a master.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Lost amidst the blowout was how well Eli actually performed. The sacks hurt, and only 50% completions.....but he still got off a couple bombs for TD's under ridiculous pressure. I'm really starting to believe that he's turned the corner, and we can expect 4000 and 26-28 annually. Indy just had his number, and while Bradshaw is good......he's not Arian Foster.
Speaking of Bradshaw....he's now officially a very good #2 RB that should provide bankable points on a weekly basis.
I don't know what to think about Steve Smith....but it doesn't look good for him this year. With Nicks and Manningham taking the deep ball work, he's relegated to a possession role. Still useful, but not what you drafted.
Pierre Garcon is officially irrelevant. Those week 1 drops will haunt him all season. Sorry Garcon....but Manning is only looking at guys that catch balls regularly.
Apparently Addai and Brown can in fact be useful. You'll just never know which one, and never know when.
New Orleans at San Francisco;
So safe to say that San Fran has a decent run defense. Also safe to say that New Orleans has a decent pass defense. But.......short of Frank Gore, nobody was very inspiring, and that may be the theme of these teams going forward.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
You know you're good when 254 yards and 2 TD's on a 75% completion percentage is blase. So is the life of Drew Brees.
Hi Alex....meet Michael. Mr. Crabtree is your best reciever. I know it's been awhile since you've had reason to speak, but now that everyone is healthy, you might want to try running some drills together. If you don't figure it out against KC next week....you're not going to figure it out. In the meantime, if you own Crabtree...Morgan had 6 receptions for 70 yards against New Orleans. If you have some space, grab him now. If he's the primary guy against KC....then he's the primary guy for 2010.
With Reggie Bush hurt, it's time to make Chris Ivory a waiver priority. I don't care how hurt he is. Atlanta is a tough test.....but I like him for week 4 when Carolina comes to town.
Forget Marques Colston against Atlanta. My guess is Lance Moore finally gets his shot, taking the check down TD's that normally go Reggie Bush's way.
Vagina...ever try to use the word "Vagina" during dirty talk? Ever call your friend a Vagina while your gal is standing next to you? Apparently, the only time it's acceptable for a man to use this word is if he's A) a doctor, B) a health teacher, or C) Steve Carrel. (You gotta see Date Night. You'll want to marry Tina Fey, regardless of how unattractive you know she is in real life.)
Voluptuous....but it's only bad if we use it 3 times in the next 15 minutes after watching an episode of MadMen. When you have to switch sitting positions every time Christina Hendricks hits the screen, they notice.
Voltron...self explanatory.
Vick. It's okay to say that Vick belongs back in jail....but when you follow up "Vick" with "for MVP" around the female population....you will get more dirty looks than if you had your shoes on in a Shinto Temple. You're honestly better off recommending Mike Tyson for President than Mike Vick for MVP around the female gender. Yeah...rape sucks, but don't fuck with my puppy!
My favorite statement of this weekend came from my buddy Keating, who said "The NFL brought it on themselves by allowing him back in the league." If you can't automatically deduce what that conversation regarded, I would like to ask if you wouldn't mind carrying this bag of weed with you next time you fly down to see me. Thanks.
Vick will not be league MVP, but he did open some eyes against the juggernaut defense of....um....Detroit. Okay, it wasn't exactly an unstoppable force against an immovable object. But he'll be fun to talk about. Going around the league...plenty of teams gave us plenty to mention in this weeks notebook.
Arizona at Atlanta;
If there's anything this game proved, it's how good the Pittsburgh D really is. The Falcons treated the Cards like Hulk Hogan treats his women. They were rough, controlling, and secretly they wished the person lining up across from them was a man. Atlanta keeps my vote to be the NFC Superbowl representative. In the meantime....as you're reading this, Ken Wisenhunt is on his knees in front of Kurt Warner and trying to unzip his pants. However, this will be to no avail. If you've ever seen Brenda Warner, you understand that Kurt prefers his bitches to be more masculine than Ken.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Tony Gonzalez is officially not getting to 1000 yards this season. He was 5th in targets for the Falcons, meaning that even in the redzone, Matt Ryan is looking elsewhere, and this team has a serious commitment to justifying Roddy White's contract. His next two weeks are against New Orleans, and San Diego. I doubt either team will force Atlanta to throw frequently....but if Gonzalez can get a good game in their somewhere, trade him immediately.
LaRod Stephens Howling had 25 yards through the air, but didn't receive any carries. But you don't run much when you're down by 30+. If Beanie Wells isn't back, he may be a useful pickup against the Raiders in week 3.
We have our first in-season Stephen Williams sighting. 2 grabs for 26 yards. If there is a breakout player in Arizona....I'm maintaining it's Williams and his huge frame as opposed to Early Doucet. If Breaston or Fitzgerald go down...make him a priority.
Turner has a "mild groin strain." With New Orleans on the docket next week....Atlanta will make sure he's "healthy."
If you take out Hightower's 80 yard run, he's still under 4 yards per carry. He may be a nice piece of a package for someone desperate at RB in a trade, but it's tough to recommend him for a start.
Tampa at Carolina
John Fox officially doesn't give an F anymore. The stats suggest there was just no game plan for Freeman that didn't include a few wild throws that ended up as luck interceptions. Freeman ran well, threw efficiently, and I'm pretty sure he banged Fox's wife at half time for good measure. I've said before that Freeman has talent. If I can see that, Fox should be able to see that too. Fox is biding his time waiting for the Giants gig to open up. That said, I think the Giants may take the East, meaning Coughlin will keep the job. Have fun in Cleveland Coach Fox.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I spent alot of time wondering aloud before the season why everyone was so high on Stewart. He generally puts up acceptable numbers, but his real value depends on a DeAngelo Williams injury. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, but as long as Carolina has to pass in the second half of every game, you might want a new #2 RB.
Why is Mike Williams still available in 32% of fantasy leagues?
I'm done talking about Kareem Huggins. Therefore, he should finally get the ball next week if he's recovered from his injury. I'm guessing Cadillac goes down week 5.
Speaking of the Pink Cadillac.....49 carries this season....126 yards. That's about 3 yards a carry against a run D that gave up 82 yards to Thomas Jones, and 100+ yards to the Giants. Earnest Graham is looking better and better after catching 5 balls this weekend. That backfield situation isn't as settled as it looks.
The Clausen era begins. Poor Steve Smith. But it could be worse....he could be Dwayne Jarret. If Carolina is so determined to suck this year, why not get some draft picks from Minnesota for your underutilized but talented receiving corp?
Baltimore at Cincinnati
I don't know if this was a hiccup for Baltimore, or if Cincy's that good, but I'm not worried about the Ravens long term prospects. Yes....Flacco was Jamarcus Russel bad, but I'm not putting it all on him. Six non-catches by what's supposed to be your #2 WR will hurt your game-plan, and create a whole bunch of third and longs. There was still a nice TD pass to Mason, and good use of Heap and Rice. I'm confident this will get better with time. The same can be said about Cincy. The ball was spread all over the place, and Benson had a respectable game, but they couldn't punch it in against this Ravens D. After Pittsburgh in week 4, this team has several valuable players.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Jordan Shipley had another solid game, but they only look to him for short yardage. His longest catch was 11 yards. He'll get his fair share of targets, but won't see the endzone very frequently. Don't buy too high on him.
Housh....you're better than that. Next week you have Cleveland, and no excuses. If Housh doesn't do much in week 3, he's better off on your leagues wire than on your bench.
I no longer want to hear about Baltimore using a RBBC. Willis McGahee still sucks, and Ray Rice is still incredible. This is not a committee situation. This is 80% Rice, 20% everyone else.
Todd Heap was second in receptions for Baltimore, including a 19 yarder. It's time to take him seriously, and I like him for week 3.
With Carolina, Cleveland, and Tampa on Deck, it's time to make a move for TO. Teams have to worry about Gresham and Shipley, and need to shift coverage to OchoCinco. Cincy will see a ton of zone D's, and TO has made a career out of shredding them.
KC at Cleveland
Kansas City is like Courtney Love after her glam-makeover. Some aspects are appealing, but overall their just still too dirty to really be attractive. T. Jones with 22 carries? Why? Do you absolutely hate scoring? And Cleveland....I just won't have much to say about them this season.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Bring back Thigpen! Matt Cassel's performance officially proves how overrated Tom Brady is. He is not even worth a #3 QB spot on your roster right now. Unfortunately, that also downgrades Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers, and anyone else that depends on a ball thrown more than 8 yards.
Tony Maoki led the team in yards and receptions. That won't be the last time that happens this season. The TE position is getting ridiculously deep....but he could be a very valuable member of a Carousel.
Josh Cribbs finally got some looks. He will get many, many more as the season progresses. Cleveland will always be trailing, so Cribbs will always be getting looks for long completions.
I was having trouble coming up with a nickname for Jerome Harris and Peyton Hillis, but then I realized they don't deserve one. You can't trade them, and with Baltimore, Cincy, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh on deck....you can't use them. Save the four weeks of heartache and cut them now for someone with actual potential. (Chris Ivory? Anybody?)
Chicago at Dallas
Somewhere around 8pm on Sunday, it was disclosed that Kim Kardashian dumped Miles Austin.
I have no more hero's.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
There are no regularly useful Dallas RB's. I had a very strong feeling that Barber would be their leading rusher for week 2. I did not think that meant 31 total yards.
If the Cowboys kept pressure on Cutler they would have been fine. (Thanks again Wade Phillips.) Expect that to be the last time any team doesn't send 7 guys at him almost every play. Matt Forte is no threat on the ground, so there is nothing that will hold any team back from forcing 4 INT's a game. Cutler will be a great fantasy contributor, but he still has plenty of weeks ahead of him where he'll kill you. Time to sell high.
Maybe De-Kardashianizing the Cowboys locker room will lead to a win. Or maybe they've never beat Houston, and this doesn't seem like the best time to do it. That said....my money is still on them this weekend.
If you combine Witten and Bennet's numbers, you get one productive TE. Witten will put up yards this season, but expect another 2-4 TD's. Conversely, even though he got in the endzone, it's safe to cut Olsen given the TE depth out there right now.
Why is Roy Williams still on the field?
Earl Bennet replacing Aromashodu means great things for Devin Hester. Not for Earl Bennet.
This is your last chance to get Dez Bryant before he completely destroys Houston. The 5' 9" McCain will not be able to cover him on the sidelines. It may also be a nice time to try to pry Romo from the hands of his owner by consistently mentioning his 2 TD's so far. That will change. As far as I'm concerned, that just means he's saving his other 30 TD's for the last 14 games.
Philly at Detroit;
Kolb is still the man. The NFL is still very political. The Eagles can't afford to have Vick as the face of their franchise, and I'm sure there may be some pressure from the top of the NFL to make sure that doesn't happen. But he should have a good post lockout year in 2012 with Cincinnati. Detroit on the other hand is already everybody's favorite "surprise playoff pick" for next season.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I think Detroit's offensive identity is really starting to take shape. Let me ask you.....if you're starting a team from scratch, would you rather have Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Mike Turner, or Jahvid Best, Pettigrew and Calvin Johnson. I'd take the latter......
Speaking of Pettigrew....check out weeks 10-16 for Detroit and tell me he won't be a fantasy playoff factor. Even I thought Burleson may benefit from the Megatron double team, but it looks like Pettigrew is the man.
LeSean McCoy likes turf. Too bad he won't see it again until week 16 at Minny. Jahvid Best also likes turf. He's a nice option at home, and will likely give you top 12 RB stats this year.
Don't lose faith in Avant. He'll get plenty of opportunity with Kolb back in the lineup.
Miami at Minnesota;
Look...I'll say it again...Favre didn't JUST get old. He HAS been old. He just hasn't been as exposed since...well....2008. If Harvin is recovered by next week, he'll be a top option, V-Jax likely joins in week 6 against Dallas, and Sidney Rice is back in week 9. This is buy low time on all four of those guys. Conversely...you've seen everything you're going to see about Miami. Just 15 attempts by Henne, and it took a 50 yard dash for any RB to be relevant. The NFC North will be cruel to them. But heh...at least week 15 and 16 is Buffalo and Detroit.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Shiancoe > Tony Gonzalez. At least until Minny gets some receivers back.
If Peterson gets hurt, don't grab Gerhart. But if Albert Young is still hurt....still avoid Gerhart.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee:
Take away a holding penalty that negates an 85 yard Chris Johnson TD, and this is a very different game. Regardless of who's under center, Tennessee is very dangerous. Vince Young is still the man for Tennessee. At least for the first half of week 3. Part of me thinks the one guy that wants Big Ben to come back the most is actually Charlie Batch.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Week 6 doesn't just mean that fantasy leagues see the return of an additional great option at QB with Big Ben. It also means they get an additional great option at WR with Mike Wallace.
This week proved that Gage and Britt can still be solid fantasy options.....as long as Collins is under center.
After McFadden gave a big performance against Tennessee in week 1, I expected more out of Mendenhall. Be very wary of him if he's your #1 option right now.
Seattle at Denver:
It's like that interception on Seattle's opening drive reminded the entire team that they are supposed to suck. That's the last time I recommend Hasselback, and we're not too far away from the Charlie Whitehurst era. I will say though that the Seattle D is better than it looked, and while Orton may be methodical, the schedule suggests he'll remain productive week in and week out.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Slow your roll on Demaryius Thomas. He's talented, but he's still limited on his routes meaning he'll disappear in more games than he'll produce in.
Eddie Royal is making defenses look stupid. This kid has found his role, and will be productive going forward.
Deon Butler has cut out his spot as Seattle's top option. That really just means Seattle doesn't have a top option. But the diminutive speedster will be a nice compliment to Mike Williams going forward.
A Week 3 loss means Whitehurst in week 5. But I still like Seattle's chances.
Keep an eye on Maroney's health. Moreno isn't impressing anyone right now. I have a feeling Maroney is this years Beanie Wells, getting the heavier load by the end of the season.
Forsett disappeared in the second half, but still led the team in carries, and had 5.5 ypc. My guess is, if it's close he'll play alot. If it's not they'll keep him on the bench. He's going to be a very good start against very bad teams. Luckily he still has 4 more games against AZ and St. Louis.....as well as Oakland and KC on the docket....so his forecast is looking up.
St. Louis at Oakland;
I like Gradkowsi. It just seems fitting to me that the Raiders have a grizzled polish veteran QB back there. In the meantime, St. Louis continues to find new and interesting ways to not score.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I still don't know exactly what to expect out of Clayton, but I want him on my team. It's unlikely that every week his only 2 catches will result in TD's....but I think it's also unlikely he'll only get 2 catches every week. Oakland's pass D is better than you think, so I like him as a solid #2 this year.
Louis Murphy finally hit paydirt, and that won't be the last time. He's Oakland's deep threat, and I love him against weaker D's like St. Louis. Considering Arizona and Houston are next up, he's a nice add this week. He'll give you better, more consistent numbers than DHB.
I have no answer for your Michael Bush problem. I'm heavily invested in him this year, and that's proving to be a bad decision. There's just no way he gets more than 5-8 carries a game on his return without a McFadden injury. I'm just hoping he ends up being the goal line back....but how often will Oakland see the goal line?
Stephen Jackson < 12 other backs.
Danny Amendola is still your chain mover. Make sure to pick him up when you absolutely need 4 points exactly. But a decent option for PPR leagues.
New England v. NYJ
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!! F you Brady. I hope you've seen your last Superbowl. On the upside, your haircut suggests that you have a brilliant acting career ahead of you if they do another Charlie's Angels remake.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I have no answer for Shonn Greene. Hopefully he'll just be well rested for the second half of the season and then go apeshit again. Right now, I have alot more confidence in starting LT than I do Greene, but I'm guessing that will change as the season wears on.
Do not bank on seeing that Mark Sanchez performance again until 2012.
Braylon Edwards got arrested or hurt again or something. Whatever. At least Santonio Holmes has a full time gig when he gets back, but it's always tough to recommend any Jets receiver....even after last Sunday's performance.
BenJarvis Green-Ellis got the bulk of the carries, while rotating series with Taylor. Faulk is now hurt, so the Law Firm is worth a good hard look with Buffalo and Miami up next.
I know Wes Welker is Brady's woobie, but given the amount of targets he gets, the old Welker would have done more with them. Sell high. Now. He came back too soon, and I don't think he'll last 16 games.
We've seen this TE situation before out of NE. I still think Gronkowski gets the goal line work, but Hernandez will have more relevant games. Unfortunately, they will ultimately cancel each others value out. Either can make your week....but you might be better off with a consistent Maoki or Chris Cooley.
Jacksonville at San Diego;
I don't even know what this game told us. It left us with more questions than answers. Rivers had good stats. He only missed 7 times out of 29. He had 3 TD's and broke 300 yards. But he still threw 2 INT's. Is that cause for worry? The only Jags player worth starting was Sims-Walker, who was completely missing from week 1. Who is Jacksonville's QB now? How "minor" is Ryan Mathews injury? Don't get too down on the Jags D. They are very young, and they'll progress as the season goes on. Courtney Greene looked like a monster, but it's tough to play well when turnovers give MJD the chance to be 6th in tackles. (It's true! Google it!)
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Ummm....Buster Davis? Really? What happened to Naanee? I think if you have a reasonably sized corner guarding him....Naanee's going to disappear. Keep that in mind for your weekly matchups.
Tolbert > Mathews. I own Mathews in a league, and I just wish the injury was more severe so I could safely dump him. I don't think he'll be rushed back, and when he comes back how will that ankle treat him? Will he still carry the load? I'm worried. Very worried. But I look like a genius by saying Best will have a better season.
Don't tell me MJD's not hurt. They couldn't get him off the field fast enough when the game was kinda-sorta out of reach. I rarely recommend handcuffing....but if you own MJD, you really need Jennings over a guy like Felix Jones on your bench.
Mike Thomas is pure speed. He hasn't seen the endzone yet, but he's still going to have a hell of a season.
Houston at Washington
Where there any surprises here? Oh...yeah....Kevin Walter. That...and the score was as close as it was. These are two paper thin pass defenses...you would expect Houston to come out on top. But you would expect them to come out on top by 14, not 3. Nice job Washington. Keep your chin up.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Start every QB, WR, and TE you can against Houston and Washington from here forward.
Is there a Texan you don't want to own right now? Kevin Walters....damn. Time to take him seriously. Very, very seriously. At least until Schaub gets hurt. It looks like having Jacoby on the field with him is allowing for matchups with safeties....and he's winning.
Schaub is being hailed as an MVP. His ankle/knee/back/shoulder all disagree.
Arian Foster still got 138 total yards. It's looking very likely he'll be a top 3 RB. You can't key on him...otherwise that passing game will rip you up.
Jacoby Jones finally got into the endzone. Told ya.
Cooley and Santana Moss are turning into every week options very quickly. I would love a Cooley/Pettigrew/Heap/Maoki/A.Gonzales combination somewhere. If you have a tradeable high profile TE, and can get a couple of these guys off the wire....fill a need somewhere else.
Portis YPC = 2.5. Those TD's masked a very, very bad game. Johnson = -7 yards. Again. We're getting closer to Ryan Torain every week.
Giants at Indy
Nice job with the helmet there Jacobs. You just gave NY every reason in the world to continue to ignore you. I never, ever, ever want to hear again that Brady is better than Peyton Manning. His stats weren't other-wordly, but he just tore that defense apart. It was like watching Ron Jeremy direct a porn. Even if he's not the star of the show.....you know the results will excite you. When he retires, I would really, really like him to coach the Cowboys. Or perhaps run for president and fix our economy so I don't have so much time for blogging. Manning I mean....not Jeremy. Giants fans....don't lose hope. You'll still likely win the division. You just got outclassed by a master.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Lost amidst the blowout was how well Eli actually performed. The sacks hurt, and only 50% completions.....but he still got off a couple bombs for TD's under ridiculous pressure. I'm really starting to believe that he's turned the corner, and we can expect 4000 and 26-28 annually. Indy just had his number, and while Bradshaw is good......he's not Arian Foster.
Speaking of Bradshaw....he's now officially a very good #2 RB that should provide bankable points on a weekly basis.
I don't know what to think about Steve Smith....but it doesn't look good for him this year. With Nicks and Manningham taking the deep ball work, he's relegated to a possession role. Still useful, but not what you drafted.
Pierre Garcon is officially irrelevant. Those week 1 drops will haunt him all season. Sorry Garcon....but Manning is only looking at guys that catch balls regularly.
Apparently Addai and Brown can in fact be useful. You'll just never know which one, and never know when.
New Orleans at San Francisco;
So safe to say that San Fran has a decent run defense. Also safe to say that New Orleans has a decent pass defense. But.......short of Frank Gore, nobody was very inspiring, and that may be the theme of these teams going forward.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
You know you're good when 254 yards and 2 TD's on a 75% completion percentage is blase. So is the life of Drew Brees.
Hi Alex....meet Michael. Mr. Crabtree is your best reciever. I know it's been awhile since you've had reason to speak, but now that everyone is healthy, you might want to try running some drills together. If you don't figure it out against KC next week....you're not going to figure it out. In the meantime, if you own Crabtree...Morgan had 6 receptions for 70 yards against New Orleans. If you have some space, grab him now. If he's the primary guy against KC....then he's the primary guy for 2010.
With Reggie Bush hurt, it's time to make Chris Ivory a waiver priority. I don't care how hurt he is. Atlanta is a tough test.....but I like him for week 4 when Carolina comes to town.
Forget Marques Colston against Atlanta. My guess is Lance Moore finally gets his shot, taking the check down TD's that normally go Reggie Bush's way.
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