Fantasy Football Week 3 Sleepers

With week 2 in the rear view mirror, it's time to move on.  We take what we've learned, and we apply it to the future.  It's kind of like college.  Or trying to beat level 4 of Zelda.  If you didn't take some hard lessons, you wouldn't know to avoid sleeping with the drunk sociology majors, as they will always end up crying rape.  Thankfully you were only blackballed from one sorority....and there's a whole season ahead of you.  So what can we expect out of week 3?  Here's some game by game breakdowns for you, and some sleepers along the way.  You will not hear the names of Randy Moss, Ray Rice, or Tony Romo, unless they are an absolute sit.  These are the guys that you start maybe 10% of the time, or are currently on your waiver wire.

Cleveland at Baltimore:
The only conceivable way Baltimore loses is if they beat themselves.

And they might.

Don't get me wrong....I'm still putting my money on the Birds over the Browns, but after facing two very tough, physical defenses, I think Baltimore may take this opportunity to instill some confidence in their young quarterback that they've invested so much in.  Cleveland has allowed Maoki and Winslow to put up nice gains against them.  Given the developing bond between Flacco and Heap, I'm thinking Baltimore may expose that.  Also....it might be time to give Rice a bit of a break in the fourth quarter, which means more of a terrible, terrible Willis McGahee.  Put it all together...and it's not necessarily a winning strategy.

But it's still the Browns........

Sleepers:  Flacco has a good week as part of your Carousel, and I'd take Heap over several other options at TE this week, including the popular waiver wire add Aaron Hernandez.  The best way to attack Baltimore is to try to go deep...so I see Cribbs and Maoqui getting some shots downfield, with Harris getting plenty of checkdowns.


Cincy at Carolina:

The Panthers have to win sooner or later.  But not this week.  Jimmy Clausen gives them no chance.  That said....I'm still not sold on Cincy.  They are returning to a run first team, but remember....the Panthers held Bradshaw to -8 yards in the first half against the Giants, and did a very nice job of completely bottling up the Pink Cadillac.  Both teams needed to accomplish something through the air in order to effectively move on the ground.  And you know who's made a career out of shredding zone defenses?

Sleepers:  TO.  You drafted him....this is the week you actually want to start him.  He can kill a zone blitz with short fade routes and curls.  Also keep an eye on Shipley as a frequent hot read, but again....he doesn't have the ability to break one like TO does.  (Yes...he still does.)  I don't see any sleepers in Carolina.

Dallas at Houston
If the Cowboys win, it's only because Kardashian dumped Austin, and the Diva curse is removed.  I know...it's hard to imagine the vaunted Cowboys losing 3 in a row.  You can point to a sloppy Houston defense, and trouble with the left tackle, and say that there is hope.

But what's more plausible.....The Cowboys losing their first 3 games, OR the Cowboys going to Houston, successfully bottling up both Arian Foster and Andre Johnson at Houston, who they have never, ever beat even when Houston sucked.  Probably the former.  The Cowboys can't blitz all game with Foster being the threat he is, (note the 69 yards receiving v. Washington off check-downs) and you can't single cover Johnson with Terrance Newman.  Beating Houston will take great coaching....

....which eliminates Dallas.

Bernard Pollard is the best Safety Dallas has seen so far.  That probably means less than 140 yards for Austin.  I'm also staying far away from Kevin Walters this week with Michael Jenkins draped all over him.  But as for sleepers....

Sleepers:  Dez Bryant.  Can he be considered a sleeper?  Not really...but I like his matchup against the 5'9" McClain.  If McClain can't use his speed, then he's not as effective, and his speed here is irrelevant.  This week...sit whoever you have to sit because he's a definite start.  Jacoby Jones will have his best week to date as the Cowboys have always had trouble with a talented 3rd receiver.

I would love to say that this is a great week for the Cowboys running backs because Houston hasn't seen this level of talent yet, but....I don't know which one would actually perform.  I think we'll see a ton of the three headed monster against Houston, and after sorting out preseason injuries, they may finally be in football shape.  That "option" attack would work against Houston's left side if Choice would get his head out of his ass and actually pitch the ball occasionally.  My best guess is Felix Jones finally gets outside with some good lead blocking.

San Fran at KC
KC can't smash Thomas Jones between the tackles over and over again this week.   This week has a Jamaal Charles feel to it.  Honestly though, Vernon Davis should shred any team that gave up 64 yards to Ben Watson.  Watch for KC to concentrate on shutting down Maoki seeing as Cassel hasn't shown he can throw to anyone else.  That doesn't necessarily mean that he will throw to anyone else....it just means that San Fran is a very good Defense to start this week. That said, KC has been effective of taking the #1 WR out of games, so it may be a rough week for Josh Morgan.

Sleepers:  Finally....Bowe and Crabtree justify their #2 WR draft spots.  I know I just said Cassel can't throw, so let me explain.  We saw the larger framed Mike Williams and Marques Colston post over 60 yards against the San Francisco D.  I'm not talking who got in the endzone...I'm looking at total opportunities.  This Bodes well for Dwayne Bowe.  Against KC, on top of Ben Watson and Antonio Gates, we also saw Naanee and Cribbs play well against the KC secondary. That means small, fast Split Ends are doing well getting escaping line bumps and getting past the secondary.  I'm getting the feeling KC safeties have Roy Williams/Ken Hamlinitis... good at hitting, bad at covering.  This may be the week Crabtree justifies his draft spot, and Ginn Jr. has one of his two 40 yard TD receptions for the season. 

Detroit at Minnesota
First off, AJ Smith is a dick.  You can officially drop V-Jax.  But even without a trade to boost team spirits, common says tells you that Minnesota is the team that will finally snap their winless streak.  Both Forte and LeSean McCoy had very good games against them....so what does that mean for AP?  On the flip side, P. Thomas and Ronnie Brown weren't exactly useless against Minnesota, but if Chicago can bottle up Best.....

That however is good news for Calvin Johnson as CB's have to move quicker off the bump in order to help with Best.  Keep in mind though....there will be alot of hot reads as Shaun Hill may not make it out alive.


Sleepers:  Wow...TE's are abundant.  There will be alot of 2 TE sets to help with the Minny DE's, which turned out great for Pettigrew last week.  I like him again in week 3.  The Vikings however will run all day long.  Tough to recommend anyone from the receiving corp.


Buffallo at New England;
Buffalo did a decent job against Brandon Marshall, and a very good job against Greg Jennings...but I wouldn't worry too much about Randy Moss.  Either way, I like the Pats to run all day.  They lost a great pass-protector in Faulk, and there's no reason to "open it up" against Buffalo.

Sleeper:  When they met in December of 2009, the Pats ran 34 times compared to 23 pass attempts.  Of course....most of those carries went to Maroney.  I like Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis and Fred Taylor this week for a Brown/Williams like 60-70 yards each with a fairly even rotation.  Any goal line work will likely go to Gronkowski at TE.  (Sorry A. Hernandez fans....it's just the way it's going to go.)  The big winner here though will be a Pats defense that should do alot of playmaking against a new QB.

Action Jackson seems to enjoy playing the Pats.  He had 80 yards in both games in 2009.  Of course, that's when there were only 2 RB's, and Chan Gailey wasn't busy turning the Bills into the worst pass first offense since Keanu Reeves QB'd the replacements.  The Pats haven't dealt with real speed yet, and allowed LT to do some damage against them.....so this may be CJ Spillers week.  Lets put it this way....if my decision is between the Pink Cadillac at Pitt, Michael Bush, CJ Spiller, and a retired Jim Brown....I'm taking Jim Brown.  Behind him, I'm taking Spiller.

Atlanta at New Orleans:
This is a big game.  Real big.  Bad week to have Turner hurting.  That said, he'll play.  I just wonder how effectively.  It's a weird matchup, because neither defense has seen a team that can throw the ball yet.  But good runners have done well against NO.  AP would have crossed 100 yards against NO if they just kept running.  Gore did some damage.  Atlanta will run, and run, and run.  On the flip side we've seen NO move the ball in the air against two pretty good defenses.  We've also seen Pierre Thomas have mediocre games against them.  This should be no different.  I'm not as worried about the lack of Reggie Bush, but it will create more spread receiver sets.

If you take away a 50 yard OT run by Mendenhall, and a 80 yard dash by Hightower, Atlanta hasn't allowed 100 yards rushing FOR THE SEASON.  The question is....will Thomas or Wynn be able to break a 50 yarder?  I'm not seeing it.  New Orleans will be forced into a spread offense, and Thomas may get LESS carries than usual.  Dunta Robinson will do just fine against Marques Colston, who was completely taken out of the Minnesota game.  Seeing as Atlanta has officially declared that they will now use every passing down to throw to Roddy White....he will see a ton of coverage.  But I don't know what that means for him.  Atlanta is tough to blitz because of all the running they do.  If NO can't blitz, they're not as effective at creating turnovers, which they heavily depend on.

I like Atlanta in this game.

Sleepers:  The main benefactors of an injured Reggie Bush will be Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.  I like them both this week.  They'll be taking the hot reads and check downs, and Colston has a bad matchup.  Even if Turner is healthy, Snelling will be used more, but I can't recommend starting him unless Turner is officially out.  No real sleepers for ATL, they'll just do what they do best.