Many of you are still doing old-school snake drafts to fill your fantasy football rosters. And if you are involved in an online snake draft in 2010, there are two certainties:
1) You’re league is full of small minded, unimaginative dicks that can’t handle the “loose constraint” of an auction draft. Most of you probably haven’t tried asparagus since you were 5, several of you proposed to your wife by dropping an engagement ring in her champagne glass, and your cooking “specialty” is chicken parmesan because when you were 17 you figured out that dipping things in eggs will make breadcrumbs stick to it. Your dates are no longer impressed by this, and consequently you haven’t gotten laid since Match.com allowed people to complain about you and have your membership suspended.
2) Round 5 is going to suck like Pam Anderson on a speed-boat. Wait…hold on…..I can do better: it will suck like a Kardashian in a post-game NFL locker room. Wait….no….it will suck like a 22 year old Sara Silverman auditioning for sorority girl #3. Hmmm….I’ll get back to this.
Why am I so certain round 5 will suck? Because there’s not that many anchors out there to field your six most important spots. You have four rounds where you can pick players with confidence. After those rounds you’re essentially at the Bunny Ranch after plunking down your $300……your options are too old, too young, or just plain ugly, you don’t have the stones to ask for a refund, and you’re wondering why you thought this was a good idea in the first place.
What you fail to realize, is that while it seems like this pick is crucial…..you have already messed up. Somewhere in the first four rounds, you made a pick that will go on IR by week 3, or will be replaced by someone younger/faster, or will just not have the opportunity you thought they would to put up big numbers because the NFC Central and AFC West is tougher than you thought (I’m looking at you Greg Jennings) or they started dating one of the aforementioned Kardashians.
However, all is not lost, because you have a specific, well though through draft plan. With the remaining rounds, you are going to properly position yourself to win. This starts with the realization that if you play with more than 10 owners, there is no such thing as the week in week out players. There was a time when the West Coast offense was “inventive”, running backs “got the rock” 25-30 times a week, Gilbert Godfrey was “funny” and Candace Bergen was “attractive.” However, all of that is no longer a reality. NFL Coaches no longer construct game plans that revolve around the same RB or WR carrying their team week in and week out, and neither should you. You have wisely thrown the idea of having a static weekly lineup out the window.
You have planned a carousel for every single position!
Every roster spot should be considered a flex position, and in order to address this reality, you have purposeful targets for rounds 6-15 that allow you to draft fearlessly, with a sense of determination and intensity that can only be found in Marines storming beaches, or my ex mother in law approaching a cheesecake. (I know…cheap and easy…but so, so true.)
I want to be clear on this; THIS IS NOT ABOUT SLEEPERS. Do these players you are targeting have upside? Well sure. If you’ve been doing any research you’ve now stumbled upon reasons to love about 20 guys at each position that have enough talent to “break out” and provide more value than the other guys drafted in the same round. You’ve also stumbled on reasons to believe they will continue in mediocrity. That’s the essence of a sleeper. But I’m taking it a step beyond that. More important than their upside is that they will be deployed by their teams in a very specific manner and because of this they have a very specific opportunity in a very specific week.
Here’s what I mean by this: Santana Moss has an Average Draft Position of 82, or basically he’s taken between rounds 6-7 depending on how many owners are in your league. Over the course of the season, he will probably put up good enough numbers to justify being a low-end #2/high-end #3 WR, thereby being a solid pick at that spot. He’s been that type of player for years. His new quarterback and coach may help his case this year giving him some sleeper appeal, but there’s some uncertainty there with his links to HGH, and the potential emergence of a host of younger WR’s. Hopefully you’ve made some very good decisions so far in the draft, and he is the weakest player in your starting lineup.
The point is that Santana Moss is a very solid pick, but he is not a “set it and forget it” player. The key to the carousel is recognizing he is the weakest position in your lineup, and then taking steps to back him up “appropriately.” Backing him up “appropriately” does not mean filling up on more “sleepers” and hoping that one of them turns into a lineup regular. Because…say it with me now….THERE ARE NO LINEUP REGULARS. What “appropriately” means is noting that Moss is cemented into the Z spot of a Mike Shannahan offensive scheme. This means he will be running plenty of outside post routes, and hitch-and-go’s. He has a quarterback that can get him the ball (when healthy) and will get open against a man-zone, or 3-4 man defense. This can equate to some great games for a quick, fast, but undersized WR. Think DeSean Jackson, with less speed, youth, and talent. Or more accurately…..think Rod Smith circa 2001. Not the one with Elway, the one with Brian Griese. A bunch of really good games, with some real bad performances mixed in. In order to back him up “appropriately”, you need to recognize the matchups where he’s likely to struggle (Philly, Green Bay) and find players that due to their upside and circumstances, are highly likely to have explosions in the weeks that Moss will suck like a cosmetic surgeon before a “Facts of Life” reunion show. SHAZAM! NAILED IT! TAKE THAT TUTTI!
So start thinking carousel for EVERY position. Take a look at your tiers. Figure out where the most depth is, and decide what positions will occupy your first four picks. Then, based on the theory that each of your lineup spots will be in flux week in and week out, start forming a draft plan that is detailed enough to include all positions, while prioritizing your weakest lineup spot. You don’t have the time to do all that? Then pray I get to my next article before your draft.
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