Fantasy Football Advice

I know.  The title isn't compelling.  But it is SEO friendly.  It's Friday at 4:49pm.  I have to kill 11 minutes before walking out.  So here is a quick thought on the upcoming drafts.  I may develop this more later:

Last year I said you should *gasp* stay away from RB's in the first 2 rounds.  Why?  Because starting in round 3 there was Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw, Arian Foster, McFadden, etc.  So if you listened to me and used picks 3, 5, 6, 7, and 9 on RB's...you probably hit some of the aforementioned backs.  You could even take your Ronnie Brown/Felix Jones lumps and come out just fine...and you avoided the Steven Jacksons, Shown Greene's and Ryan Mathews of the world.

This year....you need to use your first three picks on RB's.  Why?  Because:

I'm just not seeing the Bradshaws, McFadden's, and Foster's out there.  Round 4 and 5 aren't filled with "backs that have shown promise and may thrive in their new roles."  It's full of "we have no idea if this guy will even play, or if he's any good."  Ahmad Bradshaw in 2010 is a very different risk than Beanie Wells 2011.  Hell....Beanie Wells 2010 is a different risk than Beanie Wells 2011.  And this one isn't as shiny.

QB is crazy, crazy, crazy deep.  Deep as I can remember. 

There are alot of sleeper WR's.  It's come full circle from 2006.

Ok....it's 5:01pm.  Seeya Monday.

Chris Johnson vs Adrian Peterson: The Second Pick in Fantasy Football

I understand why you may be confused as to why we are starting with Chris Johnson vs Adrian Peterson.  Is it really THAT assumed that Arian Foster should be taken first overall?  Shouldn't the debate be Arian Foster vs Chris Johnson vs Adrain Peterson?

Here's a fun fact for you: 

• Number of searches in Google for Chris Johnson vs Adrian Peterson over the past month:  720
• Number of searches in Google for Chris Johnson vs Arian Foster:  0
• Number of searches in Google for Adrian Peterson vs Arian Foster:  0

Pretty funky huh?  Then go look at the average draft positions so far this year. 

• #1:  Arian Foster (1.25).  That's close to a lock.
• #4:  Jamaal Charles (4.22).  That is in cement. 

However....Adrian Peterson?  ADP of 2.86.  Chris Johnson?  3.14.  In other words....there's a debate there.  And there absolutely, positively should be.  Kind of.

First off...let me say this:  Arian Foster should drop to number three.  In fact....he SHOULD drop to number 5 behind Jamaal Charles and Michael Vick, but you are human, and therefore essentially risk averse.  If you take Foster with the first pick, you won't seem stupid.  Even if he sucks, "noone could blame you" for taking him with that pick.  So why risk it?

Well....he won't suck.  It is however the wrong decision.  And you are stupid if you make it.  Why?  3 reasons:

1)  Vonta Leech (Houston's 2010 Fullback) is now a Raven.

2)  James Casey (Houston's 2011 Fullback) is more of a ball-carrier than a blocker.

3)  James Casey was a minor league baseball player before he signed on for football.  Position?  Pitcher.

He was a fucking pitcher.  Great.  Here's to hoping the Cowboys sign Jabba Chamberlien's fat ass to block for the brittle 1-2-3 punch of Jones/Choice/Murray. The fact is every three years Texas gets a running back, that was picked in fantasy football round 5 (or off the waiver wire) and does great things.  The following year they are picked in the first round of every fantasy football league.  And then what happens?  Well...let me ask you....where are you picking Steve Slaton or Dominick Davis in this years draft? 

But I digress.  The fantasy football playing masses in this small August sample size have made their opinion known, so I will stop berating them for being stupid.  And I will move on.

The number two pick should be Chris Johnson.  Actually, the number 1 pick should be Chris Johnson.  Here's why;

Adrian Peterson has been the safest play at RB for four years running.  Not dominant in the way LT2 or Priest Holmes, or Marshall Faulk was dominant...but he'll be a top 5 back every year.  If you have owned him in a keeper league, you should thank him.

And you can cut him now.

Why?  Because out of those players I just mentioned, none of them...NONE of them had 5 great years.  Neither did Stephen Davis, Brian Westbrook, Emmit Smith....pick a name.  4 years.  Then a significant slide. 

Now...it's not always the RB.  Offensive lines deteriorate, QB's get replaced Coaches get moved around, offensive schemes change, etc.  And how many of those things are happening in Minnesota right now?  All of them. 

Now...will Johnson face some of those issues as well?  Yes.  But has his offensive line gotten worse?  No.  And will the offensive scheme change?  Not really.  And will Hasselback do a better job of getting him the ball in the flats than Young?  Yes. 

So there you have it.  Debate settled.  I have the third pick in my draft, and I'm hoping Johnson falls. And if he doesn't....I'm taking Jamaal Chares.