Fantasty Football Outlook: 15 Things You Need to Know About the NFC South

So...my previous posts were an attempt to start going team by team.  But...I ain't got that kind of time.  So here's 20 things you need to know about the NFC South

1)  Mark Ingram?  Mike Turner?  DeAngelo Williams?  All good.  The best Fantasy Running Back in the AFC South?  LeGarrette Blount.  The added pass rushers to an already decent defense means they won't miss Talib as much as you'de think.  This is a team built for turnovers, which means plenty of clock decimating short yardage play calling...perfect for a chain moving RB like Blount.  Add in a young offensive line that should make strides, and you have an incredible value late in round 2, early in round 3.  You could do much worse for your #2 back.

2)  I personally think there is something about the New Orleans home field conditions that make it impossible for running backs to stay healthy.  Remember....the guy that replaces Darren Sproles production when he gets hurt isn't Ingram, Ivory, or Thomas.  It's Lance Moore. 

3)  42 passes in a pre-season game?  42?  Okay...forget what I said about Atlanta previously.  A new offensive philosophy, a new deep threat, and a dome friendly schedule means Matt Ryan should officially be no lower than #9 on your draft board...maybe as high as #7. 

4)  I can't think of a more overrated fantasy QB than Josh Freeman right now.  I know it's pre-season, be he's done nothing to show that he's progressed from last year.  Look at 2010's schedule.  Cake.  Look at 2011's.  Not cake.  He finishes in the bottom half of all QB's.

5)  Speaking of last years schedule....take a quick look at Mike Williams game log.  Over 60 yards agains Cincy, St. Louis, Carolina, Detroit and Atlanta.  So...basically, if you take out Atlanta, he sucked against good teams.  Plus I expect Tampa to throw LESS this year.  I'm not expecting a repeat of 2010, and for where he's being drafted, you should take a pass.

6)  I'm flip-flopping on Turner.  The second best RB in the South for Fantasy purposes will be Jason Snelling.  Take him late, and just wait for week 4.

7)  You tell me when Devery Henderson will have a big game.  Seriously.  He never has trade value because his big games are too unpredictable, even when Colston takes his obligatory 3 weeks off with whatever injury will plague him in 2011.  You can't trust him for spot starts.  If you draft him, you are starting him for 13 games, and hoping 6 of them pay off big before you finally cut him out of frustration.  I'd rather have Julio Jones at the same draft position.

8)  3 guys to target in round 13-16:  Jason Snelling, Greg Olsen, Arelious Benn.  Don't give me this Briscoe crap.  Benn is too high a draft pick with too much potential to be usurped for a full 2010.  He's 6'2", and his speed is a much better compliment to Williams than the slower/handsy Briscoe.

9)  I know for the past two seasons we've looked at Steve Smith, and said:  "someone has to catch the ball right?"  The answer for the last two seasons has been:  No.  Noone in Carolina has to catch the ball.  However, Smith has dropped considerably in the draft.  Do I expect 2008 numbers?  No.  But I don't think it will be 2011 either.  As your sifting through the injury risk round 5/6 WR's in your draft because you went QB early....don't forget his name.

10)  Anyone that thinks Cam Newton may run enough to be valuable in his rookie season, please take a look at Vince Young's rookie year.  Newton is not Vick.  The only person that is Vick, is Vick.  And maybe Randall Cunningham.  Who..coincidentally may be better today than Newton.

11)  Speaking of Newton...it's worth noting that D. Anderson has moved to #2 on the depth chart.  Don't draft him...but it's worth noting.  Especially when considering the aforementioned Steve Smith.  (It's good for Smith. Trust me.)

12)  Tony Gonzalez is done as a starting fantasy TE.  I know they will pass more.  It won't be to him.

13)  Harry Douglas may be this years Lance Moore.

14)  I'm shying away from D'Angelo Williams.  The whole NFC South has a very dome heavy schedule.  That makes for a ton of RB injuries.  I still love Blount because of the lack of tread on those tires and a clear #1 role....but I'm shaky on any other starting RB's.

15)  Don't draft J. Stewart.  He's still going as a #3 RB...which is too high.  But make sure to get him in a trade package later.  He's actually healthy, and he'll have some GIANT games this year, and the wisdom of resigning Williams will be heavily questioned.

Fantasy Football 2011: New Orleans Saints Fantasy Team Notes

The New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Futures:

Variety of Trove:  Treasure.  Kinda.

Did the Saints just sign Orlin Kreutz?  Seriously?  Could that line get any better?  Would it be possible to draft 5 or 6 Saints to dominate my fantasy league?

Maybe the better question is....do you want to?

The Saints are built to be an offensive machine.  They are who we look to when we can't make our own decision.  Flyer on a WR?  Lance Moore looks good.  Maybe Devery Henderson.  Strong #2 WR?  Marques Colston.  Or wait....is he a #1?  Or...isn't he a breakout candidate?  Or isn't every Saint a breakout candidate every year?  The fact is, we often look to the Saints as being full of fantasy treasure.  But quick question:  Name one player outside of Colston to gain more than 1000 yards.  Give up?  Deuce McCallister.

In 2006. 

That's a looooooong time for a team with such a great offense to go without producing anyone that could be referred to as a "Fantasy Stud."  Last year everyone had Pierre Thomas on their radar.  The year before?  Lance Moore.  Before that it was Reggie Bush.  Even Colston has only hit double digit TD's once in his career.  (11 in 2007.)  The other double digit TD man?  Moore had 10 in 2008.  There's hasn't been a RB with more than 9 TD's or 800 yards rushing in New Orleans since they dropped the Deuce in '06.

You can blame the system all you want.  Again...the Saints are built to be an offensive machine.  It is very true that Sean Payton loves to spread the love around.  But here's my theory:  That dome sucks.  Noone can stay healthy.  Even Colston has had issues staying healthy.  Hell.....if he was at full strength for 45 of the last 48 games, we could be talking about the future Hall of Famer as opposed to the most proficient cog in the Sean Payton Wheel.  So if you ask me if Pierre Thomas, or Ingram, or Ivory, or Henderson, or Moore, or Colston, or Sproles, are good draft picks, I will say "Yes.  They are Saints, and they play most of their games indoors this year, so the games they play in, they will excel in."  But if you ask me if any of them will play more than 13 games... I will say no.  They play most of their games indoors this year....so most will not play in more than 12 games.

The Saints are built to be an offensive machine:  one that offers you no more than a host of flex players.  Choose wisely.

Fantasy Player Notes

• Drew Brees will outscore Aaron Rodgers.  
• Sean Payton's version of the Coryell offense is easily one of the more successful bastardizations of it to hit a football field.  But it lives and dies with Drew Brees.  I've read a few articles about how "The NFL caught up with Payton's scheme last year."  That's crap.  Nobody caught up with that offense.  A decrease in defensive turnovers lead to a shorter average time of possession.  Combine that with a small injury here and there, and Brees just had a bit of a numbers correction, and still finished 6th in scoring for QBs.  Will the Saints run more?  Sure...but Brees will be on the edge of the elites again...right in front of Aaron Rodgers.

• Mark Ingram is the largest beneficiary of a more "run heavy" mentality, but is still a flex back.
• Payton has realized that when his defense isn't playing like a SuperBowl caliber turnover machine...you need something more to kill a clock than 5 yard dumps to Moore.  It might also be helpful to make a safety play within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage.  Hence....Mark Ingram.  
• Ingram is the only RB worth drafting as he'll be used to set up the pass, and run out the clock.  He'll likely have 6 or so very big games over the course of the year, mixed in with some garbage.  If you do draft him....you better handcuff with Thomas, or you'll be looking for a new #2 back come week 7
• Thomas will absolutely play.  He'll vulture a few TD's, and gain some yards here and there.  But think of him this way:  He'll split carries with Ingram in a "Marion Barber/Julius Jones" way.  Ingram is the Marion Barber, while Thomas is the Julius Jones.  Now.....throw Sproles for receiving situations.  Sucks don't it.

• Draft Colston as a low #1 WR.  Don't take any other NO receivers.
• Colston will only get 1000 yards and 8 TD's this year.  That said...those numbers will be enough to be within the top 12 of your league for WR's.  
• Henderson/Moore/et. all will still light it up for 5 games each.  You  don't draft guys for 5 games.  Especially when you don't know when they will show up.

• Jimmy Graham will go 700/4.
• There is no precedent for TE's in Payton's scheme.  Jimmy Graham is hyper talented, and you know of his 300 yards and 5 TD's in the last 4 games of the season.  But let me ask you what's more likely:  that after a host of RB injuries, they started using their TE in an unprecedented fashion, and his numbers will go back to normal over the course of a full season.....OR.....that pace will continue making him the first TE ever to break 20 TD's in a season. Honestly....I think that having Sproles there will hurt his value as well.  700/4 is nothing to sneeze at, but maybe not what you were hoping for.

Fantasy Football 2011: Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Team Notes

Is there any kind of trove that isn't treasure, or does treasure have that shit on lockdown?

I ask because every year entire teams can come out of nowhere to provide a trove....treasure or shit... of fantasy players. Nobody saw Bruce/Holt/Warner as round 1 picks in 2002, and noone expected Brady to throw 50 TD's in 2007, making Wes Welker and Ben Watson relevant.  In 2010 we found reason to pick up players from the Tampa Bay offensive unit not named Cadillac, and grabbed everyone we could find from Philly.  (C'mon....don't act like you knew....I got McCoy in round 3 in most leagues, Maclin off waivers, and noone drafted Vick.)  Conversely, the shit trove known as the Dallas Cowboys gave us the top rated TE, and a pile of flex players that couldn't stay healthy.

Parody is one of the great assets of the NFL.  As coordinators and free agents find new homes, philosophies change and talent develops, your 4-12 team can be relevant come playoff time.

Over this shortened off-season, 23 coordinators switched positions.  We've just had a free-agent frenzy.  Predicting your fantasy draft based on 2010 numbers is about as accurate and effective as a Tim Tebow defensive read.  (Meaning not at all accurate, or effective.)  So let's take this opportunity to break down the NFL conference by conference, look at the changes teams have made, and find some troves. The dart I threw dictates that we will start with the.......


2011 NFC South Fantasy Football Team Analysis:

The NFC South is a very intriguing division.  Home of traditional fantasy powerhouse New Orleans, this division also gives us a run based team with a new Head Coach and QB, the developing Freeman/Blount/Williams triplets, and an Atlanta team that has given us a 100+ reception WR....that promises to put MORE emphasis on the pass.

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Futures:

Variety of Trove:  Treasure

Where to begin with the Falcons.  Hmmm...how about here:  The Atlanta Falcons are going to the Superbowl.  I know I said the same thing last year, but this year I'm actually more positive of this.  Okay...now that I've said that:

Be very, very careful in how you draft Falcons players.  You may have spent the past week preparing for your fantasy drafts, and hearing all about how the Falcons will pass more, and bumping Matt Ryan into the first or second tier of QB's, tabbing Roddy White as a first round pick, and seriously considering drafting Julio Jones over the Bryants, Maclins, and Welkers of the world.

Don't do it.  The Falcons will not pass that much more.  Let me repeat....the Falcons will not pass that much more.  Ask Mike Mularkey:  http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2011/08/03/qa-mike-mularkey-discusses-plans-for-the-offense/  I know the established #1, talented rookie WR combo smacks of a 1998 Minnesota Vikings team........but it's not built that way.

The Falcons will pass further.  They will go deep.  They will attempt to create big plays.  But further does not equal more.  Further equals further.

This is still a Mike Mularkey offense.  He is an amazing offensive coordinator, but his bread and butter is the run.  Look at his Pittsburgh/Buffallo/Miami history.  Now....he has an incredible knack for using players unique skill sets to make big plays.  But...think Hines Ward/Randel El, or Eric Moulds bad year/Lee Evans good year....not exactly Moss and Carter.

Lastly...take a look at the schedule.  Overall.....it's not a bad schedule.  (No schedule that includes the Panthers twice is.)  It could very easily be 14 wins.  However....the passing schedule?  It's kind of brutal.  Squaring off against the NFC North, and the AFC South, with Philly sprinkled in for good measure, It's chock-fulla defenses that feature pass rushers and elite cornerbacks, and offenses that...well....you're not really going to outgun.  But you can run on them.  Oh...you can run on them.  Atlanta opponents combined gave up the highest amount of rushing yards in 2010.  That bodes well for the run.  And so....

• Downgrade Roddey White into Round 3-4:
• I know you think I'm nuts...and he's still a top 10 WR...but he's not the 2010 Roddy White.  He'll be the incredibly frustrating, small game/big game Greg Jennings-ish WR of 2009.  Julio is a much better option than Jenkins was, and will be sharing the downfield duties out of the Z that White commanded from the split-end spot.  White will be good, but he won't have 100+ catches again, or the consistent yards that come with it.  If you're taking a WR late round 1/early round 2, don't let it be White.  He won't pay in that spot.

• Jump all over Michael Turner at the end of Round 1:
• I know I'm stating the obvious, but the fact is I'm seeing Turner slip into round 2, as options like McFadden and Gore are getting picked up before him.  As MJD proves healthy, Rashad Mendenhall gets more press, and news of an improved Atlanta passing attack has spread, Turner's ADP has dropped to 10 for RB's.  That's crap.  He's still a fantasy anchor, and has a better schedule than the rest of the backs in his tier.  Once the "big 5" backs are gone....turn your attention his way.

• Take Jason Snelling over Jacquizz Rodgers:
• That is to say, take a good, hard look at him by the end of the draft.  IF Turner goes down...he will be the most valuable property on the wire, with a cake schedule, and 3 down ability.  Ignore JacqJizz....he's not grasping the offense, and he's showing that this preseason.  There's a reason the Falcons went back after Snelling in mid-August....and that's because JacqJizz isn't cutting it.

• Don't over hype Julio Jones:
• Is he the real deal?  Yes.  But he's not Randy Moss either.  Don't crank your expectations too high...but he will have some big games.  You will just have to take some bad along with them.  Don't overdraft him, but if he's there in round 7....not a bad deal.

• Tony Gonzalez is becoming an afterthought:
• There's a reason they cut Peele, and kept Kelley as a backup TE.  They need blockers.  They will use the TE's to block more than ever in order to set up big plays and reverses.  While Gonzalez is the unquestioned starter, his receiving numbers may dip into the 400 range as he drops into protection more frequently.

• Harry Douglas is fast:
• I've always loved this guy.  He's a quick, small little slot back with big play potential.  You should not draft him.  But you should keep an eye on him.  He may be the Randel El in this offensive unit.

• Matt Ryan is still...well....Matt Ryan.
• Matt Ryan is a very solid QB.  Would I want him as a backup?  Yes.  But there is very little reason to think that he's going to be much better than his 3700 yard 28/9 performance of 2010.  That makes him a very low #1, high #2 QB.  Keep Rothlesburger and Schaub in front of him on your draft list.
  

Fantasy Football 2011: The Forgotten Sleepers

Just when you think there's no way Alex Gordon will fill his potential, he finally has a 20 HR, 40 Double, .285 season.  And so it is with sleepers.

But that's baseball.  Football is a different story.  You pretty much get one shot.  You make that roster....or you don't.  You're a first time starting RB once.  You're a 3rd year starting WR once.  Nobody gives a shit if your 27, 28, whatever.

You are in...or you are out.

Except when you're not.

In 2010, there were several sleepers that we reached and pulled for....we hoped they would fall to us.  We chuckled to ourselves at the thought of being able to trade our 3rd round pick because we had an 11th rounder that was going to take that slot.  We laughed at the foolishness of those around us for not recognizing our genius!

And then they sucked.  And now they are forever gone.  Nothing but a mere whisper lost in the winds of the almost was and never will be.

But then a guy like Matt Schaub chucks the rock for 4700 yards a year after he was supposed to, or Cedric Benson becomes a yardage horse 3 years after he was supposed to be relevant, and you're like....oh yeah.  That guy.  Damn...shoulda drafted him.

And with that, I bring you the fantasy sleeper darlings of 2010 that DIDN'T pan out, and some reason not to forget them in 2011.

Devin Aromashoda, WR
I think I forgot a "u" in that name somewhere, but damned if I know where to put it.  Remember this Bears WR?  The one that finished very strong in 2009?  The 6'2" 210 lb. beast of a man that is sneaky fast, and crazy explosive?  The one that was supposed to step right into a Mike Martz offense and be off the charts good?

He finished 2010 with 10 receptions for 149 yards and 0 TD's.  So.....he sucks.

But will he continue to suck?  Well....he's in Minny now which promises to be a run first offense under Musgrave, so that doesn't give you alot of hope.  That said:

The guys ahead of him on the depth chart are Percy Harvin (good but migraine prone), Bernard Berrian (not good and injury prone), and Mike Jenkins (Not good, and slow, and now old so you wish he would just get an injury and clear the way for someone that was better, or at least faster.)  The ONLY reason Jenkins is ahead of him is because he already knows the Musgrave system.

So when you think about it.....Aromashoda is an injury away from taking his considerable explosiveness onto speed enhancing dome grass with a Strong Arm QB that is desperate to find a play-maker, and keeping that spot.  That makes him worth looking at.

Donnie Avery/Laurent Robinson, WR;
In 2010, people looked at Robinson's excellent rookie production, and the speedy Avery walking into the third year, and shouted from the rooftops.....Meh...it's still the Rams.  But we all agreed that someone had to catch the ball, and it was likely that someone was going to break 900 yards and 6 TD's, and we put our money on the fact that it would be one of these two.  Not Danny Amendola.  Who...really didn't do that anyway, he was just the guy that...well...stayed healthy.
 
In my first draft of 2011 I waited until round 9 to take a QB.  I took Sam Bradford.  I've taken some heat for that, and if I write too much about him, I'll jinx myself.  So...I'll just say this:

What do Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, and Brandon Lloyd have in common?  They all were 1000 yard receivers in a Josh McDaniel Offense.  Two of which were lead by Kyle Orton.  They all also were split ends in that offense, which tend to be the focal point for Mr. McDaniels as the deep ball is a large part of a very aggressive, but balanced attack. 

So who is the split end this year?  Well....we...um....we don't know.  We know that Michael Sims-Walker is the Flanker.  We know that Danny Amendola is probably the slot WR.  But....split end could be Donario Alexander, Donnie Avery, Laurent Robinson, Bob Gibson....or a host of others.  In fact...Avery and Alexander are both hurt right now.

But Avery just has a strained hammy.  Nothing big.  And he also has 4.28/40 speed.  That's fast.  That's really, really fast.  Laurent's injuries are a little more severe....so you can almost count him out.  For now.  Keep an eye on that battle.

Jacoby Jones, WR;
Going into his 3rd year in a position battle with a smaller, slower, and caucasioner Kevin Walters, there was an assumption that a significant amount of Schaub's predicted 4500 passing yards would be going Jones' way.  They didn't.  Houston found out that they could run....like...really, really well, and Walters showed that he had Hobbit like heart and fortitude to go along with that short stature, and held on to that #2 job.  Jones finished with 500 yards and 3 TD's.

In 2011 we've completely forgotten Jones.  For that matter, we've forgotten Walters, and he's actually starting.  But here's why Jones is still a sleeper:  Andre Johnson has been healthy for an awful long time by Andre Johnson standards.  There are going to be alllllll kinds of injuries this year.  Should we assume Johnson to be immune?  No.  We should not.  So we should keep an eye on Jones.

Michael Bush, RB;
It's hard to really call Bush a "bust."  For that matter, I don't know that he was a sleeper.  But I can say many thought he would turn into a Bell Cow for an Oakland team that...in 2010...looked like they were headed in the right direction offensively, and had a very weak schedule.  None of that was true.  Oakland still sucked, and Bush was shoved to the side by a resurgent RunDMC.

So in 2011....we forget him.  Even with RunDMC on the pre-season sidelines, we're not really drafting him.  He's just a big back on the bad end of a timeshare with a crappy team.  And that won't change.  Unless... well....have you seen Oakland's schedule?  Denver, Buffallo, Houston, Cleveland, San Diego, Detroit......

Maybe I should have qualified the entire Oakland team as a rebound sleeper.  What if in his second year in the same offense Campbell finds his stride.  (We've seen it before.)  What if 3rd year receiver DHB and second year speedster Jacoby Ford step up.  What if....what if Oakland EVER just took a lead.  Would they turn to the frail McFadden to wind it down?  No.  They hand it to the man-beast known as Bush.  And when McFadden does get hurt?  That's a nice schedule to run against.  Oakland can do some damage in the not-at-all-intimidating-except-maybe-San Diego AFC West, and Bush may be a major beneficiary.

CJ Spiller, RB;
I'm the least enthusiastic about this name, but...I need to write about more than one RB right?  I could say Beanie Wells or Felix Jones, or a few other "busts" from last year...but we haven't forgotten them.  Not the way we forgot Spiller.  Last year we all assumed by week 6 that Buffalo would have no reason to show up on Sunday's except to give this guy 25 reps out of the backfield.  For the most part....that was true.  But...it's almost as if the organization collectively said "let's not subject CJ to this brutality just yet."

Now....there is little reason to expect that situation to change.  Same coaches, same line, same division.  Except...you know how every year there's that one team that has no reason whatsoever to be better, but they end up making the playoffs?  That may be this team.

I have no reason whatsoever to think the Bills will be good.  None.  Neither do you.  Which means...they may be that team.  And if they are that team, it's because of something unforeseeable.  And if it is unforeseeable.... Spiller is probably involved.

Montario Hardesty;
Peyton Hillis is on the cover of Madden.  That's the only reason you need to draft Hardesty.  He's still a highly skilled, relatively complete back.  I bring up the Spiller argument.  If you are a rebuilding Cleveland team....which back are you rebuilding with?

Alex Smith;
Nobody....and I mean nobody....is drafting Smith.  Tim Tebow has a higher ADP than Alex Smith.  Look...I'm not saying Smith will be a top 5 QB.  He won't.  And he wasn't going to be last year when you took him as the 12th overall QB between Cutler and Eli Manning.  And you knew that last year.

But you thought....with Vernon Davis, and Crabtree...there's a chance he could be more than serviceable.  He could be pretty good.  Maybe not Peyton Manning good, but better than Eli Manning good.

I think he still can.  All those weapons are still there surrounding him.  He's got a new coach.  The defense will improve...which means less pressure and more time of possession.  There's alot to like about San Fran this year, and as they go...so goes their QB.

Fantasy Football Draft 2011: Quarterback Strategy

Yesterday I got a text from my buddy telling me he was grabbing a quarterback with his round 2 pick.  He was lying.  He has to be lying.  At least I hope he's lying.  For his own sake.  Here is a short list of the dumbest, most life altering statements ever to come out of the mouths of my friends and family in no particular order:

1)  High School is hard.  I think I'll drop out.

2)  Congratulate us!  We're having our fourth baby! 

3)  I don't know why I got kicked out of our dart league.  My comment wasn't THAT racist!

4)  I don't like Guinness.  Do you have anything else?  (Context:  We were at the Guinness factory.)

5)  I think I'll use one of my first 4 picks on a quarterback in 2011.

So.....that last one was paraphrasing, but you get my point.

Over the past few years I've adopted the mindset that you need a QB in the first 3 rounds.  Somewhere right after Tom Brady followed Peyton's 50 TD effort with a 50 TD effort of his own.  The fact is, they're the highest scoring players on your roster, and having one of the top 3 can provide you a tremendous advantage.

The one year I didn't follow that was in 2008.  In 2008, I thought QB was very, very deep, and went high on wideouts.  I waited on QB's and drafted a young guy (Rodgers), a situational change guy (Kurt Warner) and a steady Vet coming off injury.  (Steve Burlein.)  By week 3 I cut Burlein and watched Warner and Rodgers tear up the leage, trading Rodgers for key pieces later in the season.

This year presents the same opportunity. 

This is the year where we are coming off of a lockout.  This is the year where any changes in receiving corps, coaches, defenses, alignments, philosophies, quarterbacks, HGH suppliers and foot cream medications can have drastic, unforseen effects.  Brady has not synced with 8 5.  (That's english for ocho cinco.)  Brees relies on timing and quick reads.  Romo hasn't been around in awhile.  We have no idea what TRUE strength of schedule may be.  This position will be VOLATILE, and you don't want to spend that high a pick on that unknown a factor.

Let's look at the ADP for the top 20 QB's:

1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	27	6	14.17
2	Michael Vick	QB	PHI	31	10	15.48
3	Drew Brees	QB	NO	32	10	33.14
4	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	29	7	36.09
5	Peyton Manning	QB	IND	35	13	39.09
6	Tom Brady	QB	NE	34	11	39.54
7	Tony Romo	QB	DAL	31	8	53.84
8	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	26	3	66.36
9	Matt Schaub	QB	HOU	30	7	68.41
10	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	29	7	71.40
11	Josh Freeman	QB	TB	23	2	73.16
12	Sam Bradford	QB	STL	23	1	89.79
13	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	23	2	92.35
14	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	30	7	92.38
15	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	26	3	104.29
16	Jay Cutler	QB	CHI	28	5	108.99
17	Matt Cassel	QB	KC	29	6	124.49
18	Kevin Kolb	QB	ARI	26	4	129.23
19	Tim Tebow	QB	DEN	23	1	134.11
20	Mark Sanchez	QB	NYJ	24	2	137.24
21	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	BUF	28	6	144.75
22	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	22	R	164.76
23	Kyle Orton	QB	DEN	28	6	165.15
24	David Garrard	QB	JAX	33	9	174.83
25	Colt McCoy	QB	CLE	24	1	177.77

Tony Romo....in Round 5.  Round 5!  Now...maybe that normally happens.  I don't know.  I normally draft him before the end of round 3.  But that seems like a pretty good deal.  But....don't take it him.  Take another WR.  Maybe an RB if Vereen is available. 

Now...assuming you're in a 12 team league because that is the only size that makes sense to play in (sorry...but if you're in a 10 team league you have no reason to trade ever, unless YOU are the person getting the 1 superstar, and giving up the 2 very good players to get him, and a 14 team league is too many to cover bye's properly without forcing a ridiculous trade) we'll give you time to get 2 RB's, 2WR's, and a flex or TE.  Then we turn our attention to QB's:

Guys to target in rounds 6-8:

Ben Roethlesburger:  Every other year Big Ben seems fluctuate from 20-35 TD's.  (Not more yards....just more TD's.)  This is that year.  His receivers are familiar.  No big changes...we all know the playbook.  Plus it's safe to let him be a star again, and he has a full 16 games.  Go for it.

Sam Bradford:  Look at his numbers with Mark Clayton, vs. without.  The second year QB would have been a top 10 guy last year if anyone with talent on that team stayed healthy, and he gets Donnie Avery back from injury to go along with Mike Sims-Walker.  And he has the same crappy defenses to carve through this year.  I like him.  Alot.

Eli Manning:  Taking Manning isn't about his ceiling.  It's about his floor.  And his floor is relatively high.  Not a bad safety net for some gambles later on.

But in rounds 6-8 don't draft:

Matt Ryan:  Julio Jones is a rookie.  Rookies suck.  Tony Gonzalez is old.  Old guys suck.  And Roddy White won't catch 115 again.  He's very, very good....but his 2010 numbers are not sustainable.  In truth....there's really no legitimate logic behind why I don't think Ryan will have a great season.  Just my gut telling me it's not sustainable.

Matt Schaub or Matt Stafford:  I group them together as I wouldn't draft them for the same reason.  Health.  Why roll that dice over the options I listed above?  Is there more upside?  Better schedules?  No.  There isn't.  And with all the other options...why bother.

Josh Freeman;  This offense is still feeling themselves out a little.  Freeman was up and down last year, and I expect more of the same in 2011.  Give him one more year.

Rounds 9-11

Go after:

Jay Cutler:  I hear you laughing already....but year 2 in a Martz offense, and he finally has a #1 WR, and a RB that can pass block.  Big things are ahead for him.

Joe Flacco:  It appears to be a pretty cake schedule. 

Don't Touch

Kevin Kolb:  In yesterday's practice he was reportedly running to the sideline after every play call to review the playbook.  Not in love with him.

Matt Cassel:  For an explanation, please see Ryan, Matt above.  Do you trust Bowe 2 years in a row?  Me neither.  Too many things went right for the Chiefs last year for it to happen again.  Last year Todd Haley seemed to think the only way he could beat the big boys was to get overly aggressive with trick/unexpected playcalling as opposed to letting your talent go tow-to-tow with them.  (Watch the Indy game.  A couple of fourth and short calls make a big difference.)  If he doesn't believe in his talent...you shouldn't either.

After that:

A couple names I'll throw into the mix late in the draft:

Klye Orton:  Is it me or is he a top 5 QB for the first 6 weeks of every season since 2008?  Maybe it's me.  Sure feels that way.  I can't think of anyone in football with more to prove.  Except of course....

Alex Smith:  I love San Fran this year.  Remember last year when everyone thought they were gonna be awesome, and I said in a forum that they weren't going to be, and then I got ripped for it in that forum, and then I was right because they sucked?  That was awesome.  But this year?  This year everyone thinks they suck.

They don't.

They'll be awesome.  And it won't necessarilly be because of Gore.  In fact...I like Hunter to make his presence known.  Either way though....look for third year man Crabtree to be moved to Flanker...where he belongs....and for Smith to be a viable QB.

Fantasy Football Advice

I know.  The title isn't compelling.  But it is SEO friendly.  It's Friday at 4:49pm.  I have to kill 11 minutes before walking out.  So here is a quick thought on the upcoming drafts.  I may develop this more later:

Last year I said you should *gasp* stay away from RB's in the first 2 rounds.  Why?  Because starting in round 3 there was Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw, Arian Foster, McFadden, etc.  So if you listened to me and used picks 3, 5, 6, 7, and 9 on RB's...you probably hit some of the aforementioned backs.  You could even take your Ronnie Brown/Felix Jones lumps and come out just fine...and you avoided the Steven Jacksons, Shown Greene's and Ryan Mathews of the world.

This year....you need to use your first three picks on RB's.  Why?  Because:

I'm just not seeing the Bradshaws, McFadden's, and Foster's out there.  Round 4 and 5 aren't filled with "backs that have shown promise and may thrive in their new roles."  It's full of "we have no idea if this guy will even play, or if he's any good."  Ahmad Bradshaw in 2010 is a very different risk than Beanie Wells 2011.  Hell....Beanie Wells 2010 is a different risk than Beanie Wells 2011.  And this one isn't as shiny.

QB is crazy, crazy, crazy deep.  Deep as I can remember. 

There are alot of sleeper WR's.  It's come full circle from 2006.

Ok....it's 5:01pm.  Seeya Monday.

Chris Johnson vs Adrian Peterson: The Second Pick in Fantasy Football

I understand why you may be confused as to why we are starting with Chris Johnson vs Adrian Peterson.  Is it really THAT assumed that Arian Foster should be taken first overall?  Shouldn't the debate be Arian Foster vs Chris Johnson vs Adrain Peterson?

Here's a fun fact for you: 

• Number of searches in Google for Chris Johnson vs Adrian Peterson over the past month:  720
• Number of searches in Google for Chris Johnson vs Arian Foster:  0
• Number of searches in Google for Adrian Peterson vs Arian Foster:  0

Pretty funky huh?  Then go look at the average draft positions so far this year. 

• #1:  Arian Foster (1.25).  That's close to a lock.
• #4:  Jamaal Charles (4.22).  That is in cement. 

However....Adrian Peterson?  ADP of 2.86.  Chris Johnson?  3.14.  In other words....there's a debate there.  And there absolutely, positively should be.  Kind of.

First off...let me say this:  Arian Foster should drop to number three.  In fact....he SHOULD drop to number 5 behind Jamaal Charles and Michael Vick, but you are human, and therefore essentially risk averse.  If you take Foster with the first pick, you won't seem stupid.  Even if he sucks, "noone could blame you" for taking him with that pick.  So why risk it?

Well....he won't suck.  It is however the wrong decision.  And you are stupid if you make it.  Why?  3 reasons:

1)  Vonta Leech (Houston's 2010 Fullback) is now a Raven.

2)  James Casey (Houston's 2011 Fullback) is more of a ball-carrier than a blocker.

3)  James Casey was a minor league baseball player before he signed on for football.  Position?  Pitcher.

He was a fucking pitcher.  Great.  Here's to hoping the Cowboys sign Jabba Chamberlien's fat ass to block for the brittle 1-2-3 punch of Jones/Choice/Murray. The fact is every three years Texas gets a running back, that was picked in fantasy football round 5 (or off the waiver wire) and does great things.  The following year they are picked in the first round of every fantasy football league.  And then what happens?  Well...let me ask you....where are you picking Steve Slaton or Dominick Davis in this years draft? 

But I digress.  The fantasy football playing masses in this small August sample size have made their opinion known, so I will stop berating them for being stupid.  And I will move on.

The number two pick should be Chris Johnson.  Actually, the number 1 pick should be Chris Johnson.  Here's why;

Adrian Peterson has been the safest play at RB for four years running.  Not dominant in the way LT2 or Priest Holmes, or Marshall Faulk was dominant...but he'll be a top 5 back every year.  If you have owned him in a keeper league, you should thank him.

And you can cut him now.

Why?  Because out of those players I just mentioned, none of them...NONE of them had 5 great years.  Neither did Stephen Davis, Brian Westbrook, Emmit Smith....pick a name.  4 years.  Then a significant slide. 

Now...it's not always the RB.  Offensive lines deteriorate, QB's get replaced Coaches get moved around, offensive schemes change, etc.  And how many of those things are happening in Minnesota right now?  All of them. 

Now...will Johnson face some of those issues as well?  Yes.  But has his offensive line gotten worse?  No.  And will the offensive scheme change?  Not really.  And will Hasselback do a better job of getting him the ball in the flats than Young?  Yes. 

So there you have it.  Debate settled.  I have the third pick in my draft, and I'm hoping Johnson falls. And if he doesn't....I'm taking Jamaal Chares.

Year of the Pitcher Part II: Weather This Trend Will Continue or Not....

You like what I did there?  With the intentional mispelling of "weather?"  Hah!  Hilarious.  Okay...time to get serious.

I remember it was around 1985/86 when I heard Dave Winfield answer a reporters question about why he always started so slow.   I'm paraphrasing, but he said something about the fact he was a big man at 6'6", and it took awhile for a guy his size to warm up and get all the body parts moving right.  In essence....he took awhile to develop a rhythm.  I've been thinking about this lately as I read of how Big Tex is taking extra swings in the off season to avoid his slow start.  And how a supersized Prince Fielder only hits in May every 2 years.  And how the 6'4" Matt Holiday's and David Ortiz's tend to take April off as a whole.

And then I thought about 2010.....the year of the pitcher.  Where it seems the entire league was cold until August, when all those young arms finally began to wear down.

Or did they?

I have heard a million reasons why 2010 was the year of the pitcher.  No steroids...tons of young pitchers finally coming into their own, lots of rookies making their mark, etc. 

What if I told you it was all wrong.  What if I told you that the entire reason that 2010 was the year of the pitcher was due to air density.  And what if I told you that 2011 was going to be even more exaggerated in this manner.  Would it effect the way you draft?  Damn right it would.

First off.....this has been debated before.  The science has been examined.  The call has been that IF the weather really effects batters that much, it would equally effect pitchers, so it evens out.  But I say it depends on the pitcher/batter in question.  I'm not going to give you a science lesson, but here's some background:

The cooler and dryer the air is, the denser it is. (Think San Diego....low to Sea level, never breaks 80, always sunny.)  Conversely, hotter and wetter, the air loses it's density.   (Think Colorado, which because of it's altitude, the air is less dense, and the stadium is a launching pad.)  So it makes sense if it's cool and dry the ball will have less sustained momentum for a 400 feet HR (won't travel as far), but MORE side to side movement for 90 feet, as the ball with it's rotating seams fights through the denser air. See where I'm going with this?  Cooler, dryer weather makes the ball move more out of the pitchers hand, which  makes solid contact with a 5" round piece of wood less likely, and turns HR's into warning track outs. 

This has been studied over playoff/world series games where some batters suddenly go cold, and pitching takes you farther than hitting.   The consensus is that the effect on pitchers nullifies the effect on hitters.  Why?  Because if the ball is dry and cold, it's harder to grip, which means less movement in general.  Pus the ball seems shrink, which means that will counter act their ability to create movement.  Plus a 96 mph fastball may only be 95.  That makes a difference.  

I say hogwash.  It depends on the pitcher.  And the batter.  And 2010 was a perfect example of why.  2010 was one of the dryest years on record, with the exception being the Midwest.  (I know...it rained in Syracuse...but that's the only place.)  Was it hot?  Yes.  But it was dry.  Dry trumps hot.  And  it wasn't always hot.  The hot was very, very hot which affects the average.

2011?  It will be dryer.  Potentially the 4th dryest summer on record.  AND cooler.  So....even more dense air.  

So I know what you're thinking.....wow, better stock up on breaking ball pitchers and guys that can hit the ball 500 feet regardless.  But....that's a mistake.  A big one.  In fact....more movement isn't good for every pitcher, and less momentum isn't bad for every batter.  I'll use 4 extreme examples:

The "stuff" pitcher:  Most pitchers are stuff pitchers.  Think Mike Leake.  Stuff doesn't mean speed.  Stuff doesn't even mean strikeouts.  Stuff means stuff.  Leake has great stuff.  He doesn't throw a blazing fastball, but his 92 MPH with good location ALREADY has great movement.  Leake threw fastballs 60% of the time last year.  That's a pretty good clip.  Now lets give that fastball another .5 inches of movement right before you try to hit it with the "sweet spot" of your bat because the weather is cold and dry.  Shazam.  So Mike Leake, Bucholz, Hughes, Cahill, and all those other "stuff" guys that don't have blazing fastballs, but still throw a TON of them........move them up the draft board.

"Feel" pitchers:  You know that guy with a "devastating" 12-6 curve?  Those are feel pitchers.  They rely on the seems of the ball, and rhythm of their movement heavily to get the effect they are looking for.  Move them down the draft board.

I know what you're thinking......wouldn't it be easier to throw a curve?  Well....no.  Cooler, dryer air also shrinks the ball and makes the seems less pronounced. So....while you get more "unintentional" movement, it's actually harder to create "intentional" movement.  Think Brian Matusz.  He throws fastballs to lefties, but first and foremost, he's a curveball, changeup pitcher.  They are both feel pitches.  Cold dry weather?  No feel.  So he'll suck....again.  Remember those 2 good games he had against Boston last year?  Well....you don't, but I do.  Both rainy.  Both humid.  Both great games for the guy with the deadly 12-6 curve.

Sweet Spot Sluggers:  I'm just going to say slow starters.  Tex has a BEAUTIFUL swing.  He's got it in April, and he has it in October, but he only hits in the middle of the year.

I remember owning him in 2006.  The beginning of the summer was unusually cold....and so was he.  6 HR's by the all-star break.  27 after it.  And he only hit .280 for the season, but he walked into the break at a .218 clip.  And I thought....could it be the temperature that...naaawwwww.  And I'll I kept hearing that year was "well....he's hitting the ball hard....it's just not going out of the park."  It's not air density....it's the sweet spot of the bat.  When you have a great swing, you have a higher percentage chance of hitting the ball with the roughly 1" in diameter sweet spot of the bat.  When the ball is moving more, but your swing is the same....you may be hitting it hard, but not with the same part of the bat that allows for a higher transference of engery to the ball.  So less velocity, less momentum, and more fly ball outs as opposed to HR's.

So ALL those great players with great swings that hit the crap out of the ball last August.....Tex, Holiday, Fielder, Abreau, Braun, A-Rod, even guys that don't have great power like Jeter, but have an exemplary swing.....move them down the draft board.

But move up Vladdy.  Why?  He does not have a great swing.  He swings at everything, and hits it.  Guys that are in the practice of hitting crap pitches.....Vladdy, Rickie Weeks....guys that never take walks, but never strike out...this is their time to shine.  They don't depend on the sweet spot, they just make contact baby.  And they will be fine.  In fact........given the way the ball moves off their bat and DIES in the OF earlier HELPS them.  It turns fly ball outs into line drive doubles.  Perfect.  So move Asdrubal Cabrera back up the list, and think hard about how a big .350 hitting Panda may do as your corner IF.

Now....obviously weather is not the only factor in whether a player will succeed or fail, but the proof that it has effects on baseball is there.  There are clearly some players it effects more than others.  It's only one of the million things you should take into account for player evaluation...but it's definitely something to consider when thinking about whether Ryan Ludwick who had a great (hot and rainy) 2009 will regain form in a cold and dry 2011.

Football Gut Feeling Recap

For those of you keeping score.....I just wanted to take a look at my predictions from my preseason predictions from September 8th.

1)  Cowboys are a wild-card team.....at best.  Hit.  I just sunk your f-ing battleship.

2)  Miles Austin and Tony Romo will be #1 at their respective positions.  Um....miss.  After the Romo injury, Austin had some great games, but didn't even crack top 10 WR's.  Just makes for value next year.  :)

3)  Atlanta's going to the SuperBowl.  Well......miss, but they did have the best record in the NFC, so that should count for something.  I won't call it a hit, but you can't say I don't know what I'm talking about based on this comment.

4)  Jacoby Jones will be Houston's most valuable WR this year.  Miss....I over estimated Jones, and the likelihood that Johnson would miss significant time.  Not looking good.......only 1 for 4 so far.  Good thing I'm not done.

5)  San Fran's Defense is not all it's cracked up to be.  Not only is this a hit, they were the team you HOPED to see your players have on their schedule. 

6)  Kevin Kolb will suck more than you think.  Thank you Michael Vick for making my prediction a hit.

7)  The Colts will not win their division.  Miss.......close, but the division was worse than I thought.

8)  Brees will not be a top 5 QB.  Well.....he was #6.  But it's still a hit.

9)  Seattle Seahawks will matter.  Hit.  Not only did they make the playoffs.....they won the division.  How's that for mattering.

10)  McDaniels loses his job before the end of the season.  HIT!

11)  Mangini keeps his job.  Miss........but he should have kept it. 

12)   TO outscores OchoCinco.  Hit....and he did it in less games.

13)  Jahvid Best outscores Ryan Matthews.  Hit....and that's with turf toe.

14)  Chris Ivory is the most valuable RB on his team.  Hit.

15)  So is Isaac Redman.  Miss.


So......9 for 15.  Not exactly Guru status, but not bad for a rookie.  That said, time for baseball season!  Time to redeem myself, and give you some things to consider going into draft day.