Fantasy Football Gut Feeling

Oh.... this is getting exciting.  I love the early stages of football.  I love the crisp September air...the ability to barbecue for the first few weeks of the game even in the what will soon be frigid northeast, having too many beers during the 1pm game but still staying for the 4pm games, the bloated crappy feeling of Monday mornings, and the ability to spout off on what I think will take course over the next few months and watching it unfold in a crowded bar over crappy nachos and Coors Light specials.

Football season finally gets kicked off on Thursday night with Minny facing the Saints.  My gut feeling....one of those two teams is going into week 2 with a big "Q" next to their quarterbacks name on the injury report.  I have no real reason for this outside of the fact that Favre is already 60 and walking on a bad ankle, and Drew Brees was on the cover of Madden.

This is the X factor of fantasy football.  The superstition....the gut feeling.  It's about hearing something over the off-season that gave you pause....maybe a little blurb you read about a team got stuck in your subconscious.  There's just a bunch of small factoids you've picked up that for some reason unconsciously like or don't like a player. 

I offer you my gut feelings about the 2010-11 season.  I'll back it up with unsatisfying reason, and you'll walk away questioning whether you should ever read this blog again.  But I'm marking my words here, and by week 8 you can look back at my genius and realize you will never win without me.


Gut Feeling #1:  The Cowboys are a wild card team...... at best.
Personally I think everyone's favorite SuperBowl pick will fall flat in 2010.  It kills me to say this, as I'm a huge Cowboy fan, but there's no denying that Run D has looked weak this preseason.  I know it's largely the same group from last year......but it's almost as if last year was their peak.  Their ratio for yards to touchdowns is a little off compared to the rest of the league.  They were 9th in rushing/receiving yards allowed, but 3rd in TD's allowed.  And it's not like the create turnovers.  They were 25th in INT's.  That doesn't add up.  They play "bend don't break", and they were remarkably good at it in 2009, which shows that they were at the top of their game.  Which means there's nowhere to go but down.  Add in an upsetting Offensive line situation that's already dealing with injuries....most significantly to Columbo....and I just don't think dem' Cowboys will be effective at running the ball, or defending the run.  You need to do both very, very well to make it as far as most are saying.

Then....take a look at that schedule....it's just brutal.  Absolutely brutal.  Completely unforgiving.  I think we're looking at a 9-7 team here.  However......

Gut Feeling #2:  Miles Austin will be the hands down best fantasy WR this year, and Romo will be the #1 QB.

How can you barely make the playoffs, but have a top QB and WR?  Ask Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson.  The Cowboys will throw this year.  Like...alot.  They won't be able to run effectively behind that line, and the defense will be giving up way more points.  This team will be relying HEAVILY on the arm and playmaking ability of one Mr. Tony Romo.  There will be a ton of pressure, but while Romo's not off banging blonde music starlets, (which is truly why I love him) he's rehearsing that playoff game against the Vikes over, and over, and over in his head.  He'll handle it better.  He turned a corner last year with his field vision, tossing only 9 INT's.  I don't expect him to copy that, (17 INT's sounds about right) but I do like him to increase his yards to a Schaub like 4800 (don't scoff...it's only 25 more yards/game) , and get his TD's back into the low-to-mid-30's.  

As far as Austin goes, If you take his stats from week 5 (his first start) on and spread them out over a whole season, he's over 1500 yards and 12 TD's.  He was targeted in the redzone 21 times....5 of which at the goal line.  He's Romo's new pet.  His go to guy.  If the Cowboys throw more, he catches more.  I don't expect him to reach 1500 yards, but he will be the 2008 version of Larry Fitzgerald with 1400 yards and 12 TD's. 

Fitzgerald has a bad QB, A.Johnson will lose looks to Jacoby Jones, Reggie Wayne is only good every other year, and while Moss will likely get close to his 2009 numbers, he'll never have 2007 again.  Austin is the man.  Hope you drafted him.

Gut Feeling #3:  Hotlanta's your NFC Superbowl representative.
Yes...a full season of Turner, the continued development of Matt Ryan, and the addition of Dunta Robinson absolutely positively make this team that much better.

Everyone stands to increase their numbers this year.  Slot Matt Ryan in on the backend of the elite for 2009.  He's ready.  I know Falcons love to run, but their schedule just begs to be passed on.  Almost every team they face has a better run D than a pass D.  They're not turning into the '07 Pats, but they are looking like the '08 Chargers.  Put Ryan down for 4000 yards, and 32 TD's.

Turner's value here is obvious.  They will pass more, but it's not like they will abandon the run.  I personally thought he was one of the safest round 1 draft picks on the board.  His yards per carry actually went UP from his amazing 1700 yard 2008 season.  Just imagine what he could do if teams couldn't stuff 11 guys in a box against him.  He won't get 378 carries again, but he will get between 275-300.  That's still a minimum 1400 yard, 10 TD season. 

More passing also gives Roddy White what he's been lacking....consistency.  His games are boom or bust to date, but I like him to provide a little more boom and match his career bests with 1300 yards and 11 TD's.  Tony Gonzalez was on pace for 1000 yards before his 2009 injury, and I expect him to get their this year.  And as far as sleepers go....keep Harry Douglas on your watch list.  He's the perfect age to break out, and the slot position that he'll be running out of is perfect for his skill set.  He's not Wes Welker.  But he is Wes Welker light, and once he gets open...he's gone.

Lastly......the Atlanta D is still on a ton of waiver wires.  This is a mistake.  They may actually be the most valuable property Atlanta has to offer.  That defensive line is over their injuries, meaning they're back to devouring quarterbacks and forcing interceptions.  Drop your Dallas D, your New England D, and your Cincinnati D and pick up these guys. 

Gut Feeling #4:  Jacoby Jones will be Houston's most productive WR.
This is not because I think he's more talented than Johnson.  I just don't think Johnson will stay healthy for 16 games.  I give him 12....enough for close to 1000 yards, but not enough to be better than Jones' totals.  This also means that at some point this season Kevin Walter will be a viable start for a few weeks.

Gut  Feeling #5:  San Francisco's Defense is not all it's cracked up to be.
I think that offense will be fine.  That defense however.....look at their 2009 schedule.  Look where they got most of their takeaways.  San Fran played very well against very bad teams.  The D didn't really hold it's ground against anyone with a decent quarterback.  Now...they still play in the NFC West, so it's not like they are going to get torched by Derek Anderson and Charlie Whitehurst....but they may get exploited once teams realize their pressure leaves alot of short passes open.  There's alot of West Coast offenses on that schedule. It just doesn't feel right.

Gut Feeling #6:  Kevin Kolb will suck more than you think.
I know you can't go by preseason, but....jeesh.  That's a crappy preseason.  I know you look at last year and see two games with 300+ yards.  But don't forget about the 4 INT's that went along with it.  He's not this year's Matt Schaub....he's this years John Kitna.  I think his first four games will be telling.  He has Green Bay, Detroit, Jacksonville and Washington.  Now....I think Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Detroit have better defenses than advertised, but if his INT's outweigh his TD's......it may not get better against Atlanta, Tennessee, etc.

Gut Feeling #7:  The Colts will not win their division.
That line is hurting.  That D was never that good.  You may be sensing a theme here in my gut feelings.  Yes...it's a passing league, but you still have to be able to control the line of scrimmage.  This year, things start falling apart for Mr. Manning and company.  Jacksonville and Tennessee are alot tougher this year than they were last year.  Houston has Indy's number.  They're on the road at Washington, Philly, and the strong Oakland pass defense, and get Dallas, Cincy, San Diego and the NY Giants at home.  That's not an easy schedule.  Will Manning be a top 10 QB?  Yes...absolutely.  But I see him closer to 5th than 1st.  That's also bad news for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.  And really....with all those targets.....will any of them be worth the positions they're being drafted in?  And please.....forget about Addai and Brown.  They're matchup level flex starters in an offense that doesn't love to run between the 20's.  Think more along the lines of Seattle's Forsett/Washington than Miami's Brown/Williams.  In fact, while we're on underachieving QB's......

Gut Feeling #8: Drew Brees will NOT be a top 5 QB in 2010.
First reason....Madden cover. 

However, to lend some actual credibility to my assertion, allow me to point to 2009.  Brees had a 4 year low in attempts....over 100 less than 2007 and 2008.  Yet he was the top scoring QB.  How?  He had an absolutely mindblowingly ridiculous 70.6% completion percentage.  That IS a Madden like stat.  He also had more TD's with less passes than he's ever recorded.  His TD Ratio of 34/11 is...well....it's once in a career kind of stuff.  That's a great season for Manning, Elway, or Marino much less Brees.  His defense also had 37 takeaways.  Now tell me....what's more likely to happen;

1)  His defense has another 37 takeaways allowing him to keep throwing, his completion percentage stays at 70%, and his TD/INT ratio stays at the same level;

OR

2)  The Saints look at their 2009 success on the ground and keep running, and Brees attempts actually DROP a little because his D doesn't keep giving him the ball at the opponents 20 yard line, and his numbers go back to career norms.

If you said 2, I agree with you.  So if we take 500 attempts (still a very healthy amount) and assume that 65% are completed as opposed to 70%, and that the TD/INT ratio goes from 3/1 to Brees' career norm of 2/1, and STILL say his YPP stays the same as 2009......

We are left with 4100, 28, 14.  Very good numbers.....but closer to Eli Manning than Peyton.

Gut Feeling #9:  The impact NFL team that absolutely NOONE is banking on to win anything in 2010 are the Seattle Seahawks.
The Defense is sneaky good.  Why do I say that?  Curry and Jackson were misused in last year's D.  They should be attacking QB's, not covering the flats.  Trufant is healthy.  Tatupu and Hawthorne on the field at the same time makes for alot more takeaways.  Earl Thomas is the real deal.  There's just a good mix of big play guys and good coverage players against a REALLY, REALLY week schedule.  This offense will not be so bland either.  Hasselbeck will be asked to open it up more......which he is capable of doing.  If he isn't, Whitehurst is.  There's a reason they got Leon Washington.  You should get him on your roster as well.  I l-o-v-e LOVE Mike Williams as the big WR story this year.  It could be bigger than Fitzgerald's dad being the writer that covers Fitzgerald!  And for as bad as that O-line played....that was alot of injuries to overcome, and it's tough to open holes for RB's when EVERYONE knows what play is coming. 

I'm not saying they're a superbowl team.  I'm just saying they'll matter.  Watch for them to be battling Dallas for the Wild-Card spot this year.....and maybe even San Fran for the division

Gut Feeling #10:  This is Josh McDaniel's last year in Denver.
They will just suck.  Their offense will suck.  Their defense will suck.  They won't be able to run, throw, catch, or tackle.  They just suck.  I see 2 wins.....one against KC at home, and one at AZ after they start testing their own rookie QB's.  But I think it's highly probable they open the season with 8 straight losses.


Gut Feeling #11:  Eric Mangini keeps his job.

Why?  The running game is okay.  The defense (especially the passing D) is better.  But really it's a gut feeling.  They get 7-8 wins with KC, Tampa, Carolina, and Buffallo, an upset when NE comes to town, and a job saving 3 game win streak against Cincy, Baltimore, and Pitt in weeks 15, 16, and 17.


Gut Feeling #12:  Terrel Owens outscores Chad OchoCinco in fantasy this year.
Nothing more to say about that.  It's just going to happen.


Gut Feeling #13:  Javid Best will outperform Ryan Mathews.
I don't think Mathews will suck.  I think he'll be just fine.  Much like he has all preseason, he'll be a solid but not overwhelming performer.  I think he'll get 250 carries with a 4 yards/carry average, and pick up 30 receptions for another 200 yards.  That's 1200 total yards.  But I think that Creighton and Gates will do their fare share of scoring, and Mathews is left with about 8 TD's for 2010.  Basically, he's better than 2009 Matt Forte, but about the same as 2010 Matt Forte.  That's not what you drafted.

Best on the other hand....Schwartz can't wait to use him.  He can't wait to get him passes in the flat.  He can't wait to bounce him outside on reverses.  He can't wait to use that speed, balance, and slashing ability to run up and down the football in a power set.  Best will have alot more big plays than Mathews, and while Pettigrew and Johnson will get goal-line targets, Philips will be asked to toss more than Stafford in that spot.  I give Best about the same amount of yards as Mathews, with more TD's.

Gut Feeling #14:  Isaac Redman and Chris Ivory are the highest scoring fantasy RB's on their teams.

Here's the thing about Mendenhall....he has alot of talent, but a rough injury history, and he will spend the first 4 games of the season staring at 11 guys on the line EVERY PLAY.  By the time Big Ben gets back, and 0-4 Pitt team may be looking for new answers.  And the coaches have a HUGE hard-on for Redman.  I wouldn't be surprised if he starts seeing a Bettis like workload, running out clocks and taking all the rushing TD's.  Mendenhall will be useful, but.......I'm thinking 2006 Bettis>Staley situation.

Ivory's in the same situation.  An injury prone Pierre Thomas spends the first three games squaring off against Minny, San Fran, and Atlanta.  That's a rough front 3.  Sean Peyton goes with the hot hand at RB.  With Thomas starting cold....Ivory gets the call, and doesn't give it up.

Gut Feeling #15

There's my gut feelings.  Please feel free to disagree by posting some comments below.