So last week didn't work out all that well. Aside from Danny Amendola, you likely cursed my name if you started any of my recommendations. But....in all likelihood....you didn't. You knew better. You understood that most teams weren't going to suddenly change their preseason plans and stray away from their starters in week 1.
But it's week 2 now.....the game has changed. Not because of who will be getting unexpected carries, but because of who is actually owned in your leagues. Guys like Kenny Britt, Bernard Berrian, and Jacoby Jones have become widely available. It's not that they won't be useful, it's just that they are too tough to predict when they will be useful. As the Peyton Hillis' of the world get picked up, the Leon Washingtons' get dropped.
My goal in this space is to give you guys that are owned in less than 35% of leagues that will give you value this week. A few recommendations for each position, so if you lost Ryan Grant, or you are relying on CJ Spiller for a solid #2....and you were too slow on Brandon Jackson or Tampa's Mike Williams, you're searching for a cheap answer. So here is next weeks Peyton Hillis and Mike Williams;
Running Back:
Mike Bell, Philadelphia:
Bell is owned in 6% of all Yahoo leagues. That stands to reason, seeing as he had one carry for 6 yards which was negated by a hold last Sunday. However....the Eagles were behind, and throwing, all game. This week they have Detroit.
Don't be fooled by how effective Detroit was against Chicago's run. It just means Chicago can't run. Yes, that front four is a much improved corp from 2009.....but Chicago's O-Line is not cut out to push back Suh and company. Philly's is. You gotta imagine at some point Philly is going to try to grind out the clock much like Chicago did. That's when Chester Taylor got his carries last week, and that's when Bell will get them this week.
20% of the Philly offense went through McCoy last week while Bell was dealing with a strained toe. Especially in the Red Zone....where he was largely ineffective. Add in the fact that Weaver's no longer there to set up the diminutive McCoy on the goal-line....it's almost like Philly has no choice but to turn to Bell.
Prediction: 7 Carries, 38 yards, 1 TD.
Kareem Huggins: Tampa Bay 7% Ownership
I'm not backing off this guy just yet. Olson admits that they need to mix him in a little more. Carolina got torched by the run in week 1. Don't let Bradshaw's first half fool you....he beat himself. They just don't have the ability to handle a speed guy like Huggins. If Brandon Jacobs can rip off a 22 yard run, and Bradshaw can rip off a 39 yard run.....I would like to see what Huggins can do after a team spends all game going after Cadillac and Earnest Graham.
Prediction: 4 carries, 1 reception, 70 total yards and 1 TD.
Le'Ron McClain: Baltimore Ravens 2% ownership
Who DIDN'T run effectively against the Bengals last week. I'll say it again...without Antwan Odom, that defense has no teeth. McClain got a little over 10% of the touches against the Jets last week, but with McGahee being so monumentally ineffective.....I can see that number getting to 15% easy, with a good deal of goal line work.
Prediction: 5 carries, 1 reception 30 yards, 1 TD
John Kuhn: Green Bay Packers 2% ownership
If Brandon Jackson has shown anything in his career, it's that he can't be depended on as a feature back, and is not at all reliable at the goal line. If Green Bay showed you anything it's that they prefer to run if at all possible. If Buffalo showed you anything it's that they are more than willing to roll out the red carpet for your running backs to excel as long as your #1 receiver doesn't get in the end-zone with more of this "bend don't break" crap. Add it all together......
Predictions: 6 carries, 18 yards, 2 TD's.
Wide Receivers
Jason Avant: 2% ownership.
C'mon guys....2%? Did we watch the same game? You know...everyone loves to talk about breakout third year receivers....but noone ever mentions this guy as a top option. There is maybe no waiver pickup that I am higher on in week 2 than Avant.
In week 1, D. Jackson got all the targets and Maclin got the TD....but Avant was right there in the Middle of both, and got the yards. Avant got more targets than Maclin once Vick got in the game. Vick will be in the game again. Detroit didn't do a great job against Aromoshodu in the slot last week, which is where Avant will be. Detroit will again be trying to stop a pass heavy offense, concentrating on much stronger #1 and #2 receivers, while keeping OLB's at home to contain Vick. The slot should be WIDE open, and Avant has more ability than Aromoshouda. Yes I realize that I've spelled Aromoushoda's name differently three times. Get used to it.
Predictions: 6 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: Atlanta, 1% ownership.
Danny Amendola did a nice job out of the slot against Arizona, and Clayton had a tremendous game. That's with Sam Bradford as a QB. Imagine what a receiver with Matt Ryan could do.
Atlanta will likely run the majority of the game, but AZ did a solid if not great job against Stephen Jackson. Roddy White is way too much of a factor in this offense, so there's isn't too many balls to go around. I'm not saying Douglas will get many targets. But when he does, I think this week he does some great things with them as opposed to being stuffed by a Pittsburgh corner. He's got a real chance to break a big one this week.
Prediction: 3 reception, 45 yards, 1TD.
Josh Cribbs; Cleveland Browns: 28% Ownership
The Browns used Cribbs all over the field last week. KC allowed 100+ yards to Naanee, and did a solid job stopping Mathew Ryan. Mangini has already said he needs to get Cribbs more involved....and he's right. After last weeks loss, I think every stop imagineable will be pulled out. Hell....Cribbs may throw for a TD.
Prediction: 38 yards receiving, 17 yards rushing, 28 yards passing, 2 overall TD's.
Nate Burleson: Detroit; 19% Ownership.
Man....Best just looked...rough last week. I think after a week of film on Detroit, Philly will be more successful putting up points against Detroit. That means like it or not.....Detroit has to throw. Donald Driver had 30 yards and a TD against Philly, and that's when Green Bay was trying to grind the clock out against them. Shaun Hill worries everyone, and will likely throw 80% of all passes in Calvin Johson's direction.... but he was more than willing to look to his #2 WR in his time with San Fran, and I can see this working out for Burleson.
Prediction: 4 catches, 65 yards.
Mike Thomas: Jaguars, 10% owned.
He had 89 yards last week. Granted....it was against Denver....but he had 89 yards last week. Sims-Walker? 0 yards. Yes, it was against Champ Bailey, but this just shows where David Garrard's head is. Throw it to the MOST open guy, and Mike Thomas is a hell of alot faster/quicker/better than Chris Chambers. He'll be open plenty.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD.
Dwayne Jarret, Carolina, 1% ownership:
Randy Moss demonstrated that Cincy can shut down your #1 WR, and Wes Welker showed they can't shut down your #2. No...Matt Moore is no Brady....but he targeted Jarret plenty last week. Carolina will run alot more, but when they do pass, Jarret will be open.
Prediction: 6 grabs, 89 yards, 1 TD.
Tight Ends
Tony Moeki: Kansas City: 1% Ownership.
Drop Mercedes Lewis. Pick up Tony Moeki. Kellen Winslow demostrated that crappy QB's can still throw to their TE's against Cleveland. Moeki's THE redzone receiver for this team. Bank on it.
Prediction: 4 catches, 38 yards, 1TD
Aaron Hernandez: Patriot's: 3% ownership.
I just think the Pats are going to have their hands full this weekend. The Jets D and Cincy aren't on the same field. Sooner or later, the Pats are going to have to throw. Moss will AGAIN be taken out of the game, and I think Welker see's that much more coverage. Plus...you saw the Jets allow Todd Heap behind their defense to keep the Baltimore WR's/RB's in check. That's Todd Heap. Hernandez did a solid job last week, and while he didn't get the TD, he did get the yards.
Prediction: 6 catches, 81 yards.
Quarterbacks:
Matt Hasselback: Seattle Seahawks, 32% ownership
I'm saying it again. Bad pass defense, and Seattle will open up the passing game. If Garrard can hit for 3 TD's, Hasselback will get you at least 2.
260 yards, 2 TD's.
Matt Moore: Carolina Panthers, 10% ownership.
Let's just say that Moore is at least as good as Delholme, with more talent at his disposal.
Predictions: 240 yards, 2 TD's.
No comments:
Post a Comment