Soooo......you drafted Sidney Rice in your early August draft. Now you have a hole at WR. Or maybe you were counting on Michael Bush in that number two slot. Maybe you just have a really bad match-up that you know will hurt you, but it's only week 1 right? You've been doing a little tinkering here and there, and you've filled out the back of your rosters with one of the newly hyped Mike Williams', Sam Bradford, or Jermaine Gresham, So why not give the guys you drafted a chance?
Here's why....because you don't want to lose.
Week 1 is an exciting week yet perplexing week for fantasy team owners. You can't wait to see your team in action. Will your sleepers start off hot? Are you going to regret passing on Jamaal Charles to grab DeSean Jackson? So many questions are about to get answered. On top of that, you haven't seen a defense yet. You're going by 2009 team rankings....not 2010, because there's no body of work to examine. In fact, you haven't seen ANY of your players in a real game situation. You're not thinking of using the waiver wire right now, because...well....you picked the guys you did for a reason, and you would like to give them a chance.
Don't give them a chance. Cut them. It's time to take a very strong look at your team, and think about who's going to be on waivers by week 4 anyway when you're TE has a bye. Cut that guy, bench your bad matchup, and pick up one of these players. Then....when all the owners log on after Sunday's 1pm games and curse you for already grabbing them before the games even started, while respecting your genius, you can be contemplating which sucker to drop them on in a trade.
Week 1 RB Waiver Pickups:
Ryan Torain, Washington;
I'm a diehard Cowboys fan, so it kills me to say this, but....Dallas is going to lose this game, and Torain's going to be a big reason for it.
Look....I'm no Mike Shanahan, but here's what I've seen so far out of Dallas:
1) Anyone watching that playoff game knows you need to blitz the crap out of Romo.
2) Romo is still a two read QB.
3) That offensive line is hurting. Badly. And dem' Cowboys have been miserable on the ground this preseason. I expect that to continue for awhile.
4) Arian Foster tore them to shreds on the ground. In fact....most RB's short of Ryan Mathews have done a pretty good job against the Cowboys this season. I hate to say this, but they might be missing some of the "experienced" linebacking corp from 2009 that they let go.
Here's what I know about Washington;
1) Their defense is improved.
2) Their coaching is improved.
3) They've listed L. Johnson as the #2 RB on the depth chart.
4) They barely ran the ball in their last two preseason games.
Now take into account that Shanahan is full of shit. He's the kind of coach that looks to reveal as little as possible about his gameplan. Hell....he offers blatant misdirection. If I'm him, I'm putting 2 guys on Miles, 1 on Witten, and blitzing 8 guys every single defensive play. I'm then using two backs that can pass block (which Larry Johnson can't) to run up and down the field, and pickup a few receptions from McNabb. Torain will get his share of carries/receptions, and he'll be able to do something with them. He's not especially fast or quick, but he can find and hit a hole like Peter North on a coke binge. There will be a couple of 2 yard bursts...but when he breaks that long one you'll be glad you started him.
Final numbers: 9 carries, 2 receptions, 110 total yards, 2 TD's.
Lance Ball, Denver
On the negative side....There is little doubt in my mind that Denver will be the NFL's worst team in 2010. The Defense has lost their best player, and more importantly Mike Nolan has moved on to teams that aren't spending every waking second trying to make roster moves to hasten the inevitable implosion. Their coach is too smart for his own good, and needs to stop playing GM. To make matters worse, they draw the revamped defense of the Jags, who will be a hell of alot better stopping the run this year than last year.
But there is some bright spots here. There are some guys on this roster that would normally have little fantasy relevance whatsoever. But because the team sucks so bad, guys like Lance Ball may actually be a serviceable matchup.
McDaniels draws from the New England "hit em where they're weak" playbook. In 2009, Jacksonville had a crap run defense. It's relying on rookies to shore it up. Those rookies will do exactly that....this will be a very good defense in 2010. But for week 1.....McDaniels will try to run, run, run the ball.
Lendale White is out for the season. Buckhalter is banged up (as usual), and Fargas is cut. Moreno is just starting to come back off a hamstring injury, which means he can't cut properly. A bad hamstring pull takes at least 8 weeks to heal with complete rest. It's not eight weeks yet.
By process of elimination....Lance Ball will get his share of carries this week.
Ball isn't a large back. At 5-9, 215 he's no goal line threat. But during his time with Indy, he did carry the rock 13 times for 83 yards, and displayed decent hands. He's worked on improving his pass blocking (which was his major negative for the Colts) and absolutely ran over the Steeler's this pre-season. He's playing like a guy that really wants a job, and that's good news for week 1.
Final Stats: 15 carries, 3 receptions, 68 yards, 1 TD.
Christopher Ivory, New Orleans.
I can't believe this guys not getting more press. He's built like Mike Bell. He runs like Mike Bell. He IS Mike Bell in this offense, except he's a better receiver. You know all those carries that Mike Bell left behind that are supposed to go to Pierre and Reggie? They are going to Ivory. Against the Minny run D, they will mostly be in the endzone. Don't believe me? Watch this, and then tell me I'm wrong.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81a115cb/Saints-Ivory-scores-spectacular-76-yard-TD
Final Stats: 6 carries, 2 receptions, 32 yards, 2 TD's.
Kareem Huggins; Tampa Bay
You have a guy with game changing speed, backing up one of the most fragile RB's in the league, with an injured starting QB, against one of the worst run D's in the league. I've spoken about Huggins before. I fully expect him to be the most sought after free agent once Sunday's games are over. Save your FAAB money, and pick him up now.
Final Stats: 10 carries, 4 receptions, 128 yards, 1 TD.
Week 1 Wide Receivers:
Sam Hurd, Dallas;
I didn't say Dallas wouldn't score at all. I did say Witten and Austin would be covered. Bank on this game starting with a long attempt against a questionable safety, landing in the hands of Sam Hurd as he will be open and this is the only kind of pass he can catch, and him taking it to the house.
Final Stats: 2 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD.
Danny Amendola, St. Louis;
He's formed a great chemistry with Bradford over this preseason, and is against an over-rated Arizona Pass D. Even if Bradford only throws 15 times, 10 of them will be in this kids direction.
Final Stats: 8 receptions, 89 yards.
Brian Hartline, Miami
Buffalo's secondary isn't fast enough to catch up with this kid. At some point, they'll let Henne toss one deep for fun. It's going to Hartline.
Final Stats: 4 receptions, 93 yards, 1 TD.
Week 1 Waiver Wire Quarterbacks;
Matt Hasselback;
List of QB's with a higher ownership percentage that this former all-pro;
Matt Cassel
Sam Bradford
Jason Campbell
Big Ben Roethlesburger.
C'mon guys....someone pick this guy up. He's one of the least owned QB's out there, with an amazingly soft schedule, that starts week 1 against a Niners club that is sure to force the pass in the second half. If Kevin Kolb is your starter, you will be better off here than watching him throw 3 INT's against Green Bay.
Final stats: 24 for 36, 287 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
Matt Stafford:
There are a host of QB's you should consider sitting in lieu of Stafford....first and foremost the guy across the field from him. The Lions D may not be first class, but it's enough to force a few bad throws from Cutler. Stafford on the other hand gets to face a banged up Chicago D that will be busy trying to stop the run. Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best are enough reasons to think he'll put up some solid numbers in week 1.
Final Stats: 328 yards, 2 TD's.
Just a comment on Chris Ivory;
ReplyDeleteHis knee injury probably won't completely keep him out of the game against Minnesota. However, he's still grappling with it, so I don't see him getting as many carries on week 1 as I thought. He's still however a good long term pick-up, and should be startable/tradeable by the time the bye weeks hit.