Super Deep Sleepers For Your Watchlist

History has shown us that there are some significant points sitting on your waiver wire right now.  Players that noone has thought of drafting will find opportunity and surprise us.  This list of players is not worth grabbing in the draft.  Noone will take them.  However they are why watch lists were invented.  If you start to see some production, don't be afraid to spend your Faab money on these five players:

Terrance Williams
WR, Dallas Cowboys

We've seen some pretty significant numbers from the Dallas #3 receiver in the Romo/Garret era.  Williams is a rookie, and I hate rookie WR's, but the opportunity is there for him to take.  Williams is not super fast (4.52 40 time) but he's very qucik, and at 6'2", 208 this big target could take advantage of the attention paid to Bryant/Austin/Witten.

Kenjon Barner
RB, Carolina Panthers

Here's what we know....DeAngelo Williams can't carry the load.  We know that from the last time Stewart got hurt.  And the time before that.  And the time before that.  You see what I'm getting at.  Sooner or later, Barner will get the Lions share of the carries.

Barner has great hands, ran a 4.4 at the combine, and has shown great quickness.  He's on the small side at 5'9", but it's not like Williams is much bigger, so he shouldn't lose snaps in short yardage.  I expect him to make a home for himself here in Carolina within the first three weeks of the season, and have a Marion Barber circa 2007 stat line.

Stephen Williams

Full disclosure....this is the second time I've tabbed Stephen Williams as a deep sleeper.  He also sustained a concussion in his final preseason game.  But.....he's locked up the #4 spot on Seattle's depth chart by leading the team in receiving yards this preseason.  http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6064/stephen-Williams

Williams is big, fast, and handsy.  He's was a pre-season hero for a few years with Arizona, but never with a decent QB, and always ends up buried on the depth chart due to an injury in the final pre-season game.  He's not a GREAT route-runner, but Wilson is the kind of QB that buys time and looks for the matchup.  Once Sidney Rice goes down, he finds his way on the field in the slot, and he's just a huge endzone target.  Keep your eye on him.


Brian Quick:
WR, St. Louis Rams

Everyone loved this kid last year, but I think it was more about not really having enough information to properly grade him.  Now we have that information.  And that information says he's having issues adjusting to the NFL game.

That said, he caught 5 passes on 6 targets for 60 yards in the final preseason game.  Yes it's a meaningless game, but it allowed Quick to remind the Rams that he's a very big, very athletic jump up and grab it wide receiver that's perfect in the endzone.  I'm thinking Chris Chambers rookie season may be the type of player we're looking at.

Kenny Stills;
WR, NO

I think the Saints are back this year, behind their prototypically huge offense.  But to do that they need some surprises. That surprise will be Kenny Stills.

Stills will be a prototypical Saints player with sporadic success, but still makes for a great bye-week fill in as he amasses 700 yards, 6 TD's over the season.


 

2013-2014 Football Surprise Predictions

I found this old thread this morning, read through my previous seasons predictions, and realized that I'm damn good at this.  So I'm feeling inspired to share with you my thoughts on the 2013-2014 football season.

Your drafts are done, and your belief (or lack there-of) in your actual real life team has been confirmed by popular media.  We have established the 2013 pre-season "conventional wisdom."  For example, it's "conventional wisdom" that there are only a handful of high scoring RB's this year.  It's "conventional wisdom" that Denver will likely represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

However, there are a great many things that look great on paper, that just don't translate in the execution.  So with the last remaining days of drafting, trading, and calling into your local radio stations before the season starts still upon us, I give you 15 "against the grain" predictions.

Prediction #1:  A small amount of quarterbacks will be very important to the fantasy season.

Last year was the year of the quarterback.  We had four rookie breakouts, Peyton Manning re-established himself, and Matt Ryan proved he belongs in the top half of the Fantasy league.  Looking at it this year, it appears that there is only room for growth at the position as Big Ben should be around for a full season, Jay Cutler has a new offense, and more will be asked out of Joe Flacco.

Stop.  Stop with this thinking.  This is the wrong thinking. 

You are correct in your assessment that there will be several QB's that can provide solid support for your team.  The class is deep enough that you may even be able to put a superb carousel of names like Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Vick.  But don't do it.  Don't buy into it.

There will be four quarterbacks in the 2013-2014 that far exceed the rest of the class.  Four.  Maybe five, but probably four.  The division between these four and the rest of the group will be big enough to make or break a season.  Think of those years where the Manning/Brady/Brees contingent ruled football.  You went high on them the next year and....Bam....Big Ben throws for 38 TD's and Favre regains his youth.  So the next year you sit back on QB and....bam...Philip Rivers sucks.

This is that other year.  This is the year that the league defenses catch up with the pistol.  This is the year that Russell Wilson misses 6 games.  Kapernick loses the team.  Flacco goes back to being normal. 

Stick with the QB's that are in spread/Coryell offenses that have good WR's, better O-lines, and a running game that can be a threat.  Target them.  Hard.  You don't have to go 3 rounds overboard, but going a round early will pay big dividends.


Prediction #2:  Tony Romo will be the best QB in Fantasy.

Romo may be the most under drafted player in all of fantasy football.  Romo is currently being picked around the 11th QB in the league.  11th.  On average he's going in ROUND 7!!!!!  Wow.  Steal. 

Romo was the 7th best QB in standard scoring leagues last year.  That's one of his worst fully healthy years to date.  Part of that is his 19 INT's.  Part of that is his lowest TD % numbers ever.  Part of that is the explosion of talent at the position.  But all of these reasons are outliers.  As much as he is unlikely to match his 2007 career best, (before Garret) he likely won't match his 2012 career worst.

Tony's offensive line is better, he has a new playcaller that once made Rich Gannon a top 3 QB option.....let me repeat that....MADE RICH GANNON A TOP 3 QB OPTION...and has more TE options, and a ready-to-have-his-best-year-ever Dez Bryant.

Stat line:  4700 yards, 29 TD's, 12 INT's, #4 overall Fantasy QB, and best damn value on the board.

Prediction #3:  The 2013 "We all think they will be horrible, but they will actually make the playoffs" team is:  The Buffalo Bills.

Here's How:  EJ Manuel is back in week 2.  He is a solid fit for the up-tempo-but-run-first offense deployed by new coach Doug Marrone.  In this offense Spiller gets more Spillery.  Graham and Woods allow Steve Johnson to go inside/over the middle where he will excel.  (Think last years Reggie Wayne.)  The hybrid-style high pressure defense (think 2010 Saints) ramps up it's ability to create turnovers, having that peak defensive season.

The Bills normally start hot.  I don't expect that this year.  I expect them to start 1-3.  MAYBE 2-2.  But then I expect them to be 4-4.  Then maybe we see 7-5.  And we finish 10-6, with a playoff spot.  This all leads me to....

Prediction #4:  CJ Spiller will lead all players in yards from the line of scrimmage.

Don't give me that crap about his size.  His offensive system is geared up for it.  His offensive line coach is one of the best in the business.  He'll see more check downs than Emmit Smith in his entire career.  He's fast.  He's agile.  He's explosive.  And he's the next Priest Holmes/Marshall Faulk/LaDanian Tomlinson.

Prediction #5:  Doug Martin will be a bust.

Listen closely:  Tampa...never...has...anyone...repeat...a good...year.  Ever.


Prediction #6:  You'll wish you went a round higher on David Wilson.

Forget last year.  He was just one of those guys that needed to take his rookie lumps.  He'll be leaned on heavily, he's fast, he's big, he's perfect for the NYG style of play, and he'll stay in at the goal line.  Targeting him as your #2 back allows you to get a #1 WR earlier.  Make him part of your game plan.

Prediction #7:  This is Stephen Williams (WR you've never heard fo...not AZ running back) year.

For those of you that have read my annual predictions or deep sleepers columns, you know I love Stephen Williams.  He's 6'6".  He has great hands.  He makes incredible plays.  He's crazy fast.

And he's always hurt.  And he can't run routes for shit.

Basically he's Danario Alexander before he went to San Diego.  Talented, dumb, and takes longer to learn his lesson.  Well...Williams has left Arizona.  He's paired up with Carrol who is really good at coaching dumb receivers.  And....he's lead all Seattle receivers this preseason with 187 yards on 6...on only 6 catches.  This is his year.

Prediction #8:  Denver won't win it's Division.

WHAT!  THAT IS ABSURD!  DID THEY CHANGE DIVISIONS?!?!?!?!?!?!

Look...I know they are good on paper.  I know they have Manning.  I know the division sucks.  But here's what bothers me:

1)  With 1 suspension, and 1 season ending injury, you just lost 1/2 your total sacks from last year for the first 6 seasons at the game.  (At minimum.)  That's a ton to give up.

2)  Wes Welker is being really weird.  He's still talking about the difference between Tom and Peyton.  Which means he's thinking a lot about that difference.  Which to me says....I haven't adjusted to that difference.  Stay away from him this year....he's not in for a great season.

3)  Congratulations Demaryius Thomas!  You stayed healthy pretty much all season! 

That will never happen again.

4)  Peyton Manning is all healed forever, and not losing a step at 37.  Hell...he's STRONGER than he was last year!!!

Sure.  If you say so.

See where I'm going here?  Sometimes everything clicks for a team, and they collectively have a "career year."  I think that's what happened for Denver last year, and I don't think they will repeat it.


Prediction #9:  Brady misses significant time this year.

His strength was in his hair that his wife made him grow.  That's now gone.  He's done.

Seriously though....the O-line does more work on the run side which tires them out a little more...they miss a few more defenders...there's no Welker or stud TE to chuck it to quickly....

As much as I like Edelman and Amendola, I don't think they are enough to keep Mr. Brady healthy in 2013.  Sorry Pats fans...this is Buffalo's year.

Prediction #10:  Sean Payton hits Belicheckian status.

Last year the Saints kinda sucked.  That won't happen again.  I love, love, love, love Atlanta, but....this is New Orleans division.  This is Sean Payton's division. He is going to remind you why, and when he does there will be "best in the game" whispers.

Prediction #11:  The NFC West gets stood on it's head.

Oh my lord I'm sick of hearing about Carson Palmer.  He is not your answer Cardinal fans.  He is now an average Quarterback without the big arm he left college with with a 1.2:1 TD:INT ratio learning another new system.

But he's got Fitzgerald.  And his O-line is healthy.  And better.  And the defense has some nice additions, and...for that matter....subtractions as they get younger and faster at Safety.

So the Cards will be better.  And when Bradford, Richardson,  and that St. Louis defense find their rhythm in game 3, they will be better.  In fact...they will win the division.

And when Kapernick regresses, (Boldin is not Crabtree) and Lynch loses a step after last years workload....those teams get worse.

So overall, The NFC West goes St. Louis, Arizona, Seattle, and San Fran with only St. Louis making it to the playoffs.

Prediction #12:  Baltimore misses the playoffs.

Here's what the experts are saying:  It's addition by subtraction!  No really...they may be even better!

Here's what I'm saying:  It's subtraction.  Just subtraction.  It's subtracting two of the top 10 all time defensive players.  It's subtracting a reliable threat in the middle.  It's subtracting from that offensive line. It's subtracting the last of the Marvin Lewis mindset.  I don't care how much faster you are...when you subtract all of that...you subtract wins.

Prediction #13:  Chicago Takes the NFC Central.

Trestman and Kromer win the division in their first year.  Because they are both very, very, very good at coaching offense.  There is real SuperBowl potential here.

Beyond the system, there's a drastically improved O-line.  Whenever I see improved O-line, I know you can expect an improved record.  Draft your Bears early.  They'll pay off.

Prediction #14:  RGIII goes bust-ish. 

Somebody shut this guy up.  Seriously.  If you want to be a great QB, you need to be a great leader.  Ask Brady how much he spoke about his injury comeback.  Or Peyton Manning.  Or Drew Brees.  Shut up.  Shut up, shut up, shut up.

Oh...and the rest of the NFL figures out the pistol and reigns him in.  And he's not as mobile as he was on that new leg.  He won't be a TERRIBLE QB, but he'll take a couple steps back from 2012.

Prediction #15:  Jason Garret keeps his job.

First of all, let's make this clear......Jerry Jones really, really, really does not want to fire Garret.

Jerry Jones wants to be the guy that saw something in him as a player and groomed him from backup QB, to offensive coordinator, to head coach.  He's invested a couple of losing seasons in Garret.  Not because he's so sure that Garret WILL succeed, but because his own ego NEEDS Garret to succeed.

That said......

I think Garret has the staff around him now, and enough experience to take that step forward.  I don't think he's Norv Turner.  I think he has more than that, and this year he proves it by going 10-6 and making the playoffs.  I think it can work in Dallas, and while they won't win the Superbowl...the playoffs aren't out of the question, and the playoffs are enough to keep Garret on this team.