I gotta apologize. I've had to attend to the normal going-ons of life over the past few weeks, mostly meaning I have had to turn my attention to things that actually pay me money. However, now that I have a few things settled, I've decided to turn back to my Fantasy Football addiction. Think of me as Robert Downey Jr. with alot less to lose. But I did get some games in yesterday (in a true man-like environment, complete with pizza, wings, and autumn settled candles) and I'm looking forward to sharing my findings. However, as my article length has been an issue with not only my readers, but also my love life, I've decided to keep it to a few relevant notes.
Philly v. San Fran;
LeSean McCoy is officially a top 10 back. He's used in every situation, and while San Fran isn't exactly the Pittsburgh D, he took his cortisone like a man and got the job done AGAIN. He's produced with Vick, he's produced with Kolb, and he's always a big part of the game plan. There's not that many must starts at RB in the league, but he's starting to look like one of them.
The only time the answer is " using in David Carr", is if the question is "How can I kill this drive by having my QB sacked twice and then overthrow an outside curl route?" If he starts week 6, feel free to cut the majority of your 49rs, and trade Gore. That said, I don't think he will. The next 3 weeks are Oakland, Carolina, and Denver. You can run on all 3, and I expect San Fran to do just that. I love the Niners new play calling. Not only do I think that Smith will keep the job......I think going forward he'll be a solid fantasy play.
Speaking of SF fantasy players.......I love the new play calling. It looks like the right thing is finally getting done by putting Crabtree in the Flanker spot, and moving Morgan back to split end. That gives Crabtree more flexibility to make plays. Buy now on Crabtree, Davis, Gore, and you should find Smith on the waiver wire.
Jerry Maclin is the new DeSean Jackson. At least while Kolb is under center. Even when Vick comes back, he probably has more week in- week out value as teams double up on Jackson.
Tennessee v. Dallas;
I figured out the problem with Dallas......it's my Romo Jersey. When I've worn my Romo jersey, the 'Boys have lost. When I wasn't wearing it in week 3 (I had plans immediately following the game) they won. When the Cowboys were down 17-3 yesterday, I took the jersey off, and a comeback ensued. Apparently while I'm wearing it, the Cowboys take on my tendencies for big risk taking, poor judgment, and sloppy play. On the upside, I've apparently vicariously banged Jessica Simpson.....when she was thin.
Hey....Felix Jones, nice to see you. Glad you can finally make it. Then again, after every running back not named Maroney has had similar success.........start all RB's you have against Tennessee. Except...you know...Maroney.
Roy Williams is for real. His hands aren't great, but his route running seems to have improved, and he looks to be on the same page as Romo. He's not an automatic start, but as long as the Cowboys need to chuck the ball 30 times in the second half every week, he's a nice guy to have on your team.
Kenny Britt will now start demanding some attention when the Titans actually throw. That translates into more consistency for Nate Washington.
Marion Barber has just become irrelevant for Fantasy purposes.
SD v. Raiders;
Mike Bush just made for a cloudy situation....but I don't think Oakland will push McFadden at this point. I like Bush to be grinding out games...but when will Oakland ever have a lead?
Never play the starting Oakland QB. Always play the backup.
Louis Murphy has quietly become a viable fantasy starter.
In a week where both Mathews and Tolbert were supposed to shine, neither had a huge impact. The bulk of the work went to Tolbert. That said, he wasn't very effective. In the long run....this may actually be a good thing. Mathews was sure to flame out in the last 3 weeks like every other rookie RB ever, so this helps save his legs a little for the end of the season. Congratulations Mathews owners....you can now get 70 yards a week out of your top 15 investment all season. He may actually get 5 more TD's over the next 11 games to top it all off.
Zach Miller is starting to become the option we new he would be. He's a solid start for the rest of the season, and about to make the transition from matchup play to must start.
Jags v. Buffallo
Trade MJD. Now. He's never going to get a full rest, so he'll be putting up mediocre numbers all season. There's plenty of owners that will still pay close to top dollar for him, so move him now before that "close to" becomes "far from."
Take a deep breath before bidding heavy on Steve Johnson. That said.......he's really showing how overrated Lee Evans is.
Fred Jackson is looking might tasty........but the guy you want to trade for is Spiller. This week it was a 12/5 ratio in carries. Next week it will be 18/10. Then by week 10.....14/14. Then.....by the playoffs....we can start to use the phrase "it's Spiller time." Get it? Instead of Miller time? That will be awesome.
They let Karim run...but never threw to him. The Jags aren't a big fan of throwing to Jennings either when healthy. This is why you want Mike Thomas......if MJD goes down, he may see the largest benefit of getting more targets.
TB v. Cincy
Palmer is not running that huddle. It's a time share of OchoCinco and Owens. Question...how much longer is OchoCinco going to let Owens get all the targets before he starts demanding more attention from his QB? And how will that end?
Shipley is not being used as Palmer is looking towards a single covered Owens and a talented Gresham. However, as teams start using more zones to cover Owens and OchoCinco, Shipley will be waiting their with his flypaper hands to keep moving the chain.
Mike Williams is awesome. Told ya.
Good luck with the Tampa Backfield. I've cut all members from all of my leagues. Even Cadillac. Noone has enough talent to overcome that kind of time share.
You can say the same for Stroughter, Spurlock, and Benn. Tampa is rotating offensive players in and out, and.....it looks like an effective strategy. That means Williams on the outside, and the rest of the team using fresh legs to outrun coverage in the middle. The only person that's good news for.......Freeman.
Atlanta v. Cleveland
C'mon Turner. Seriously......here's what I can say about Mike Turner: He's not going to average over 7 yards a carry in very many games. Snelling is going to be a part of this offense for awhile. Not a huge part...but enough to devalue Turner. It's nice that he got 140 yards, but it doesn't take away from the fact that he still has one rushing TD in 5 games.
Who is Matt Ryan? Here's who I think he is.......not a premier talent, but still a winner. I just think he's a guy that plays to his level of competition. What that means is that just when it looks like he has a good matchup, you still can't trust him with the start.
Hillis did most of his damage in the air. The point is though...he still did damage. Against a very good defense. He's a week-in, week-out starter now.
There is no hope for the Cleveland passing game. Please....please....stop playing Massoquoi. Yeah...every few weeks he'll put up some numbers, but a guy like Louis Murphy will have a few huge games as well, and has a much more fantasy friendly floor.
St. Louis, Detroit;
The loss of Mark Clayton hurts everyone......everyone.......in St. Louis. Danny Amendola seems like a nice guy, and he has great hands and quickness, but he's not going to be drawing coverage away from S. Jackson like Clayton was starting to. Don't expect Laurent to suddenly step up either. The one guy that may benefit is the lightning quick, sure handed rookie Mardy Gilyard. But unless he comes in soon, the Sam Bradford hype may be over. If you need a QB that bad for a bye week....Freeman may still be available.
While we're on Clayton........how does a guy with no career track record study a playbook for 6 days and become a solid number receiver after 6 years in the NFL? Seriously? Was it the Baltimore way of doing things? Is he just that much of a late bloomer? Is it a piling up of injuries over his career? It's probably a combination of all of that....but that said......if Demetrius Williams suddenly shows up in a starting lineup, I''m buying.
Even though they put up 44 points....no real standouts for Detroit. Except of course Shaun Hill. Matt Stafford is currently standing in a store in China town speaking to a Holistic Healer, and trying to figure out if the cream he's considering buying will pass a steroid test. There has been no controversy because Detroit's still been losing despite Hill's solid play. But if the Lions can manage to down the Giants in week 6....and there's several reasons that I think they can do it....there's going to be some big decisions to be made as they go into their bye week.
Indy v. KC
Look.....here's the thing.......Mike Hart normally really does produce when given the chance. He just never gets a chance because of his pass blocking. KC's run defense is no push over. He got the same amount of yards as Addai did with less carries. I don't care who's coming back from injury next week, he may have pushed himself into the mix a little.
This is the last time I'll say this........Maoeki is for real.
KC didn't really give us anything new to talk about. Charles is actually the man unless they need to grind it out. Bowe is a matchup guy when he has smaller defenders guarding him. Blah blah blah. But despite doing everything they could to lose that game....they didn't get blown out. That Defense is that good, and you need to start respecting it.
Monday, October 11, 2010
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Fantasy Football Week 3 Sleepers
With week 2 in the rear view mirror, it's time to move on. We take what we've learned, and we apply it to the future. It's kind of like college. Or trying to beat level 4 of Zelda. If you didn't take some hard lessons, you wouldn't know to avoid sleeping with the drunk sociology majors, as they will always end up crying rape. Thankfully you were only blackballed from one sorority....and there's a whole season ahead of you. So what can we expect out of week 3? Here's some game by game breakdowns for you, and some sleepers along the way. You will not hear the names of Randy Moss, Ray Rice, or Tony Romo, unless they are an absolute sit. These are the guys that you start maybe 10% of the time, or are currently on your waiver wire.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
The only conceivable way Baltimore loses is if they beat themselves.
And they might.
Don't get me wrong....I'm still putting my money on the Birds over the Browns, but after facing two very tough, physical defenses, I think Baltimore may take this opportunity to instill some confidence in their young quarterback that they've invested so much in. Cleveland has allowed Maoki and Winslow to put up nice gains against them. Given the developing bond between Flacco and Heap, I'm thinking Baltimore may expose that. Also....it might be time to give Rice a bit of a break in the fourth quarter, which means more of a terrible, terrible Willis McGahee. Put it all together...and it's not necessarily a winning strategy.
But it's still the Browns........
Sleepers: Flacco has a good week as part of your Carousel, and I'd take Heap over several other options at TE this week, including the popular waiver wire add Aaron Hernandez. The best way to attack Baltimore is to try to go deep...so I see Cribbs and Maoqui getting some shots downfield, with Harris getting plenty of checkdowns.
Cincy at Carolina:
The Panthers have to win sooner or later. But not this week. Jimmy Clausen gives them no chance. That said....I'm still not sold on Cincy. They are returning to a run first team, but remember....the Panthers held Bradshaw to -8 yards in the first half against the Giants, and did a very nice job of completely bottling up the Pink Cadillac. Both teams needed to accomplish something through the air in order to effectively move on the ground. And you know who's made a career out of shredding zone defenses?
Sleepers: TO. You drafted him....this is the week you actually want to start him. He can kill a zone blitz with short fade routes and curls. Also keep an eye on Shipley as a frequent hot read, but again....he doesn't have the ability to break one like TO does. (Yes...he still does.) I don't see any sleepers in Carolina.
Dallas at Houston
If the Cowboys win, it's only because Kardashian dumped Austin, and the Diva curse is removed. I know...it's hard to imagine the vaunted Cowboys losing 3 in a row. You can point to a sloppy Houston defense, and trouble with the left tackle, and say that there is hope.
But what's more plausible.....The Cowboys losing their first 3 games, OR the Cowboys going to Houston, successfully bottling up both Arian Foster and Andre Johnson at Houston, who they have never, ever beat even when Houston sucked. Probably the former. The Cowboys can't blitz all game with Foster being the threat he is, (note the 69 yards receiving v. Washington off check-downs) and you can't single cover Johnson with Terrance Newman. Beating Houston will take great coaching....
....which eliminates Dallas.
Bernard Pollard is the best Safety Dallas has seen so far. That probably means less than 140 yards for Austin. I'm also staying far away from Kevin Walters this week with Michael Jenkins draped all over him. But as for sleepers....
Sleepers: Dez Bryant. Can he be considered a sleeper? Not really...but I like his matchup against the 5'9" McClain. If McClain can't use his speed, then he's not as effective, and his speed here is irrelevant. This week...sit whoever you have to sit because he's a definite start. Jacoby Jones will have his best week to date as the Cowboys have always had trouble with a talented 3rd receiver.
I would love to say that this is a great week for the Cowboys running backs because Houston hasn't seen this level of talent yet, but....I don't know which one would actually perform. I think we'll see a ton of the three headed monster against Houston, and after sorting out preseason injuries, they may finally be in football shape. That "option" attack would work against Houston's left side if Choice would get his head out of his ass and actually pitch the ball occasionally. My best guess is Felix Jones finally gets outside with some good lead blocking.
San Fran at KC
KC can't smash Thomas Jones between the tackles over and over again this week. This week has a Jamaal Charles feel to it. Honestly though, Vernon Davis should shred any team that gave up 64 yards to Ben Watson. Watch for KC to concentrate on shutting down Maoki seeing as Cassel hasn't shown he can throw to anyone else. That doesn't necessarily mean that he will throw to anyone else....it just means that San Fran is a very good Defense to start this week. That said, KC has been effective of taking the #1 WR out of games, so it may be a rough week for Josh Morgan.
Sleepers: Finally....Bowe and Crabtree justify their #2 WR draft spots. I know I just said Cassel can't throw, so let me explain. We saw the larger framed Mike Williams and Marques Colston post over 60 yards against the San Francisco D. I'm not talking who got in the endzone...I'm looking at total opportunities. This Bodes well for Dwayne Bowe. Against KC, on top of Ben Watson and Antonio Gates, we also saw Naanee and Cribbs play well against the KC secondary. That means small, fast Split Ends are doing well getting escaping line bumps and getting past the secondary. I'm getting the feeling KC safeties have Roy Williams/Ken Hamlinitis... good at hitting, bad at covering. This may be the week Crabtree justifies his draft spot, and Ginn Jr. has one of his two 40 yard TD receptions for the season.
Detroit at Minnesota
First off, AJ Smith is a dick. You can officially drop V-Jax. But even without a trade to boost team spirits, common says tells you that Minnesota is the team that will finally snap their winless streak. Both Forte and LeSean McCoy had very good games against them....so what does that mean for AP? On the flip side, P. Thomas and Ronnie Brown weren't exactly useless against Minnesota, but if Chicago can bottle up Best.....
That however is good news for Calvin Johnson as CB's have to move quicker off the bump in order to help with Best. Keep in mind though....there will be alot of hot reads as Shaun Hill may not make it out alive.
Sleepers: Wow...TE's are abundant. There will be alot of 2 TE sets to help with the Minny DE's, which turned out great for Pettigrew last week. I like him again in week 3. The Vikings however will run all day long. Tough to recommend anyone from the receiving corp.
Buffallo at New England;
Buffalo did a decent job against Brandon Marshall, and a very good job against Greg Jennings...but I wouldn't worry too much about Randy Moss. Either way, I like the Pats to run all day. They lost a great pass-protector in Faulk, and there's no reason to "open it up" against Buffalo.
Sleeper: When they met in December of 2009, the Pats ran 34 times compared to 23 pass attempts. Of course....most of those carries went to Maroney. I like Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis and Fred Taylor this week for a Brown/Williams like 60-70 yards each with a fairly even rotation. Any goal line work will likely go to Gronkowski at TE. (Sorry A. Hernandez fans....it's just the way it's going to go.) The big winner here though will be a Pats defense that should do alot of playmaking against a new QB.
Action Jackson seems to enjoy playing the Pats. He had 80 yards in both games in 2009. Of course, that's when there were only 2 RB's, and Chan Gailey wasn't busy turning the Bills into the worst pass first offense since Keanu Reeves QB'd the replacements. The Pats haven't dealt with real speed yet, and allowed LT to do some damage against them.....so this may be CJ Spillers week. Lets put it this way....if my decision is between the Pink Cadillac at Pitt, Michael Bush, CJ Spiller, and a retired Jim Brown....I'm taking Jim Brown. Behind him, I'm taking Spiller.
Atlanta at New Orleans:
This is a big game. Real big. Bad week to have Turner hurting. That said, he'll play. I just wonder how effectively. It's a weird matchup, because neither defense has seen a team that can throw the ball yet. But good runners have done well against NO. AP would have crossed 100 yards against NO if they just kept running. Gore did some damage. Atlanta will run, and run, and run. On the flip side we've seen NO move the ball in the air against two pretty good defenses. We've also seen Pierre Thomas have mediocre games against them. This should be no different. I'm not as worried about the lack of Reggie Bush, but it will create more spread receiver sets.
If you take away a 50 yard OT run by Mendenhall, and a 80 yard dash by Hightower, Atlanta hasn't allowed 100 yards rushing FOR THE SEASON. The question is....will Thomas or Wynn be able to break a 50 yarder? I'm not seeing it. New Orleans will be forced into a spread offense, and Thomas may get LESS carries than usual. Dunta Robinson will do just fine against Marques Colston, who was completely taken out of the Minnesota game. Seeing as Atlanta has officially declared that they will now use every passing down to throw to Roddy White....he will see a ton of coverage. But I don't know what that means for him. Atlanta is tough to blitz because of all the running they do. If NO can't blitz, they're not as effective at creating turnovers, which they heavily depend on.
I like Atlanta in this game.
Sleepers: The main benefactors of an injured Reggie Bush will be Lance Moore and Devery Henderson. I like them both this week. They'll be taking the hot reads and check downs, and Colston has a bad matchup. Even if Turner is healthy, Snelling will be used more, but I can't recommend starting him unless Turner is officially out. No real sleepers for ATL, they'll just do what they do best.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
The only conceivable way Baltimore loses is if they beat themselves.
And they might.
Don't get me wrong....I'm still putting my money on the Birds over the Browns, but after facing two very tough, physical defenses, I think Baltimore may take this opportunity to instill some confidence in their young quarterback that they've invested so much in. Cleveland has allowed Maoki and Winslow to put up nice gains against them. Given the developing bond between Flacco and Heap, I'm thinking Baltimore may expose that. Also....it might be time to give Rice a bit of a break in the fourth quarter, which means more of a terrible, terrible Willis McGahee. Put it all together...and it's not necessarily a winning strategy.
But it's still the Browns........
Sleepers: Flacco has a good week as part of your Carousel, and I'd take Heap over several other options at TE this week, including the popular waiver wire add Aaron Hernandez. The best way to attack Baltimore is to try to go deep...so I see Cribbs and Maoqui getting some shots downfield, with Harris getting plenty of checkdowns.
Cincy at Carolina:
The Panthers have to win sooner or later. But not this week. Jimmy Clausen gives them no chance. That said....I'm still not sold on Cincy. They are returning to a run first team, but remember....the Panthers held Bradshaw to -8 yards in the first half against the Giants, and did a very nice job of completely bottling up the Pink Cadillac. Both teams needed to accomplish something through the air in order to effectively move on the ground. And you know who's made a career out of shredding zone defenses?
Sleepers: TO. You drafted him....this is the week you actually want to start him. He can kill a zone blitz with short fade routes and curls. Also keep an eye on Shipley as a frequent hot read, but again....he doesn't have the ability to break one like TO does. (Yes...he still does.) I don't see any sleepers in Carolina.
Dallas at Houston
If the Cowboys win, it's only because Kardashian dumped Austin, and the Diva curse is removed. I know...it's hard to imagine the vaunted Cowboys losing 3 in a row. You can point to a sloppy Houston defense, and trouble with the left tackle, and say that there is hope.
But what's more plausible.....The Cowboys losing their first 3 games, OR the Cowboys going to Houston, successfully bottling up both Arian Foster and Andre Johnson at Houston, who they have never, ever beat even when Houston sucked. Probably the former. The Cowboys can't blitz all game with Foster being the threat he is, (note the 69 yards receiving v. Washington off check-downs) and you can't single cover Johnson with Terrance Newman. Beating Houston will take great coaching....
....which eliminates Dallas.
Bernard Pollard is the best Safety Dallas has seen so far. That probably means less than 140 yards for Austin. I'm also staying far away from Kevin Walters this week with Michael Jenkins draped all over him. But as for sleepers....
Sleepers: Dez Bryant. Can he be considered a sleeper? Not really...but I like his matchup against the 5'9" McClain. If McClain can't use his speed, then he's not as effective, and his speed here is irrelevant. This week...sit whoever you have to sit because he's a definite start. Jacoby Jones will have his best week to date as the Cowboys have always had trouble with a talented 3rd receiver.
I would love to say that this is a great week for the Cowboys running backs because Houston hasn't seen this level of talent yet, but....I don't know which one would actually perform. I think we'll see a ton of the three headed monster against Houston, and after sorting out preseason injuries, they may finally be in football shape. That "option" attack would work against Houston's left side if Choice would get his head out of his ass and actually pitch the ball occasionally. My best guess is Felix Jones finally gets outside with some good lead blocking.
San Fran at KC
KC can't smash Thomas Jones between the tackles over and over again this week. This week has a Jamaal Charles feel to it. Honestly though, Vernon Davis should shred any team that gave up 64 yards to Ben Watson. Watch for KC to concentrate on shutting down Maoki seeing as Cassel hasn't shown he can throw to anyone else. That doesn't necessarily mean that he will throw to anyone else....it just means that San Fran is a very good Defense to start this week. That said, KC has been effective of taking the #1 WR out of games, so it may be a rough week for Josh Morgan.
Sleepers: Finally....Bowe and Crabtree justify their #2 WR draft spots. I know I just said Cassel can't throw, so let me explain. We saw the larger framed Mike Williams and Marques Colston post over 60 yards against the San Francisco D. I'm not talking who got in the endzone...I'm looking at total opportunities. This Bodes well for Dwayne Bowe. Against KC, on top of Ben Watson and Antonio Gates, we also saw Naanee and Cribbs play well against the KC secondary. That means small, fast Split Ends are doing well getting escaping line bumps and getting past the secondary. I'm getting the feeling KC safeties have Roy Williams/Ken Hamlinitis... good at hitting, bad at covering. This may be the week Crabtree justifies his draft spot, and Ginn Jr. has one of his two 40 yard TD receptions for the season.
Detroit at Minnesota
First off, AJ Smith is a dick. You can officially drop V-Jax. But even without a trade to boost team spirits, common says tells you that Minnesota is the team that will finally snap their winless streak. Both Forte and LeSean McCoy had very good games against them....so what does that mean for AP? On the flip side, P. Thomas and Ronnie Brown weren't exactly useless against Minnesota, but if Chicago can bottle up Best.....
That however is good news for Calvin Johnson as CB's have to move quicker off the bump in order to help with Best. Keep in mind though....there will be alot of hot reads as Shaun Hill may not make it out alive.
Sleepers: Wow...TE's are abundant. There will be alot of 2 TE sets to help with the Minny DE's, which turned out great for Pettigrew last week. I like him again in week 3. The Vikings however will run all day long. Tough to recommend anyone from the receiving corp.
Buffallo at New England;
Buffalo did a decent job against Brandon Marshall, and a very good job against Greg Jennings...but I wouldn't worry too much about Randy Moss. Either way, I like the Pats to run all day. They lost a great pass-protector in Faulk, and there's no reason to "open it up" against Buffalo.
Sleeper: When they met in December of 2009, the Pats ran 34 times compared to 23 pass attempts. Of course....most of those carries went to Maroney. I like Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis and Fred Taylor this week for a Brown/Williams like 60-70 yards each with a fairly even rotation. Any goal line work will likely go to Gronkowski at TE. (Sorry A. Hernandez fans....it's just the way it's going to go.) The big winner here though will be a Pats defense that should do alot of playmaking against a new QB.
Action Jackson seems to enjoy playing the Pats. He had 80 yards in both games in 2009. Of course, that's when there were only 2 RB's, and Chan Gailey wasn't busy turning the Bills into the worst pass first offense since Keanu Reeves QB'd the replacements. The Pats haven't dealt with real speed yet, and allowed LT to do some damage against them.....so this may be CJ Spillers week. Lets put it this way....if my decision is between the Pink Cadillac at Pitt, Michael Bush, CJ Spiller, and a retired Jim Brown....I'm taking Jim Brown. Behind him, I'm taking Spiller.
Atlanta at New Orleans:
This is a big game. Real big. Bad week to have Turner hurting. That said, he'll play. I just wonder how effectively. It's a weird matchup, because neither defense has seen a team that can throw the ball yet. But good runners have done well against NO. AP would have crossed 100 yards against NO if they just kept running. Gore did some damage. Atlanta will run, and run, and run. On the flip side we've seen NO move the ball in the air against two pretty good defenses. We've also seen Pierre Thomas have mediocre games against them. This should be no different. I'm not as worried about the lack of Reggie Bush, but it will create more spread receiver sets.
If you take away a 50 yard OT run by Mendenhall, and a 80 yard dash by Hightower, Atlanta hasn't allowed 100 yards rushing FOR THE SEASON. The question is....will Thomas or Wynn be able to break a 50 yarder? I'm not seeing it. New Orleans will be forced into a spread offense, and Thomas may get LESS carries than usual. Dunta Robinson will do just fine against Marques Colston, who was completely taken out of the Minnesota game. Seeing as Atlanta has officially declared that they will now use every passing down to throw to Roddy White....he will see a ton of coverage. But I don't know what that means for him. Atlanta is tough to blitz because of all the running they do. If NO can't blitz, they're not as effective at creating turnovers, which they heavily depend on.
I like Atlanta in this game.
Sleepers: The main benefactors of an injured Reggie Bush will be Lance Moore and Devery Henderson. I like them both this week. They'll be taking the hot reads and check downs, and Colston has a bad matchup. Even if Turner is healthy, Snelling will be used more, but I can't recommend starting him unless Turner is officially out. No real sleepers for ATL, they'll just do what they do best.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Fantasy Football Week 2 Notebook: Vick for MVP
I think there's something about the letter V that resonates differently between the sexes. As far as men are concerned...we love V words. There's something about words that start with V that's...well....awesome. Women though....it just seems the same words rub them a completely different way. It turns them off. Here are some words that men think are awesome, but seem to irritate women:
Vagina...ever try to use the word "Vagina" during dirty talk? Ever call your friend a Vagina while your gal is standing next to you? Apparently, the only time it's acceptable for a man to use this word is if he's A) a doctor, B) a health teacher, or C) Steve Carrel. (You gotta see Date Night. You'll want to marry Tina Fey, regardless of how unattractive you know she is in real life.)
Voluptuous....but it's only bad if we use it 3 times in the next 15 minutes after watching an episode of MadMen. When you have to switch sitting positions every time Christina Hendricks hits the screen, they notice.
Voltron...self explanatory.
Vick. It's okay to say that Vick belongs back in jail....but when you follow up "Vick" with "for MVP" around the female population....you will get more dirty looks than if you had your shoes on in a Shinto Temple. You're honestly better off recommending Mike Tyson for President than Mike Vick for MVP around the female gender. Yeah...rape sucks, but don't fuck with my puppy!
My favorite statement of this weekend came from my buddy Keating, who said "The NFL brought it on themselves by allowing him back in the league." If you can't automatically deduce what that conversation regarded, I would like to ask if you wouldn't mind carrying this bag of weed with you next time you fly down to see me. Thanks.
Vick will not be league MVP, but he did open some eyes against the juggernaut defense of....um....Detroit. Okay, it wasn't exactly an unstoppable force against an immovable object. But he'll be fun to talk about. Going around the league...plenty of teams gave us plenty to mention in this weeks notebook.
Arizona at Atlanta;
If there's anything this game proved, it's how good the Pittsburgh D really is. The Falcons treated the Cards like Hulk Hogan treats his women. They were rough, controlling, and secretly they wished the person lining up across from them was a man. Atlanta keeps my vote to be the NFC Superbowl representative. In the meantime....as you're reading this, Ken Wisenhunt is on his knees in front of Kurt Warner and trying to unzip his pants. However, this will be to no avail. If you've ever seen Brenda Warner, you understand that Kurt prefers his bitches to be more masculine than Ken.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Tony Gonzalez is officially not getting to 1000 yards this season. He was 5th in targets for the Falcons, meaning that even in the redzone, Matt Ryan is looking elsewhere, and this team has a serious commitment to justifying Roddy White's contract. His next two weeks are against New Orleans, and San Diego. I doubt either team will force Atlanta to throw frequently....but if Gonzalez can get a good game in their somewhere, trade him immediately.
LaRod Stephens Howling had 25 yards through the air, but didn't receive any carries. But you don't run much when you're down by 30+. If Beanie Wells isn't back, he may be a useful pickup against the Raiders in week 3.
We have our first in-season Stephen Williams sighting. 2 grabs for 26 yards. If there is a breakout player in Arizona....I'm maintaining it's Williams and his huge frame as opposed to Early Doucet. If Breaston or Fitzgerald go down...make him a priority.
Turner has a "mild groin strain." With New Orleans on the docket next week....Atlanta will make sure he's "healthy."
If you take out Hightower's 80 yard run, he's still under 4 yards per carry. He may be a nice piece of a package for someone desperate at RB in a trade, but it's tough to recommend him for a start.
Tampa at Carolina
John Fox officially doesn't give an F anymore. The stats suggest there was just no game plan for Freeman that didn't include a few wild throws that ended up as luck interceptions. Freeman ran well, threw efficiently, and I'm pretty sure he banged Fox's wife at half time for good measure. I've said before that Freeman has talent. If I can see that, Fox should be able to see that too. Fox is biding his time waiting for the Giants gig to open up. That said, I think the Giants may take the East, meaning Coughlin will keep the job. Have fun in Cleveland Coach Fox.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I spent alot of time wondering aloud before the season why everyone was so high on Stewart. He generally puts up acceptable numbers, but his real value depends on a DeAngelo Williams injury. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, but as long as Carolina has to pass in the second half of every game, you might want a new #2 RB.
Why is Mike Williams still available in 32% of fantasy leagues?
I'm done talking about Kareem Huggins. Therefore, he should finally get the ball next week if he's recovered from his injury. I'm guessing Cadillac goes down week 5.
Speaking of the Pink Cadillac.....49 carries this season....126 yards. That's about 3 yards a carry against a run D that gave up 82 yards to Thomas Jones, and 100+ yards to the Giants. Earnest Graham is looking better and better after catching 5 balls this weekend. That backfield situation isn't as settled as it looks.
The Clausen era begins. Poor Steve Smith. But it could be worse....he could be Dwayne Jarret. If Carolina is so determined to suck this year, why not get some draft picks from Minnesota for your underutilized but talented receiving corp?
Baltimore at Cincinnati
I don't know if this was a hiccup for Baltimore, or if Cincy's that good, but I'm not worried about the Ravens long term prospects. Yes....Flacco was Jamarcus Russel bad, but I'm not putting it all on him. Six non-catches by what's supposed to be your #2 WR will hurt your game-plan, and create a whole bunch of third and longs. There was still a nice TD pass to Mason, and good use of Heap and Rice. I'm confident this will get better with time. The same can be said about Cincy. The ball was spread all over the place, and Benson had a respectable game, but they couldn't punch it in against this Ravens D. After Pittsburgh in week 4, this team has several valuable players.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Jordan Shipley had another solid game, but they only look to him for short yardage. His longest catch was 11 yards. He'll get his fair share of targets, but won't see the endzone very frequently. Don't buy too high on him.
Housh....you're better than that. Next week you have Cleveland, and no excuses. If Housh doesn't do much in week 3, he's better off on your leagues wire than on your bench.
I no longer want to hear about Baltimore using a RBBC. Willis McGahee still sucks, and Ray Rice is still incredible. This is not a committee situation. This is 80% Rice, 20% everyone else.
Todd Heap was second in receptions for Baltimore, including a 19 yarder. It's time to take him seriously, and I like him for week 3.
With Carolina, Cleveland, and Tampa on Deck, it's time to make a move for TO. Teams have to worry about Gresham and Shipley, and need to shift coverage to OchoCinco. Cincy will see a ton of zone D's, and TO has made a career out of shredding them.
KC at Cleveland
Kansas City is like Courtney Love after her glam-makeover. Some aspects are appealing, but overall their just still too dirty to really be attractive. T. Jones with 22 carries? Why? Do you absolutely hate scoring? And Cleveland....I just won't have much to say about them this season.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Bring back Thigpen! Matt Cassel's performance officially proves how overrated Tom Brady is. He is not even worth a #3 QB spot on your roster right now. Unfortunately, that also downgrades Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers, and anyone else that depends on a ball thrown more than 8 yards.
Tony Maoki led the team in yards and receptions. That won't be the last time that happens this season. The TE position is getting ridiculously deep....but he could be a very valuable member of a Carousel.
Josh Cribbs finally got some looks. He will get many, many more as the season progresses. Cleveland will always be trailing, so Cribbs will always be getting looks for long completions.
I was having trouble coming up with a nickname for Jerome Harris and Peyton Hillis, but then I realized they don't deserve one. You can't trade them, and with Baltimore, Cincy, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh on deck....you can't use them. Save the four weeks of heartache and cut them now for someone with actual potential. (Chris Ivory? Anybody?)
Chicago at Dallas
Somewhere around 8pm on Sunday, it was disclosed that Kim Kardashian dumped Miles Austin.
I have no more hero's.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
There are no regularly useful Dallas RB's. I had a very strong feeling that Barber would be their leading rusher for week 2. I did not think that meant 31 total yards.
If the Cowboys kept pressure on Cutler they would have been fine. (Thanks again Wade Phillips.) Expect that to be the last time any team doesn't send 7 guys at him almost every play. Matt Forte is no threat on the ground, so there is nothing that will hold any team back from forcing 4 INT's a game. Cutler will be a great fantasy contributor, but he still has plenty of weeks ahead of him where he'll kill you. Time to sell high.
Maybe De-Kardashianizing the Cowboys locker room will lead to a win. Or maybe they've never beat Houston, and this doesn't seem like the best time to do it. That said....my money is still on them this weekend.
If you combine Witten and Bennet's numbers, you get one productive TE. Witten will put up yards this season, but expect another 2-4 TD's. Conversely, even though he got in the endzone, it's safe to cut Olsen given the TE depth out there right now.
Why is Roy Williams still on the field?
Earl Bennet replacing Aromashodu means great things for Devin Hester. Not for Earl Bennet.
This is your last chance to get Dez Bryant before he completely destroys Houston. The 5' 9" McCain will not be able to cover him on the sidelines. It may also be a nice time to try to pry Romo from the hands of his owner by consistently mentioning his 2 TD's so far. That will change. As far as I'm concerned, that just means he's saving his other 30 TD's for the last 14 games.
Philly at Detroit;
Kolb is still the man. The NFL is still very political. The Eagles can't afford to have Vick as the face of their franchise, and I'm sure there may be some pressure from the top of the NFL to make sure that doesn't happen. But he should have a good post lockout year in 2012 with Cincinnati. Detroit on the other hand is already everybody's favorite "surprise playoff pick" for next season.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I think Detroit's offensive identity is really starting to take shape. Let me ask you.....if you're starting a team from scratch, would you rather have Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Mike Turner, or Jahvid Best, Pettigrew and Calvin Johnson. I'd take the latter......
Speaking of Pettigrew....check out weeks 10-16 for Detroit and tell me he won't be a fantasy playoff factor. Even I thought Burleson may benefit from the Megatron double team, but it looks like Pettigrew is the man.
LeSean McCoy likes turf. Too bad he won't see it again until week 16 at Minny. Jahvid Best also likes turf. He's a nice option at home, and will likely give you top 12 RB stats this year.
Don't lose faith in Avant. He'll get plenty of opportunity with Kolb back in the lineup.
Miami at Minnesota;
Look...I'll say it again...Favre didn't JUST get old. He HAS been old. He just hasn't been as exposed since...well....2008. If Harvin is recovered by next week, he'll be a top option, V-Jax likely joins in week 6 against Dallas, and Sidney Rice is back in week 9. This is buy low time on all four of those guys. Conversely...you've seen everything you're going to see about Miami. Just 15 attempts by Henne, and it took a 50 yard dash for any RB to be relevant. The NFC North will be cruel to them. But heh...at least week 15 and 16 is Buffalo and Detroit.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Shiancoe > Tony Gonzalez. At least until Minny gets some receivers back.
If Peterson gets hurt, don't grab Gerhart. But if Albert Young is still hurt....still avoid Gerhart.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee:
Take away a holding penalty that negates an 85 yard Chris Johnson TD, and this is a very different game. Regardless of who's under center, Tennessee is very dangerous. Vince Young is still the man for Tennessee. At least for the first half of week 3. Part of me thinks the one guy that wants Big Ben to come back the most is actually Charlie Batch.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Week 6 doesn't just mean that fantasy leagues see the return of an additional great option at QB with Big Ben. It also means they get an additional great option at WR with Mike Wallace.
This week proved that Gage and Britt can still be solid fantasy options.....as long as Collins is under center.
After McFadden gave a big performance against Tennessee in week 1, I expected more out of Mendenhall. Be very wary of him if he's your #1 option right now.
Seattle at Denver:
It's like that interception on Seattle's opening drive reminded the entire team that they are supposed to suck. That's the last time I recommend Hasselback, and we're not too far away from the Charlie Whitehurst era. I will say though that the Seattle D is better than it looked, and while Orton may be methodical, the schedule suggests he'll remain productive week in and week out.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Slow your roll on Demaryius Thomas. He's talented, but he's still limited on his routes meaning he'll disappear in more games than he'll produce in.
Eddie Royal is making defenses look stupid. This kid has found his role, and will be productive going forward.
Deon Butler has cut out his spot as Seattle's top option. That really just means Seattle doesn't have a top option. But the diminutive speedster will be a nice compliment to Mike Williams going forward.
A Week 3 loss means Whitehurst in week 5. But I still like Seattle's chances.
Keep an eye on Maroney's health. Moreno isn't impressing anyone right now. I have a feeling Maroney is this years Beanie Wells, getting the heavier load by the end of the season.
Forsett disappeared in the second half, but still led the team in carries, and had 5.5 ypc. My guess is, if it's close he'll play alot. If it's not they'll keep him on the bench. He's going to be a very good start against very bad teams. Luckily he still has 4 more games against AZ and St. Louis.....as well as Oakland and KC on the docket....so his forecast is looking up.
St. Louis at Oakland;
I like Gradkowsi. It just seems fitting to me that the Raiders have a grizzled polish veteran QB back there. In the meantime, St. Louis continues to find new and interesting ways to not score.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I still don't know exactly what to expect out of Clayton, but I want him on my team. It's unlikely that every week his only 2 catches will result in TD's....but I think it's also unlikely he'll only get 2 catches every week. Oakland's pass D is better than you think, so I like him as a solid #2 this year.
Louis Murphy finally hit paydirt, and that won't be the last time. He's Oakland's deep threat, and I love him against weaker D's like St. Louis. Considering Arizona and Houston are next up, he's a nice add this week. He'll give you better, more consistent numbers than DHB.
I have no answer for your Michael Bush problem. I'm heavily invested in him this year, and that's proving to be a bad decision. There's just no way he gets more than 5-8 carries a game on his return without a McFadden injury. I'm just hoping he ends up being the goal line back....but how often will Oakland see the goal line?
Stephen Jackson < 12 other backs.
Danny Amendola is still your chain mover. Make sure to pick him up when you absolutely need 4 points exactly. But a decent option for PPR leagues.
New England v. NYJ
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!! F you Brady. I hope you've seen your last Superbowl. On the upside, your haircut suggests that you have a brilliant acting career ahead of you if they do another Charlie's Angels remake.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I have no answer for Shonn Greene. Hopefully he'll just be well rested for the second half of the season and then go apeshit again. Right now, I have alot more confidence in starting LT than I do Greene, but I'm guessing that will change as the season wears on.
Do not bank on seeing that Mark Sanchez performance again until 2012.
Braylon Edwards got arrested or hurt again or something. Whatever. At least Santonio Holmes has a full time gig when he gets back, but it's always tough to recommend any Jets receiver....even after last Sunday's performance.
BenJarvis Green-Ellis got the bulk of the carries, while rotating series with Taylor. Faulk is now hurt, so the Law Firm is worth a good hard look with Buffalo and Miami up next.
I know Wes Welker is Brady's woobie, but given the amount of targets he gets, the old Welker would have done more with them. Sell high. Now. He came back too soon, and I don't think he'll last 16 games.
We've seen this TE situation before out of NE. I still think Gronkowski gets the goal line work, but Hernandez will have more relevant games. Unfortunately, they will ultimately cancel each others value out. Either can make your week....but you might be better off with a consistent Maoki or Chris Cooley.
Jacksonville at San Diego;
I don't even know what this game told us. It left us with more questions than answers. Rivers had good stats. He only missed 7 times out of 29. He had 3 TD's and broke 300 yards. But he still threw 2 INT's. Is that cause for worry? The only Jags player worth starting was Sims-Walker, who was completely missing from week 1. Who is Jacksonville's QB now? How "minor" is Ryan Mathews injury? Don't get too down on the Jags D. They are very young, and they'll progress as the season goes on. Courtney Greene looked like a monster, but it's tough to play well when turnovers give MJD the chance to be 6th in tackles. (It's true! Google it!)
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Ummm....Buster Davis? Really? What happened to Naanee? I think if you have a reasonably sized corner guarding him....Naanee's going to disappear. Keep that in mind for your weekly matchups.
Tolbert > Mathews. I own Mathews in a league, and I just wish the injury was more severe so I could safely dump him. I don't think he'll be rushed back, and when he comes back how will that ankle treat him? Will he still carry the load? I'm worried. Very worried. But I look like a genius by saying Best will have a better season.
Don't tell me MJD's not hurt. They couldn't get him off the field fast enough when the game was kinda-sorta out of reach. I rarely recommend handcuffing....but if you own MJD, you really need Jennings over a guy like Felix Jones on your bench.
Mike Thomas is pure speed. He hasn't seen the endzone yet, but he's still going to have a hell of a season.
Houston at Washington
Where there any surprises here? Oh...yeah....Kevin Walter. That...and the score was as close as it was. These are two paper thin pass defenses...you would expect Houston to come out on top. But you would expect them to come out on top by 14, not 3. Nice job Washington. Keep your chin up.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Start every QB, WR, and TE you can against Houston and Washington from here forward.
Is there a Texan you don't want to own right now? Kevin Walters....damn. Time to take him seriously. Very, very seriously. At least until Schaub gets hurt. It looks like having Jacoby on the field with him is allowing for matchups with safeties....and he's winning.
Schaub is being hailed as an MVP. His ankle/knee/back/shoulder all disagree.
Arian Foster still got 138 total yards. It's looking very likely he'll be a top 3 RB. You can't key on him...otherwise that passing game will rip you up.
Jacoby Jones finally got into the endzone. Told ya.
Cooley and Santana Moss are turning into every week options very quickly. I would love a Cooley/Pettigrew/Heap/Maoki/A.Gonzales combination somewhere. If you have a tradeable high profile TE, and can get a couple of these guys off the wire....fill a need somewhere else.
Portis YPC = 2.5. Those TD's masked a very, very bad game. Johnson = -7 yards. Again. We're getting closer to Ryan Torain every week.
Giants at Indy
Nice job with the helmet there Jacobs. You just gave NY every reason in the world to continue to ignore you. I never, ever, ever want to hear again that Brady is better than Peyton Manning. His stats weren't other-wordly, but he just tore that defense apart. It was like watching Ron Jeremy direct a porn. Even if he's not the star of the show.....you know the results will excite you. When he retires, I would really, really like him to coach the Cowboys. Or perhaps run for president and fix our economy so I don't have so much time for blogging. Manning I mean....not Jeremy. Giants fans....don't lose hope. You'll still likely win the division. You just got outclassed by a master.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Lost amidst the blowout was how well Eli actually performed. The sacks hurt, and only 50% completions.....but he still got off a couple bombs for TD's under ridiculous pressure. I'm really starting to believe that he's turned the corner, and we can expect 4000 and 26-28 annually. Indy just had his number, and while Bradshaw is good......he's not Arian Foster.
Speaking of Bradshaw....he's now officially a very good #2 RB that should provide bankable points on a weekly basis.
I don't know what to think about Steve Smith....but it doesn't look good for him this year. With Nicks and Manningham taking the deep ball work, he's relegated to a possession role. Still useful, but not what you drafted.
Pierre Garcon is officially irrelevant. Those week 1 drops will haunt him all season. Sorry Garcon....but Manning is only looking at guys that catch balls regularly.
Apparently Addai and Brown can in fact be useful. You'll just never know which one, and never know when.
New Orleans at San Francisco;
So safe to say that San Fran has a decent run defense. Also safe to say that New Orleans has a decent pass defense. But.......short of Frank Gore, nobody was very inspiring, and that may be the theme of these teams going forward.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
You know you're good when 254 yards and 2 TD's on a 75% completion percentage is blase. So is the life of Drew Brees.
Hi Alex....meet Michael. Mr. Crabtree is your best reciever. I know it's been awhile since you've had reason to speak, but now that everyone is healthy, you might want to try running some drills together. If you don't figure it out against KC next week....you're not going to figure it out. In the meantime, if you own Crabtree...Morgan had 6 receptions for 70 yards against New Orleans. If you have some space, grab him now. If he's the primary guy against KC....then he's the primary guy for 2010.
With Reggie Bush hurt, it's time to make Chris Ivory a waiver priority. I don't care how hurt he is. Atlanta is a tough test.....but I like him for week 4 when Carolina comes to town.
Forget Marques Colston against Atlanta. My guess is Lance Moore finally gets his shot, taking the check down TD's that normally go Reggie Bush's way.
Vagina...ever try to use the word "Vagina" during dirty talk? Ever call your friend a Vagina while your gal is standing next to you? Apparently, the only time it's acceptable for a man to use this word is if he's A) a doctor, B) a health teacher, or C) Steve Carrel. (You gotta see Date Night. You'll want to marry Tina Fey, regardless of how unattractive you know she is in real life.)
Voluptuous....but it's only bad if we use it 3 times in the next 15 minutes after watching an episode of MadMen. When you have to switch sitting positions every time Christina Hendricks hits the screen, they notice.
Voltron...self explanatory.
Vick. It's okay to say that Vick belongs back in jail....but when you follow up "Vick" with "for MVP" around the female population....you will get more dirty looks than if you had your shoes on in a Shinto Temple. You're honestly better off recommending Mike Tyson for President than Mike Vick for MVP around the female gender. Yeah...rape sucks, but don't fuck with my puppy!
My favorite statement of this weekend came from my buddy Keating, who said "The NFL brought it on themselves by allowing him back in the league." If you can't automatically deduce what that conversation regarded, I would like to ask if you wouldn't mind carrying this bag of weed with you next time you fly down to see me. Thanks.
Vick will not be league MVP, but he did open some eyes against the juggernaut defense of....um....Detroit. Okay, it wasn't exactly an unstoppable force against an immovable object. But he'll be fun to talk about. Going around the league...plenty of teams gave us plenty to mention in this weeks notebook.
Arizona at Atlanta;
If there's anything this game proved, it's how good the Pittsburgh D really is. The Falcons treated the Cards like Hulk Hogan treats his women. They were rough, controlling, and secretly they wished the person lining up across from them was a man. Atlanta keeps my vote to be the NFC Superbowl representative. In the meantime....as you're reading this, Ken Wisenhunt is on his knees in front of Kurt Warner and trying to unzip his pants. However, this will be to no avail. If you've ever seen Brenda Warner, you understand that Kurt prefers his bitches to be more masculine than Ken.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Tony Gonzalez is officially not getting to 1000 yards this season. He was 5th in targets for the Falcons, meaning that even in the redzone, Matt Ryan is looking elsewhere, and this team has a serious commitment to justifying Roddy White's contract. His next two weeks are against New Orleans, and San Diego. I doubt either team will force Atlanta to throw frequently....but if Gonzalez can get a good game in their somewhere, trade him immediately.
LaRod Stephens Howling had 25 yards through the air, but didn't receive any carries. But you don't run much when you're down by 30+. If Beanie Wells isn't back, he may be a useful pickup against the Raiders in week 3.
We have our first in-season Stephen Williams sighting. 2 grabs for 26 yards. If there is a breakout player in Arizona....I'm maintaining it's Williams and his huge frame as opposed to Early Doucet. If Breaston or Fitzgerald go down...make him a priority.
Turner has a "mild groin strain." With New Orleans on the docket next week....Atlanta will make sure he's "healthy."
If you take out Hightower's 80 yard run, he's still under 4 yards per carry. He may be a nice piece of a package for someone desperate at RB in a trade, but it's tough to recommend him for a start.
Tampa at Carolina
John Fox officially doesn't give an F anymore. The stats suggest there was just no game plan for Freeman that didn't include a few wild throws that ended up as luck interceptions. Freeman ran well, threw efficiently, and I'm pretty sure he banged Fox's wife at half time for good measure. I've said before that Freeman has talent. If I can see that, Fox should be able to see that too. Fox is biding his time waiting for the Giants gig to open up. That said, I think the Giants may take the East, meaning Coughlin will keep the job. Have fun in Cleveland Coach Fox.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I spent alot of time wondering aloud before the season why everyone was so high on Stewart. He generally puts up acceptable numbers, but his real value depends on a DeAngelo Williams injury. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, but as long as Carolina has to pass in the second half of every game, you might want a new #2 RB.
Why is Mike Williams still available in 32% of fantasy leagues?
I'm done talking about Kareem Huggins. Therefore, he should finally get the ball next week if he's recovered from his injury. I'm guessing Cadillac goes down week 5.
Speaking of the Pink Cadillac.....49 carries this season....126 yards. That's about 3 yards a carry against a run D that gave up 82 yards to Thomas Jones, and 100+ yards to the Giants. Earnest Graham is looking better and better after catching 5 balls this weekend. That backfield situation isn't as settled as it looks.
The Clausen era begins. Poor Steve Smith. But it could be worse....he could be Dwayne Jarret. If Carolina is so determined to suck this year, why not get some draft picks from Minnesota for your underutilized but talented receiving corp?
Baltimore at Cincinnati
I don't know if this was a hiccup for Baltimore, or if Cincy's that good, but I'm not worried about the Ravens long term prospects. Yes....Flacco was Jamarcus Russel bad, but I'm not putting it all on him. Six non-catches by what's supposed to be your #2 WR will hurt your game-plan, and create a whole bunch of third and longs. There was still a nice TD pass to Mason, and good use of Heap and Rice. I'm confident this will get better with time. The same can be said about Cincy. The ball was spread all over the place, and Benson had a respectable game, but they couldn't punch it in against this Ravens D. After Pittsburgh in week 4, this team has several valuable players.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Jordan Shipley had another solid game, but they only look to him for short yardage. His longest catch was 11 yards. He'll get his fair share of targets, but won't see the endzone very frequently. Don't buy too high on him.
Housh....you're better than that. Next week you have Cleveland, and no excuses. If Housh doesn't do much in week 3, he's better off on your leagues wire than on your bench.
I no longer want to hear about Baltimore using a RBBC. Willis McGahee still sucks, and Ray Rice is still incredible. This is not a committee situation. This is 80% Rice, 20% everyone else.
Todd Heap was second in receptions for Baltimore, including a 19 yarder. It's time to take him seriously, and I like him for week 3.
With Carolina, Cleveland, and Tampa on Deck, it's time to make a move for TO. Teams have to worry about Gresham and Shipley, and need to shift coverage to OchoCinco. Cincy will see a ton of zone D's, and TO has made a career out of shredding them.
KC at Cleveland
Kansas City is like Courtney Love after her glam-makeover. Some aspects are appealing, but overall their just still too dirty to really be attractive. T. Jones with 22 carries? Why? Do you absolutely hate scoring? And Cleveland....I just won't have much to say about them this season.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Bring back Thigpen! Matt Cassel's performance officially proves how overrated Tom Brady is. He is not even worth a #3 QB spot on your roster right now. Unfortunately, that also downgrades Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers, and anyone else that depends on a ball thrown more than 8 yards.
Tony Maoki led the team in yards and receptions. That won't be the last time that happens this season. The TE position is getting ridiculously deep....but he could be a very valuable member of a Carousel.
Josh Cribbs finally got some looks. He will get many, many more as the season progresses. Cleveland will always be trailing, so Cribbs will always be getting looks for long completions.
I was having trouble coming up with a nickname for Jerome Harris and Peyton Hillis, but then I realized they don't deserve one. You can't trade them, and with Baltimore, Cincy, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh on deck....you can't use them. Save the four weeks of heartache and cut them now for someone with actual potential. (Chris Ivory? Anybody?)
Chicago at Dallas
Somewhere around 8pm on Sunday, it was disclosed that Kim Kardashian dumped Miles Austin.
I have no more hero's.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
There are no regularly useful Dallas RB's. I had a very strong feeling that Barber would be their leading rusher for week 2. I did not think that meant 31 total yards.
If the Cowboys kept pressure on Cutler they would have been fine. (Thanks again Wade Phillips.) Expect that to be the last time any team doesn't send 7 guys at him almost every play. Matt Forte is no threat on the ground, so there is nothing that will hold any team back from forcing 4 INT's a game. Cutler will be a great fantasy contributor, but he still has plenty of weeks ahead of him where he'll kill you. Time to sell high.
Maybe De-Kardashianizing the Cowboys locker room will lead to a win. Or maybe they've never beat Houston, and this doesn't seem like the best time to do it. That said....my money is still on them this weekend.
If you combine Witten and Bennet's numbers, you get one productive TE. Witten will put up yards this season, but expect another 2-4 TD's. Conversely, even though he got in the endzone, it's safe to cut Olsen given the TE depth out there right now.
Why is Roy Williams still on the field?
Earl Bennet replacing Aromashodu means great things for Devin Hester. Not for Earl Bennet.
This is your last chance to get Dez Bryant before he completely destroys Houston. The 5' 9" McCain will not be able to cover him on the sidelines. It may also be a nice time to try to pry Romo from the hands of his owner by consistently mentioning his 2 TD's so far. That will change. As far as I'm concerned, that just means he's saving his other 30 TD's for the last 14 games.
Philly at Detroit;
Kolb is still the man. The NFL is still very political. The Eagles can't afford to have Vick as the face of their franchise, and I'm sure there may be some pressure from the top of the NFL to make sure that doesn't happen. But he should have a good post lockout year in 2012 with Cincinnati. Detroit on the other hand is already everybody's favorite "surprise playoff pick" for next season.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I think Detroit's offensive identity is really starting to take shape. Let me ask you.....if you're starting a team from scratch, would you rather have Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Mike Turner, or Jahvid Best, Pettigrew and Calvin Johnson. I'd take the latter......
Speaking of Pettigrew....check out weeks 10-16 for Detroit and tell me he won't be a fantasy playoff factor. Even I thought Burleson may benefit from the Megatron double team, but it looks like Pettigrew is the man.
LeSean McCoy likes turf. Too bad he won't see it again until week 16 at Minny. Jahvid Best also likes turf. He's a nice option at home, and will likely give you top 12 RB stats this year.
Don't lose faith in Avant. He'll get plenty of opportunity with Kolb back in the lineup.
Miami at Minnesota;
Look...I'll say it again...Favre didn't JUST get old. He HAS been old. He just hasn't been as exposed since...well....2008. If Harvin is recovered by next week, he'll be a top option, V-Jax likely joins in week 6 against Dallas, and Sidney Rice is back in week 9. This is buy low time on all four of those guys. Conversely...you've seen everything you're going to see about Miami. Just 15 attempts by Henne, and it took a 50 yard dash for any RB to be relevant. The NFC North will be cruel to them. But heh...at least week 15 and 16 is Buffalo and Detroit.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Shiancoe > Tony Gonzalez. At least until Minny gets some receivers back.
If Peterson gets hurt, don't grab Gerhart. But if Albert Young is still hurt....still avoid Gerhart.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee:
Take away a holding penalty that negates an 85 yard Chris Johnson TD, and this is a very different game. Regardless of who's under center, Tennessee is very dangerous. Vince Young is still the man for Tennessee. At least for the first half of week 3. Part of me thinks the one guy that wants Big Ben to come back the most is actually Charlie Batch.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Week 6 doesn't just mean that fantasy leagues see the return of an additional great option at QB with Big Ben. It also means they get an additional great option at WR with Mike Wallace.
This week proved that Gage and Britt can still be solid fantasy options.....as long as Collins is under center.
After McFadden gave a big performance against Tennessee in week 1, I expected more out of Mendenhall. Be very wary of him if he's your #1 option right now.
Seattle at Denver:
It's like that interception on Seattle's opening drive reminded the entire team that they are supposed to suck. That's the last time I recommend Hasselback, and we're not too far away from the Charlie Whitehurst era. I will say though that the Seattle D is better than it looked, and while Orton may be methodical, the schedule suggests he'll remain productive week in and week out.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Slow your roll on Demaryius Thomas. He's talented, but he's still limited on his routes meaning he'll disappear in more games than he'll produce in.
Eddie Royal is making defenses look stupid. This kid has found his role, and will be productive going forward.
Deon Butler has cut out his spot as Seattle's top option. That really just means Seattle doesn't have a top option. But the diminutive speedster will be a nice compliment to Mike Williams going forward.
A Week 3 loss means Whitehurst in week 5. But I still like Seattle's chances.
Keep an eye on Maroney's health. Moreno isn't impressing anyone right now. I have a feeling Maroney is this years Beanie Wells, getting the heavier load by the end of the season.
Forsett disappeared in the second half, but still led the team in carries, and had 5.5 ypc. My guess is, if it's close he'll play alot. If it's not they'll keep him on the bench. He's going to be a very good start against very bad teams. Luckily he still has 4 more games against AZ and St. Louis.....as well as Oakland and KC on the docket....so his forecast is looking up.
St. Louis at Oakland;
I like Gradkowsi. It just seems fitting to me that the Raiders have a grizzled polish veteran QB back there. In the meantime, St. Louis continues to find new and interesting ways to not score.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I still don't know exactly what to expect out of Clayton, but I want him on my team. It's unlikely that every week his only 2 catches will result in TD's....but I think it's also unlikely he'll only get 2 catches every week. Oakland's pass D is better than you think, so I like him as a solid #2 this year.
Louis Murphy finally hit paydirt, and that won't be the last time. He's Oakland's deep threat, and I love him against weaker D's like St. Louis. Considering Arizona and Houston are next up, he's a nice add this week. He'll give you better, more consistent numbers than DHB.
I have no answer for your Michael Bush problem. I'm heavily invested in him this year, and that's proving to be a bad decision. There's just no way he gets more than 5-8 carries a game on his return without a McFadden injury. I'm just hoping he ends up being the goal line back....but how often will Oakland see the goal line?
Stephen Jackson < 12 other backs.
Danny Amendola is still your chain mover. Make sure to pick him up when you absolutely need 4 points exactly. But a decent option for PPR leagues.
New England v. NYJ
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!! F you Brady. I hope you've seen your last Superbowl. On the upside, your haircut suggests that you have a brilliant acting career ahead of you if they do another Charlie's Angels remake.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I have no answer for Shonn Greene. Hopefully he'll just be well rested for the second half of the season and then go apeshit again. Right now, I have alot more confidence in starting LT than I do Greene, but I'm guessing that will change as the season wears on.
Do not bank on seeing that Mark Sanchez performance again until 2012.
Braylon Edwards got arrested or hurt again or something. Whatever. At least Santonio Holmes has a full time gig when he gets back, but it's always tough to recommend any Jets receiver....even after last Sunday's performance.
BenJarvis Green-Ellis got the bulk of the carries, while rotating series with Taylor. Faulk is now hurt, so the Law Firm is worth a good hard look with Buffalo and Miami up next.
I know Wes Welker is Brady's woobie, but given the amount of targets he gets, the old Welker would have done more with them. Sell high. Now. He came back too soon, and I don't think he'll last 16 games.
We've seen this TE situation before out of NE. I still think Gronkowski gets the goal line work, but Hernandez will have more relevant games. Unfortunately, they will ultimately cancel each others value out. Either can make your week....but you might be better off with a consistent Maoki or Chris Cooley.
Jacksonville at San Diego;
I don't even know what this game told us. It left us with more questions than answers. Rivers had good stats. He only missed 7 times out of 29. He had 3 TD's and broke 300 yards. But he still threw 2 INT's. Is that cause for worry? The only Jags player worth starting was Sims-Walker, who was completely missing from week 1. Who is Jacksonville's QB now? How "minor" is Ryan Mathews injury? Don't get too down on the Jags D. They are very young, and they'll progress as the season goes on. Courtney Greene looked like a monster, but it's tough to play well when turnovers give MJD the chance to be 6th in tackles. (It's true! Google it!)
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Ummm....Buster Davis? Really? What happened to Naanee? I think if you have a reasonably sized corner guarding him....Naanee's going to disappear. Keep that in mind for your weekly matchups.
Tolbert > Mathews. I own Mathews in a league, and I just wish the injury was more severe so I could safely dump him. I don't think he'll be rushed back, and when he comes back how will that ankle treat him? Will he still carry the load? I'm worried. Very worried. But I look like a genius by saying Best will have a better season.
Don't tell me MJD's not hurt. They couldn't get him off the field fast enough when the game was kinda-sorta out of reach. I rarely recommend handcuffing....but if you own MJD, you really need Jennings over a guy like Felix Jones on your bench.
Mike Thomas is pure speed. He hasn't seen the endzone yet, but he's still going to have a hell of a season.
Houston at Washington
Where there any surprises here? Oh...yeah....Kevin Walter. That...and the score was as close as it was. These are two paper thin pass defenses...you would expect Houston to come out on top. But you would expect them to come out on top by 14, not 3. Nice job Washington. Keep your chin up.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Start every QB, WR, and TE you can against Houston and Washington from here forward.
Is there a Texan you don't want to own right now? Kevin Walters....damn. Time to take him seriously. Very, very seriously. At least until Schaub gets hurt. It looks like having Jacoby on the field with him is allowing for matchups with safeties....and he's winning.
Schaub is being hailed as an MVP. His ankle/knee/back/shoulder all disagree.
Arian Foster still got 138 total yards. It's looking very likely he'll be a top 3 RB. You can't key on him...otherwise that passing game will rip you up.
Jacoby Jones finally got into the endzone. Told ya.
Cooley and Santana Moss are turning into every week options very quickly. I would love a Cooley/Pettigrew/Heap/Maoki/A.Gonzales combination somewhere. If you have a tradeable high profile TE, and can get a couple of these guys off the wire....fill a need somewhere else.
Portis YPC = 2.5. Those TD's masked a very, very bad game. Johnson = -7 yards. Again. We're getting closer to Ryan Torain every week.
Giants at Indy
Nice job with the helmet there Jacobs. You just gave NY every reason in the world to continue to ignore you. I never, ever, ever want to hear again that Brady is better than Peyton Manning. His stats weren't other-wordly, but he just tore that defense apart. It was like watching Ron Jeremy direct a porn. Even if he's not the star of the show.....you know the results will excite you. When he retires, I would really, really like him to coach the Cowboys. Or perhaps run for president and fix our economy so I don't have so much time for blogging. Manning I mean....not Jeremy. Giants fans....don't lose hope. You'll still likely win the division. You just got outclassed by a master.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Lost amidst the blowout was how well Eli actually performed. The sacks hurt, and only 50% completions.....but he still got off a couple bombs for TD's under ridiculous pressure. I'm really starting to believe that he's turned the corner, and we can expect 4000 and 26-28 annually. Indy just had his number, and while Bradshaw is good......he's not Arian Foster.
Speaking of Bradshaw....he's now officially a very good #2 RB that should provide bankable points on a weekly basis.
I don't know what to think about Steve Smith....but it doesn't look good for him this year. With Nicks and Manningham taking the deep ball work, he's relegated to a possession role. Still useful, but not what you drafted.
Pierre Garcon is officially irrelevant. Those week 1 drops will haunt him all season. Sorry Garcon....but Manning is only looking at guys that catch balls regularly.
Apparently Addai and Brown can in fact be useful. You'll just never know which one, and never know when.
New Orleans at San Francisco;
So safe to say that San Fran has a decent run defense. Also safe to say that New Orleans has a decent pass defense. But.......short of Frank Gore, nobody was very inspiring, and that may be the theme of these teams going forward.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
You know you're good when 254 yards and 2 TD's on a 75% completion percentage is blase. So is the life of Drew Brees.
Hi Alex....meet Michael. Mr. Crabtree is your best reciever. I know it's been awhile since you've had reason to speak, but now that everyone is healthy, you might want to try running some drills together. If you don't figure it out against KC next week....you're not going to figure it out. In the meantime, if you own Crabtree...Morgan had 6 receptions for 70 yards against New Orleans. If you have some space, grab him now. If he's the primary guy against KC....then he's the primary guy for 2010.
With Reggie Bush hurt, it's time to make Chris Ivory a waiver priority. I don't care how hurt he is. Atlanta is a tough test.....but I like him for week 4 when Carolina comes to town.
Forget Marques Colston against Atlanta. My guess is Lance Moore finally gets his shot, taking the check down TD's that normally go Reggie Bush's way.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Fantasy Football Week 2 Waiver Wire Wonders
So last week didn't work out all that well. Aside from Danny Amendola, you likely cursed my name if you started any of my recommendations. But....in all likelihood....you didn't. You knew better. You understood that most teams weren't going to suddenly change their preseason plans and stray away from their starters in week 1.
But it's week 2 now.....the game has changed. Not because of who will be getting unexpected carries, but because of who is actually owned in your leagues. Guys like Kenny Britt, Bernard Berrian, and Jacoby Jones have become widely available. It's not that they won't be useful, it's just that they are too tough to predict when they will be useful. As the Peyton Hillis' of the world get picked up, the Leon Washingtons' get dropped.
My goal in this space is to give you guys that are owned in less than 35% of leagues that will give you value this week. A few recommendations for each position, so if you lost Ryan Grant, or you are relying on CJ Spiller for a solid #2....and you were too slow on Brandon Jackson or Tampa's Mike Williams, you're searching for a cheap answer. So here is next weeks Peyton Hillis and Mike Williams;
Running Back:
Mike Bell, Philadelphia:
Bell is owned in 6% of all Yahoo leagues. That stands to reason, seeing as he had one carry for 6 yards which was negated by a hold last Sunday. However....the Eagles were behind, and throwing, all game. This week they have Detroit.
Don't be fooled by how effective Detroit was against Chicago's run. It just means Chicago can't run. Yes, that front four is a much improved corp from 2009.....but Chicago's O-Line is not cut out to push back Suh and company. Philly's is. You gotta imagine at some point Philly is going to try to grind out the clock much like Chicago did. That's when Chester Taylor got his carries last week, and that's when Bell will get them this week.
20% of the Philly offense went through McCoy last week while Bell was dealing with a strained toe. Especially in the Red Zone....where he was largely ineffective. Add in the fact that Weaver's no longer there to set up the diminutive McCoy on the goal-line....it's almost like Philly has no choice but to turn to Bell.
Prediction: 7 Carries, 38 yards, 1 TD.
Kareem Huggins: Tampa Bay 7% Ownership
I'm not backing off this guy just yet. Olson admits that they need to mix him in a little more. Carolina got torched by the run in week 1. Don't let Bradshaw's first half fool you....he beat himself. They just don't have the ability to handle a speed guy like Huggins. If Brandon Jacobs can rip off a 22 yard run, and Bradshaw can rip off a 39 yard run.....I would like to see what Huggins can do after a team spends all game going after Cadillac and Earnest Graham.
Prediction: 4 carries, 1 reception, 70 total yards and 1 TD.
Le'Ron McClain: Baltimore Ravens 2% ownership
Who DIDN'T run effectively against the Bengals last week. I'll say it again...without Antwan Odom, that defense has no teeth. McClain got a little over 10% of the touches against the Jets last week, but with McGahee being so monumentally ineffective.....I can see that number getting to 15% easy, with a good deal of goal line work.
Prediction: 5 carries, 1 reception 30 yards, 1 TD
John Kuhn: Green Bay Packers 2% ownership
If Brandon Jackson has shown anything in his career, it's that he can't be depended on as a feature back, and is not at all reliable at the goal line. If Green Bay showed you anything it's that they prefer to run if at all possible. If Buffalo showed you anything it's that they are more than willing to roll out the red carpet for your running backs to excel as long as your #1 receiver doesn't get in the end-zone with more of this "bend don't break" crap. Add it all together......
Predictions: 6 carries, 18 yards, 2 TD's.
Wide Receivers
Jason Avant: 2% ownership.
C'mon guys....2%? Did we watch the same game? You know...everyone loves to talk about breakout third year receivers....but noone ever mentions this guy as a top option. There is maybe no waiver pickup that I am higher on in week 2 than Avant.
In week 1, D. Jackson got all the targets and Maclin got the TD....but Avant was right there in the Middle of both, and got the yards. Avant got more targets than Maclin once Vick got in the game. Vick will be in the game again. Detroit didn't do a great job against Aromoshodu in the slot last week, which is where Avant will be. Detroit will again be trying to stop a pass heavy offense, concentrating on much stronger #1 and #2 receivers, while keeping OLB's at home to contain Vick. The slot should be WIDE open, and Avant has more ability than Aromoshouda. Yes I realize that I've spelled Aromoushoda's name differently three times. Get used to it.
Predictions: 6 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: Atlanta, 1% ownership.
Danny Amendola did a nice job out of the slot against Arizona, and Clayton had a tremendous game. That's with Sam Bradford as a QB. Imagine what a receiver with Matt Ryan could do.
Atlanta will likely run the majority of the game, but AZ did a solid if not great job against Stephen Jackson. Roddy White is way too much of a factor in this offense, so there's isn't too many balls to go around. I'm not saying Douglas will get many targets. But when he does, I think this week he does some great things with them as opposed to being stuffed by a Pittsburgh corner. He's got a real chance to break a big one this week.
Prediction: 3 reception, 45 yards, 1TD.
Josh Cribbs; Cleveland Browns: 28% Ownership
The Browns used Cribbs all over the field last week. KC allowed 100+ yards to Naanee, and did a solid job stopping Mathew Ryan. Mangini has already said he needs to get Cribbs more involved....and he's right. After last weeks loss, I think every stop imagineable will be pulled out. Hell....Cribbs may throw for a TD.
Prediction: 38 yards receiving, 17 yards rushing, 28 yards passing, 2 overall TD's.
Nate Burleson: Detroit; 19% Ownership.
Man....Best just looked...rough last week. I think after a week of film on Detroit, Philly will be more successful putting up points against Detroit. That means like it or not.....Detroit has to throw. Donald Driver had 30 yards and a TD against Philly, and that's when Green Bay was trying to grind the clock out against them. Shaun Hill worries everyone, and will likely throw 80% of all passes in Calvin Johson's direction.... but he was more than willing to look to his #2 WR in his time with San Fran, and I can see this working out for Burleson.
Prediction: 4 catches, 65 yards.
Mike Thomas: Jaguars, 10% owned.
He had 89 yards last week. Granted....it was against Denver....but he had 89 yards last week. Sims-Walker? 0 yards. Yes, it was against Champ Bailey, but this just shows where David Garrard's head is. Throw it to the MOST open guy, and Mike Thomas is a hell of alot faster/quicker/better than Chris Chambers. He'll be open plenty.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD.
Dwayne Jarret, Carolina, 1% ownership:
Randy Moss demonstrated that Cincy can shut down your #1 WR, and Wes Welker showed they can't shut down your #2. No...Matt Moore is no Brady....but he targeted Jarret plenty last week. Carolina will run alot more, but when they do pass, Jarret will be open.
Prediction: 6 grabs, 89 yards, 1 TD.
Tight Ends
Tony Moeki: Kansas City: 1% Ownership.
Drop Mercedes Lewis. Pick up Tony Moeki. Kellen Winslow demostrated that crappy QB's can still throw to their TE's against Cleveland. Moeki's THE redzone receiver for this team. Bank on it.
Prediction: 4 catches, 38 yards, 1TD
Aaron Hernandez: Patriot's: 3% ownership.
I just think the Pats are going to have their hands full this weekend. The Jets D and Cincy aren't on the same field. Sooner or later, the Pats are going to have to throw. Moss will AGAIN be taken out of the game, and I think Welker see's that much more coverage. Plus...you saw the Jets allow Todd Heap behind their defense to keep the Baltimore WR's/RB's in check. That's Todd Heap. Hernandez did a solid job last week, and while he didn't get the TD, he did get the yards.
Prediction: 6 catches, 81 yards.
Quarterbacks:
Matt Hasselback: Seattle Seahawks, 32% ownership
I'm saying it again. Bad pass defense, and Seattle will open up the passing game. If Garrard can hit for 3 TD's, Hasselback will get you at least 2.
260 yards, 2 TD's.
Matt Moore: Carolina Panthers, 10% ownership.
Let's just say that Moore is at least as good as Delholme, with more talent at his disposal.
Predictions: 240 yards, 2 TD's.
But it's week 2 now.....the game has changed. Not because of who will be getting unexpected carries, but because of who is actually owned in your leagues. Guys like Kenny Britt, Bernard Berrian, and Jacoby Jones have become widely available. It's not that they won't be useful, it's just that they are too tough to predict when they will be useful. As the Peyton Hillis' of the world get picked up, the Leon Washingtons' get dropped.
My goal in this space is to give you guys that are owned in less than 35% of leagues that will give you value this week. A few recommendations for each position, so if you lost Ryan Grant, or you are relying on CJ Spiller for a solid #2....and you were too slow on Brandon Jackson or Tampa's Mike Williams, you're searching for a cheap answer. So here is next weeks Peyton Hillis and Mike Williams;
Running Back:
Mike Bell, Philadelphia:
Bell is owned in 6% of all Yahoo leagues. That stands to reason, seeing as he had one carry for 6 yards which was negated by a hold last Sunday. However....the Eagles were behind, and throwing, all game. This week they have Detroit.
Don't be fooled by how effective Detroit was against Chicago's run. It just means Chicago can't run. Yes, that front four is a much improved corp from 2009.....but Chicago's O-Line is not cut out to push back Suh and company. Philly's is. You gotta imagine at some point Philly is going to try to grind out the clock much like Chicago did. That's when Chester Taylor got his carries last week, and that's when Bell will get them this week.
20% of the Philly offense went through McCoy last week while Bell was dealing with a strained toe. Especially in the Red Zone....where he was largely ineffective. Add in the fact that Weaver's no longer there to set up the diminutive McCoy on the goal-line....it's almost like Philly has no choice but to turn to Bell.
Prediction: 7 Carries, 38 yards, 1 TD.
Kareem Huggins: Tampa Bay 7% Ownership
I'm not backing off this guy just yet. Olson admits that they need to mix him in a little more. Carolina got torched by the run in week 1. Don't let Bradshaw's first half fool you....he beat himself. They just don't have the ability to handle a speed guy like Huggins. If Brandon Jacobs can rip off a 22 yard run, and Bradshaw can rip off a 39 yard run.....I would like to see what Huggins can do after a team spends all game going after Cadillac and Earnest Graham.
Prediction: 4 carries, 1 reception, 70 total yards and 1 TD.
Le'Ron McClain: Baltimore Ravens 2% ownership
Who DIDN'T run effectively against the Bengals last week. I'll say it again...without Antwan Odom, that defense has no teeth. McClain got a little over 10% of the touches against the Jets last week, but with McGahee being so monumentally ineffective.....I can see that number getting to 15% easy, with a good deal of goal line work.
Prediction: 5 carries, 1 reception 30 yards, 1 TD
John Kuhn: Green Bay Packers 2% ownership
If Brandon Jackson has shown anything in his career, it's that he can't be depended on as a feature back, and is not at all reliable at the goal line. If Green Bay showed you anything it's that they prefer to run if at all possible. If Buffalo showed you anything it's that they are more than willing to roll out the red carpet for your running backs to excel as long as your #1 receiver doesn't get in the end-zone with more of this "bend don't break" crap. Add it all together......
Predictions: 6 carries, 18 yards, 2 TD's.
Wide Receivers
Jason Avant: 2% ownership.
C'mon guys....2%? Did we watch the same game? You know...everyone loves to talk about breakout third year receivers....but noone ever mentions this guy as a top option. There is maybe no waiver pickup that I am higher on in week 2 than Avant.
In week 1, D. Jackson got all the targets and Maclin got the TD....but Avant was right there in the Middle of both, and got the yards. Avant got more targets than Maclin once Vick got in the game. Vick will be in the game again. Detroit didn't do a great job against Aromoshodu in the slot last week, which is where Avant will be. Detroit will again be trying to stop a pass heavy offense, concentrating on much stronger #1 and #2 receivers, while keeping OLB's at home to contain Vick. The slot should be WIDE open, and Avant has more ability than Aromoshouda. Yes I realize that I've spelled Aromoushoda's name differently three times. Get used to it.
Predictions: 6 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: Atlanta, 1% ownership.
Danny Amendola did a nice job out of the slot against Arizona, and Clayton had a tremendous game. That's with Sam Bradford as a QB. Imagine what a receiver with Matt Ryan could do.
Atlanta will likely run the majority of the game, but AZ did a solid if not great job against Stephen Jackson. Roddy White is way too much of a factor in this offense, so there's isn't too many balls to go around. I'm not saying Douglas will get many targets. But when he does, I think this week he does some great things with them as opposed to being stuffed by a Pittsburgh corner. He's got a real chance to break a big one this week.
Prediction: 3 reception, 45 yards, 1TD.
Josh Cribbs; Cleveland Browns: 28% Ownership
The Browns used Cribbs all over the field last week. KC allowed 100+ yards to Naanee, and did a solid job stopping Mathew Ryan. Mangini has already said he needs to get Cribbs more involved....and he's right. After last weeks loss, I think every stop imagineable will be pulled out. Hell....Cribbs may throw for a TD.
Prediction: 38 yards receiving, 17 yards rushing, 28 yards passing, 2 overall TD's.
Nate Burleson: Detroit; 19% Ownership.
Man....Best just looked...rough last week. I think after a week of film on Detroit, Philly will be more successful putting up points against Detroit. That means like it or not.....Detroit has to throw. Donald Driver had 30 yards and a TD against Philly, and that's when Green Bay was trying to grind the clock out against them. Shaun Hill worries everyone, and will likely throw 80% of all passes in Calvin Johson's direction.... but he was more than willing to look to his #2 WR in his time with San Fran, and I can see this working out for Burleson.
Prediction: 4 catches, 65 yards.
Mike Thomas: Jaguars, 10% owned.
He had 89 yards last week. Granted....it was against Denver....but he had 89 yards last week. Sims-Walker? 0 yards. Yes, it was against Champ Bailey, but this just shows where David Garrard's head is. Throw it to the MOST open guy, and Mike Thomas is a hell of alot faster/quicker/better than Chris Chambers. He'll be open plenty.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD.
Dwayne Jarret, Carolina, 1% ownership:
Randy Moss demonstrated that Cincy can shut down your #1 WR, and Wes Welker showed they can't shut down your #2. No...Matt Moore is no Brady....but he targeted Jarret plenty last week. Carolina will run alot more, but when they do pass, Jarret will be open.
Prediction: 6 grabs, 89 yards, 1 TD.
Tight Ends
Tony Moeki: Kansas City: 1% Ownership.
Drop Mercedes Lewis. Pick up Tony Moeki. Kellen Winslow demostrated that crappy QB's can still throw to their TE's against Cleveland. Moeki's THE redzone receiver for this team. Bank on it.
Prediction: 4 catches, 38 yards, 1TD
Aaron Hernandez: Patriot's: 3% ownership.
I just think the Pats are going to have their hands full this weekend. The Jets D and Cincy aren't on the same field. Sooner or later, the Pats are going to have to throw. Moss will AGAIN be taken out of the game, and I think Welker see's that much more coverage. Plus...you saw the Jets allow Todd Heap behind their defense to keep the Baltimore WR's/RB's in check. That's Todd Heap. Hernandez did a solid job last week, and while he didn't get the TD, he did get the yards.
Prediction: 6 catches, 81 yards.
Quarterbacks:
Matt Hasselback: Seattle Seahawks, 32% ownership
I'm saying it again. Bad pass defense, and Seattle will open up the passing game. If Garrard can hit for 3 TD's, Hasselback will get you at least 2.
260 yards, 2 TD's.
Matt Moore: Carolina Panthers, 10% ownership.
Let's just say that Moore is at least as good as Delholme, with more talent at his disposal.
Predictions: 240 yards, 2 TD's.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Fantasy Football Notebook: Not So Much Shock...Just Awe
The first thing you should all be in awe about is my gut feelings column. Looking back on it.....before any games were played mind you......genius.
That said......my "waiver wire wonders" were way off. Good thing you didn't listen to me. Don't feel bad. I didn't either. The fact is, during week 1 coaches are all too willing to stick with their stars and see what they have. Guys like Lance Ball will take some time to earn their carries. That said, week one wasn't all vanilla. There were some interesting things to put in that notebook.
Minny v. New Orleans:
Shock: Saints Defense.
Minnesota made New Orleans offense look a little worse than it is, and their defense a little better than it is. But even after that tough game I'm expecting a decline on both over the season. For some reason, Minny stopped running.......AP was just getting started. AP owners better not hope this is a trend.
Awe: QB Inefficacy
Here's the deal with Favre......everyone forgets the first 4 weeks of the season in 2009, he was...well....good, not great. By the end of week 4 you were glad you had him as your backup. By the end of week 8 you were trying to trade for him desperately because you put all your fantasy hopes on Jay Cutler. Now I hate Favre, and I know he has a bad ankle, but he's just not going to be that bad. Minny's next two games have Miami and Detroit coming to town before their bye week. They then have a hell like schedule....but you would rather pass against NJ, Dallas, Green Bay and New England than run. He may not be a top 5 QB, but if you drafted him as a starter, don't freak out just yet. You can't trade him for value, so you're pretty much stuck with him. Get a solid backup....Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco may be on the block for cheap after week 1, and they should serve you well over the next couple of weeks until Favre gets his timing.
Drew Brees: Good amount of attempts (36), and a high completion percentage (75%) and an excellent overall QB rating (101). And through all of that.........237 yards, 1 TD. It's not his ability...it's how defenses will play the Saints. Welcome to your 2010 version of Drew Brees. Great QB in real life........but the fantasy numbers won't be as strong as the past 3 years. Trade him now.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
This is not Reggie Bush's breakout year. He's going to do what he always does, and that's not changing. That said, don't be overly sold on Pierre Thomas. Yes....he was a workhorse back, but he wasn't overly impressive, and Ivory was hurt. I still love Ivory as a change of pace back, and a real chance to shine in week 4 against Carolina.
Feel free to cut Bernard Berrian, and try to get Camarillo if you haven't already. Saints WR's will be frustrating to own due to inconsistency. This is no longer a situation where 2-3 guys can still post high numbers. They will take turns doing so, and wreak havoc on your decision making.
Miami at Buffallo:
Shock: Buffallo threw....alot.
The real shock here.............CJ Spiller got nothing, and did little with what he did get. Here's my breakdown of the Chan Gailey era to date:
"I have a couple of solid running backs and an MLB that can tackle when he's healthy. So what I'll do in the draft is simply reinforce those positions instead of getting someone to hold down one of the other 20 positions that are problem areas for my team. Then....after drafting these guys....I'll make them irrelevant in my gameplanning cause I'm Chan Fucking Gailey, and if I wanna pass the ball, I'm gonna pass the damn ball."
So essentially.......there are absolutely no relevant fantasy players on Buffallo. None. Don't even pick up their defense. And I'm sure if you grabbed their kicker as a bye week fill in, he will find a way to make fantasy history by scoring negative points.
Awe: How Bad Miami is going to be.
Not surprised by anything Miami did. After watching a full preseason of Chad Henne, Bill Parcells effectively apologized to Dolphin fans, and said "I want no responsibility for this whatsoever." Sorry Brandon Marshall owners, but things may get better. I apologize if you picked up Hartline after my recommendation last week. 2 drops...0 catches.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Miami had 6 passes dropped. That's a ton. Expect Anthony Fasano to become a very relevant fantasy TE based on the fact he can hold onto the ball. He and Marshall should combine for 90% of all non-running back receptions going forward. As far as Marshall goes...has anyone ever caught 100 balls and not gotten 1000 yards in a season? He may be the first.
Detroit at Chicago:
Shock: The Ref's made it out alive. Nuff said.
Awe: Without Forte's numbers......Cutler's don't look great either.
This is more of a comment on Detroit's defense than Cutler. At this point in the year, Defenses are generally better than offenses that are still trying to find their rhythm. The Bears clearly need more time to get that rhythm, but they did a good job of finding some weak spots and attacking them as the game progressed. This tells me that Cutler will put up better than Kitna numbers, and the WR's will take turns having breakout games. It also tells me that Detroit's D is good enough to give Kolb, and Favre a rough time over the next couple of weeks.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Forte's value will be in the passing game this year. It has less to do with the fact that he didn't run that well against Detroit, and more to do with the fact that he only got 17 carries against them. With Philly, Minny, and Green Bay coming up over the next three weeks......we may see Chester Taylor get his shots against Carolina and Seattle on the ground. This doesn't mean you should grab Taylor....it means that neither will have much value.
Either Chicago's run D is that good....or Best isn't that impressive. I think it's a little bit of column A, little bit of column B. Yeah...I know...2 TD's. But a 1.4 YPC average doesn't bode well for the rookie. He's a big play machine that got boxed in by Chicago. He'll be fine, but his value will be more closely linked to Stafford than Megatron's will be. Either way Johnson will get his looks....it's just how many defenders each of them have to face every game.
Aromashodu will be the most consistent producer for Chicago, so he's your #3 WR. I expect Knox to have value...like against Dallas next week....but it's situational. Bad safety's? Start Knox. Good safety's? Bench him. Good bye-week fill in to have on your roster.
Calvin Johson will be receiving alot of late game TD bomb attempts, and will never brace his fall with the football again. If you drafted him....enjoy. Given how often Detroit ran inside the 20, expect him to be the only Detroit receiver with any value, including the TE's.
Indy v. Houston;
Shock: Houston's completely comfortable running alllllllll day.
It doesn't shock me that Houston won. It doesn't shock me that Foster had a great game. It did shock me as to HOW great a game he had. I know Indy has a crap run D, and Foster is talented.....but with Schaub, Johnson, Jones, and Owens, I expected more passing. Foster just took the reigns and didn't let go. Give Kubiak alot of credit for attacking the opponents weakest point relentlessly. I don't expect that to be every week.... but this offense is legit. That means some weeks, Foster will be huge, and some weeks that pass offense will be huge.
Awe: Indy sucks....except Austin Collie:
I said they wouldn't win the division, but....wow. Completely exposed. I'm sure they game planned for a heavy pass attack, but.....they couldn't stop anything. Peyton Manning did everything a man could do to win. 450 yards on 57 attempts is as much as you can ask for. But that defense was a friggin siv. Good luck with MJD, Moreno, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson, and the NFC East on the schedule.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I know Manning and Collie had a repertoire... but....damn. The guy didn't even give Garcon or Gonzalez a passing glance when they were on the field. Trade Garcon now, and cut Gonzalez.
Jacoby Jones saw his share of end-zone looks. Trade for the big, talented WR now before he starts his 8 TD run. Owen Daniels just dropped in relevance......along with Andre Johnson.
That Houston D wasn't exactly good. Their offense will force teams to air it out. Every QB they face is a prime contender to be the weeks highest scoring fantasy player.
Denver at Jacksonville;
Shock: A QB shootout?
I think Orton and Garrard are safe matchup guys. This changed nothing in my opinion of them. But I will start opposing QB's and WR's with confidence against both squad's. C'mon Jags....you're better than this.
Awe: Really? Really? A QB shootout?
Explanation for the thunder delay.....in a goal line situation, while playing in Florida, Denver did not insert Tim Tebow at QB. When you go against nature like that, it will respond with wrath. But more importantly it shows that both head coaches are just fine using their starting QB's all season, and taking what the opposing defenses give them.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Apparently, both defenses are willing to give the slot receiver plenty of cushion. TE's against Denver, and slot receivers against Jacksonville have become must starts.
No sign of Lance Ball, even with a hurting Moreno and Buckhalter. 75% of the runs went to Moreno. I'm thinking that remains the case until he gets hurt again. He has Seattle and Indy over the next couple weeks....you may want to check on his availability after a 60 yard output. That number should increase.
With a bunch of easy run defenses coming up on the schedule....don't be so quick to grab Eddie Royal. If you have him, now's a great time to dangle him. Even if he racks up some yards between the 20's, his endzone looks will be rare. I say the same for the constantly overtaughted Mercedes Lewis. He has a game or two like this ever year, and then fades away. Trade him now, and if he's on the waiver wire, feel free to save your FAAB money.
Cincy at NE;
Shock AND Awe: Where to begin....NE's pass defense, Welker's knee, Fred Taylor is alive.....just all of it.
I think more than anything....this proves just how valuable Antwan Odom is to the Bengals. Without him as a disruptive pass force/run stopping DE.....the entire defense goes to shit. That allowed Taylor to run, and Brady to pick them apart. Odom will be out for at least 4 games, meaning the Cincy defense is a bad start, and opposing offensive players are good ones. Add the fact that Marvin Lewis stated "ahem....excuse me all NFL defensive coordinator's, especially those on the Patriots that are notorious for taking away our top offensive players....we are going to try to run as much as possible. Please feel free to put 8 guys in the box until we are behind on points." You just had a recipe for disaster.
Fantasy Relevant Notes
I don't know if that NE defense if for real. Once Cincy started to commit to the pass....they didn't do much to stop it. Without those turnovers (more of a result of it being week 1 as opposed to actual defensive talent) we wouldn't be talking about them right now.
That said.....OchoCinco's points were in garbage time. The first half, Shipley was leaned on heavily. Shipley has the best hands on that team, and it looks like Palmer knows it. You may want to give him a strong look starting week 3.
I still think the RB to own in NE is Maroney.
Let's be cautious with Welker. I like the fact that he got 8 grabs. I like the fact they looked for him in the endzone. But the old Wes Welker would have turned those 8 grabs into 100 yards....this new one just got 60. Cincy worked hard to keep Moss out of the game, and did a good job. But that gave Welker alot of space to work with, and he didn't do as much with it as he should have......
NE tight ends are awesome. I love them all. But you want Hernandez, not Gronkowski. One look all day. Yes it was in the endzone....but it shows who Bellicheck trusts more. That said..... you want Jermaine Gresham over either of them. 6 grabs and a TD .... I'm becoming a believer.
A note to Cleveland: I was hoping you could do us all a favor. In week 9, you play the Patriots. Now....you're probably not going to have a great season. There's a chance Mangini is done anyway. Mangini and Belicheck don't really get along. There's some potential here for Belicheck to do his "I'm going to throw relentlessly so people say Tom Brady is one of the best QB's in history, even though his greatest seasons are about stat-padding, and he doesn't have the Manning-like-class to take a knee." If that's the case......could you please, please, please line up 11 guys at the line of scrimmage and spend every down trying to physically end Brady's professional career? Please? We would all love for you to do it. The nation would really get behind you. You may actually increase attendance after that. There's nothing for you to lose, and everything for you to gain.
Carolina v. NYG:
Shock: Not much shocking about this. Maybe that the Panthers were in this game at all for awhile.
This just kind of tells me that maybe NYG defense isn't all that great. They're healthy again....so I'm blaming the new coordinator. I know they won, but it may be a long year in the NFC East for the NY Football Giants. I'm not writing them off....they looked as good as anyone to win the division....but keep an eye on that defense.
Awe: Carolina's D is that bad.
I know they forced a couple of INT's early.......but once Eli found his rhythm....game over.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Nothing you didn't know. Bradshaw is the man. Jacobs can be cut. After bouncing back from 2 INT's, Eli Manning showed why he should have another solid season. Great offensive adjustments allowed Nicks to go buck-wild. Other weeks it will be Manningham. Steve Smith is a possession guy, not a HR guy. Read: 800 yards, 4 TD's. Not what you signed up for.
There is one point of interest.......because that Carlina D is as bad as I thought they would be.....they may have to consistently abandon the run a little bit quicker. I've been waiting for Dwayne Jarrett....this might be the year. Also....it's interesting to note that LaFell was targeted about as much as Steve Smith. It will be interesting to see who Clausen targets when Moore hits the bench in week 7 for good. I've spoken about both before, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jarrett/LaFell showed some fantasy football playoff value.
Atlanta v. Pittsburgh;
Shock: Pittsburgh won.
Matt Ryan! Mike Turner! C'mon buddy.....you're making me look bad here. Short of Roddy White's 100+ yards...this offense was completely shut down.
Awe: That Pitt D is better than I thought.
It's not just that Pitt won without Big Ben...it's how they truly stifled what I believe to be a very good team. Honestly....there was alot of shock here. I know it's the Steelers defense, but.....let's go guys. There were just no bright spots on the Atlanta offense. I refuse to believe this will be a pattern. The entire team is not that bad........which means the Steeler's D really is that good. I think you may be looking at the Division Champs. It will be interesting to see how C. Johnson and company fare next week.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Harry Douglas was targeted more than Tony Gonzalez. That will continue. As an explosive slot receiver, I expect a breakout year from Douglas. Downgrade Gonzalez.
Mendenhall needed overtime to have a productive game. I've said all preseason he's a guy to avoid. He got 22 carries, Redman got 6. Expect that to turn into 15-10 as the season progresses with Redman officially getting goal line duties by week 6. Trade Mendenhall now if you can get early second round value for him.
Trust me....Atlanta is better than this. Bench...well...everyone against the Steelers. I know you have to start your Johnson's and your Rice's....but leave your Benson's, Cadillac's, and anyone else on the bench.
Cleveland v. Tampa Bay:
Shock: No Huggins....anywhere.
Keeping him on the bench is a mistake. And only 75 rushing yards out of Cadillac against Cleveland? 23 in the air? Earnest Graham with 6 carries? Only 30 yards for Mike Williams? None of this makes sense. That just looks like a very conservative coach trying to not make mistakes as opposed to winning the game. My expectations for Tampa are falling. But they're still better than the Panthers.
Awe: Jake Delholme had a reasonable game.
Don't expect that to continue. And don't get overly hyped on Massaquoi just yet. 9 out of 10 times, that TD pass that was thrown gets picked as opposed to perfectly threading the needle.
Fantasy Relevant Notes;
Freeman had 2 runs for 33 yards. His feet may give him value as the season wears on.
I don't know what to make of the Peyton Hillis situation.....but after his fumbles, I don't expect him to be as large a factor going forward. That said....I don't like Harrison all that much anymore either.
Mike Williams still had 5 grabs. Some weeks that will be 30 yards, but I think more often it will be 60. As the offense progresses, he may be Tampa's biggest threat.
Huggins is to good for this kind of treatment. Keep him on your bench. If you can afford to lose your flex RB temporarily, trade Cadillac. 3.4 YPC is just not that impressive. Tampa got lucky against Cleveland thanks to Hillis's inability to hold onto the ball. If they want another win this season, drastic changes will be made, and I think M.Williams and Huggins will be the major beneficiaries.
Oakland at Tennesee
Shock: Vince Young looked pretty good.
Don't put it all on a bad Raider's D. That D is still strong against the pass. Tennesee used the pass to set up the run, and I expect that to continue. There will be more games where Tennesses' Defense actually allows a score here or there, forcing a little more passing from Young. He has value, and so does Nate Washington.
Awe: Darren McFadden?
That's some pretty good overall numbers. Granted...most were in garbage time, but he was effective against Tennessee. Campbell on the other hand was 22 for 37, with 4 sacks. Not a great day. I still think this is a much improved Oakland team.....but they really didn't show it this week.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Outside of Washington, nobody really mattered in the Titan's passing game. That will change, and I like them to rotate who will be the lone weekly beneficiary of Young's attention. Expect them to keep it down to 2 reads depending on the other teams weakness.
Johnson is already off pace for 2500 yards. Sorry Chris, maybe when we go to 18 games.
Campbell....ugh....I just don't know. I still like Zach Miller and Louis Murphy though. I think if Mike Bush was there, the running game would have gotten more attention than it did, and the passing game would have been alot better. Downgrade Bush and McFadden, upgrade Miller and Murphy for week 2.
Green Bay at Philly:
Shock: Mike Vick
Okay....if you don't know he's coming, he will kill your gameplan, but that performance was tasty. However if you do know he's coming.....that will be a different story. If you were Andy Reid...would you let anyone think he may start? No. That makes neither QB a good start for the next couple weeks.
Awe: 31 pass attempts.....32 rushing attempts.
Expect to see that all season out of Green Bay. I don't care who is hurt.....they will run whenever possible. Including next week against the Bills.
Fantasy Related Notes:
That Green Bay pass attack is going to be tricky. Rodgers will just hit whoever's open. I think we'll see alot of stats similar to 2009 out of Green Bay, with the exception of a better ground game. That means alot of very good, not great results.
DeSean Jackson is still hurting. He just couldn't get open, and didn't really display any moves or explosiveness. It may be a couple weeks, and with Vick taking some snaps...
The entire Philly situation just got reeeaaaallllll fuzzy. McCoy will be okay every week, but never great as the only guy that will get more than 9 carries is named Vick. Maclin's about the only guy I think may be a regular start.
The Philly D is a takeaway kinda D that will continually progress as the season goes on, but you can pass on them. The Green Bay D looks like you can pass on them.....again. Adjust lineups accordingly.
AZ at St. Louis:
Shock: Mark Clayton
Is it time for him? Well....maybe. Obviously there was no gameplan for him...but...damn. Either way, make sure every receiver you have against Arizona is in your starting lineup.
Awe: Cardinals Suck. Bad.
If you can't score on St. Louis.....you're just not scoring. Beanie Wells, Schmeenie Wells....I don't care who's hurt...this whole team was irrelevant.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Stephen Jackson still couldn't get into the endzone. Looks like another 4 TD season.
Bradford with 50+ throws? Even after 3 INT's? It looks like the thought in St. Louis is that they understand they won't be that good, but they are going to develop there QB if it kills them. Which it just may. If teams keep stacking 9 in the box (which they will) then the Rams are going to keep throwing, and throwing, and throwing.....regardless of how effective it is. That defense won't protect too many leads, so I expect some good games from that WR corp. As the season progresses....so will their timing.
Mark Clayton got the gawdy numbers, but.....Danny Amendola....not too shabby. As the season goes on, I really like him for redzone looks. He's not big, but he is quick with great hands.
The one St. Louis WR I still can't back is Laurent Robinson. He's nothing but a deep ball threat....which means he'll be maddeningly inconsistent. Sooner or later Gilyard will get on that field, and it will be interesting to see who he steals targets from....but Laurent looks a prime target.
As long as Wells is hurt, you can start Hightower. But once he gets back, all Cardinals are useless. You have to start Fitzgerald...but don't rely on any of the rest of this crew for more than an emergency flex.
San Fran v. Seattle
Shock: Frank Gore's lack of productivity.
It's not like Gore gave you nothing...but......2.2 YPC? If you read my last column, I gave you reasons why I thought that Seattle D was better than you think. But there's not many defenses in the NFL that should be holding Gore to 2.2 YPC. It's not like he didn't get touches....he ran 17 times. His longest was 10 yards. That means the other 16 combined for 28 yards. Yikes. It takes alot for that to happen. Bad offensive planning, an inability to throw, a line that may not be as good as we thought they were supposed to be, and....a potential injury. This is not a buy low opportunity for Gore. This is a warning shot.
Awe: Can a whole team be that overrated?
I mean...I know the answer to that is yes....but walking into this season I don't think there are many guys that didn't think Gore would be a top 10 RB, Davis was going to be a top 3 TE, and Crabtree would be a solid #2 receiver that could be a number 1. You didn't draft Smith to start...but you thought he may have some trade value at least, and could potentially crack the top 12 against that soft schedule.
I get that this was basically a preseason game for Smith and Crabtree. Davis hasn't seen the field much either. It takes some time to develop that timing....but it's not like they didn't play together for the last 5 games of 2009. They should have showed....just...something. Anything. But they didn't.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Mike Williams got the majority of targets for Seattle. He's for real. If he's available, scoop him up. I know Brandon Jackson is the priority, but based on Seattle's schedule, I want Williams more than Lloyd, Clayton, or any other popular Waiver Wire claims this week.
Seattle didn't have alot of time on the field. They ran the ball 23 times, and threw 21. That's not a large sample size. I would add on 7 more tosses and 5 more rushes most games. When you extrapolate those numbers, a few guys look to have reasonable flex value week in and week out.
There is noone I hate more in fantasy football than Julius Jones right now. His 8 carries are inexcusable. I understand the concept of RBBC, but it's not like Jones compliments this group. He just steals carries. I get wanting to keep your guys fresh, but I think Forsett can handle more than 9 or 10 touches a game. That said, Forsett was the only RB to make a catch out of the backfield, and he did the most with his opportunity by far. Carroll will go more with the hot hand, and situational backs. There is no situation for Julius Jones. Ever. As the season goes on, I expect more and more use out of him.
I just can't see Crabtree being that bad all season, but it may be awhile before he has real relevance. Short of week 3 against KC....the first 6 games will be rough on him. Just consider him injured for the first half and prioritize a replacement via trade or waiver......like Seattle's Mike Williams.
Dallas v. Washington
Shock: Dez Bryant's targets.
I know the guy is talented. I know Dallas will throw ALOT this year. I posted both those things previously. But given his attitude and injury, I really didn't see him becoming a factor until the schedule eased up around week 8.
I was way wrong.
12 targets....the most of any Cowboy...in week 1. Now, I don't know if it was part of the strategy seeing as Washington may just not expect the rookie to get that many looks, or if it was the mismatch between him and Buchanan, or if Romo just likes him that much....but that's alot of targets.
Part of me thinks that without Columbo, Witten needs to stay back to block more. It certainly seemed that way against the Skins. That will probably hold true in week 2 against Chicago as well, as reinforcements will be called in to contain Julius Peppers. But if Bryant keeps bringing in tough catches like he did against Washington.....Romo's going to look his way all season. He definitely made some rookie mistakes, but overall he got the job done. If I didn't have Miles Austin in every league right now, every single owner that had him would be getting trade offers from me. I have no problem overpaying a little for him, and if I could get him for a guy like Addai, Ricky Williams, or Cadillac....deal. Expect solid WR#2 numbers out of Bryant this season.
Awe: Your seriously using Larry Johnson?
For those of you that followed my advice and picked up Ryan Torain....take heart. LJ put up all of 9 yards on 3 carries.
Now granted, Portis was clearly the primary ball carrier, and Dallas theoretically has a solid run defense. But something has to change here. Portis didn't look much better getting 3.5 ypc. Washington's next two games are against Houston and St. Louis. If Portis and LJ can't improve on his numbers against them....and they won't....then the Skins will look for answers. Torain's the man to target for weeks 5-17.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Jones and Barber had equal carries, with Choice right behind them. You're depending on TD's and big plays for any of these guys to have a relevant fantasy week. That three headed RB approach Dallas whipped out has promise, but for the actual Cowboys, not your fantasy team. I think Barber is your breakout candidate against Chicago. If he racks up a TD or two....trade him immediately.
I thought the lack of an offensive line would help Witten in the redzone. They would be forced to throw on the goal-line, and he would be a primary target. But Bryant creates mismatches himself. So does Austin. Witten's just more valuable as a blocker, and after the way they lost....well....wouldn't you put another guy or two in to defend Romo? I'll be interested to see how many targets he gets in a sure-to-be shootout against Chicago. If it's not an impressive day......grab Maoki from KC, Fasano from Miami, or Cincy's Gresham, and move Witten while he still has some shine on him. Or even better than those options.....
.......the guy that coached Shannon Sharpe and the QB that made LJ Smith a reasonable fantasy option have joined forces to give Chris Cooley 80 yards off 6 receptions. He was Washington's lead receiver. So much for Fred Davis. I know it's early, but Cooley's looking like a top 10 TE.
If Santana Moss didn't drop a pass early in the 4th quarter....he's well over 100 yards and a TD. He's a nice option for a slew of big games.
Romo got through an entire game without an INT. Yes....he should have had one late in the fourth quarter...but overall he was impressive. I've said it before, and I'll say it again...Romo and Austin are the best QB/WR combo for fantasy purposes you could ask for this year. (Not real life....fantasy purposes.)
Baltimore at Jets
Shock: Tomlinson- 11 carries. Greene- 5. WTF?
Was he hurt? Was Sexy Rexy trying to outsmart the Baltimore D? Did they have to pass that much? Someone explain this to me. No...seriously...I would like someone to comment below or email me and tell me what the hell happened here.
Awe: Baltimore's 70 plays from scrimmage.
That's alot of plays. 38 passing, 35 rushing. I think that's how the Ravens would like to play every game, but Flacco needs to step up the way we all thought he would. Otherwise, those 35 rushes can become 45 real quick. And so much for this RBBC...21 carries still went to Rice, with 6 highly ineffective touches to McGahee.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I gotta believe McGahee's officially done. Look to McClain to start getting goal line looks.
Mark Sanchez is still not a good QB. That means Cotchery, Holmes, and B. Edwards will not be good WR's.
Was that a Todd Heap sighting? 72 yards including a long 35 yard reception. Think what this guy might have done if he didn't spend his career in a body cast.
I know the Jets are a good defense...but I think you can safely cut Mason. Boldin hauled in 110 yards, and while Housh only had 1 reception, it was a big one. There just won't be enough balls to go around until Boldin goes out for 3 games with a shattered femur. Yes Boldin...you are that tough where a shattered femur would only keep you out for 3 games. You are the toughest constantly injured guy I know.
Jets fans......I feel kinda bad for you. It's time for everyone to pile on about how you were never really that good anyway. But to be honest...you were supposed to lose to Baltimore. Baltimore is an excellent team. Honestly.....you played very well against a team that has ALOT of offensive talent. Your defense is for real. You know who's not an excellent team? Cincinatti without Antwan Odom. I'm really looking forward to your game next week. Please feel free to hammer Brady's knee repeatedly. I don't own him in any fantasy leagues, and he's a smug a-hole. There's a reason someone hit him with their car.
San Diego at KC
Shock: 19 Carries, 75 Yards, 1 Fumble.
That was Ryan Mathews stat line. Against the Chiefs. The ones in Kansas City. If they had to pass all night, I would understand....but 19 carries is 19 carries. This isn't the Minnesota Defense....it's Kansas City. Mathews is officially a very strong #2 RB because of the amount of carries he'll receive, but I'm thinking my preseason statement of 1200 yards, and 6-8 TD's may hold up.
Awe: Kansas City Defense?
Overall, Phillips had a solid fantasy game. So did Gates, and Mathews, and Naanee just blew up. But....Phillips still only completed 56% of his passes. I mean he tossed that ball 39 times to get a little under 300 yards.
I don't think it's Phillips. And don't even start with Vincent Jackson comments. I think that given the special teams ability of KC.....and the fact that they held a pretty good offense to 14 points....you may want to consider picking them up if you have some roster space. Especially if you had a late pick of Miami or Arizona for your defense.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Lots of interesting TE's out there after week one. Please, please please stay away from Mercedes Lewis. I've already spoken about Gresham, Cooley, Heap, and anyone from NE, but the guy I personally am targeting in all of my leagues is Maoki. KC didn't throw that much, and they probably never will, but he still led the team in receptions and got a redzone look. He's for real.
Naanee........nice game. He started the year stating that this season would dictate decisions about his future in the NFL. Looking like a bright future. I still like Pat Creighton to become more of a factor, but this won't be Naanee's last relevant game. However most importantly....you now have to pay attention to Naanee, and double up Gates. I'm seeing an increase in Floyd's value being the ultimate result.
It's not like San Diego is going to run that much. Yes....Turner likes to run, and I know they had to pass frequently to catch up....but this is Rivers team. I think Mathews tops out at 25 moderately effective carries a game, and the real points come through the air.
The KC running backs split 11 carries each. Remember in 07 when Marion Barber and Julius Jones split carries? J.Jones was the "starter" but maybe a low-end flex option at best, and Barber was a top 10 option because of his touchdown production and penchant for big games? You see where I'm going here? Next time Charles has a bad game because Jones takes his endzone opportunity, put in that trade offer.
That said......my "waiver wire wonders" were way off. Good thing you didn't listen to me. Don't feel bad. I didn't either. The fact is, during week 1 coaches are all too willing to stick with their stars and see what they have. Guys like Lance Ball will take some time to earn their carries. That said, week one wasn't all vanilla. There were some interesting things to put in that notebook.
Minny v. New Orleans:
Shock: Saints Defense.
Minnesota made New Orleans offense look a little worse than it is, and their defense a little better than it is. But even after that tough game I'm expecting a decline on both over the season. For some reason, Minny stopped running.......AP was just getting started. AP owners better not hope this is a trend.
Awe: QB Inefficacy
Here's the deal with Favre......everyone forgets the first 4 weeks of the season in 2009, he was...well....good, not great. By the end of week 4 you were glad you had him as your backup. By the end of week 8 you were trying to trade for him desperately because you put all your fantasy hopes on Jay Cutler. Now I hate Favre, and I know he has a bad ankle, but he's just not going to be that bad. Minny's next two games have Miami and Detroit coming to town before their bye week. They then have a hell like schedule....but you would rather pass against NJ, Dallas, Green Bay and New England than run. He may not be a top 5 QB, but if you drafted him as a starter, don't freak out just yet. You can't trade him for value, so you're pretty much stuck with him. Get a solid backup....Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco may be on the block for cheap after week 1, and they should serve you well over the next couple of weeks until Favre gets his timing.
Drew Brees: Good amount of attempts (36), and a high completion percentage (75%) and an excellent overall QB rating (101). And through all of that.........237 yards, 1 TD. It's not his ability...it's how defenses will play the Saints. Welcome to your 2010 version of Drew Brees. Great QB in real life........but the fantasy numbers won't be as strong as the past 3 years. Trade him now.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
This is not Reggie Bush's breakout year. He's going to do what he always does, and that's not changing. That said, don't be overly sold on Pierre Thomas. Yes....he was a workhorse back, but he wasn't overly impressive, and Ivory was hurt. I still love Ivory as a change of pace back, and a real chance to shine in week 4 against Carolina.
Feel free to cut Bernard Berrian, and try to get Camarillo if you haven't already. Saints WR's will be frustrating to own due to inconsistency. This is no longer a situation where 2-3 guys can still post high numbers. They will take turns doing so, and wreak havoc on your decision making.
Miami at Buffallo:
Shock: Buffallo threw....alot.
The real shock here.............CJ Spiller got nothing, and did little with what he did get. Here's my breakdown of the Chan Gailey era to date:
"I have a couple of solid running backs and an MLB that can tackle when he's healthy. So what I'll do in the draft is simply reinforce those positions instead of getting someone to hold down one of the other 20 positions that are problem areas for my team. Then....after drafting these guys....I'll make them irrelevant in my gameplanning cause I'm Chan Fucking Gailey, and if I wanna pass the ball, I'm gonna pass the damn ball."
So essentially.......there are absolutely no relevant fantasy players on Buffallo. None. Don't even pick up their defense. And I'm sure if you grabbed their kicker as a bye week fill in, he will find a way to make fantasy history by scoring negative points.
Awe: How Bad Miami is going to be.
Not surprised by anything Miami did. After watching a full preseason of Chad Henne, Bill Parcells effectively apologized to Dolphin fans, and said "I want no responsibility for this whatsoever." Sorry Brandon Marshall owners, but things may get better. I apologize if you picked up Hartline after my recommendation last week. 2 drops...0 catches.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Miami had 6 passes dropped. That's a ton. Expect Anthony Fasano to become a very relevant fantasy TE based on the fact he can hold onto the ball. He and Marshall should combine for 90% of all non-running back receptions going forward. As far as Marshall goes...has anyone ever caught 100 balls and not gotten 1000 yards in a season? He may be the first.
Detroit at Chicago:
Shock: The Ref's made it out alive. Nuff said.
Awe: Without Forte's numbers......Cutler's don't look great either.
This is more of a comment on Detroit's defense than Cutler. At this point in the year, Defenses are generally better than offenses that are still trying to find their rhythm. The Bears clearly need more time to get that rhythm, but they did a good job of finding some weak spots and attacking them as the game progressed. This tells me that Cutler will put up better than Kitna numbers, and the WR's will take turns having breakout games. It also tells me that Detroit's D is good enough to give Kolb, and Favre a rough time over the next couple of weeks.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Forte's value will be in the passing game this year. It has less to do with the fact that he didn't run that well against Detroit, and more to do with the fact that he only got 17 carries against them. With Philly, Minny, and Green Bay coming up over the next three weeks......we may see Chester Taylor get his shots against Carolina and Seattle on the ground. This doesn't mean you should grab Taylor....it means that neither will have much value.
Either Chicago's run D is that good....or Best isn't that impressive. I think it's a little bit of column A, little bit of column B. Yeah...I know...2 TD's. But a 1.4 YPC average doesn't bode well for the rookie. He's a big play machine that got boxed in by Chicago. He'll be fine, but his value will be more closely linked to Stafford than Megatron's will be. Either way Johnson will get his looks....it's just how many defenders each of them have to face every game.
Aromashodu will be the most consistent producer for Chicago, so he's your #3 WR. I expect Knox to have value...like against Dallas next week....but it's situational. Bad safety's? Start Knox. Good safety's? Bench him. Good bye-week fill in to have on your roster.
Calvin Johson will be receiving alot of late game TD bomb attempts, and will never brace his fall with the football again. If you drafted him....enjoy. Given how often Detroit ran inside the 20, expect him to be the only Detroit receiver with any value, including the TE's.
Indy v. Houston;
Shock: Houston's completely comfortable running alllllllll day.
It doesn't shock me that Houston won. It doesn't shock me that Foster had a great game. It did shock me as to HOW great a game he had. I know Indy has a crap run D, and Foster is talented.....but with Schaub, Johnson, Jones, and Owens, I expected more passing. Foster just took the reigns and didn't let go. Give Kubiak alot of credit for attacking the opponents weakest point relentlessly. I don't expect that to be every week.... but this offense is legit. That means some weeks, Foster will be huge, and some weeks that pass offense will be huge.
Awe: Indy sucks....except Austin Collie:
I said they wouldn't win the division, but....wow. Completely exposed. I'm sure they game planned for a heavy pass attack, but.....they couldn't stop anything. Peyton Manning did everything a man could do to win. 450 yards on 57 attempts is as much as you can ask for. But that defense was a friggin siv. Good luck with MJD, Moreno, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson, and the NFC East on the schedule.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I know Manning and Collie had a repertoire... but....damn. The guy didn't even give Garcon or Gonzalez a passing glance when they were on the field. Trade Garcon now, and cut Gonzalez.
Jacoby Jones saw his share of end-zone looks. Trade for the big, talented WR now before he starts his 8 TD run. Owen Daniels just dropped in relevance......along with Andre Johnson.
That Houston D wasn't exactly good. Their offense will force teams to air it out. Every QB they face is a prime contender to be the weeks highest scoring fantasy player.
Denver at Jacksonville;
Shock: A QB shootout?
I think Orton and Garrard are safe matchup guys. This changed nothing in my opinion of them. But I will start opposing QB's and WR's with confidence against both squad's. C'mon Jags....you're better than this.
Awe: Really? Really? A QB shootout?
Explanation for the thunder delay.....in a goal line situation, while playing in Florida, Denver did not insert Tim Tebow at QB. When you go against nature like that, it will respond with wrath. But more importantly it shows that both head coaches are just fine using their starting QB's all season, and taking what the opposing defenses give them.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Apparently, both defenses are willing to give the slot receiver plenty of cushion. TE's against Denver, and slot receivers against Jacksonville have become must starts.
No sign of Lance Ball, even with a hurting Moreno and Buckhalter. 75% of the runs went to Moreno. I'm thinking that remains the case until he gets hurt again. He has Seattle and Indy over the next couple weeks....you may want to check on his availability after a 60 yard output. That number should increase.
With a bunch of easy run defenses coming up on the schedule....don't be so quick to grab Eddie Royal. If you have him, now's a great time to dangle him. Even if he racks up some yards between the 20's, his endzone looks will be rare. I say the same for the constantly overtaughted Mercedes Lewis. He has a game or two like this ever year, and then fades away. Trade him now, and if he's on the waiver wire, feel free to save your FAAB money.
Cincy at NE;
Shock AND Awe: Where to begin....NE's pass defense, Welker's knee, Fred Taylor is alive.....just all of it.
I think more than anything....this proves just how valuable Antwan Odom is to the Bengals. Without him as a disruptive pass force/run stopping DE.....the entire defense goes to shit. That allowed Taylor to run, and Brady to pick them apart. Odom will be out for at least 4 games, meaning the Cincy defense is a bad start, and opposing offensive players are good ones. Add the fact that Marvin Lewis stated "ahem....excuse me all NFL defensive coordinator's, especially those on the Patriots that are notorious for taking away our top offensive players....we are going to try to run as much as possible. Please feel free to put 8 guys in the box until we are behind on points." You just had a recipe for disaster.
Fantasy Relevant Notes
I don't know if that NE defense if for real. Once Cincy started to commit to the pass....they didn't do much to stop it. Without those turnovers (more of a result of it being week 1 as opposed to actual defensive talent) we wouldn't be talking about them right now.
That said.....OchoCinco's points were in garbage time. The first half, Shipley was leaned on heavily. Shipley has the best hands on that team, and it looks like Palmer knows it. You may want to give him a strong look starting week 3.
I still think the RB to own in NE is Maroney.
Let's be cautious with Welker. I like the fact that he got 8 grabs. I like the fact they looked for him in the endzone. But the old Wes Welker would have turned those 8 grabs into 100 yards....this new one just got 60. Cincy worked hard to keep Moss out of the game, and did a good job. But that gave Welker alot of space to work with, and he didn't do as much with it as he should have......
NE tight ends are awesome. I love them all. But you want Hernandez, not Gronkowski. One look all day. Yes it was in the endzone....but it shows who Bellicheck trusts more. That said..... you want Jermaine Gresham over either of them. 6 grabs and a TD .... I'm becoming a believer.
A note to Cleveland: I was hoping you could do us all a favor. In week 9, you play the Patriots. Now....you're probably not going to have a great season. There's a chance Mangini is done anyway. Mangini and Belicheck don't really get along. There's some potential here for Belicheck to do his "I'm going to throw relentlessly so people say Tom Brady is one of the best QB's in history, even though his greatest seasons are about stat-padding, and he doesn't have the Manning-like-class to take a knee." If that's the case......could you please, please, please line up 11 guys at the line of scrimmage and spend every down trying to physically end Brady's professional career? Please? We would all love for you to do it. The nation would really get behind you. You may actually increase attendance after that. There's nothing for you to lose, and everything for you to gain.
Carolina v. NYG:
Shock: Not much shocking about this. Maybe that the Panthers were in this game at all for awhile.
This just kind of tells me that maybe NYG defense isn't all that great. They're healthy again....so I'm blaming the new coordinator. I know they won, but it may be a long year in the NFC East for the NY Football Giants. I'm not writing them off....they looked as good as anyone to win the division....but keep an eye on that defense.
Awe: Carolina's D is that bad.
I know they forced a couple of INT's early.......but once Eli found his rhythm....game over.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Nothing you didn't know. Bradshaw is the man. Jacobs can be cut. After bouncing back from 2 INT's, Eli Manning showed why he should have another solid season. Great offensive adjustments allowed Nicks to go buck-wild. Other weeks it will be Manningham. Steve Smith is a possession guy, not a HR guy. Read: 800 yards, 4 TD's. Not what you signed up for.
There is one point of interest.......because that Carlina D is as bad as I thought they would be.....they may have to consistently abandon the run a little bit quicker. I've been waiting for Dwayne Jarrett....this might be the year. Also....it's interesting to note that LaFell was targeted about as much as Steve Smith. It will be interesting to see who Clausen targets when Moore hits the bench in week 7 for good. I've spoken about both before, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jarrett/LaFell showed some fantasy football playoff value.
Atlanta v. Pittsburgh;
Shock: Pittsburgh won.
Matt Ryan! Mike Turner! C'mon buddy.....you're making me look bad here. Short of Roddy White's 100+ yards...this offense was completely shut down.
Awe: That Pitt D is better than I thought.
It's not just that Pitt won without Big Ben...it's how they truly stifled what I believe to be a very good team. Honestly....there was alot of shock here. I know it's the Steelers defense, but.....let's go guys. There were just no bright spots on the Atlanta offense. I refuse to believe this will be a pattern. The entire team is not that bad........which means the Steeler's D really is that good. I think you may be looking at the Division Champs. It will be interesting to see how C. Johnson and company fare next week.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Harry Douglas was targeted more than Tony Gonzalez. That will continue. As an explosive slot receiver, I expect a breakout year from Douglas. Downgrade Gonzalez.
Mendenhall needed overtime to have a productive game. I've said all preseason he's a guy to avoid. He got 22 carries, Redman got 6. Expect that to turn into 15-10 as the season progresses with Redman officially getting goal line duties by week 6. Trade Mendenhall now if you can get early second round value for him.
Trust me....Atlanta is better than this. Bench...well...everyone against the Steelers. I know you have to start your Johnson's and your Rice's....but leave your Benson's, Cadillac's, and anyone else on the bench.
Cleveland v. Tampa Bay:
Shock: No Huggins....anywhere.
Keeping him on the bench is a mistake. And only 75 rushing yards out of Cadillac against Cleveland? 23 in the air? Earnest Graham with 6 carries? Only 30 yards for Mike Williams? None of this makes sense. That just looks like a very conservative coach trying to not make mistakes as opposed to winning the game. My expectations for Tampa are falling. But they're still better than the Panthers.
Awe: Jake Delholme had a reasonable game.
Don't expect that to continue. And don't get overly hyped on Massaquoi just yet. 9 out of 10 times, that TD pass that was thrown gets picked as opposed to perfectly threading the needle.
Fantasy Relevant Notes;
Freeman had 2 runs for 33 yards. His feet may give him value as the season wears on.
I don't know what to make of the Peyton Hillis situation.....but after his fumbles, I don't expect him to be as large a factor going forward. That said....I don't like Harrison all that much anymore either.
Mike Williams still had 5 grabs. Some weeks that will be 30 yards, but I think more often it will be 60. As the offense progresses, he may be Tampa's biggest threat.
Huggins is to good for this kind of treatment. Keep him on your bench. If you can afford to lose your flex RB temporarily, trade Cadillac. 3.4 YPC is just not that impressive. Tampa got lucky against Cleveland thanks to Hillis's inability to hold onto the ball. If they want another win this season, drastic changes will be made, and I think M.Williams and Huggins will be the major beneficiaries.
Oakland at Tennesee
Shock: Vince Young looked pretty good.
Don't put it all on a bad Raider's D. That D is still strong against the pass. Tennesee used the pass to set up the run, and I expect that to continue. There will be more games where Tennesses' Defense actually allows a score here or there, forcing a little more passing from Young. He has value, and so does Nate Washington.
Awe: Darren McFadden?
That's some pretty good overall numbers. Granted...most were in garbage time, but he was effective against Tennessee. Campbell on the other hand was 22 for 37, with 4 sacks. Not a great day. I still think this is a much improved Oakland team.....but they really didn't show it this week.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Outside of Washington, nobody really mattered in the Titan's passing game. That will change, and I like them to rotate who will be the lone weekly beneficiary of Young's attention. Expect them to keep it down to 2 reads depending on the other teams weakness.
Johnson is already off pace for 2500 yards. Sorry Chris, maybe when we go to 18 games.
Campbell....ugh....I just don't know. I still like Zach Miller and Louis Murphy though. I think if Mike Bush was there, the running game would have gotten more attention than it did, and the passing game would have been alot better. Downgrade Bush and McFadden, upgrade Miller and Murphy for week 2.
Green Bay at Philly:
Shock: Mike Vick
Okay....if you don't know he's coming, he will kill your gameplan, but that performance was tasty. However if you do know he's coming.....that will be a different story. If you were Andy Reid...would you let anyone think he may start? No. That makes neither QB a good start for the next couple weeks.
Awe: 31 pass attempts.....32 rushing attempts.
Expect to see that all season out of Green Bay. I don't care who is hurt.....they will run whenever possible. Including next week against the Bills.
Fantasy Related Notes:
That Green Bay pass attack is going to be tricky. Rodgers will just hit whoever's open. I think we'll see alot of stats similar to 2009 out of Green Bay, with the exception of a better ground game. That means alot of very good, not great results.
DeSean Jackson is still hurting. He just couldn't get open, and didn't really display any moves or explosiveness. It may be a couple weeks, and with Vick taking some snaps...
The entire Philly situation just got reeeaaaallllll fuzzy. McCoy will be okay every week, but never great as the only guy that will get more than 9 carries is named Vick. Maclin's about the only guy I think may be a regular start.
The Philly D is a takeaway kinda D that will continually progress as the season goes on, but you can pass on them. The Green Bay D looks like you can pass on them.....again. Adjust lineups accordingly.
AZ at St. Louis:
Shock: Mark Clayton
Is it time for him? Well....maybe. Obviously there was no gameplan for him...but...damn. Either way, make sure every receiver you have against Arizona is in your starting lineup.
Awe: Cardinals Suck. Bad.
If you can't score on St. Louis.....you're just not scoring. Beanie Wells, Schmeenie Wells....I don't care who's hurt...this whole team was irrelevant.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Stephen Jackson still couldn't get into the endzone. Looks like another 4 TD season.
Bradford with 50+ throws? Even after 3 INT's? It looks like the thought in St. Louis is that they understand they won't be that good, but they are going to develop there QB if it kills them. Which it just may. If teams keep stacking 9 in the box (which they will) then the Rams are going to keep throwing, and throwing, and throwing.....regardless of how effective it is. That defense won't protect too many leads, so I expect some good games from that WR corp. As the season progresses....so will their timing.
Mark Clayton got the gawdy numbers, but.....Danny Amendola....not too shabby. As the season goes on, I really like him for redzone looks. He's not big, but he is quick with great hands.
The one St. Louis WR I still can't back is Laurent Robinson. He's nothing but a deep ball threat....which means he'll be maddeningly inconsistent. Sooner or later Gilyard will get on that field, and it will be interesting to see who he steals targets from....but Laurent looks a prime target.
As long as Wells is hurt, you can start Hightower. But once he gets back, all Cardinals are useless. You have to start Fitzgerald...but don't rely on any of the rest of this crew for more than an emergency flex.
San Fran v. Seattle
Shock: Frank Gore's lack of productivity.
It's not like Gore gave you nothing...but......2.2 YPC? If you read my last column, I gave you reasons why I thought that Seattle D was better than you think. But there's not many defenses in the NFL that should be holding Gore to 2.2 YPC. It's not like he didn't get touches....he ran 17 times. His longest was 10 yards. That means the other 16 combined for 28 yards. Yikes. It takes alot for that to happen. Bad offensive planning, an inability to throw, a line that may not be as good as we thought they were supposed to be, and....a potential injury. This is not a buy low opportunity for Gore. This is a warning shot.
Awe: Can a whole team be that overrated?
I mean...I know the answer to that is yes....but walking into this season I don't think there are many guys that didn't think Gore would be a top 10 RB, Davis was going to be a top 3 TE, and Crabtree would be a solid #2 receiver that could be a number 1. You didn't draft Smith to start...but you thought he may have some trade value at least, and could potentially crack the top 12 against that soft schedule.
I get that this was basically a preseason game for Smith and Crabtree. Davis hasn't seen the field much either. It takes some time to develop that timing....but it's not like they didn't play together for the last 5 games of 2009. They should have showed....just...something. Anything. But they didn't.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Mike Williams got the majority of targets for Seattle. He's for real. If he's available, scoop him up. I know Brandon Jackson is the priority, but based on Seattle's schedule, I want Williams more than Lloyd, Clayton, or any other popular Waiver Wire claims this week.
Seattle didn't have alot of time on the field. They ran the ball 23 times, and threw 21. That's not a large sample size. I would add on 7 more tosses and 5 more rushes most games. When you extrapolate those numbers, a few guys look to have reasonable flex value week in and week out.
There is noone I hate more in fantasy football than Julius Jones right now. His 8 carries are inexcusable. I understand the concept of RBBC, but it's not like Jones compliments this group. He just steals carries. I get wanting to keep your guys fresh, but I think Forsett can handle more than 9 or 10 touches a game. That said, Forsett was the only RB to make a catch out of the backfield, and he did the most with his opportunity by far. Carroll will go more with the hot hand, and situational backs. There is no situation for Julius Jones. Ever. As the season goes on, I expect more and more use out of him.
I just can't see Crabtree being that bad all season, but it may be awhile before he has real relevance. Short of week 3 against KC....the first 6 games will be rough on him. Just consider him injured for the first half and prioritize a replacement via trade or waiver......like Seattle's Mike Williams.
Dallas v. Washington
Shock: Dez Bryant's targets.
I know the guy is talented. I know Dallas will throw ALOT this year. I posted both those things previously. But given his attitude and injury, I really didn't see him becoming a factor until the schedule eased up around week 8.
I was way wrong.
12 targets....the most of any Cowboy...in week 1. Now, I don't know if it was part of the strategy seeing as Washington may just not expect the rookie to get that many looks, or if it was the mismatch between him and Buchanan, or if Romo just likes him that much....but that's alot of targets.
Part of me thinks that without Columbo, Witten needs to stay back to block more. It certainly seemed that way against the Skins. That will probably hold true in week 2 against Chicago as well, as reinforcements will be called in to contain Julius Peppers. But if Bryant keeps bringing in tough catches like he did against Washington.....Romo's going to look his way all season. He definitely made some rookie mistakes, but overall he got the job done. If I didn't have Miles Austin in every league right now, every single owner that had him would be getting trade offers from me. I have no problem overpaying a little for him, and if I could get him for a guy like Addai, Ricky Williams, or Cadillac....deal. Expect solid WR#2 numbers out of Bryant this season.
Awe: Your seriously using Larry Johnson?
For those of you that followed my advice and picked up Ryan Torain....take heart. LJ put up all of 9 yards on 3 carries.
Now granted, Portis was clearly the primary ball carrier, and Dallas theoretically has a solid run defense. But something has to change here. Portis didn't look much better getting 3.5 ypc. Washington's next two games are against Houston and St. Louis. If Portis and LJ can't improve on his numbers against them....and they won't....then the Skins will look for answers. Torain's the man to target for weeks 5-17.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Jones and Barber had equal carries, with Choice right behind them. You're depending on TD's and big plays for any of these guys to have a relevant fantasy week. That three headed RB approach Dallas whipped out has promise, but for the actual Cowboys, not your fantasy team. I think Barber is your breakout candidate against Chicago. If he racks up a TD or two....trade him immediately.
I thought the lack of an offensive line would help Witten in the redzone. They would be forced to throw on the goal-line, and he would be a primary target. But Bryant creates mismatches himself. So does Austin. Witten's just more valuable as a blocker, and after the way they lost....well....wouldn't you put another guy or two in to defend Romo? I'll be interested to see how many targets he gets in a sure-to-be shootout against Chicago. If it's not an impressive day......grab Maoki from KC, Fasano from Miami, or Cincy's Gresham, and move Witten while he still has some shine on him. Or even better than those options.....
.......the guy that coached Shannon Sharpe and the QB that made LJ Smith a reasonable fantasy option have joined forces to give Chris Cooley 80 yards off 6 receptions. He was Washington's lead receiver. So much for Fred Davis. I know it's early, but Cooley's looking like a top 10 TE.
If Santana Moss didn't drop a pass early in the 4th quarter....he's well over 100 yards and a TD. He's a nice option for a slew of big games.
Romo got through an entire game without an INT. Yes....he should have had one late in the fourth quarter...but overall he was impressive. I've said it before, and I'll say it again...Romo and Austin are the best QB/WR combo for fantasy purposes you could ask for this year. (Not real life....fantasy purposes.)
Baltimore at Jets
Shock: Tomlinson- 11 carries. Greene- 5. WTF?
Was he hurt? Was Sexy Rexy trying to outsmart the Baltimore D? Did they have to pass that much? Someone explain this to me. No...seriously...I would like someone to comment below or email me and tell me what the hell happened here.
Awe: Baltimore's 70 plays from scrimmage.
That's alot of plays. 38 passing, 35 rushing. I think that's how the Ravens would like to play every game, but Flacco needs to step up the way we all thought he would. Otherwise, those 35 rushes can become 45 real quick. And so much for this RBBC...21 carries still went to Rice, with 6 highly ineffective touches to McGahee.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I gotta believe McGahee's officially done. Look to McClain to start getting goal line looks.
Mark Sanchez is still not a good QB. That means Cotchery, Holmes, and B. Edwards will not be good WR's.
Was that a Todd Heap sighting? 72 yards including a long 35 yard reception. Think what this guy might have done if he didn't spend his career in a body cast.
I know the Jets are a good defense...but I think you can safely cut Mason. Boldin hauled in 110 yards, and while Housh only had 1 reception, it was a big one. There just won't be enough balls to go around until Boldin goes out for 3 games with a shattered femur. Yes Boldin...you are that tough where a shattered femur would only keep you out for 3 games. You are the toughest constantly injured guy I know.
Jets fans......I feel kinda bad for you. It's time for everyone to pile on about how you were never really that good anyway. But to be honest...you were supposed to lose to Baltimore. Baltimore is an excellent team. Honestly.....you played very well against a team that has ALOT of offensive talent. Your defense is for real. You know who's not an excellent team? Cincinatti without Antwan Odom. I'm really looking forward to your game next week. Please feel free to hammer Brady's knee repeatedly. I don't own him in any fantasy leagues, and he's a smug a-hole. There's a reason someone hit him with their car.
San Diego at KC
Shock: 19 Carries, 75 Yards, 1 Fumble.
That was Ryan Mathews stat line. Against the Chiefs. The ones in Kansas City. If they had to pass all night, I would understand....but 19 carries is 19 carries. This isn't the Minnesota Defense....it's Kansas City. Mathews is officially a very strong #2 RB because of the amount of carries he'll receive, but I'm thinking my preseason statement of 1200 yards, and 6-8 TD's may hold up.
Awe: Kansas City Defense?
Overall, Phillips had a solid fantasy game. So did Gates, and Mathews, and Naanee just blew up. But....Phillips still only completed 56% of his passes. I mean he tossed that ball 39 times to get a little under 300 yards.
I don't think it's Phillips. And don't even start with Vincent Jackson comments. I think that given the special teams ability of KC.....and the fact that they held a pretty good offense to 14 points....you may want to consider picking them up if you have some roster space. Especially if you had a late pick of Miami or Arizona for your defense.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Lots of interesting TE's out there after week one. Please, please please stay away from Mercedes Lewis. I've already spoken about Gresham, Cooley, Heap, and anyone from NE, but the guy I personally am targeting in all of my leagues is Maoki. KC didn't throw that much, and they probably never will, but he still led the team in receptions and got a redzone look. He's for real.
Naanee........nice game. He started the year stating that this season would dictate decisions about his future in the NFL. Looking like a bright future. I still like Pat Creighton to become more of a factor, but this won't be Naanee's last relevant game. However most importantly....you now have to pay attention to Naanee, and double up Gates. I'm seeing an increase in Floyd's value being the ultimate result.
It's not like San Diego is going to run that much. Yes....Turner likes to run, and I know they had to pass frequently to catch up....but this is Rivers team. I think Mathews tops out at 25 moderately effective carries a game, and the real points come through the air.
The KC running backs split 11 carries each. Remember in 07 when Marion Barber and Julius Jones split carries? J.Jones was the "starter" but maybe a low-end flex option at best, and Barber was a top 10 option because of his touchdown production and penchant for big games? You see where I'm going here? Next time Charles has a bad game because Jones takes his endzone opportunity, put in that trade offer.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Fantasy Football Gut Feeling
Oh.... this is getting exciting. I love the early stages of football. I love the crisp September air...the ability to barbecue for the first few weeks of the game even in the what will soon be frigid northeast, having too many beers during the 1pm game but still staying for the 4pm games, the bloated crappy feeling of Monday mornings, and the ability to spout off on what I think will take course over the next few months and watching it unfold in a crowded bar over crappy nachos and Coors Light specials.
Football season finally gets kicked off on Thursday night with Minny facing the Saints. My gut feeling....one of those two teams is going into week 2 with a big "Q" next to their quarterbacks name on the injury report. I have no real reason for this outside of the fact that Favre is already 60 and walking on a bad ankle, and Drew Brees was on the cover of Madden.
This is the X factor of fantasy football. The superstition....the gut feeling. It's about hearing something over the off-season that gave you pause....maybe a little blurb you read about a team got stuck in your subconscious. There's just a bunch of small factoids you've picked up that for some reason unconsciously like or don't like a player.
I offer you my gut feelings about the 2010-11 season. I'll back it up with unsatisfying reason, and you'll walk away questioning whether you should ever read this blog again. But I'm marking my words here, and by week 8 you can look back at my genius and realize you will never win without me.
Gut Feeling #1: The Cowboys are a wild card team...... at best.
Personally I think everyone's favorite SuperBowl pick will fall flat in 2010. It kills me to say this, as I'm a huge Cowboy fan, but there's no denying that Run D has looked weak this preseason. I know it's largely the same group from last year......but it's almost as if last year was their peak. Their ratio for yards to touchdowns is a little off compared to the rest of the league. They were 9th in rushing/receiving yards allowed, but 3rd in TD's allowed. And it's not like the create turnovers. They were 25th in INT's. That doesn't add up. They play "bend don't break", and they were remarkably good at it in 2009, which shows that they were at the top of their game. Which means there's nowhere to go but down. Add in an upsetting Offensive line situation that's already dealing with injuries....most significantly to Columbo....and I just don't think dem' Cowboys will be effective at running the ball, or defending the run. You need to do both very, very well to make it as far as most are saying.
Then....take a look at that schedule....it's just brutal. Absolutely brutal. Completely unforgiving. I think we're looking at a 9-7 team here. However......
Gut Feeling #2: Miles Austin will be the hands down best fantasy WR this year, and Romo will be the #1 QB.
How can you barely make the playoffs, but have a top QB and WR? Ask Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The Cowboys will throw this year. Like...alot. They won't be able to run effectively behind that line, and the defense will be giving up way more points. This team will be relying HEAVILY on the arm and playmaking ability of one Mr. Tony Romo. There will be a ton of pressure, but while Romo's not off banging blonde music starlets, (which is truly why I love him) he's rehearsing that playoff game against the Vikes over, and over, and over in his head. He'll handle it better. He turned a corner last year with his field vision, tossing only 9 INT's. I don't expect him to copy that, (17 INT's sounds about right) but I do like him to increase his yards to a Schaub like 4800 (don't scoff...it's only 25 more yards/game) , and get his TD's back into the low-to-mid-30's.
As far as Austin goes, If you take his stats from week 5 (his first start) on and spread them out over a whole season, he's over 1500 yards and 12 TD's. He was targeted in the redzone 21 times....5 of which at the goal line. He's Romo's new pet. His go to guy. If the Cowboys throw more, he catches more. I don't expect him to reach 1500 yards, but he will be the 2008 version of Larry Fitzgerald with 1400 yards and 12 TD's.
Fitzgerald has a bad QB, A.Johnson will lose looks to Jacoby Jones, Reggie Wayne is only good every other year, and while Moss will likely get close to his 2009 numbers, he'll never have 2007 again. Austin is the man. Hope you drafted him.
Gut Feeling #3: Hotlanta's your NFC Superbowl representative.
Yes...a full season of Turner, the continued development of Matt Ryan, and the addition of Dunta Robinson absolutely positively make this team that much better.
Everyone stands to increase their numbers this year. Slot Matt Ryan in on the backend of the elite for 2009. He's ready. I know Falcons love to run, but their schedule just begs to be passed on. Almost every team they face has a better run D than a pass D. They're not turning into the '07 Pats, but they are looking like the '08 Chargers. Put Ryan down for 4000 yards, and 32 TD's.
Turner's value here is obvious. They will pass more, but it's not like they will abandon the run. I personally thought he was one of the safest round 1 draft picks on the board. His yards per carry actually went UP from his amazing 1700 yard 2008 season. Just imagine what he could do if teams couldn't stuff 11 guys in a box against him. He won't get 378 carries again, but he will get between 275-300. That's still a minimum 1400 yard, 10 TD season.
More passing also gives Roddy White what he's been lacking....consistency. His games are boom or bust to date, but I like him to provide a little more boom and match his career bests with 1300 yards and 11 TD's. Tony Gonzalez was on pace for 1000 yards before his 2009 injury, and I expect him to get their this year. And as far as sleepers go....keep Harry Douglas on your watch list. He's the perfect age to break out, and the slot position that he'll be running out of is perfect for his skill set. He's not Wes Welker. But he is Wes Welker light, and once he gets open...he's gone.
Lastly......the Atlanta D is still on a ton of waiver wires. This is a mistake. They may actually be the most valuable property Atlanta has to offer. That defensive line is over their injuries, meaning they're back to devouring quarterbacks and forcing interceptions. Drop your Dallas D, your New England D, and your Cincinnati D and pick up these guys.
Gut Feeling #4: Jacoby Jones will be Houston's most productive WR.
This is not because I think he's more talented than Johnson. I just don't think Johnson will stay healthy for 16 games. I give him 12....enough for close to 1000 yards, but not enough to be better than Jones' totals. This also means that at some point this season Kevin Walter will be a viable start for a few weeks.
Gut Feeling #5: San Francisco's Defense is not all it's cracked up to be.
I think that offense will be fine. That defense however.....look at their 2009 schedule. Look where they got most of their takeaways. San Fran played very well against very bad teams. The D didn't really hold it's ground against anyone with a decent quarterback. Now...they still play in the NFC West, so it's not like they are going to get torched by Derek Anderson and Charlie Whitehurst....but they may get exploited once teams realize their pressure leaves alot of short passes open. There's alot of West Coast offenses on that schedule. It just doesn't feel right.
Gut Feeling #6: Kevin Kolb will suck more than you think.
I know you can't go by preseason, but....jeesh. That's a crappy preseason. I know you look at last year and see two games with 300+ yards. But don't forget about the 4 INT's that went along with it. He's not this year's Matt Schaub....he's this years John Kitna. I think his first four games will be telling. He has Green Bay, Detroit, Jacksonville and Washington. Now....I think Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Detroit have better defenses than advertised, but if his INT's outweigh his TD's......it may not get better against Atlanta, Tennessee, etc.
Gut Feeling #7: The Colts will not win their division.
That line is hurting. That D was never that good. You may be sensing a theme here in my gut feelings. Yes...it's a passing league, but you still have to be able to control the line of scrimmage. This year, things start falling apart for Mr. Manning and company. Jacksonville and Tennessee are alot tougher this year than they were last year. Houston has Indy's number. They're on the road at Washington, Philly, and the strong Oakland pass defense, and get Dallas, Cincy, San Diego and the NY Giants at home. That's not an easy schedule. Will Manning be a top 10 QB? Yes...absolutely. But I see him closer to 5th than 1st. That's also bad news for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. And really....with all those targets.....will any of them be worth the positions they're being drafted in? And please.....forget about Addai and Brown. They're matchup level flex starters in an offense that doesn't love to run between the 20's. Think more along the lines of Seattle's Forsett/Washington than Miami's Brown/Williams. In fact, while we're on underachieving QB's......
Gut Feeling #8: Drew Brees will NOT be a top 5 QB in 2010.
First reason....Madden cover.
However, to lend some actual credibility to my assertion, allow me to point to 2009. Brees had a 4 year low in attempts....over 100 less than 2007 and 2008. Yet he was the top scoring QB. How? He had an absolutely mindblowingly ridiculous 70.6% completion percentage. That IS a Madden like stat. He also had more TD's with less passes than he's ever recorded. His TD Ratio of 34/11 is...well....it's once in a career kind of stuff. That's a great season for Manning, Elway, or Marino much less Brees. His defense also had 37 takeaways. Now tell me....what's more likely to happen;
1) His defense has another 37 takeaways allowing him to keep throwing, his completion percentage stays at 70%, and his TD/INT ratio stays at the same level;
OR
2) The Saints look at their 2009 success on the ground and keep running, and Brees attempts actually DROP a little because his D doesn't keep giving him the ball at the opponents 20 yard line, and his numbers go back to career norms.
If you said 2, I agree with you. So if we take 500 attempts (still a very healthy amount) and assume that 65% are completed as opposed to 70%, and that the TD/INT ratio goes from 3/1 to Brees' career norm of 2/1, and STILL say his YPP stays the same as 2009......
We are left with 4100, 28, 14. Very good numbers.....but closer to Eli Manning than Peyton.
Gut Feeling #9: The impact NFL team that absolutely NOONE is banking on to win anything in 2010 are the Seattle Seahawks.
The Defense is sneaky good. Why do I say that? Curry and Jackson were misused in last year's D. They should be attacking QB's, not covering the flats. Trufant is healthy. Tatupu and Hawthorne on the field at the same time makes for alot more takeaways. Earl Thomas is the real deal. There's just a good mix of big play guys and good coverage players against a REALLY, REALLY week schedule. This offense will not be so bland either. Hasselbeck will be asked to open it up more......which he is capable of doing. If he isn't, Whitehurst is. There's a reason they got Leon Washington. You should get him on your roster as well. I l-o-v-e LOVE Mike Williams as the big WR story this year. It could be bigger than Fitzgerald's dad being the writer that covers Fitzgerald! And for as bad as that O-line played....that was alot of injuries to overcome, and it's tough to open holes for RB's when EVERYONE knows what play is coming.
I'm not saying they're a superbowl team. I'm just saying they'll matter. Watch for them to be battling Dallas for the Wild-Card spot this year.....and maybe even San Fran for the division
Gut Feeling #10: This is Josh McDaniel's last year in Denver.
They will just suck. Their offense will suck. Their defense will suck. They won't be able to run, throw, catch, or tackle. They just suck. I see 2 wins.....one against KC at home, and one at AZ after they start testing their own rookie QB's. But I think it's highly probable they open the season with 8 straight losses.
Gut Feeling #11: Eric Mangini keeps his job.
Why? The running game is okay. The defense (especially the passing D) is better. But really it's a gut feeling. They get 7-8 wins with KC, Tampa, Carolina, and Buffallo, an upset when NE comes to town, and a job saving 3 game win streak against Cincy, Baltimore, and Pitt in weeks 15, 16, and 17.
Gut Feeling #12: Terrel Owens outscores Chad OchoCinco in fantasy this year.
Nothing more to say about that. It's just going to happen.
Gut Feeling #13: Javid Best will outperform Ryan Mathews.
I don't think Mathews will suck. I think he'll be just fine. Much like he has all preseason, he'll be a solid but not overwhelming performer. I think he'll get 250 carries with a 4 yards/carry average, and pick up 30 receptions for another 200 yards. That's 1200 total yards. But I think that Creighton and Gates will do their fare share of scoring, and Mathews is left with about 8 TD's for 2010. Basically, he's better than 2009 Matt Forte, but about the same as 2010 Matt Forte. That's not what you drafted.
Best on the other hand....Schwartz can't wait to use him. He can't wait to get him passes in the flat. He can't wait to bounce him outside on reverses. He can't wait to use that speed, balance, and slashing ability to run up and down the football in a power set. Best will have alot more big plays than Mathews, and while Pettigrew and Johnson will get goal-line targets, Philips will be asked to toss more than Stafford in that spot. I give Best about the same amount of yards as Mathews, with more TD's.
Gut Feeling #14: Isaac Redman and Chris Ivory are the highest scoring fantasy RB's on their teams.
Here's the thing about Mendenhall....he has alot of talent, but a rough injury history, and he will spend the first 4 games of the season staring at 11 guys on the line EVERY PLAY. By the time Big Ben gets back, and 0-4 Pitt team may be looking for new answers. And the coaches have a HUGE hard-on for Redman. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts seeing a Bettis like workload, running out clocks and taking all the rushing TD's. Mendenhall will be useful, but.......I'm thinking 2006 Bettis>Staley situation.
Ivory's in the same situation. An injury prone Pierre Thomas spends the first three games squaring off against Minny, San Fran, and Atlanta. That's a rough front 3. Sean Peyton goes with the hot hand at RB. With Thomas starting cold....Ivory gets the call, and doesn't give it up.
Gut Feeling #15
There's my gut feelings. Please feel free to disagree by posting some comments below.
Football season finally gets kicked off on Thursday night with Minny facing the Saints. My gut feeling....one of those two teams is going into week 2 with a big "Q" next to their quarterbacks name on the injury report. I have no real reason for this outside of the fact that Favre is already 60 and walking on a bad ankle, and Drew Brees was on the cover of Madden.
This is the X factor of fantasy football. The superstition....the gut feeling. It's about hearing something over the off-season that gave you pause....maybe a little blurb you read about a team got stuck in your subconscious. There's just a bunch of small factoids you've picked up that for some reason unconsciously like or don't like a player.
I offer you my gut feelings about the 2010-11 season. I'll back it up with unsatisfying reason, and you'll walk away questioning whether you should ever read this blog again. But I'm marking my words here, and by week 8 you can look back at my genius and realize you will never win without me.
Gut Feeling #1: The Cowboys are a wild card team...... at best.
Personally I think everyone's favorite SuperBowl pick will fall flat in 2010. It kills me to say this, as I'm a huge Cowboy fan, but there's no denying that Run D has looked weak this preseason. I know it's largely the same group from last year......but it's almost as if last year was their peak. Their ratio for yards to touchdowns is a little off compared to the rest of the league. They were 9th in rushing/receiving yards allowed, but 3rd in TD's allowed. And it's not like the create turnovers. They were 25th in INT's. That doesn't add up. They play "bend don't break", and they were remarkably good at it in 2009, which shows that they were at the top of their game. Which means there's nowhere to go but down. Add in an upsetting Offensive line situation that's already dealing with injuries....most significantly to Columbo....and I just don't think dem' Cowboys will be effective at running the ball, or defending the run. You need to do both very, very well to make it as far as most are saying.
Then....take a look at that schedule....it's just brutal. Absolutely brutal. Completely unforgiving. I think we're looking at a 9-7 team here. However......
Gut Feeling #2: Miles Austin will be the hands down best fantasy WR this year, and Romo will be the #1 QB.
How can you barely make the playoffs, but have a top QB and WR? Ask Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The Cowboys will throw this year. Like...alot. They won't be able to run effectively behind that line, and the defense will be giving up way more points. This team will be relying HEAVILY on the arm and playmaking ability of one Mr. Tony Romo. There will be a ton of pressure, but while Romo's not off banging blonde music starlets, (which is truly why I love him) he's rehearsing that playoff game against the Vikes over, and over, and over in his head. He'll handle it better. He turned a corner last year with his field vision, tossing only 9 INT's. I don't expect him to copy that, (17 INT's sounds about right) but I do like him to increase his yards to a Schaub like 4800 (don't scoff...it's only 25 more yards/game) , and get his TD's back into the low-to-mid-30's.
As far as Austin goes, If you take his stats from week 5 (his first start) on and spread them out over a whole season, he's over 1500 yards and 12 TD's. He was targeted in the redzone 21 times....5 of which at the goal line. He's Romo's new pet. His go to guy. If the Cowboys throw more, he catches more. I don't expect him to reach 1500 yards, but he will be the 2008 version of Larry Fitzgerald with 1400 yards and 12 TD's.
Fitzgerald has a bad QB, A.Johnson will lose looks to Jacoby Jones, Reggie Wayne is only good every other year, and while Moss will likely get close to his 2009 numbers, he'll never have 2007 again. Austin is the man. Hope you drafted him.
Gut Feeling #3: Hotlanta's your NFC Superbowl representative.
Yes...a full season of Turner, the continued development of Matt Ryan, and the addition of Dunta Robinson absolutely positively make this team that much better.
Everyone stands to increase their numbers this year. Slot Matt Ryan in on the backend of the elite for 2009. He's ready. I know Falcons love to run, but their schedule just begs to be passed on. Almost every team they face has a better run D than a pass D. They're not turning into the '07 Pats, but they are looking like the '08 Chargers. Put Ryan down for 4000 yards, and 32 TD's.
Turner's value here is obvious. They will pass more, but it's not like they will abandon the run. I personally thought he was one of the safest round 1 draft picks on the board. His yards per carry actually went UP from his amazing 1700 yard 2008 season. Just imagine what he could do if teams couldn't stuff 11 guys in a box against him. He won't get 378 carries again, but he will get between 275-300. That's still a minimum 1400 yard, 10 TD season.
More passing also gives Roddy White what he's been lacking....consistency. His games are boom or bust to date, but I like him to provide a little more boom and match his career bests with 1300 yards and 11 TD's. Tony Gonzalez was on pace for 1000 yards before his 2009 injury, and I expect him to get their this year. And as far as sleepers go....keep Harry Douglas on your watch list. He's the perfect age to break out, and the slot position that he'll be running out of is perfect for his skill set. He's not Wes Welker. But he is Wes Welker light, and once he gets open...he's gone.
Lastly......the Atlanta D is still on a ton of waiver wires. This is a mistake. They may actually be the most valuable property Atlanta has to offer. That defensive line is over their injuries, meaning they're back to devouring quarterbacks and forcing interceptions. Drop your Dallas D, your New England D, and your Cincinnati D and pick up these guys.
Gut Feeling #4: Jacoby Jones will be Houston's most productive WR.
This is not because I think he's more talented than Johnson. I just don't think Johnson will stay healthy for 16 games. I give him 12....enough for close to 1000 yards, but not enough to be better than Jones' totals. This also means that at some point this season Kevin Walter will be a viable start for a few weeks.
Gut Feeling #5: San Francisco's Defense is not all it's cracked up to be.
I think that offense will be fine. That defense however.....look at their 2009 schedule. Look where they got most of their takeaways. San Fran played very well against very bad teams. The D didn't really hold it's ground against anyone with a decent quarterback. Now...they still play in the NFC West, so it's not like they are going to get torched by Derek Anderson and Charlie Whitehurst....but they may get exploited once teams realize their pressure leaves alot of short passes open. There's alot of West Coast offenses on that schedule. It just doesn't feel right.
Gut Feeling #6: Kevin Kolb will suck more than you think.
I know you can't go by preseason, but....jeesh. That's a crappy preseason. I know you look at last year and see two games with 300+ yards. But don't forget about the 4 INT's that went along with it. He's not this year's Matt Schaub....he's this years John Kitna. I think his first four games will be telling. He has Green Bay, Detroit, Jacksonville and Washington. Now....I think Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Detroit have better defenses than advertised, but if his INT's outweigh his TD's......it may not get better against Atlanta, Tennessee, etc.
Gut Feeling #7: The Colts will not win their division.
That line is hurting. That D was never that good. You may be sensing a theme here in my gut feelings. Yes...it's a passing league, but you still have to be able to control the line of scrimmage. This year, things start falling apart for Mr. Manning and company. Jacksonville and Tennessee are alot tougher this year than they were last year. Houston has Indy's number. They're on the road at Washington, Philly, and the strong Oakland pass defense, and get Dallas, Cincy, San Diego and the NY Giants at home. That's not an easy schedule. Will Manning be a top 10 QB? Yes...absolutely. But I see him closer to 5th than 1st. That's also bad news for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. And really....with all those targets.....will any of them be worth the positions they're being drafted in? And please.....forget about Addai and Brown. They're matchup level flex starters in an offense that doesn't love to run between the 20's. Think more along the lines of Seattle's Forsett/Washington than Miami's Brown/Williams. In fact, while we're on underachieving QB's......
Gut Feeling #8: Drew Brees will NOT be a top 5 QB in 2010.
First reason....Madden cover.
However, to lend some actual credibility to my assertion, allow me to point to 2009. Brees had a 4 year low in attempts....over 100 less than 2007 and 2008. Yet he was the top scoring QB. How? He had an absolutely mindblowingly ridiculous 70.6% completion percentage. That IS a Madden like stat. He also had more TD's with less passes than he's ever recorded. His TD Ratio of 34/11 is...well....it's once in a career kind of stuff. That's a great season for Manning, Elway, or Marino much less Brees. His defense also had 37 takeaways. Now tell me....what's more likely to happen;
1) His defense has another 37 takeaways allowing him to keep throwing, his completion percentage stays at 70%, and his TD/INT ratio stays at the same level;
OR
2) The Saints look at their 2009 success on the ground and keep running, and Brees attempts actually DROP a little because his D doesn't keep giving him the ball at the opponents 20 yard line, and his numbers go back to career norms.
If you said 2, I agree with you. So if we take 500 attempts (still a very healthy amount) and assume that 65% are completed as opposed to 70%, and that the TD/INT ratio goes from 3/1 to Brees' career norm of 2/1, and STILL say his YPP stays the same as 2009......
We are left with 4100, 28, 14. Very good numbers.....but closer to Eli Manning than Peyton.
Gut Feeling #9: The impact NFL team that absolutely NOONE is banking on to win anything in 2010 are the Seattle Seahawks.
The Defense is sneaky good. Why do I say that? Curry and Jackson were misused in last year's D. They should be attacking QB's, not covering the flats. Trufant is healthy. Tatupu and Hawthorne on the field at the same time makes for alot more takeaways. Earl Thomas is the real deal. There's just a good mix of big play guys and good coverage players against a REALLY, REALLY week schedule. This offense will not be so bland either. Hasselbeck will be asked to open it up more......which he is capable of doing. If he isn't, Whitehurst is. There's a reason they got Leon Washington. You should get him on your roster as well. I l-o-v-e LOVE Mike Williams as the big WR story this year. It could be bigger than Fitzgerald's dad being the writer that covers Fitzgerald! And for as bad as that O-line played....that was alot of injuries to overcome, and it's tough to open holes for RB's when EVERYONE knows what play is coming.
I'm not saying they're a superbowl team. I'm just saying they'll matter. Watch for them to be battling Dallas for the Wild-Card spot this year.....and maybe even San Fran for the division
Gut Feeling #10: This is Josh McDaniel's last year in Denver.
They will just suck. Their offense will suck. Their defense will suck. They won't be able to run, throw, catch, or tackle. They just suck. I see 2 wins.....one against KC at home, and one at AZ after they start testing their own rookie QB's. But I think it's highly probable they open the season with 8 straight losses.
Gut Feeling #11: Eric Mangini keeps his job.
Why? The running game is okay. The defense (especially the passing D) is better. But really it's a gut feeling. They get 7-8 wins with KC, Tampa, Carolina, and Buffallo, an upset when NE comes to town, and a job saving 3 game win streak against Cincy, Baltimore, and Pitt in weeks 15, 16, and 17.
Gut Feeling #12: Terrel Owens outscores Chad OchoCinco in fantasy this year.
Nothing more to say about that. It's just going to happen.
Gut Feeling #13: Javid Best will outperform Ryan Mathews.
I don't think Mathews will suck. I think he'll be just fine. Much like he has all preseason, he'll be a solid but not overwhelming performer. I think he'll get 250 carries with a 4 yards/carry average, and pick up 30 receptions for another 200 yards. That's 1200 total yards. But I think that Creighton and Gates will do their fare share of scoring, and Mathews is left with about 8 TD's for 2010. Basically, he's better than 2009 Matt Forte, but about the same as 2010 Matt Forte. That's not what you drafted.
Best on the other hand....Schwartz can't wait to use him. He can't wait to get him passes in the flat. He can't wait to bounce him outside on reverses. He can't wait to use that speed, balance, and slashing ability to run up and down the football in a power set. Best will have alot more big plays than Mathews, and while Pettigrew and Johnson will get goal-line targets, Philips will be asked to toss more than Stafford in that spot. I give Best about the same amount of yards as Mathews, with more TD's.
Gut Feeling #14: Isaac Redman and Chris Ivory are the highest scoring fantasy RB's on their teams.
Here's the thing about Mendenhall....he has alot of talent, but a rough injury history, and he will spend the first 4 games of the season staring at 11 guys on the line EVERY PLAY. By the time Big Ben gets back, and 0-4 Pitt team may be looking for new answers. And the coaches have a HUGE hard-on for Redman. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts seeing a Bettis like workload, running out clocks and taking all the rushing TD's. Mendenhall will be useful, but.......I'm thinking 2006 Bettis>Staley situation.
Ivory's in the same situation. An injury prone Pierre Thomas spends the first three games squaring off against Minny, San Fran, and Atlanta. That's a rough front 3. Sean Peyton goes with the hot hand at RB. With Thomas starting cold....Ivory gets the call, and doesn't give it up.
Gut Feeling #15
There's my gut feelings. Please feel free to disagree by posting some comments below.
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