The last article referenced the classic "ugly duck" movie concept. You know....where the ugly girl suddenly gets hot and becomes prom queen. First of all....I had to amend my last article to include KC. Not that there's alot of "sleepers", but some of their players are highly undervalued. That said....there's another side to this. In all those movies, you had the girl that was the no-holds-barred hottest bitch in the school that was a SHOE IN for prom queen. This girl....while she remained hot....would eventually lose the title as flaws in her personality were discovered.
Now...I know it's ridiculous to think anyone would care about a female's personality, but there's something to be learned here. There are some NFL teams out there with some serious personality flaws, but because they were the equivalent of the girl in middle school that first got breasts, we look past those flaws and they remain hot by reputation.
Stay away from these teams. Not because their players will suck, but because they are overvalued in your draft. You will not get the results you want out of them. You need a list of these teams? You got it.
The Girl That Was Hot Until She Messed With Someone That Ended Up Being a Teenage Witch: Minnesota Vikings.
I haven't seen so many hip-surgeries and headaches since that judge made me do community service in the old folks home. Favre is calling his coach a pussy, and guys are....well....their Twittering. That's just... not what a football team should be doing. Personally I blame everything on Jared Allen cutting his mohawk for his wedding. Much like Samson, Minnesota is nothing without that hair. (Also...he's down to 4 sacks this year. Why? He got married. Tough to sack a guy after you've been neutered.) I'm not going to spend alot of time on these guys, because you know the issues. Favre made that O-line (especially McKinnie) look better that it was. He will not make it more than three weeks before he officially has to stand perfectly still after the snap in order to keep his ankle attached to his body. This would be good news for Berrian. While he battled injuries all year with his hammy, a clean bill of health will not make Favre stop hating him for being a whiney-not-from-the-south little bitch. And all the sudden, Camarillo is getting drafted as a strong #3 receiver (ADP is skyrocketing after the trade) which makes him overvalued as well. 45th receiver off the board? Sure...maybe. Someone's gotta catch the ball. 30th receiver off the board? Seriously? No.
I know what you're thinking...AP is the exception. Well....kinda. Will he be a top 12 back? Absolutely. But don't bank on the removal of Chester Taylor to help. Taylor came in more for increased pass protection, to catch a few balls, and to give AP an occassional breather. You know who that guy is now? AP. His blocking skills have increased, and he's shown that he can catch. This results in three things: he'll catch more passes, (yeeeeaaaahhh!!!) but this may be the year his injury prone ass finally takes too much of a beating. (Boooo.) Plus, the "change of pace" back is now a between the tackles downhill runner. That means AP will get less carries behind Hutchinson, and more bouncing to the outside, behind the vastly overrated McKinnie. (Booooooooooooooo.) Can he do that? Sure. Is that his game? Not really.
Don't get me wrong....he'll be a great back again this year. But instead of combining the upsides of his 1800 yard/14 TD season, (Including a couple 200+ yard games...not likely to happen regularly) and his 1400 yard/18 TD season, I see him doing more of the reverse with a small yards p/carry average. It's still 1400 yards and 14 TD's, (IF he has 16 games in him...which he does not) but it's not what you're expecting.
Wow....I did spend alot of time on these guys. Ok...next....
The Girl That Was Super Hot And Then She Got Overconfident, Dropped Her Boyfriend, Who Started Dating A New Girl That Became EVEN HOTTER!: Indianapolis Colts;
I know....this is heresey. How dare I question the great Peyton Manning and his "best quarterback of all time" title. But just like the St. Louis Rams gave way to age and injury, the Colts run is about to hit a road bump. I am staying away from every Colt on the draft board, save maybe Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown.
The entire offensive line is injured. All of 'em. Now, many "should" be back for the regular season...but they are hurting man. Hurting. None more significant than Jeff Saturday. If Peyton Manning is the CEO of the Colts offense, then Saturday is it's chief operations officer. Actually...screw that....he runs the warehouse. My point is he makes sure all the guys are doing what they are supposed to be doing once the CEO dictates the direction of the company. He just had his knee scoped, and is supposed to be back by week 1. That's a mistake. Scopes aren't a deal breaker for most football players, but most of them don't have to put a tremendous amount of pressure on their thighs and knees to quickly snap a ball and then hold off a 300 lb. nose tackle, or blitzing MLB. Hell....if I'm playing the Colts I am inside blitzing ALLLLLLLLL day. If I know that.....defensive coordinators know that.
During their dominant offensive run, the Colts have lived and died with that offensive line. With all the missed preseason, and all the hobbling on and off the field, I don't trust them. And therefore, I don't trust the Colts. And therefore....I don't trust that running game at all. The fantasy value of Colts running backs has always stemmed from their TD opportunities. There will be less of those now. Let someone else get suckered into that scene...it's not going to work out.
Downgrade Dallas Clark. Seriously. He still wasn't the highest scoring TE last year, and that's when he could run all over and catch 100 balls. Now he needs to block. Not to mention the fact that Gonzalez, Garcon, and Collie would all like to catch a ball every so often.
Reggie Wayne has been the most overrated fantasy WR for years now. He has NEVER been a weekly threat. He has big, huge games, with a couple weeks of nothin' in between. That's about to get worse as Manning has to rely on 3 step drops, and can't chuck it deep as often.
Austin Collie is lining up in both the slot, and the outside. What that means is Gonzelez and Garcon are essentially splitting carries. That makes all of them worth less than their current draft slots. Gonzalez is going late in drafts, or not at all, so his value is relatively spot on. Make no mistake about it, while Collie will be a heavily used 4th man....he's still the 4th man. But the guy I really hate here is Garcon. Look...he'll be a solid #3/#4, with a few good weeks, and some scattered crap weeks. But he's being taken as the 25th WR off the board on average. (ADP of 65, or mid round 5 for most leagues.) He won't produce like a low end #2.
Plus....that schedule is harder than it looks. Oakland's better, Jacksonville is better, Philly's better, Washington's better....they have some tough draws to mix in with the Houstons, and Tennesees. That means more inconsistency from the receiving corp.
The one guy......the ONE guy I would consider drafting is Donald Brown. And that is ONLY because of Addai's concussion, and the fact his ADP is 109....42nd RB off the board. If he gets the majority of the carries, he could end up being a serviceable #2 back, and exceed that draft spot. But think more Marshawn Lynch 2008. Never a hundred yard game and under 10 TD's.
The Girl That Everyone Thought Was Hot Until Her Wig Flew Off/Bra Came Unstuffed When Her Evil Plan To Eliminate The New Hot Girl From The Prom Backfired: Houston Texans.
This is somewhat specific to the passing game.......on top of having one of the easiest pass schedules the world has ever seen in 2009, you have a better chance of being struck by lightening while simultaneously capturing a Bengal Tiger and watching a blockbuster movie that had Paul Giamotti being cast as the Incredible Hulk (Not David Banner....the actual Hulk) than you have of both Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson staying on the field for more than 13 games two years in a row.
The line is intact. Neh...it may be better. Which means more running. Which means less passing. Will this be Jacoby's breakout year? Maybe...but not in the "Reggie Wayne breakout year" fashion. More in the "Walter Johnson" breakout year fashion. And that will take balls away from Johnson, who has yet to break the 10 TD barrier. Move Johnson down your board. (He should at least be behind Moss and Austin.) Keep Jacoby where he is...a low end 3rd WR, and don't even think about drafting Schaub. If you draft Schaub, you better have a great backup. Like...I don't know....Aaron Rodgers. Otherwise, don't do it.
The Overhyped/Overconfident Girl That Was Easily Not As Hot As The New Girl That Transferred: Green Bay Packers.
50 sacks. That's alot of sacks. And your favorite WR in late round 2, early round 3, Greg Jennings, had 4 TD's. That won't change much, because about 1/2 way through 2008 teams said..."Heh...Jennings gets all his TD's by getting behind our defense. Let's not allow him to do that anymore, because he's not that fast, and Donald Driver is not nearly the threat he once was. So we'll double cover Jennings instead" Then he stopped catching TD's. That pattern is here to stay. I realize they had to deal with injuries to their O-Line in '09, but last years whipping boys....Detroit and Chicago.... both made moves to put more pressure on the QB. Plus that schedule included some horrible Pass Defenses. This year, short of a week 2 contest at Buffalo, and a week 6 contest at Miami, those pass D's they are facing have seen alot of improvement. And if you were playing a crappy Buffalo, and a banged up Miami.....wouldn't you run all game? You would? Me too. Therefore, I like Grant to put up similar numbers, but not at the "10th RB off the board" spot he's being drafted in. I see Finley putting up identical numbers, Jennings stuck at 6 TD's, and Driver being much less of a factor. I would look hard at James Jones out of the slot as his talent outweighs his average draft spot, and Rodgers will have alot of hot reads to make, but I would stay away from the rest of these guys.
If you have guys from these teams, you can still trade em. But do it before the season starts, otherwise you won't recover the value you drafted them for.
I've gotten some feedback about the Green Bay Packers, specifically questioning my thoughts on J. Finley. After re-reading, I should clarify my position.
ReplyDeleteFinley is an all world talent. You can't cover him. But I am not disputing his talent. I am concerned about his opportunity.
Green Bay knows they have to recommit to the run in order to succeed this year. Plus they have made some significant additions to the defense, which should help them against the pass.
They will grind it out more. They will pass less. When they do pass, Rodgers will be under extreme pressure. They still have to try to get the ball to Jennings, who is always the first look, and then they will be trying to get the ball to an improved Jones, and an aging Driver. Plus....Green Bay has NEVER loved the TE, even in the Bubba Franks years. TD threat? Sure. 80 catches? Probably not. That puts him on the bubble of the elite, not a top 5.