The first thing you should all be in awe about is my gut feelings column. Looking back on it.....before any games were played mind you......genius.
That said......my "waiver wire wonders" were way off. Good thing you didn't listen to me. Don't feel bad. I didn't either. The fact is, during week 1 coaches are all too willing to stick with their stars and see what they have. Guys like Lance Ball will take some time to earn their carries. That said, week one wasn't all vanilla. There were some interesting things to put in that notebook.
Minny v. New Orleans:
Shock: Saints Defense.
Minnesota made New Orleans offense look a little worse than it is, and their defense a little better than it is. But even after that tough game I'm expecting a decline on both over the season. For some reason, Minny stopped running.......AP was just getting started. AP owners better not hope this is a trend.
Awe: QB Inefficacy
Here's the deal with Favre......everyone forgets the first 4 weeks of the season in 2009, he was...well....good, not great. By the end of week 4 you were glad you had him as your backup. By the end of week 8 you were trying to trade for him desperately because you put all your fantasy hopes on Jay Cutler. Now I hate Favre, and I know he has a bad ankle, but he's just not going to be that bad. Minny's next two games have Miami and Detroit coming to town before their bye week. They then have a hell like schedule....but you would rather pass against NJ, Dallas, Green Bay and New England than run. He may not be a top 5 QB, but if you drafted him as a starter, don't freak out just yet. You can't trade him for value, so you're pretty much stuck with him. Get a solid backup....Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco may be on the block for cheap after week 1, and they should serve you well over the next couple of weeks until Favre gets his timing.
Drew Brees: Good amount of attempts (36), and a high completion percentage (75%) and an excellent overall QB rating (101). And through all of that.........237 yards, 1 TD. It's not his ability...it's how defenses will play the Saints. Welcome to your 2010 version of Drew Brees. Great QB in real life........but the fantasy numbers won't be as strong as the past 3 years. Trade him now.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
This is not Reggie Bush's breakout year. He's going to do what he always does, and that's not changing. That said, don't be overly sold on Pierre Thomas. Yes....he was a workhorse back, but he wasn't overly impressive, and Ivory was hurt. I still love Ivory as a change of pace back, and a real chance to shine in week 4 against Carolina.
Feel free to cut Bernard Berrian, and try to get Camarillo if you haven't already. Saints WR's will be frustrating to own due to inconsistency. This is no longer a situation where 2-3 guys can still post high numbers. They will take turns doing so, and wreak havoc on your decision making.
Miami at Buffallo:
Shock: Buffallo threw....alot.
The real shock here.............CJ Spiller got nothing, and did little with what he did get. Here's my breakdown of the Chan Gailey era to date:
"I have a couple of solid running backs and an MLB that can tackle when he's healthy. So what I'll do in the draft is simply reinforce those positions instead of getting someone to hold down one of the other 20 positions that are problem areas for my team. Then....after drafting these guys....I'll make them irrelevant in my gameplanning cause I'm Chan Fucking Gailey, and if I wanna pass the ball, I'm gonna pass the damn ball."
So essentially.......there are absolutely no relevant fantasy players on Buffallo. None. Don't even pick up their defense. And I'm sure if you grabbed their kicker as a bye week fill in, he will find a way to make fantasy history by scoring negative points.
Awe: How Bad Miami is going to be.
Not surprised by anything Miami did. After watching a full preseason of Chad Henne, Bill Parcells effectively apologized to Dolphin fans, and said "I want no responsibility for this whatsoever." Sorry Brandon Marshall owners, but things may get better. I apologize if you picked up Hartline after my recommendation last week. 2 drops...0 catches.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Miami had 6 passes dropped. That's a ton. Expect Anthony Fasano to become a very relevant fantasy TE based on the fact he can hold onto the ball. He and Marshall should combine for 90% of all non-running back receptions going forward. As far as Marshall goes...has anyone ever caught 100 balls and not gotten 1000 yards in a season? He may be the first.
Detroit at Chicago:
Shock: The Ref's made it out alive. Nuff said.
Awe: Without Forte's numbers......Cutler's don't look great either.
This is more of a comment on Detroit's defense than Cutler. At this point in the year, Defenses are generally better than offenses that are still trying to find their rhythm. The Bears clearly need more time to get that rhythm, but they did a good job of finding some weak spots and attacking them as the game progressed. This tells me that Cutler will put up better than Kitna numbers, and the WR's will take turns having breakout games. It also tells me that Detroit's D is good enough to give Kolb, and Favre a rough time over the next couple of weeks.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Forte's value will be in the passing game this year. It has less to do with the fact that he didn't run that well against Detroit, and more to do with the fact that he only got 17 carries against them. With Philly, Minny, and Green Bay coming up over the next three weeks......we may see Chester Taylor get his shots against Carolina and Seattle on the ground. This doesn't mean you should grab Taylor....it means that neither will have much value.
Either Chicago's run D is that good....or Best isn't that impressive. I think it's a little bit of column A, little bit of column B. Yeah...I know...2 TD's. But a 1.4 YPC average doesn't bode well for the rookie. He's a big play machine that got boxed in by Chicago. He'll be fine, but his value will be more closely linked to Stafford than Megatron's will be. Either way Johnson will get his looks....it's just how many defenders each of them have to face every game.
Aromashodu will be the most consistent producer for Chicago, so he's your #3 WR. I expect Knox to have value...like against Dallas next week....but it's situational. Bad safety's? Start Knox. Good safety's? Bench him. Good bye-week fill in to have on your roster.
Calvin Johson will be receiving alot of late game TD bomb attempts, and will never brace his fall with the football again. If you drafted him....enjoy. Given how often Detroit ran inside the 20, expect him to be the only Detroit receiver with any value, including the TE's.
Indy v. Houston;
Shock: Houston's completely comfortable running alllllllll day.
It doesn't shock me that Houston won. It doesn't shock me that Foster had a great game. It did shock me as to HOW great a game he had. I know Indy has a crap run D, and Foster is talented.....but with Schaub, Johnson, Jones, and Owens, I expected more passing. Foster just took the reigns and didn't let go. Give Kubiak alot of credit for attacking the opponents weakest point relentlessly. I don't expect that to be every week.... but this offense is legit. That means some weeks, Foster will be huge, and some weeks that pass offense will be huge.
Awe: Indy sucks....except Austin Collie:
I said they wouldn't win the division, but....wow. Completely exposed. I'm sure they game planned for a heavy pass attack, but.....they couldn't stop anything. Peyton Manning did everything a man could do to win. 450 yards on 57 attempts is as much as you can ask for. But that defense was a friggin siv. Good luck with MJD, Moreno, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson, and the NFC East on the schedule.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I know Manning and Collie had a repertoire... but....damn. The guy didn't even give Garcon or Gonzalez a passing glance when they were on the field. Trade Garcon now, and cut Gonzalez.
Jacoby Jones saw his share of end-zone looks. Trade for the big, talented WR now before he starts his 8 TD run. Owen Daniels just dropped in relevance......along with Andre Johnson.
That Houston D wasn't exactly good. Their offense will force teams to air it out. Every QB they face is a prime contender to be the weeks highest scoring fantasy player.
Denver at Jacksonville;
Shock: A QB shootout?
I think Orton and Garrard are safe matchup guys. This changed nothing in my opinion of them. But I will start opposing QB's and WR's with confidence against both squad's. C'mon Jags....you're better than this.
Awe: Really? Really? A QB shootout?
Explanation for the thunder delay.....in a goal line situation, while playing in Florida, Denver did not insert Tim Tebow at QB. When you go against nature like that, it will respond with wrath. But more importantly it shows that both head coaches are just fine using their starting QB's all season, and taking what the opposing defenses give them.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Apparently, both defenses are willing to give the slot receiver plenty of cushion. TE's against Denver, and slot receivers against Jacksonville have become must starts.
No sign of Lance Ball, even with a hurting Moreno and Buckhalter. 75% of the runs went to Moreno. I'm thinking that remains the case until he gets hurt again. He has Seattle and Indy over the next couple weeks....you may want to check on his availability after a 60 yard output. That number should increase.
With a bunch of easy run defenses coming up on the schedule....don't be so quick to grab Eddie Royal. If you have him, now's a great time to dangle him. Even if he racks up some yards between the 20's, his endzone looks will be rare. I say the same for the constantly overtaughted Mercedes Lewis. He has a game or two like this ever year, and then fades away. Trade him now, and if he's on the waiver wire, feel free to save your FAAB money.
Cincy at NE;
Shock AND Awe: Where to begin....NE's pass defense, Welker's knee, Fred Taylor is alive.....just all of it.
I think more than anything....this proves just how valuable Antwan Odom is to the Bengals. Without him as a disruptive pass force/run stopping DE.....the entire defense goes to shit. That allowed Taylor to run, and Brady to pick them apart. Odom will be out for at least 4 games, meaning the Cincy defense is a bad start, and opposing offensive players are good ones. Add the fact that Marvin Lewis stated "ahem....excuse me all NFL defensive coordinator's, especially those on the Patriots that are notorious for taking away our top offensive players....we are going to try to run as much as possible. Please feel free to put 8 guys in the box until we are behind on points." You just had a recipe for disaster.
Fantasy Relevant Notes
I don't know if that NE defense if for real. Once Cincy started to commit to the pass....they didn't do much to stop it. Without those turnovers (more of a result of it being week 1 as opposed to actual defensive talent) we wouldn't be talking about them right now.
That said.....OchoCinco's points were in garbage time. The first half, Shipley was leaned on heavily. Shipley has the best hands on that team, and it looks like Palmer knows it. You may want to give him a strong look starting week 3.
I still think the RB to own in NE is Maroney.
Let's be cautious with Welker. I like the fact that he got 8 grabs. I like the fact they looked for him in the endzone. But the old Wes Welker would have turned those 8 grabs into 100 yards....this new one just got 60. Cincy worked hard to keep Moss out of the game, and did a good job. But that gave Welker alot of space to work with, and he didn't do as much with it as he should have......
NE tight ends are awesome. I love them all. But you want Hernandez, not Gronkowski. One look all day. Yes it was in the endzone....but it shows who Bellicheck trusts more. That said..... you want Jermaine Gresham over either of them. 6 grabs and a TD .... I'm becoming a believer.
A note to Cleveland: I was hoping you could do us all a favor. In week 9, you play the Patriots. Now....you're probably not going to have a great season. There's a chance Mangini is done anyway. Mangini and Belicheck don't really get along. There's some potential here for Belicheck to do his "I'm going to throw relentlessly so people say Tom Brady is one of the best QB's in history, even though his greatest seasons are about stat-padding, and he doesn't have the Manning-like-class to take a knee." If that's the case......could you please, please, please line up 11 guys at the line of scrimmage and spend every down trying to physically end Brady's professional career? Please? We would all love for you to do it. The nation would really get behind you. You may actually increase attendance after that. There's nothing for you to lose, and everything for you to gain.
Carolina v. NYG:
Shock: Not much shocking about this. Maybe that the Panthers were in this game at all for awhile.
This just kind of tells me that maybe NYG defense isn't all that great. They're healthy again....so I'm blaming the new coordinator. I know they won, but it may be a long year in the NFC East for the NY Football Giants. I'm not writing them off....they looked as good as anyone to win the division....but keep an eye on that defense.
Awe: Carolina's D is that bad.
I know they forced a couple of INT's early.......but once Eli found his rhythm....game over.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Nothing you didn't know. Bradshaw is the man. Jacobs can be cut. After bouncing back from 2 INT's, Eli Manning showed why he should have another solid season. Great offensive adjustments allowed Nicks to go buck-wild. Other weeks it will be Manningham. Steve Smith is a possession guy, not a HR guy. Read: 800 yards, 4 TD's. Not what you signed up for.
There is one point of interest.......because that Carlina D is as bad as I thought they would be.....they may have to consistently abandon the run a little bit quicker. I've been waiting for Dwayne Jarrett....this might be the year. Also....it's interesting to note that LaFell was targeted about as much as Steve Smith. It will be interesting to see who Clausen targets when Moore hits the bench in week 7 for good. I've spoken about both before, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jarrett/LaFell showed some fantasy football playoff value.
Atlanta v. Pittsburgh;
Shock: Pittsburgh won.
Matt Ryan! Mike Turner! C'mon buddy.....you're making me look bad here. Short of Roddy White's 100+ yards...this offense was completely shut down.
Awe: That Pitt D is better than I thought.
It's not just that Pitt won without Big Ben...it's how they truly stifled what I believe to be a very good team. Honestly....there was alot of shock here. I know it's the Steelers defense, but.....let's go guys. There were just no bright spots on the Atlanta offense. I refuse to believe this will be a pattern. The entire team is not that bad........which means the Steeler's D really is that good. I think you may be looking at the Division Champs. It will be interesting to see how C. Johnson and company fare next week.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Harry Douglas was targeted more than Tony Gonzalez. That will continue. As an explosive slot receiver, I expect a breakout year from Douglas. Downgrade Gonzalez.
Mendenhall needed overtime to have a productive game. I've said all preseason he's a guy to avoid. He got 22 carries, Redman got 6. Expect that to turn into 15-10 as the season progresses with Redman officially getting goal line duties by week 6. Trade Mendenhall now if you can get early second round value for him.
Trust me....Atlanta is better than this. Bench...well...everyone against the Steelers. I know you have to start your Johnson's and your Rice's....but leave your Benson's, Cadillac's, and anyone else on the bench.
Cleveland v. Tampa Bay:
Shock: No Huggins....anywhere.
Keeping him on the bench is a mistake. And only 75 rushing yards out of Cadillac against Cleveland? 23 in the air? Earnest Graham with 6 carries? Only 30 yards for Mike Williams? None of this makes sense. That just looks like a very conservative coach trying to not make mistakes as opposed to winning the game. My expectations for Tampa are falling. But they're still better than the Panthers.
Awe: Jake Delholme had a reasonable game.
Don't expect that to continue. And don't get overly hyped on Massaquoi just yet. 9 out of 10 times, that TD pass that was thrown gets picked as opposed to perfectly threading the needle.
Fantasy Relevant Notes;
Freeman had 2 runs for 33 yards. His feet may give him value as the season wears on.
I don't know what to make of the Peyton Hillis situation.....but after his fumbles, I don't expect him to be as large a factor going forward. That said....I don't like Harrison all that much anymore either.
Mike Williams still had 5 grabs. Some weeks that will be 30 yards, but I think more often it will be 60. As the offense progresses, he may be Tampa's biggest threat.
Huggins is to good for this kind of treatment. Keep him on your bench. If you can afford to lose your flex RB temporarily, trade Cadillac. 3.4 YPC is just not that impressive. Tampa got lucky against Cleveland thanks to Hillis's inability to hold onto the ball. If they want another win this season, drastic changes will be made, and I think M.Williams and Huggins will be the major beneficiaries.
Oakland at Tennesee
Shock: Vince Young looked pretty good.
Don't put it all on a bad Raider's D. That D is still strong against the pass. Tennesee used the pass to set up the run, and I expect that to continue. There will be more games where Tennesses' Defense actually allows a score here or there, forcing a little more passing from Young. He has value, and so does Nate Washington.
Awe: Darren McFadden?
That's some pretty good overall numbers. Granted...most were in garbage time, but he was effective against Tennessee. Campbell on the other hand was 22 for 37, with 4 sacks. Not a great day. I still think this is a much improved Oakland team.....but they really didn't show it this week.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Outside of Washington, nobody really mattered in the Titan's passing game. That will change, and I like them to rotate who will be the lone weekly beneficiary of Young's attention. Expect them to keep it down to 2 reads depending on the other teams weakness.
Johnson is already off pace for 2500 yards. Sorry Chris, maybe when we go to 18 games.
Campbell....ugh....I just don't know. I still like Zach Miller and Louis Murphy though. I think if Mike Bush was there, the running game would have gotten more attention than it did, and the passing game would have been alot better. Downgrade Bush and McFadden, upgrade Miller and Murphy for week 2.
Green Bay at Philly:
Shock: Mike Vick
Okay....if you don't know he's coming, he will kill your gameplan, but that performance was tasty. However if you do know he's coming.....that will be a different story. If you were Andy Reid...would you let anyone think he may start? No. That makes neither QB a good start for the next couple weeks.
Awe: 31 pass attempts.....32 rushing attempts.
Expect to see that all season out of Green Bay. I don't care who is hurt.....they will run whenever possible. Including next week against the Bills.
Fantasy Related Notes:
That Green Bay pass attack is going to be tricky. Rodgers will just hit whoever's open. I think we'll see alot of stats similar to 2009 out of Green Bay, with the exception of a better ground game. That means alot of very good, not great results.
DeSean Jackson is still hurting. He just couldn't get open, and didn't really display any moves or explosiveness. It may be a couple weeks, and with Vick taking some snaps...
The entire Philly situation just got reeeaaaallllll fuzzy. McCoy will be okay every week, but never great as the only guy that will get more than 9 carries is named Vick. Maclin's about the only guy I think may be a regular start.
The Philly D is a takeaway kinda D that will continually progress as the season goes on, but you can pass on them. The Green Bay D looks like you can pass on them.....again. Adjust lineups accordingly.
AZ at St. Louis:
Shock: Mark Clayton
Is it time for him? Well....maybe. Obviously there was no gameplan for him...but...damn. Either way, make sure every receiver you have against Arizona is in your starting lineup.
Awe: Cardinals Suck. Bad.
If you can't score on St. Louis.....you're just not scoring. Beanie Wells, Schmeenie Wells....I don't care who's hurt...this whole team was irrelevant.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Stephen Jackson still couldn't get into the endzone. Looks like another 4 TD season.
Bradford with 50+ throws? Even after 3 INT's? It looks like the thought in St. Louis is that they understand they won't be that good, but they are going to develop there QB if it kills them. Which it just may. If teams keep stacking 9 in the box (which they will) then the Rams are going to keep throwing, and throwing, and throwing.....regardless of how effective it is. That defense won't protect too many leads, so I expect some good games from that WR corp. As the season progresses....so will their timing.
Mark Clayton got the gawdy numbers, but.....Danny Amendola....not too shabby. As the season goes on, I really like him for redzone looks. He's not big, but he is quick with great hands.
The one St. Louis WR I still can't back is Laurent Robinson. He's nothing but a deep ball threat....which means he'll be maddeningly inconsistent. Sooner or later Gilyard will get on that field, and it will be interesting to see who he steals targets from....but Laurent looks a prime target.
As long as Wells is hurt, you can start Hightower. But once he gets back, all Cardinals are useless. You have to start Fitzgerald...but don't rely on any of the rest of this crew for more than an emergency flex.
San Fran v. Seattle
Shock: Frank Gore's lack of productivity.
It's not like Gore gave you nothing...but......2.2 YPC? If you read my last column, I gave you reasons why I thought that Seattle D was better than you think. But there's not many defenses in the NFL that should be holding Gore to 2.2 YPC. It's not like he didn't get touches....he ran 17 times. His longest was 10 yards. That means the other 16 combined for 28 yards. Yikes. It takes alot for that to happen. Bad offensive planning, an inability to throw, a line that may not be as good as we thought they were supposed to be, and....a potential injury. This is not a buy low opportunity for Gore. This is a warning shot.
Awe: Can a whole team be that overrated?
I mean...I know the answer to that is yes....but walking into this season I don't think there are many guys that didn't think Gore would be a top 10 RB, Davis was going to be a top 3 TE, and Crabtree would be a solid #2 receiver that could be a number 1. You didn't draft Smith to start...but you thought he may have some trade value at least, and could potentially crack the top 12 against that soft schedule.
I get that this was basically a preseason game for Smith and Crabtree. Davis hasn't seen the field much either. It takes some time to develop that timing....but it's not like they didn't play together for the last 5 games of 2009. They should have showed....just...something. Anything. But they didn't.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Mike Williams got the majority of targets for Seattle. He's for real. If he's available, scoop him up. I know Brandon Jackson is the priority, but based on Seattle's schedule, I want Williams more than Lloyd, Clayton, or any other popular Waiver Wire claims this week.
Seattle didn't have alot of time on the field. They ran the ball 23 times, and threw 21. That's not a large sample size. I would add on 7 more tosses and 5 more rushes most games. When you extrapolate those numbers, a few guys look to have reasonable flex value week in and week out.
There is noone I hate more in fantasy football than Julius Jones right now. His 8 carries are inexcusable. I understand the concept of RBBC, but it's not like Jones compliments this group. He just steals carries. I get wanting to keep your guys fresh, but I think Forsett can handle more than 9 or 10 touches a game. That said, Forsett was the only RB to make a catch out of the backfield, and he did the most with his opportunity by far. Carroll will go more with the hot hand, and situational backs. There is no situation for Julius Jones. Ever. As the season goes on, I expect more and more use out of him.
I just can't see Crabtree being that bad all season, but it may be awhile before he has real relevance. Short of week 3 against KC....the first 6 games will be rough on him. Just consider him injured for the first half and prioritize a replacement via trade or waiver......like Seattle's Mike Williams.
Dallas v. Washington
Shock: Dez Bryant's targets.
I know the guy is talented. I know Dallas will throw ALOT this year. I posted both those things previously. But given his attitude and injury, I really didn't see him becoming a factor until the schedule eased up around week 8.
I was way wrong.
12 targets....the most of any Cowboy...in week 1. Now, I don't know if it was part of the strategy seeing as Washington may just not expect the rookie to get that many looks, or if it was the mismatch between him and Buchanan, or if Romo just likes him that much....but that's alot of targets.
Part of me thinks that without Columbo, Witten needs to stay back to block more. It certainly seemed that way against the Skins. That will probably hold true in week 2 against Chicago as well, as reinforcements will be called in to contain Julius Peppers. But if Bryant keeps bringing in tough catches like he did against Washington.....Romo's going to look his way all season. He definitely made some rookie mistakes, but overall he got the job done. If I didn't have Miles Austin in every league right now, every single owner that had him would be getting trade offers from me. I have no problem overpaying a little for him, and if I could get him for a guy like Addai, Ricky Williams, or Cadillac....deal. Expect solid WR#2 numbers out of Bryant this season.
Awe: Your seriously using Larry Johnson?
For those of you that followed my advice and picked up Ryan Torain....take heart. LJ put up all of 9 yards on 3 carries.
Now granted, Portis was clearly the primary ball carrier, and Dallas theoretically has a solid run defense. But something has to change here. Portis didn't look much better getting 3.5 ypc. Washington's next two games are against Houston and St. Louis. If Portis and LJ can't improve on his numbers against them....and they won't....then the Skins will look for answers. Torain's the man to target for weeks 5-17.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Jones and Barber had equal carries, with Choice right behind them. You're depending on TD's and big plays for any of these guys to have a relevant fantasy week. That three headed RB approach Dallas whipped out has promise, but for the actual Cowboys, not your fantasy team. I think Barber is your breakout candidate against Chicago. If he racks up a TD or two....trade him immediately.
I thought the lack of an offensive line would help Witten in the redzone. They would be forced to throw on the goal-line, and he would be a primary target. But Bryant creates mismatches himself. So does Austin. Witten's just more valuable as a blocker, and after the way they lost....well....wouldn't you put another guy or two in to defend Romo? I'll be interested to see how many targets he gets in a sure-to-be shootout against Chicago. If it's not an impressive day......grab Maoki from KC, Fasano from Miami, or Cincy's Gresham, and move Witten while he still has some shine on him. Or even better than those options.....
.......the guy that coached Shannon Sharpe and the QB that made LJ Smith a reasonable fantasy option have joined forces to give Chris Cooley 80 yards off 6 receptions. He was Washington's lead receiver. So much for Fred Davis. I know it's early, but Cooley's looking like a top 10 TE.
If Santana Moss didn't drop a pass early in the 4th quarter....he's well over 100 yards and a TD. He's a nice option for a slew of big games.
Romo got through an entire game without an INT. Yes....he should have had one late in the fourth quarter...but overall he was impressive. I've said it before, and I'll say it again...Romo and Austin are the best QB/WR combo for fantasy purposes you could ask for this year. (Not real life....fantasy purposes.)
Baltimore at Jets
Shock: Tomlinson- 11 carries. Greene- 5. WTF?
Was he hurt? Was Sexy Rexy trying to outsmart the Baltimore D? Did they have to pass that much? Someone explain this to me. No...seriously...I would like someone to comment below or email me and tell me what the hell happened here.
Awe: Baltimore's 70 plays from scrimmage.
That's alot of plays. 38 passing, 35 rushing. I think that's how the Ravens would like to play every game, but Flacco needs to step up the way we all thought he would. Otherwise, those 35 rushes can become 45 real quick. And so much for this RBBC...21 carries still went to Rice, with 6 highly ineffective touches to McGahee.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
I gotta believe McGahee's officially done. Look to McClain to start getting goal line looks.
Mark Sanchez is still not a good QB. That means Cotchery, Holmes, and B. Edwards will not be good WR's.
Was that a Todd Heap sighting? 72 yards including a long 35 yard reception. Think what this guy might have done if he didn't spend his career in a body cast.
I know the Jets are a good defense...but I think you can safely cut Mason. Boldin hauled in 110 yards, and while Housh only had 1 reception, it was a big one. There just won't be enough balls to go around until Boldin goes out for 3 games with a shattered femur. Yes Boldin...you are that tough where a shattered femur would only keep you out for 3 games. You are the toughest constantly injured guy I know.
Jets fans......I feel kinda bad for you. It's time for everyone to pile on about how you were never really that good anyway. But to be honest...you were supposed to lose to Baltimore. Baltimore is an excellent team. Honestly.....you played very well against a team that has ALOT of offensive talent. Your defense is for real. You know who's not an excellent team? Cincinatti without Antwan Odom. I'm really looking forward to your game next week. Please feel free to hammer Brady's knee repeatedly. I don't own him in any fantasy leagues, and he's a smug a-hole. There's a reason someone hit him with their car.
San Diego at KC
Shock: 19 Carries, 75 Yards, 1 Fumble.
That was Ryan Mathews stat line. Against the Chiefs. The ones in Kansas City. If they had to pass all night, I would understand....but 19 carries is 19 carries. This isn't the Minnesota Defense....it's Kansas City. Mathews is officially a very strong #2 RB because of the amount of carries he'll receive, but I'm thinking my preseason statement of 1200 yards, and 6-8 TD's may hold up.
Awe: Kansas City Defense?
Overall, Phillips had a solid fantasy game. So did Gates, and Mathews, and Naanee just blew up. But....Phillips still only completed 56% of his passes. I mean he tossed that ball 39 times to get a little under 300 yards.
I don't think it's Phillips. And don't even start with Vincent Jackson comments. I think that given the special teams ability of KC.....and the fact that they held a pretty good offense to 14 points....you may want to consider picking them up if you have some roster space. Especially if you had a late pick of Miami or Arizona for your defense.
Fantasy Relevant Notes:
Lots of interesting TE's out there after week one. Please, please please stay away from Mercedes Lewis. I've already spoken about Gresham, Cooley, Heap, and anyone from NE, but the guy I personally am targeting in all of my leagues is Maoki. KC didn't throw that much, and they probably never will, but he still led the team in receptions and got a redzone look. He's for real.
Naanee........nice game. He started the year stating that this season would dictate decisions about his future in the NFL. Looking like a bright future. I still like Pat Creighton to become more of a factor, but this won't be Naanee's last relevant game. However most importantly....you now have to pay attention to Naanee, and double up Gates. I'm seeing an increase in Floyd's value being the ultimate result.
It's not like San Diego is going to run that much. Yes....Turner likes to run, and I know they had to pass frequently to catch up....but this is Rivers team. I think Mathews tops out at 25 moderately effective carries a game, and the real points come through the air.
The KC running backs split 11 carries each. Remember in 07 when Marion Barber and Julius Jones split carries? J.Jones was the "starter" but maybe a low-end flex option at best, and Barber was a top 10 option because of his touchdown production and penchant for big games? You see where I'm going here? Next time Charles has a bad game because Jones takes his endzone opportunity, put in that trade offer.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Fantasy Football Gut Feeling
Oh.... this is getting exciting. I love the early stages of football. I love the crisp September air...the ability to barbecue for the first few weeks of the game even in the what will soon be frigid northeast, having too many beers during the 1pm game but still staying for the 4pm games, the bloated crappy feeling of Monday mornings, and the ability to spout off on what I think will take course over the next few months and watching it unfold in a crowded bar over crappy nachos and Coors Light specials.
Football season finally gets kicked off on Thursday night with Minny facing the Saints. My gut feeling....one of those two teams is going into week 2 with a big "Q" next to their quarterbacks name on the injury report. I have no real reason for this outside of the fact that Favre is already 60 and walking on a bad ankle, and Drew Brees was on the cover of Madden.
This is the X factor of fantasy football. The superstition....the gut feeling. It's about hearing something over the off-season that gave you pause....maybe a little blurb you read about a team got stuck in your subconscious. There's just a bunch of small factoids you've picked up that for some reason unconsciously like or don't like a player.
I offer you my gut feelings about the 2010-11 season. I'll back it up with unsatisfying reason, and you'll walk away questioning whether you should ever read this blog again. But I'm marking my words here, and by week 8 you can look back at my genius and realize you will never win without me.
Gut Feeling #1: The Cowboys are a wild card team...... at best.
Personally I think everyone's favorite SuperBowl pick will fall flat in 2010. It kills me to say this, as I'm a huge Cowboy fan, but there's no denying that Run D has looked weak this preseason. I know it's largely the same group from last year......but it's almost as if last year was their peak. Their ratio for yards to touchdowns is a little off compared to the rest of the league. They were 9th in rushing/receiving yards allowed, but 3rd in TD's allowed. And it's not like the create turnovers. They were 25th in INT's. That doesn't add up. They play "bend don't break", and they were remarkably good at it in 2009, which shows that they were at the top of their game. Which means there's nowhere to go but down. Add in an upsetting Offensive line situation that's already dealing with injuries....most significantly to Columbo....and I just don't think dem' Cowboys will be effective at running the ball, or defending the run. You need to do both very, very well to make it as far as most are saying.
Then....take a look at that schedule....it's just brutal. Absolutely brutal. Completely unforgiving. I think we're looking at a 9-7 team here. However......
Gut Feeling #2: Miles Austin will be the hands down best fantasy WR this year, and Romo will be the #1 QB.
How can you barely make the playoffs, but have a top QB and WR? Ask Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The Cowboys will throw this year. Like...alot. They won't be able to run effectively behind that line, and the defense will be giving up way more points. This team will be relying HEAVILY on the arm and playmaking ability of one Mr. Tony Romo. There will be a ton of pressure, but while Romo's not off banging blonde music starlets, (which is truly why I love him) he's rehearsing that playoff game against the Vikes over, and over, and over in his head. He'll handle it better. He turned a corner last year with his field vision, tossing only 9 INT's. I don't expect him to copy that, (17 INT's sounds about right) but I do like him to increase his yards to a Schaub like 4800 (don't scoff...it's only 25 more yards/game) , and get his TD's back into the low-to-mid-30's.
As far as Austin goes, If you take his stats from week 5 (his first start) on and spread them out over a whole season, he's over 1500 yards and 12 TD's. He was targeted in the redzone 21 times....5 of which at the goal line. He's Romo's new pet. His go to guy. If the Cowboys throw more, he catches more. I don't expect him to reach 1500 yards, but he will be the 2008 version of Larry Fitzgerald with 1400 yards and 12 TD's.
Fitzgerald has a bad QB, A.Johnson will lose looks to Jacoby Jones, Reggie Wayne is only good every other year, and while Moss will likely get close to his 2009 numbers, he'll never have 2007 again. Austin is the man. Hope you drafted him.
Gut Feeling #3: Hotlanta's your NFC Superbowl representative.
Yes...a full season of Turner, the continued development of Matt Ryan, and the addition of Dunta Robinson absolutely positively make this team that much better.
Everyone stands to increase their numbers this year. Slot Matt Ryan in on the backend of the elite for 2009. He's ready. I know Falcons love to run, but their schedule just begs to be passed on. Almost every team they face has a better run D than a pass D. They're not turning into the '07 Pats, but they are looking like the '08 Chargers. Put Ryan down for 4000 yards, and 32 TD's.
Turner's value here is obvious. They will pass more, but it's not like they will abandon the run. I personally thought he was one of the safest round 1 draft picks on the board. His yards per carry actually went UP from his amazing 1700 yard 2008 season. Just imagine what he could do if teams couldn't stuff 11 guys in a box against him. He won't get 378 carries again, but he will get between 275-300. That's still a minimum 1400 yard, 10 TD season.
More passing also gives Roddy White what he's been lacking....consistency. His games are boom or bust to date, but I like him to provide a little more boom and match his career bests with 1300 yards and 11 TD's. Tony Gonzalez was on pace for 1000 yards before his 2009 injury, and I expect him to get their this year. And as far as sleepers go....keep Harry Douglas on your watch list. He's the perfect age to break out, and the slot position that he'll be running out of is perfect for his skill set. He's not Wes Welker. But he is Wes Welker light, and once he gets open...he's gone.
Lastly......the Atlanta D is still on a ton of waiver wires. This is a mistake. They may actually be the most valuable property Atlanta has to offer. That defensive line is over their injuries, meaning they're back to devouring quarterbacks and forcing interceptions. Drop your Dallas D, your New England D, and your Cincinnati D and pick up these guys.
Gut Feeling #4: Jacoby Jones will be Houston's most productive WR.
This is not because I think he's more talented than Johnson. I just don't think Johnson will stay healthy for 16 games. I give him 12....enough for close to 1000 yards, but not enough to be better than Jones' totals. This also means that at some point this season Kevin Walter will be a viable start for a few weeks.
Gut Feeling #5: San Francisco's Defense is not all it's cracked up to be.
I think that offense will be fine. That defense however.....look at their 2009 schedule. Look where they got most of their takeaways. San Fran played very well against very bad teams. The D didn't really hold it's ground against anyone with a decent quarterback. Now...they still play in the NFC West, so it's not like they are going to get torched by Derek Anderson and Charlie Whitehurst....but they may get exploited once teams realize their pressure leaves alot of short passes open. There's alot of West Coast offenses on that schedule. It just doesn't feel right.
Gut Feeling #6: Kevin Kolb will suck more than you think.
I know you can't go by preseason, but....jeesh. That's a crappy preseason. I know you look at last year and see two games with 300+ yards. But don't forget about the 4 INT's that went along with it. He's not this year's Matt Schaub....he's this years John Kitna. I think his first four games will be telling. He has Green Bay, Detroit, Jacksonville and Washington. Now....I think Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Detroit have better defenses than advertised, but if his INT's outweigh his TD's......it may not get better against Atlanta, Tennessee, etc.
Gut Feeling #7: The Colts will not win their division.
That line is hurting. That D was never that good. You may be sensing a theme here in my gut feelings. Yes...it's a passing league, but you still have to be able to control the line of scrimmage. This year, things start falling apart for Mr. Manning and company. Jacksonville and Tennessee are alot tougher this year than they were last year. Houston has Indy's number. They're on the road at Washington, Philly, and the strong Oakland pass defense, and get Dallas, Cincy, San Diego and the NY Giants at home. That's not an easy schedule. Will Manning be a top 10 QB? Yes...absolutely. But I see him closer to 5th than 1st. That's also bad news for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. And really....with all those targets.....will any of them be worth the positions they're being drafted in? And please.....forget about Addai and Brown. They're matchup level flex starters in an offense that doesn't love to run between the 20's. Think more along the lines of Seattle's Forsett/Washington than Miami's Brown/Williams. In fact, while we're on underachieving QB's......
Gut Feeling #8: Drew Brees will NOT be a top 5 QB in 2010.
First reason....Madden cover.
However, to lend some actual credibility to my assertion, allow me to point to 2009. Brees had a 4 year low in attempts....over 100 less than 2007 and 2008. Yet he was the top scoring QB. How? He had an absolutely mindblowingly ridiculous 70.6% completion percentage. That IS a Madden like stat. He also had more TD's with less passes than he's ever recorded. His TD Ratio of 34/11 is...well....it's once in a career kind of stuff. That's a great season for Manning, Elway, or Marino much less Brees. His defense also had 37 takeaways. Now tell me....what's more likely to happen;
1) His defense has another 37 takeaways allowing him to keep throwing, his completion percentage stays at 70%, and his TD/INT ratio stays at the same level;
OR
2) The Saints look at their 2009 success on the ground and keep running, and Brees attempts actually DROP a little because his D doesn't keep giving him the ball at the opponents 20 yard line, and his numbers go back to career norms.
If you said 2, I agree with you. So if we take 500 attempts (still a very healthy amount) and assume that 65% are completed as opposed to 70%, and that the TD/INT ratio goes from 3/1 to Brees' career norm of 2/1, and STILL say his YPP stays the same as 2009......
We are left with 4100, 28, 14. Very good numbers.....but closer to Eli Manning than Peyton.
Gut Feeling #9: The impact NFL team that absolutely NOONE is banking on to win anything in 2010 are the Seattle Seahawks.
The Defense is sneaky good. Why do I say that? Curry and Jackson were misused in last year's D. They should be attacking QB's, not covering the flats. Trufant is healthy. Tatupu and Hawthorne on the field at the same time makes for alot more takeaways. Earl Thomas is the real deal. There's just a good mix of big play guys and good coverage players against a REALLY, REALLY week schedule. This offense will not be so bland either. Hasselbeck will be asked to open it up more......which he is capable of doing. If he isn't, Whitehurst is. There's a reason they got Leon Washington. You should get him on your roster as well. I l-o-v-e LOVE Mike Williams as the big WR story this year. It could be bigger than Fitzgerald's dad being the writer that covers Fitzgerald! And for as bad as that O-line played....that was alot of injuries to overcome, and it's tough to open holes for RB's when EVERYONE knows what play is coming.
I'm not saying they're a superbowl team. I'm just saying they'll matter. Watch for them to be battling Dallas for the Wild-Card spot this year.....and maybe even San Fran for the division
Gut Feeling #10: This is Josh McDaniel's last year in Denver.
They will just suck. Their offense will suck. Their defense will suck. They won't be able to run, throw, catch, or tackle. They just suck. I see 2 wins.....one against KC at home, and one at AZ after they start testing their own rookie QB's. But I think it's highly probable they open the season with 8 straight losses.
Gut Feeling #11: Eric Mangini keeps his job.
Why? The running game is okay. The defense (especially the passing D) is better. But really it's a gut feeling. They get 7-8 wins with KC, Tampa, Carolina, and Buffallo, an upset when NE comes to town, and a job saving 3 game win streak against Cincy, Baltimore, and Pitt in weeks 15, 16, and 17.
Gut Feeling #12: Terrel Owens outscores Chad OchoCinco in fantasy this year.
Nothing more to say about that. It's just going to happen.
Gut Feeling #13: Javid Best will outperform Ryan Mathews.
I don't think Mathews will suck. I think he'll be just fine. Much like he has all preseason, he'll be a solid but not overwhelming performer. I think he'll get 250 carries with a 4 yards/carry average, and pick up 30 receptions for another 200 yards. That's 1200 total yards. But I think that Creighton and Gates will do their fare share of scoring, and Mathews is left with about 8 TD's for 2010. Basically, he's better than 2009 Matt Forte, but about the same as 2010 Matt Forte. That's not what you drafted.
Best on the other hand....Schwartz can't wait to use him. He can't wait to get him passes in the flat. He can't wait to bounce him outside on reverses. He can't wait to use that speed, balance, and slashing ability to run up and down the football in a power set. Best will have alot more big plays than Mathews, and while Pettigrew and Johnson will get goal-line targets, Philips will be asked to toss more than Stafford in that spot. I give Best about the same amount of yards as Mathews, with more TD's.
Gut Feeling #14: Isaac Redman and Chris Ivory are the highest scoring fantasy RB's on their teams.
Here's the thing about Mendenhall....he has alot of talent, but a rough injury history, and he will spend the first 4 games of the season staring at 11 guys on the line EVERY PLAY. By the time Big Ben gets back, and 0-4 Pitt team may be looking for new answers. And the coaches have a HUGE hard-on for Redman. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts seeing a Bettis like workload, running out clocks and taking all the rushing TD's. Mendenhall will be useful, but.......I'm thinking 2006 Bettis>Staley situation.
Ivory's in the same situation. An injury prone Pierre Thomas spends the first three games squaring off against Minny, San Fran, and Atlanta. That's a rough front 3. Sean Peyton goes with the hot hand at RB. With Thomas starting cold....Ivory gets the call, and doesn't give it up.
Gut Feeling #15
There's my gut feelings. Please feel free to disagree by posting some comments below.
Football season finally gets kicked off on Thursday night with Minny facing the Saints. My gut feeling....one of those two teams is going into week 2 with a big "Q" next to their quarterbacks name on the injury report. I have no real reason for this outside of the fact that Favre is already 60 and walking on a bad ankle, and Drew Brees was on the cover of Madden.
This is the X factor of fantasy football. The superstition....the gut feeling. It's about hearing something over the off-season that gave you pause....maybe a little blurb you read about a team got stuck in your subconscious. There's just a bunch of small factoids you've picked up that for some reason unconsciously like or don't like a player.
I offer you my gut feelings about the 2010-11 season. I'll back it up with unsatisfying reason, and you'll walk away questioning whether you should ever read this blog again. But I'm marking my words here, and by week 8 you can look back at my genius and realize you will never win without me.
Gut Feeling #1: The Cowboys are a wild card team...... at best.
Personally I think everyone's favorite SuperBowl pick will fall flat in 2010. It kills me to say this, as I'm a huge Cowboy fan, but there's no denying that Run D has looked weak this preseason. I know it's largely the same group from last year......but it's almost as if last year was their peak. Their ratio for yards to touchdowns is a little off compared to the rest of the league. They were 9th in rushing/receiving yards allowed, but 3rd in TD's allowed. And it's not like the create turnovers. They were 25th in INT's. That doesn't add up. They play "bend don't break", and they were remarkably good at it in 2009, which shows that they were at the top of their game. Which means there's nowhere to go but down. Add in an upsetting Offensive line situation that's already dealing with injuries....most significantly to Columbo....and I just don't think dem' Cowboys will be effective at running the ball, or defending the run. You need to do both very, very well to make it as far as most are saying.
Then....take a look at that schedule....it's just brutal. Absolutely brutal. Completely unforgiving. I think we're looking at a 9-7 team here. However......
Gut Feeling #2: Miles Austin will be the hands down best fantasy WR this year, and Romo will be the #1 QB.
How can you barely make the playoffs, but have a top QB and WR? Ask Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The Cowboys will throw this year. Like...alot. They won't be able to run effectively behind that line, and the defense will be giving up way more points. This team will be relying HEAVILY on the arm and playmaking ability of one Mr. Tony Romo. There will be a ton of pressure, but while Romo's not off banging blonde music starlets, (which is truly why I love him) he's rehearsing that playoff game against the Vikes over, and over, and over in his head. He'll handle it better. He turned a corner last year with his field vision, tossing only 9 INT's. I don't expect him to copy that, (17 INT's sounds about right) but I do like him to increase his yards to a Schaub like 4800 (don't scoff...it's only 25 more yards/game) , and get his TD's back into the low-to-mid-30's.
As far as Austin goes, If you take his stats from week 5 (his first start) on and spread them out over a whole season, he's over 1500 yards and 12 TD's. He was targeted in the redzone 21 times....5 of which at the goal line. He's Romo's new pet. His go to guy. If the Cowboys throw more, he catches more. I don't expect him to reach 1500 yards, but he will be the 2008 version of Larry Fitzgerald with 1400 yards and 12 TD's.
Fitzgerald has a bad QB, A.Johnson will lose looks to Jacoby Jones, Reggie Wayne is only good every other year, and while Moss will likely get close to his 2009 numbers, he'll never have 2007 again. Austin is the man. Hope you drafted him.
Gut Feeling #3: Hotlanta's your NFC Superbowl representative.
Yes...a full season of Turner, the continued development of Matt Ryan, and the addition of Dunta Robinson absolutely positively make this team that much better.
Everyone stands to increase their numbers this year. Slot Matt Ryan in on the backend of the elite for 2009. He's ready. I know Falcons love to run, but their schedule just begs to be passed on. Almost every team they face has a better run D than a pass D. They're not turning into the '07 Pats, but they are looking like the '08 Chargers. Put Ryan down for 4000 yards, and 32 TD's.
Turner's value here is obvious. They will pass more, but it's not like they will abandon the run. I personally thought he was one of the safest round 1 draft picks on the board. His yards per carry actually went UP from his amazing 1700 yard 2008 season. Just imagine what he could do if teams couldn't stuff 11 guys in a box against him. He won't get 378 carries again, but he will get between 275-300. That's still a minimum 1400 yard, 10 TD season.
More passing also gives Roddy White what he's been lacking....consistency. His games are boom or bust to date, but I like him to provide a little more boom and match his career bests with 1300 yards and 11 TD's. Tony Gonzalez was on pace for 1000 yards before his 2009 injury, and I expect him to get their this year. And as far as sleepers go....keep Harry Douglas on your watch list. He's the perfect age to break out, and the slot position that he'll be running out of is perfect for his skill set. He's not Wes Welker. But he is Wes Welker light, and once he gets open...he's gone.
Lastly......the Atlanta D is still on a ton of waiver wires. This is a mistake. They may actually be the most valuable property Atlanta has to offer. That defensive line is over their injuries, meaning they're back to devouring quarterbacks and forcing interceptions. Drop your Dallas D, your New England D, and your Cincinnati D and pick up these guys.
Gut Feeling #4: Jacoby Jones will be Houston's most productive WR.
This is not because I think he's more talented than Johnson. I just don't think Johnson will stay healthy for 16 games. I give him 12....enough for close to 1000 yards, but not enough to be better than Jones' totals. This also means that at some point this season Kevin Walter will be a viable start for a few weeks.
Gut Feeling #5: San Francisco's Defense is not all it's cracked up to be.
I think that offense will be fine. That defense however.....look at their 2009 schedule. Look where they got most of their takeaways. San Fran played very well against very bad teams. The D didn't really hold it's ground against anyone with a decent quarterback. Now...they still play in the NFC West, so it's not like they are going to get torched by Derek Anderson and Charlie Whitehurst....but they may get exploited once teams realize their pressure leaves alot of short passes open. There's alot of West Coast offenses on that schedule. It just doesn't feel right.
Gut Feeling #6: Kevin Kolb will suck more than you think.
I know you can't go by preseason, but....jeesh. That's a crappy preseason. I know you look at last year and see two games with 300+ yards. But don't forget about the 4 INT's that went along with it. He's not this year's Matt Schaub....he's this years John Kitna. I think his first four games will be telling. He has Green Bay, Detroit, Jacksonville and Washington. Now....I think Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Detroit have better defenses than advertised, but if his INT's outweigh his TD's......it may not get better against Atlanta, Tennessee, etc.
Gut Feeling #7: The Colts will not win their division.
That line is hurting. That D was never that good. You may be sensing a theme here in my gut feelings. Yes...it's a passing league, but you still have to be able to control the line of scrimmage. This year, things start falling apart for Mr. Manning and company. Jacksonville and Tennessee are alot tougher this year than they were last year. Houston has Indy's number. They're on the road at Washington, Philly, and the strong Oakland pass defense, and get Dallas, Cincy, San Diego and the NY Giants at home. That's not an easy schedule. Will Manning be a top 10 QB? Yes...absolutely. But I see him closer to 5th than 1st. That's also bad news for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. And really....with all those targets.....will any of them be worth the positions they're being drafted in? And please.....forget about Addai and Brown. They're matchup level flex starters in an offense that doesn't love to run between the 20's. Think more along the lines of Seattle's Forsett/Washington than Miami's Brown/Williams. In fact, while we're on underachieving QB's......
Gut Feeling #8: Drew Brees will NOT be a top 5 QB in 2010.
First reason....Madden cover.
However, to lend some actual credibility to my assertion, allow me to point to 2009. Brees had a 4 year low in attempts....over 100 less than 2007 and 2008. Yet he was the top scoring QB. How? He had an absolutely mindblowingly ridiculous 70.6% completion percentage. That IS a Madden like stat. He also had more TD's with less passes than he's ever recorded. His TD Ratio of 34/11 is...well....it's once in a career kind of stuff. That's a great season for Manning, Elway, or Marino much less Brees. His defense also had 37 takeaways. Now tell me....what's more likely to happen;
1) His defense has another 37 takeaways allowing him to keep throwing, his completion percentage stays at 70%, and his TD/INT ratio stays at the same level;
OR
2) The Saints look at their 2009 success on the ground and keep running, and Brees attempts actually DROP a little because his D doesn't keep giving him the ball at the opponents 20 yard line, and his numbers go back to career norms.
If you said 2, I agree with you. So if we take 500 attempts (still a very healthy amount) and assume that 65% are completed as opposed to 70%, and that the TD/INT ratio goes from 3/1 to Brees' career norm of 2/1, and STILL say his YPP stays the same as 2009......
We are left with 4100, 28, 14. Very good numbers.....but closer to Eli Manning than Peyton.
Gut Feeling #9: The impact NFL team that absolutely NOONE is banking on to win anything in 2010 are the Seattle Seahawks.
The Defense is sneaky good. Why do I say that? Curry and Jackson were misused in last year's D. They should be attacking QB's, not covering the flats. Trufant is healthy. Tatupu and Hawthorne on the field at the same time makes for alot more takeaways. Earl Thomas is the real deal. There's just a good mix of big play guys and good coverage players against a REALLY, REALLY week schedule. This offense will not be so bland either. Hasselbeck will be asked to open it up more......which he is capable of doing. If he isn't, Whitehurst is. There's a reason they got Leon Washington. You should get him on your roster as well. I l-o-v-e LOVE Mike Williams as the big WR story this year. It could be bigger than Fitzgerald's dad being the writer that covers Fitzgerald! And for as bad as that O-line played....that was alot of injuries to overcome, and it's tough to open holes for RB's when EVERYONE knows what play is coming.
I'm not saying they're a superbowl team. I'm just saying they'll matter. Watch for them to be battling Dallas for the Wild-Card spot this year.....and maybe even San Fran for the division
Gut Feeling #10: This is Josh McDaniel's last year in Denver.
They will just suck. Their offense will suck. Their defense will suck. They won't be able to run, throw, catch, or tackle. They just suck. I see 2 wins.....one against KC at home, and one at AZ after they start testing their own rookie QB's. But I think it's highly probable they open the season with 8 straight losses.
Gut Feeling #11: Eric Mangini keeps his job.
Why? The running game is okay. The defense (especially the passing D) is better. But really it's a gut feeling. They get 7-8 wins with KC, Tampa, Carolina, and Buffallo, an upset when NE comes to town, and a job saving 3 game win streak against Cincy, Baltimore, and Pitt in weeks 15, 16, and 17.
Gut Feeling #12: Terrel Owens outscores Chad OchoCinco in fantasy this year.
Nothing more to say about that. It's just going to happen.
Gut Feeling #13: Javid Best will outperform Ryan Mathews.
I don't think Mathews will suck. I think he'll be just fine. Much like he has all preseason, he'll be a solid but not overwhelming performer. I think he'll get 250 carries with a 4 yards/carry average, and pick up 30 receptions for another 200 yards. That's 1200 total yards. But I think that Creighton and Gates will do their fare share of scoring, and Mathews is left with about 8 TD's for 2010. Basically, he's better than 2009 Matt Forte, but about the same as 2010 Matt Forte. That's not what you drafted.
Best on the other hand....Schwartz can't wait to use him. He can't wait to get him passes in the flat. He can't wait to bounce him outside on reverses. He can't wait to use that speed, balance, and slashing ability to run up and down the football in a power set. Best will have alot more big plays than Mathews, and while Pettigrew and Johnson will get goal-line targets, Philips will be asked to toss more than Stafford in that spot. I give Best about the same amount of yards as Mathews, with more TD's.
Gut Feeling #14: Isaac Redman and Chris Ivory are the highest scoring fantasy RB's on their teams.
Here's the thing about Mendenhall....he has alot of talent, but a rough injury history, and he will spend the first 4 games of the season staring at 11 guys on the line EVERY PLAY. By the time Big Ben gets back, and 0-4 Pitt team may be looking for new answers. And the coaches have a HUGE hard-on for Redman. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts seeing a Bettis like workload, running out clocks and taking all the rushing TD's. Mendenhall will be useful, but.......I'm thinking 2006 Bettis>Staley situation.
Ivory's in the same situation. An injury prone Pierre Thomas spends the first three games squaring off against Minny, San Fran, and Atlanta. That's a rough front 3. Sean Peyton goes with the hot hand at RB. With Thomas starting cold....Ivory gets the call, and doesn't give it up.
Gut Feeling #15
There's my gut feelings. Please feel free to disagree by posting some comments below.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Fantasy Football Week 1 Waiver Pickups
Soooo......you drafted Sidney Rice in your early August draft. Now you have a hole at WR. Or maybe you were counting on Michael Bush in that number two slot. Maybe you just have a really bad match-up that you know will hurt you, but it's only week 1 right? You've been doing a little tinkering here and there, and you've filled out the back of your rosters with one of the newly hyped Mike Williams', Sam Bradford, or Jermaine Gresham, So why not give the guys you drafted a chance?
Here's why....because you don't want to lose.
Week 1 is an exciting week yet perplexing week for fantasy team owners. You can't wait to see your team in action. Will your sleepers start off hot? Are you going to regret passing on Jamaal Charles to grab DeSean Jackson? So many questions are about to get answered. On top of that, you haven't seen a defense yet. You're going by 2009 team rankings....not 2010, because there's no body of work to examine. In fact, you haven't seen ANY of your players in a real game situation. You're not thinking of using the waiver wire right now, because...well....you picked the guys you did for a reason, and you would like to give them a chance.
Don't give them a chance. Cut them. It's time to take a very strong look at your team, and think about who's going to be on waivers by week 4 anyway when you're TE has a bye. Cut that guy, bench your bad matchup, and pick up one of these players. Then....when all the owners log on after Sunday's 1pm games and curse you for already grabbing them before the games even started, while respecting your genius, you can be contemplating which sucker to drop them on in a trade.
Week 1 RB Waiver Pickups:
Ryan Torain, Washington;
I'm a diehard Cowboys fan, so it kills me to say this, but....Dallas is going to lose this game, and Torain's going to be a big reason for it.
Look....I'm no Mike Shanahan, but here's what I've seen so far out of Dallas:
1) Anyone watching that playoff game knows you need to blitz the crap out of Romo.
2) Romo is still a two read QB.
3) That offensive line is hurting. Badly. And dem' Cowboys have been miserable on the ground this preseason. I expect that to continue for awhile.
4) Arian Foster tore them to shreds on the ground. In fact....most RB's short of Ryan Mathews have done a pretty good job against the Cowboys this season. I hate to say this, but they might be missing some of the "experienced" linebacking corp from 2009 that they let go.
Here's what I know about Washington;
1) Their defense is improved.
2) Their coaching is improved.
3) They've listed L. Johnson as the #2 RB on the depth chart.
4) They barely ran the ball in their last two preseason games.
Now take into account that Shanahan is full of shit. He's the kind of coach that looks to reveal as little as possible about his gameplan. Hell....he offers blatant misdirection. If I'm him, I'm putting 2 guys on Miles, 1 on Witten, and blitzing 8 guys every single defensive play. I'm then using two backs that can pass block (which Larry Johnson can't) to run up and down the field, and pickup a few receptions from McNabb. Torain will get his share of carries/receptions, and he'll be able to do something with them. He's not especially fast or quick, but he can find and hit a hole like Peter North on a coke binge. There will be a couple of 2 yard bursts...but when he breaks that long one you'll be glad you started him.
Final numbers: 9 carries, 2 receptions, 110 total yards, 2 TD's.
Lance Ball, Denver
On the negative side....There is little doubt in my mind that Denver will be the NFL's worst team in 2010. The Defense has lost their best player, and more importantly Mike Nolan has moved on to teams that aren't spending every waking second trying to make roster moves to hasten the inevitable implosion. Their coach is too smart for his own good, and needs to stop playing GM. To make matters worse, they draw the revamped defense of the Jags, who will be a hell of alot better stopping the run this year than last year.
But there is some bright spots here. There are some guys on this roster that would normally have little fantasy relevance whatsoever. But because the team sucks so bad, guys like Lance Ball may actually be a serviceable matchup.
McDaniels draws from the New England "hit em where they're weak" playbook. In 2009, Jacksonville had a crap run defense. It's relying on rookies to shore it up. Those rookies will do exactly that....this will be a very good defense in 2010. But for week 1.....McDaniels will try to run, run, run the ball.
Lendale White is out for the season. Buckhalter is banged up (as usual), and Fargas is cut. Moreno is just starting to come back off a hamstring injury, which means he can't cut properly. A bad hamstring pull takes at least 8 weeks to heal with complete rest. It's not eight weeks yet.
By process of elimination....Lance Ball will get his share of carries this week.
Ball isn't a large back. At 5-9, 215 he's no goal line threat. But during his time with Indy, he did carry the rock 13 times for 83 yards, and displayed decent hands. He's worked on improving his pass blocking (which was his major negative for the Colts) and absolutely ran over the Steeler's this pre-season. He's playing like a guy that really wants a job, and that's good news for week 1.
Final Stats: 15 carries, 3 receptions, 68 yards, 1 TD.
Christopher Ivory, New Orleans.
I can't believe this guys not getting more press. He's built like Mike Bell. He runs like Mike Bell. He IS Mike Bell in this offense, except he's a better receiver. You know all those carries that Mike Bell left behind that are supposed to go to Pierre and Reggie? They are going to Ivory. Against the Minny run D, they will mostly be in the endzone. Don't believe me? Watch this, and then tell me I'm wrong.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81a115cb/Saints-Ivory-scores-spectacular-76-yard-TD
Final Stats: 6 carries, 2 receptions, 32 yards, 2 TD's.
Kareem Huggins; Tampa Bay
You have a guy with game changing speed, backing up one of the most fragile RB's in the league, with an injured starting QB, against one of the worst run D's in the league. I've spoken about Huggins before. I fully expect him to be the most sought after free agent once Sunday's games are over. Save your FAAB money, and pick him up now.
Final Stats: 10 carries, 4 receptions, 128 yards, 1 TD.
Week 1 Wide Receivers:
Sam Hurd, Dallas;
I didn't say Dallas wouldn't score at all. I did say Witten and Austin would be covered. Bank on this game starting with a long attempt against a questionable safety, landing in the hands of Sam Hurd as he will be open and this is the only kind of pass he can catch, and him taking it to the house.
Final Stats: 2 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD.
Danny Amendola, St. Louis;
He's formed a great chemistry with Bradford over this preseason, and is against an over-rated Arizona Pass D. Even if Bradford only throws 15 times, 10 of them will be in this kids direction.
Final Stats: 8 receptions, 89 yards.
Brian Hartline, Miami
Buffalo's secondary isn't fast enough to catch up with this kid. At some point, they'll let Henne toss one deep for fun. It's going to Hartline.
Final Stats: 4 receptions, 93 yards, 1 TD.
Week 1 Waiver Wire Quarterbacks;
Matt Hasselback;
List of QB's with a higher ownership percentage that this former all-pro;
Matt Cassel
Sam Bradford
Jason Campbell
Big Ben Roethlesburger.
C'mon guys....someone pick this guy up. He's one of the least owned QB's out there, with an amazingly soft schedule, that starts week 1 against a Niners club that is sure to force the pass in the second half. If Kevin Kolb is your starter, you will be better off here than watching him throw 3 INT's against Green Bay.
Final stats: 24 for 36, 287 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
Matt Stafford:
There are a host of QB's you should consider sitting in lieu of Stafford....first and foremost the guy across the field from him. The Lions D may not be first class, but it's enough to force a few bad throws from Cutler. Stafford on the other hand gets to face a banged up Chicago D that will be busy trying to stop the run. Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best are enough reasons to think he'll put up some solid numbers in week 1.
Final Stats: 328 yards, 2 TD's.
Here's why....because you don't want to lose.
Week 1 is an exciting week yet perplexing week for fantasy team owners. You can't wait to see your team in action. Will your sleepers start off hot? Are you going to regret passing on Jamaal Charles to grab DeSean Jackson? So many questions are about to get answered. On top of that, you haven't seen a defense yet. You're going by 2009 team rankings....not 2010, because there's no body of work to examine. In fact, you haven't seen ANY of your players in a real game situation. You're not thinking of using the waiver wire right now, because...well....you picked the guys you did for a reason, and you would like to give them a chance.
Don't give them a chance. Cut them. It's time to take a very strong look at your team, and think about who's going to be on waivers by week 4 anyway when you're TE has a bye. Cut that guy, bench your bad matchup, and pick up one of these players. Then....when all the owners log on after Sunday's 1pm games and curse you for already grabbing them before the games even started, while respecting your genius, you can be contemplating which sucker to drop them on in a trade.
Week 1 RB Waiver Pickups:
Ryan Torain, Washington;
I'm a diehard Cowboys fan, so it kills me to say this, but....Dallas is going to lose this game, and Torain's going to be a big reason for it.
Look....I'm no Mike Shanahan, but here's what I've seen so far out of Dallas:
1) Anyone watching that playoff game knows you need to blitz the crap out of Romo.
2) Romo is still a two read QB.
3) That offensive line is hurting. Badly. And dem' Cowboys have been miserable on the ground this preseason. I expect that to continue for awhile.
4) Arian Foster tore them to shreds on the ground. In fact....most RB's short of Ryan Mathews have done a pretty good job against the Cowboys this season. I hate to say this, but they might be missing some of the "experienced" linebacking corp from 2009 that they let go.
Here's what I know about Washington;
1) Their defense is improved.
2) Their coaching is improved.
3) They've listed L. Johnson as the #2 RB on the depth chart.
4) They barely ran the ball in their last two preseason games.
Now take into account that Shanahan is full of shit. He's the kind of coach that looks to reveal as little as possible about his gameplan. Hell....he offers blatant misdirection. If I'm him, I'm putting 2 guys on Miles, 1 on Witten, and blitzing 8 guys every single defensive play. I'm then using two backs that can pass block (which Larry Johnson can't) to run up and down the field, and pickup a few receptions from McNabb. Torain will get his share of carries/receptions, and he'll be able to do something with them. He's not especially fast or quick, but he can find and hit a hole like Peter North on a coke binge. There will be a couple of 2 yard bursts...but when he breaks that long one you'll be glad you started him.
Final numbers: 9 carries, 2 receptions, 110 total yards, 2 TD's.
Lance Ball, Denver
On the negative side....There is little doubt in my mind that Denver will be the NFL's worst team in 2010. The Defense has lost their best player, and more importantly Mike Nolan has moved on to teams that aren't spending every waking second trying to make roster moves to hasten the inevitable implosion. Their coach is too smart for his own good, and needs to stop playing GM. To make matters worse, they draw the revamped defense of the Jags, who will be a hell of alot better stopping the run this year than last year.
But there is some bright spots here. There are some guys on this roster that would normally have little fantasy relevance whatsoever. But because the team sucks so bad, guys like Lance Ball may actually be a serviceable matchup.
McDaniels draws from the New England "hit em where they're weak" playbook. In 2009, Jacksonville had a crap run defense. It's relying on rookies to shore it up. Those rookies will do exactly that....this will be a very good defense in 2010. But for week 1.....McDaniels will try to run, run, run the ball.
Lendale White is out for the season. Buckhalter is banged up (as usual), and Fargas is cut. Moreno is just starting to come back off a hamstring injury, which means he can't cut properly. A bad hamstring pull takes at least 8 weeks to heal with complete rest. It's not eight weeks yet.
By process of elimination....Lance Ball will get his share of carries this week.
Ball isn't a large back. At 5-9, 215 he's no goal line threat. But during his time with Indy, he did carry the rock 13 times for 83 yards, and displayed decent hands. He's worked on improving his pass blocking (which was his major negative for the Colts) and absolutely ran over the Steeler's this pre-season. He's playing like a guy that really wants a job, and that's good news for week 1.
Final Stats: 15 carries, 3 receptions, 68 yards, 1 TD.
Christopher Ivory, New Orleans.
I can't believe this guys not getting more press. He's built like Mike Bell. He runs like Mike Bell. He IS Mike Bell in this offense, except he's a better receiver. You know all those carries that Mike Bell left behind that are supposed to go to Pierre and Reggie? They are going to Ivory. Against the Minny run D, they will mostly be in the endzone. Don't believe me? Watch this, and then tell me I'm wrong.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81a115cb/Saints-Ivory-scores-spectacular-76-yard-TD
Final Stats: 6 carries, 2 receptions, 32 yards, 2 TD's.
Kareem Huggins; Tampa Bay
You have a guy with game changing speed, backing up one of the most fragile RB's in the league, with an injured starting QB, against one of the worst run D's in the league. I've spoken about Huggins before. I fully expect him to be the most sought after free agent once Sunday's games are over. Save your FAAB money, and pick him up now.
Final Stats: 10 carries, 4 receptions, 128 yards, 1 TD.
Week 1 Wide Receivers:
Sam Hurd, Dallas;
I didn't say Dallas wouldn't score at all. I did say Witten and Austin would be covered. Bank on this game starting with a long attempt against a questionable safety, landing in the hands of Sam Hurd as he will be open and this is the only kind of pass he can catch, and him taking it to the house.
Final Stats: 2 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD.
Danny Amendola, St. Louis;
He's formed a great chemistry with Bradford over this preseason, and is against an over-rated Arizona Pass D. Even if Bradford only throws 15 times, 10 of them will be in this kids direction.
Final Stats: 8 receptions, 89 yards.
Brian Hartline, Miami
Buffalo's secondary isn't fast enough to catch up with this kid. At some point, they'll let Henne toss one deep for fun. It's going to Hartline.
Final Stats: 4 receptions, 93 yards, 1 TD.
Week 1 Waiver Wire Quarterbacks;
Matt Hasselback;
List of QB's with a higher ownership percentage that this former all-pro;
Matt Cassel
Sam Bradford
Jason Campbell
Big Ben Roethlesburger.
C'mon guys....someone pick this guy up. He's one of the least owned QB's out there, with an amazingly soft schedule, that starts week 1 against a Niners club that is sure to force the pass in the second half. If Kevin Kolb is your starter, you will be better off here than watching him throw 3 INT's against Green Bay.
Final stats: 24 for 36, 287 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
Matt Stafford:
There are a host of QB's you should consider sitting in lieu of Stafford....first and foremost the guy across the field from him. The Lions D may not be first class, but it's enough to force a few bad throws from Cutler. Stafford on the other hand gets to face a banged up Chicago D that will be busy trying to stop the run. Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best are enough reasons to think he'll put up some solid numbers in week 1.
Final Stats: 328 yards, 2 TD's.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Fantasy Football Rookie Wide Receivers: Why They Should Make You Rethink Your Draft
I know your plan. I know it, because it's become everyone's fashionable plan. You're going to take two Wide Receivers in the first three rounds. This year, you may go WR, WR one-two.
I can't say I blame you.
After the top 10 or so WR's, you're staring at a couple of Steve Smith's with potential quarterback issues, a never healthy Anquoin Boldin in a new situation, and a notoriously hit and miss Marques Colston. You are understandably hesitant to make any of these guys your #1 WR. After them, you are left to take gambles on Pierre Garcon, Michael Crabtree, and Devin Aramashouda. It's the equivalent of hitting on 16....you don't want to, but the dealer's showing a King, so you have little choice.
Randy Moss's ADP has gone from 14th to 9th in the past few weeks, supplanting Aaron Rodgers. Let me repeat that....he's supplanted Aaron Rodgers. You're taking a guy that will get 1200 yards receiving and 14 TD's ON THE HIGH END over the consensus favorite (not my favorite, but the consensus favorite) to lead your league in total points. Reggie Wayne never makes it past 14, and with Fitzgerald's injury questions, there's a very good chance Miles Austin and Calvin Johnson won't see #20. This isn't necessarily due to the importance of a top #1 WR. It's because owners are looking to go high on a #2. Boldin as your top option? Meh. But as a #2....Shazam!
Essentially, it boils down to #2 WR being the highest risk position on the draft board. You know that some sleepers will break out, but even if you are stuck with inferior RB's and QB's....at least they are safe. Michael Bush is safe. Felix Jones is safe. Kevin Kolb is safe. And they all have upside....so why gamble on a #2 WR?
Again....I can't say I blame you. But you're still a pussy. And you're very, very, very wrong.
The fantasy landscape is about to once again change. 2010 will destroy a tride and true draft day rule.....don't trust rookie WR's. There is sound logic and reason behind this rule, and it's one that generally I have adhered to for years. I have been fine on missing out on the Moss's/Boldin's of the world. And then...in 2008 changes in the NFL were made...and that rule started to become obsolete. I'm not going to brag here, but I drafted DeSean Jackson in about every league I was in. Yes, he came in as a rookie...but he was one with opportunity. He was a speed heavy WR put into the flanker position of a pass heavy offense. Maybe he didn't have his route running down to Michael Irvin levels....but who else was getting that long TD pass? Hank Baskett? The guy can't even catch the hottest "girl next door" much less 8 TD's in a season. I swear, I know 10 women in real life hotter than Kendra. Two lessons came out of the 2008 Eagles.....Chelsea Handler could be a playboy cover girl with a couple of fakies, and Rookie WR's that have an opportunity to best use their specific skill set can end up being solid #2 WR's.
The 2010 NFL draft saw the deepest WR class in recent history. Phenomenal athletes, polished route runners, and guys with hands stickier than your vintage playboy mag were taken unreasonably low due to the influx of talent. There were some undrafted mega-finds out there as well. Add that to the fact that the NFL has become increasingly pass heavy, yet has a severe shortage of quality WR's....and SHAZAM! Ability is meeting opportunity.
Now this does not mean you should be reaching for Golden Tate in round 7 of your draft. Hell....you shouldn't be drafting Golden Tate at all. (Sorry Seahawk fans....but your passing game is going to take some time to develop.) However, there are a ton of late finds out there worth your attention. And with that, I bring you you're 2010 draft guide to rookie WR's.
Guys You Should Definitely Be Drafting;
Mardy Gilyard; St. Louis.
This is an absolutely fantastic scenario. I l-o-v-e love him. At Cincy, he spent 6 months living out of his car waiting out academic ineligibility. That's a tough kid to break. The other guy at the top of this list quit the fucking team, and he probably had a bed to sleep on. Mardy the one man party was deep on the depth chart until Donnie Avery went down for the season. This lithe six footer was a TERRIBLE fit for the slot. But now....now he's a flanker, meaning instead of relying on strength (which he has none of) to beat coverage off the line, he can shake and shimmy his way to 1100 yards and 9 TD's. I know....you're worried about Bradford. And there is great reason to be. But look at it this way.....Bradford won't be able to make NFL reads just yet. That means he'll be looking for one, maybe two options every time he drops back to pass. You know who that first option is?
Gilyard. Bank on it. And look at that schedule....it's screaming breakout passing game. You need to draft Gilyard, because you need him week 1 against AZ when he turns some heads with 6 grabs for 70 yards and Sam Bradford's first ever TD connection with Gilyard. That should be the first of many for years to come.
Mike Williams: Tampa Bay.
Look...you've already read about this kid. He's got a shakey past, but he's worked his ass off in camp, and he's the favorite target of every quarterback on that roster. At 6'2", 220, he's got size. He's got great hands. He has tremendous burst, shimmy and shake, leaving NFL corners holding their jocks after he receives the ball. I hate comparisons to all time greats.....but this guy is Michael Irvin without the prostitutes and drug problems. He'll have plenty of time to fuck up his life later, but this year, he's a fantastic 9th/10th round pick.
Brandon LaFell: Carolina.
Now in all honesty if you HAVE to pick 1 WR in this years draft, it shouldn't be Brandon LaFell. It should be Dwayne Jarret. But noone will draft Jarret, making him FAAB available. Prospect hounds will draft LaFell.
LaFell is in contention for the #2 spot in Carolina, given the oft-injured Jarret a run for his money. He was considered one of the best overall athletes in the draft, but the combine performances (aka...40 times) of a few other prospects ultimately hurt his NFL draft value. That said, any other year he would have been the #1 WR off the board. He's got great hands, plays hurt, and is MORE than willing to grab that ball over the middle. Plus he has decent size (6' 2", 210) and uses it to do a great job of beating smaller cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage. That's the key to succeeding as an X receiver, which is likely where he'll line up most games. Guys like that quickly become favorite targets of young quarterbacks just trying to get that first down. While Carolina is likely going to run, run, run every time they get inside the 20, on the occassions they do pass, I see this kid getting the look. His schedule won't allow him the chance to be a week to week stud, but instead of drafting Mike Sims-Walker in round 6, I'll take LaFell in round 14 for the same production.
Jacoby Ford: Oakland.
Didn't you swear you just put down your beer on the kitchen counter 5 seconds ago? How did it end up in the dining room? No...you're not drunk. It's just Jacoby Ford fucking with you. He ran from Oakland, moved his atoms at super speed allowing him to pass through solid matter, grabbed your beer and moved it, and got back in time to laugh his ass off at you.
I understand that Oakland is chock-fulla burners that can't catch at WR, but this guy makes CJ Spiller look like Mike Alstott. The reports are his 4.28 40 time at the combine doesn't reflect how fast he actually is. He actually has a faster game speed. That's Deion Sanders fast. He doesn't run great routes, which is a problem for me. But with Chaz Schillens hurt, Johnny Lee Higgins sucking, and Derrius Heyward Bay still busy counting his first round signing bonus, he might be a threat out of necessity. He's spent all training camp blowing away a highly underrated Oakland secondary, so he'll get his looks. And that schedule....it's one that makes dreams happen. The first four games are Tennessee, St. Louis, Arizona, and Houston. These are shitty defenses with offenses that force deep throws late in the game. Mmmmmm....tasty.
Save Some FAAB Money For These Guys;
Dez Bryant
Look...I know all the negatives. His speed is being questioned. He has a shitty attitude. He forgot his running shoes preventing him from giving a full work out at the NFL combine.
Think about that.....the major criticisms of this guy are that he may be a flakey, prima-donna malcontent. What top NFL WR is NOT a flakey, prima-donna malcontent? The question is....does he work hard.
Yes. All reports out of the Cowboy camp state that he is a tireless machine full of highlight reel catches. Here's a link for you.
http://mvn.com/2010/07/31/cowboys-wide-receiver-dez-bryant-out-4-6-weeks/
Now Dez will not be useful to you for the first six weeks of the regular season or so. In fact, I strongly believe most owners will get frustrated with him by week 8. That's when you pounce. Right now, he's hurt, and he's out of shape. His injury exacerbates his inability to run 2 plays in a row at full speed. Plus the Dallas O-line will spend the first few weeks getting over their preseason aches and sprains. But he should start showing flashes of ability around week 5 against Tennessee. The real value here starts in week 10. Dallas has a string of NY, Detroit, New Orleans, Indy, Philly, the Redskins....and a beautiful week 16 fantasy championship game matchup against the Cardinals. He'll be playing in the X WR spot by then (Split-end, whatever you want to call it) meaning he'll have some deep slant routes to pair up with some medium length posts. He has the ability to separate from the one guy on opposing defenses NOT covering Miles Austin by that point. You'll want him in your lineup for a string of 75-125 yard games with some over the middle acrobatic catches and 15 yard TD's.
Jason Shipley; Cincinatti
Now, the reason I say Shipley is a FAAB money guy, is because he's likely to play the roll of possession receiver on a run first team with a reasonably tough schedule. Skip him weeks 1 and 2 against NE and Baltimore. But in week 3, I think it's possible that Palmer starts tuning out OchoCinco and Owens, and passes the ball to a guy that can actually catch. The touch matchups actually HELP Shipley's cause, because Cincy is likely to have to throw more than they want, and OchoCinco and TO will be on lock down. They will get their highlight reel grabs, but the real chain mover here is Shipley. Remember Chris Henry when he was healthy? This guy ain't him. Not even close. But he'll get some looks, and haul in the passes when he does.
By the way....while I'm in Cincy....why the fuck are you people considering #85 in round 4, and leaving TO til' round 10? Do you really think OchoCinco is that much better? Do you really think that TO's stats last year were about his ability as opposed to his quarterback? Don't get me wrong....I don't love either of them. But for two guys that will put up similar stats, the discrepancy on the draft board is unforgivable. One of them is over priced, the other is a steal. I leave it to you to figure out which is which.
Demaryius Thomas; Denver.
His injury is keeping him off the must draft list. He may end up requiring further surgery on his foot if it doesn't heal. I actually think that's a likely scenario. However, if it does heal....lets just say that as of today Eddie Royal has a total of 2 preseason catches for 17 yards.
Somebody's gotta catch the ball. Denver will do it's best to run, but with Moreno's hammy....they may find it tough. Plus, that defense is gonna SUUUUUCK without Mike Nolan. They sucked last year, they just beat up on crappy conference cornerbacks. They will be forced to throw, and someone will be forced to catch, and that someone is this 6'3" BEAST of a wideout.
Eric Decker; Denver.
If Brandon Lloyd can't start the season, he moves up to a must draft. I like him more than Thomas. Hands, hands, hands, hands, hands. Great slot potential for this kid. Without a doubt the best hands in the draft. He doesn't have the physical tools that Thomas does, but Denver won't be looking to use him as the deep threat Thomas is. He is cut in the possession receiver mold. He hasn't worked with the first team yet, but he's Quinn's favorite target. Once again....shitty quarterbacks love guys that can catch, and this kid can catch. He's a chain mover with endzone potential. If he gets the nod as the #3 receiver, grab him quick.
Stephen Williams; Arizona.
I've written about Williams before. He is huge. He is fast. He is an undrafted WR with something to prove. He is eating up preseason secondaries, making great adjustments to catch the ball, and beating guys on the outside constantly. It's not hard to think that Breaston, Doucet, and Fitzgerald may miss some games with injury, and when they do.....he will establish a full time job at WR.
Keep Him On The Watch List;
Damian Williams; Tennessee
If you get word he's got a starting job, swoop in and grab him. He is an elite route runner, and while he doesn't have the upside of many Rookie WR's, he is probably the most NFL ready. He'll be an explosive kick returner with unnatural ability and his good hands/speed/understanding of the game make me high on him, but his opportunity is lacking. But if he gets in that Flanker spot that Nate Washington is clogging up....watch out.
Taylor Price; NE.
Right now, all the right things are being said about Price. He's not super fast, (4.4 40) but he's fast enough. He has incredible acceleration, and he's big enough at 6' 210 to beat some guys off the line in the Flanker Spot. He will likely only be the 4th option on the field at any given time, but his position will give him some real matchup advantages against a Man-Zone. Those games....80 yards and a TD.
I can't say I blame you.
After the top 10 or so WR's, you're staring at a couple of Steve Smith's with potential quarterback issues, a never healthy Anquoin Boldin in a new situation, and a notoriously hit and miss Marques Colston. You are understandably hesitant to make any of these guys your #1 WR. After them, you are left to take gambles on Pierre Garcon, Michael Crabtree, and Devin Aramashouda. It's the equivalent of hitting on 16....you don't want to, but the dealer's showing a King, so you have little choice.
Randy Moss's ADP has gone from 14th to 9th in the past few weeks, supplanting Aaron Rodgers. Let me repeat that....he's supplanted Aaron Rodgers. You're taking a guy that will get 1200 yards receiving and 14 TD's ON THE HIGH END over the consensus favorite (not my favorite, but the consensus favorite) to lead your league in total points. Reggie Wayne never makes it past 14, and with Fitzgerald's injury questions, there's a very good chance Miles Austin and Calvin Johnson won't see #20. This isn't necessarily due to the importance of a top #1 WR. It's because owners are looking to go high on a #2. Boldin as your top option? Meh. But as a #2....Shazam!
Essentially, it boils down to #2 WR being the highest risk position on the draft board. You know that some sleepers will break out, but even if you are stuck with inferior RB's and QB's....at least they are safe. Michael Bush is safe. Felix Jones is safe. Kevin Kolb is safe. And they all have upside....so why gamble on a #2 WR?
Again....I can't say I blame you. But you're still a pussy. And you're very, very, very wrong.
The fantasy landscape is about to once again change. 2010 will destroy a tride and true draft day rule.....don't trust rookie WR's. There is sound logic and reason behind this rule, and it's one that generally I have adhered to for years. I have been fine on missing out on the Moss's/Boldin's of the world. And then...in 2008 changes in the NFL were made...and that rule started to become obsolete. I'm not going to brag here, but I drafted DeSean Jackson in about every league I was in. Yes, he came in as a rookie...but he was one with opportunity. He was a speed heavy WR put into the flanker position of a pass heavy offense. Maybe he didn't have his route running down to Michael Irvin levels....but who else was getting that long TD pass? Hank Baskett? The guy can't even catch the hottest "girl next door" much less 8 TD's in a season. I swear, I know 10 women in real life hotter than Kendra. Two lessons came out of the 2008 Eagles.....Chelsea Handler could be a playboy cover girl with a couple of fakies, and Rookie WR's that have an opportunity to best use their specific skill set can end up being solid #2 WR's.
The 2010 NFL draft saw the deepest WR class in recent history. Phenomenal athletes, polished route runners, and guys with hands stickier than your vintage playboy mag were taken unreasonably low due to the influx of talent. There were some undrafted mega-finds out there as well. Add that to the fact that the NFL has become increasingly pass heavy, yet has a severe shortage of quality WR's....and SHAZAM! Ability is meeting opportunity.
Now this does not mean you should be reaching for Golden Tate in round 7 of your draft. Hell....you shouldn't be drafting Golden Tate at all. (Sorry Seahawk fans....but your passing game is going to take some time to develop.) However, there are a ton of late finds out there worth your attention. And with that, I bring you you're 2010 draft guide to rookie WR's.
Guys You Should Definitely Be Drafting;
Mardy Gilyard; St. Louis.
This is an absolutely fantastic scenario. I l-o-v-e love him. At Cincy, he spent 6 months living out of his car waiting out academic ineligibility. That's a tough kid to break. The other guy at the top of this list quit the fucking team, and he probably had a bed to sleep on. Mardy the one man party was deep on the depth chart until Donnie Avery went down for the season. This lithe six footer was a TERRIBLE fit for the slot. But now....now he's a flanker, meaning instead of relying on strength (which he has none of) to beat coverage off the line, he can shake and shimmy his way to 1100 yards and 9 TD's. I know....you're worried about Bradford. And there is great reason to be. But look at it this way.....Bradford won't be able to make NFL reads just yet. That means he'll be looking for one, maybe two options every time he drops back to pass. You know who that first option is?
Gilyard. Bank on it. And look at that schedule....it's screaming breakout passing game. You need to draft Gilyard, because you need him week 1 against AZ when he turns some heads with 6 grabs for 70 yards and Sam Bradford's first ever TD connection with Gilyard. That should be the first of many for years to come.
Mike Williams: Tampa Bay.
Look...you've already read about this kid. He's got a shakey past, but he's worked his ass off in camp, and he's the favorite target of every quarterback on that roster. At 6'2", 220, he's got size. He's got great hands. He has tremendous burst, shimmy and shake, leaving NFL corners holding their jocks after he receives the ball. I hate comparisons to all time greats.....but this guy is Michael Irvin without the prostitutes and drug problems. He'll have plenty of time to fuck up his life later, but this year, he's a fantastic 9th/10th round pick.
Brandon LaFell: Carolina.
Now in all honesty if you HAVE to pick 1 WR in this years draft, it shouldn't be Brandon LaFell. It should be Dwayne Jarret. But noone will draft Jarret, making him FAAB available. Prospect hounds will draft LaFell.
LaFell is in contention for the #2 spot in Carolina, given the oft-injured Jarret a run for his money. He was considered one of the best overall athletes in the draft, but the combine performances (aka...40 times) of a few other prospects ultimately hurt his NFL draft value. That said, any other year he would have been the #1 WR off the board. He's got great hands, plays hurt, and is MORE than willing to grab that ball over the middle. Plus he has decent size (6' 2", 210) and uses it to do a great job of beating smaller cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage. That's the key to succeeding as an X receiver, which is likely where he'll line up most games. Guys like that quickly become favorite targets of young quarterbacks just trying to get that first down. While Carolina is likely going to run, run, run every time they get inside the 20, on the occassions they do pass, I see this kid getting the look. His schedule won't allow him the chance to be a week to week stud, but instead of drafting Mike Sims-Walker in round 6, I'll take LaFell in round 14 for the same production.
Jacoby Ford: Oakland.
Didn't you swear you just put down your beer on the kitchen counter 5 seconds ago? How did it end up in the dining room? No...you're not drunk. It's just Jacoby Ford fucking with you. He ran from Oakland, moved his atoms at super speed allowing him to pass through solid matter, grabbed your beer and moved it, and got back in time to laugh his ass off at you.
I understand that Oakland is chock-fulla burners that can't catch at WR, but this guy makes CJ Spiller look like Mike Alstott. The reports are his 4.28 40 time at the combine doesn't reflect how fast he actually is. He actually has a faster game speed. That's Deion Sanders fast. He doesn't run great routes, which is a problem for me. But with Chaz Schillens hurt, Johnny Lee Higgins sucking, and Derrius Heyward Bay still busy counting his first round signing bonus, he might be a threat out of necessity. He's spent all training camp blowing away a highly underrated Oakland secondary, so he'll get his looks. And that schedule....it's one that makes dreams happen. The first four games are Tennessee, St. Louis, Arizona, and Houston. These are shitty defenses with offenses that force deep throws late in the game. Mmmmmm....tasty.
Save Some FAAB Money For These Guys;
Dez Bryant
Look...I know all the negatives. His speed is being questioned. He has a shitty attitude. He forgot his running shoes preventing him from giving a full work out at the NFL combine.
Think about that.....the major criticisms of this guy are that he may be a flakey, prima-donna malcontent. What top NFL WR is NOT a flakey, prima-donna malcontent? The question is....does he work hard.
Yes. All reports out of the Cowboy camp state that he is a tireless machine full of highlight reel catches. Here's a link for you.
http://mvn.com/2010/07/31/cowboys-wide-receiver-dez-bryant-out-4-6-weeks/
Now Dez will not be useful to you for the first six weeks of the regular season or so. In fact, I strongly believe most owners will get frustrated with him by week 8. That's when you pounce. Right now, he's hurt, and he's out of shape. His injury exacerbates his inability to run 2 plays in a row at full speed. Plus the Dallas O-line will spend the first few weeks getting over their preseason aches and sprains. But he should start showing flashes of ability around week 5 against Tennessee. The real value here starts in week 10. Dallas has a string of NY, Detroit, New Orleans, Indy, Philly, the Redskins....and a beautiful week 16 fantasy championship game matchup against the Cardinals. He'll be playing in the X WR spot by then (Split-end, whatever you want to call it) meaning he'll have some deep slant routes to pair up with some medium length posts. He has the ability to separate from the one guy on opposing defenses NOT covering Miles Austin by that point. You'll want him in your lineup for a string of 75-125 yard games with some over the middle acrobatic catches and 15 yard TD's.
Jason Shipley; Cincinatti
Now, the reason I say Shipley is a FAAB money guy, is because he's likely to play the roll of possession receiver on a run first team with a reasonably tough schedule. Skip him weeks 1 and 2 against NE and Baltimore. But in week 3, I think it's possible that Palmer starts tuning out OchoCinco and Owens, and passes the ball to a guy that can actually catch. The touch matchups actually HELP Shipley's cause, because Cincy is likely to have to throw more than they want, and OchoCinco and TO will be on lock down. They will get their highlight reel grabs, but the real chain mover here is Shipley. Remember Chris Henry when he was healthy? This guy ain't him. Not even close. But he'll get some looks, and haul in the passes when he does.
By the way....while I'm in Cincy....why the fuck are you people considering #85 in round 4, and leaving TO til' round 10? Do you really think OchoCinco is that much better? Do you really think that TO's stats last year were about his ability as opposed to his quarterback? Don't get me wrong....I don't love either of them. But for two guys that will put up similar stats, the discrepancy on the draft board is unforgivable. One of them is over priced, the other is a steal. I leave it to you to figure out which is which.
Demaryius Thomas; Denver.
His injury is keeping him off the must draft list. He may end up requiring further surgery on his foot if it doesn't heal. I actually think that's a likely scenario. However, if it does heal....lets just say that as of today Eddie Royal has a total of 2 preseason catches for 17 yards.
Somebody's gotta catch the ball. Denver will do it's best to run, but with Moreno's hammy....they may find it tough. Plus, that defense is gonna SUUUUUCK without Mike Nolan. They sucked last year, they just beat up on crappy conference cornerbacks. They will be forced to throw, and someone will be forced to catch, and that someone is this 6'3" BEAST of a wideout.
Eric Decker; Denver.
If Brandon Lloyd can't start the season, he moves up to a must draft. I like him more than Thomas. Hands, hands, hands, hands, hands. Great slot potential for this kid. Without a doubt the best hands in the draft. He doesn't have the physical tools that Thomas does, but Denver won't be looking to use him as the deep threat Thomas is. He is cut in the possession receiver mold. He hasn't worked with the first team yet, but he's Quinn's favorite target. Once again....shitty quarterbacks love guys that can catch, and this kid can catch. He's a chain mover with endzone potential. If he gets the nod as the #3 receiver, grab him quick.
Stephen Williams; Arizona.
I've written about Williams before. He is huge. He is fast. He is an undrafted WR with something to prove. He is eating up preseason secondaries, making great adjustments to catch the ball, and beating guys on the outside constantly. It's not hard to think that Breaston, Doucet, and Fitzgerald may miss some games with injury, and when they do.....he will establish a full time job at WR.
Keep Him On The Watch List;
Damian Williams; Tennessee
If you get word he's got a starting job, swoop in and grab him. He is an elite route runner, and while he doesn't have the upside of many Rookie WR's, he is probably the most NFL ready. He'll be an explosive kick returner with unnatural ability and his good hands/speed/understanding of the game make me high on him, but his opportunity is lacking. But if he gets in that Flanker spot that Nate Washington is clogging up....watch out.
Taylor Price; NE.
Right now, all the right things are being said about Price. He's not super fast, (4.4 40) but he's fast enough. He has incredible acceleration, and he's big enough at 6' 210 to beat some guys off the line in the Flanker Spot. He will likely only be the 4th option on the field at any given time, but his position will give him some real matchup advantages against a Man-Zone. Those games....80 yards and a TD.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Fantasy Football Mean Girls: Overrated Offenses
The last article referenced the classic "ugly duck" movie concept. You know....where the ugly girl suddenly gets hot and becomes prom queen. First of all....I had to amend my last article to include KC. Not that there's alot of "sleepers", but some of their players are highly undervalued. That said....there's another side to this. In all those movies, you had the girl that was the no-holds-barred hottest bitch in the school that was a SHOE IN for prom queen. This girl....while she remained hot....would eventually lose the title as flaws in her personality were discovered.
Now...I know it's ridiculous to think anyone would care about a female's personality, but there's something to be learned here. There are some NFL teams out there with some serious personality flaws, but because they were the equivalent of the girl in middle school that first got breasts, we look past those flaws and they remain hot by reputation.
Stay away from these teams. Not because their players will suck, but because they are overvalued in your draft. You will not get the results you want out of them. You need a list of these teams? You got it.
The Girl That Was Hot Until She Messed With Someone That Ended Up Being a Teenage Witch: Minnesota Vikings.
I haven't seen so many hip-surgeries and headaches since that judge made me do community service in the old folks home. Favre is calling his coach a pussy, and guys are....well....their Twittering. That's just... not what a football team should be doing. Personally I blame everything on Jared Allen cutting his mohawk for his wedding. Much like Samson, Minnesota is nothing without that hair. (Also...he's down to 4 sacks this year. Why? He got married. Tough to sack a guy after you've been neutered.) I'm not going to spend alot of time on these guys, because you know the issues. Favre made that O-line (especially McKinnie) look better that it was. He will not make it more than three weeks before he officially has to stand perfectly still after the snap in order to keep his ankle attached to his body. This would be good news for Berrian. While he battled injuries all year with his hammy, a clean bill of health will not make Favre stop hating him for being a whiney-not-from-the-south little bitch. And all the sudden, Camarillo is getting drafted as a strong #3 receiver (ADP is skyrocketing after the trade) which makes him overvalued as well. 45th receiver off the board? Sure...maybe. Someone's gotta catch the ball. 30th receiver off the board? Seriously? No.
I know what you're thinking...AP is the exception. Well....kinda. Will he be a top 12 back? Absolutely. But don't bank on the removal of Chester Taylor to help. Taylor came in more for increased pass protection, to catch a few balls, and to give AP an occassional breather. You know who that guy is now? AP. His blocking skills have increased, and he's shown that he can catch. This results in three things: he'll catch more passes, (yeeeeaaaahhh!!!) but this may be the year his injury prone ass finally takes too much of a beating. (Boooo.) Plus, the "change of pace" back is now a between the tackles downhill runner. That means AP will get less carries behind Hutchinson, and more bouncing to the outside, behind the vastly overrated McKinnie. (Booooooooooooooo.) Can he do that? Sure. Is that his game? Not really.
Don't get me wrong....he'll be a great back again this year. But instead of combining the upsides of his 1800 yard/14 TD season, (Including a couple 200+ yard games...not likely to happen regularly) and his 1400 yard/18 TD season, I see him doing more of the reverse with a small yards p/carry average. It's still 1400 yards and 14 TD's, (IF he has 16 games in him...which he does not) but it's not what you're expecting.
Wow....I did spend alot of time on these guys. Ok...next....
The Girl That Was Super Hot And Then She Got Overconfident, Dropped Her Boyfriend, Who Started Dating A New Girl That Became EVEN HOTTER!: Indianapolis Colts;
I know....this is heresey. How dare I question the great Peyton Manning and his "best quarterback of all time" title. But just like the St. Louis Rams gave way to age and injury, the Colts run is about to hit a road bump. I am staying away from every Colt on the draft board, save maybe Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown.
The entire offensive line is injured. All of 'em. Now, many "should" be back for the regular season...but they are hurting man. Hurting. None more significant than Jeff Saturday. If Peyton Manning is the CEO of the Colts offense, then Saturday is it's chief operations officer. Actually...screw that....he runs the warehouse. My point is he makes sure all the guys are doing what they are supposed to be doing once the CEO dictates the direction of the company. He just had his knee scoped, and is supposed to be back by week 1. That's a mistake. Scopes aren't a deal breaker for most football players, but most of them don't have to put a tremendous amount of pressure on their thighs and knees to quickly snap a ball and then hold off a 300 lb. nose tackle, or blitzing MLB. Hell....if I'm playing the Colts I am inside blitzing ALLLLLLLLL day. If I know that.....defensive coordinators know that.
During their dominant offensive run, the Colts have lived and died with that offensive line. With all the missed preseason, and all the hobbling on and off the field, I don't trust them. And therefore, I don't trust the Colts. And therefore....I don't trust that running game at all. The fantasy value of Colts running backs has always stemmed from their TD opportunities. There will be less of those now. Let someone else get suckered into that scene...it's not going to work out.
Downgrade Dallas Clark. Seriously. He still wasn't the highest scoring TE last year, and that's when he could run all over and catch 100 balls. Now he needs to block. Not to mention the fact that Gonzalez, Garcon, and Collie would all like to catch a ball every so often.
Reggie Wayne has been the most overrated fantasy WR for years now. He has NEVER been a weekly threat. He has big, huge games, with a couple weeks of nothin' in between. That's about to get worse as Manning has to rely on 3 step drops, and can't chuck it deep as often.
Austin Collie is lining up in both the slot, and the outside. What that means is Gonzelez and Garcon are essentially splitting carries. That makes all of them worth less than their current draft slots. Gonzalez is going late in drafts, or not at all, so his value is relatively spot on. Make no mistake about it, while Collie will be a heavily used 4th man....he's still the 4th man. But the guy I really hate here is Garcon. Look...he'll be a solid #3/#4, with a few good weeks, and some scattered crap weeks. But he's being taken as the 25th WR off the board on average. (ADP of 65, or mid round 5 for most leagues.) He won't produce like a low end #2.
Plus....that schedule is harder than it looks. Oakland's better, Jacksonville is better, Philly's better, Washington's better....they have some tough draws to mix in with the Houstons, and Tennesees. That means more inconsistency from the receiving corp.
The one guy......the ONE guy I would consider drafting is Donald Brown. And that is ONLY because of Addai's concussion, and the fact his ADP is 109....42nd RB off the board. If he gets the majority of the carries, he could end up being a serviceable #2 back, and exceed that draft spot. But think more Marshawn Lynch 2008. Never a hundred yard game and under 10 TD's.
The Girl That Everyone Thought Was Hot Until Her Wig Flew Off/Bra Came Unstuffed When Her Evil Plan To Eliminate The New Hot Girl From The Prom Backfired: Houston Texans.
This is somewhat specific to the passing game.......on top of having one of the easiest pass schedules the world has ever seen in 2009, you have a better chance of being struck by lightening while simultaneously capturing a Bengal Tiger and watching a blockbuster movie that had Paul Giamotti being cast as the Incredible Hulk (Not David Banner....the actual Hulk) than you have of both Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson staying on the field for more than 13 games two years in a row.
The line is intact. Neh...it may be better. Which means more running. Which means less passing. Will this be Jacoby's breakout year? Maybe...but not in the "Reggie Wayne breakout year" fashion. More in the "Walter Johnson" breakout year fashion. And that will take balls away from Johnson, who has yet to break the 10 TD barrier. Move Johnson down your board. (He should at least be behind Moss and Austin.) Keep Jacoby where he is...a low end 3rd WR, and don't even think about drafting Schaub. If you draft Schaub, you better have a great backup. Like...I don't know....Aaron Rodgers. Otherwise, don't do it.
The Overhyped/Overconfident Girl That Was Easily Not As Hot As The New Girl That Transferred: Green Bay Packers.
50 sacks. That's alot of sacks. And your favorite WR in late round 2, early round 3, Greg Jennings, had 4 TD's. That won't change much, because about 1/2 way through 2008 teams said..."Heh...Jennings gets all his TD's by getting behind our defense. Let's not allow him to do that anymore, because he's not that fast, and Donald Driver is not nearly the threat he once was. So we'll double cover Jennings instead" Then he stopped catching TD's. That pattern is here to stay. I realize they had to deal with injuries to their O-Line in '09, but last years whipping boys....Detroit and Chicago.... both made moves to put more pressure on the QB. Plus that schedule included some horrible Pass Defenses. This year, short of a week 2 contest at Buffalo, and a week 6 contest at Miami, those pass D's they are facing have seen alot of improvement. And if you were playing a crappy Buffalo, and a banged up Miami.....wouldn't you run all game? You would? Me too. Therefore, I like Grant to put up similar numbers, but not at the "10th RB off the board" spot he's being drafted in. I see Finley putting up identical numbers, Jennings stuck at 6 TD's, and Driver being much less of a factor. I would look hard at James Jones out of the slot as his talent outweighs his average draft spot, and Rodgers will have alot of hot reads to make, but I would stay away from the rest of these guys.
If you have guys from these teams, you can still trade em. But do it before the season starts, otherwise you won't recover the value you drafted them for.
Now...I know it's ridiculous to think anyone would care about a female's personality, but there's something to be learned here. There are some NFL teams out there with some serious personality flaws, but because they were the equivalent of the girl in middle school that first got breasts, we look past those flaws and they remain hot by reputation.
Stay away from these teams. Not because their players will suck, but because they are overvalued in your draft. You will not get the results you want out of them. You need a list of these teams? You got it.
The Girl That Was Hot Until She Messed With Someone That Ended Up Being a Teenage Witch: Minnesota Vikings.
I haven't seen so many hip-surgeries and headaches since that judge made me do community service in the old folks home. Favre is calling his coach a pussy, and guys are....well....their Twittering. That's just... not what a football team should be doing. Personally I blame everything on Jared Allen cutting his mohawk for his wedding. Much like Samson, Minnesota is nothing without that hair. (Also...he's down to 4 sacks this year. Why? He got married. Tough to sack a guy after you've been neutered.) I'm not going to spend alot of time on these guys, because you know the issues. Favre made that O-line (especially McKinnie) look better that it was. He will not make it more than three weeks before he officially has to stand perfectly still after the snap in order to keep his ankle attached to his body. This would be good news for Berrian. While he battled injuries all year with his hammy, a clean bill of health will not make Favre stop hating him for being a whiney-not-from-the-south little bitch. And all the sudden, Camarillo is getting drafted as a strong #3 receiver (ADP is skyrocketing after the trade) which makes him overvalued as well. 45th receiver off the board? Sure...maybe. Someone's gotta catch the ball. 30th receiver off the board? Seriously? No.
I know what you're thinking...AP is the exception. Well....kinda. Will he be a top 12 back? Absolutely. But don't bank on the removal of Chester Taylor to help. Taylor came in more for increased pass protection, to catch a few balls, and to give AP an occassional breather. You know who that guy is now? AP. His blocking skills have increased, and he's shown that he can catch. This results in three things: he'll catch more passes, (yeeeeaaaahhh!!!) but this may be the year his injury prone ass finally takes too much of a beating. (Boooo.) Plus, the "change of pace" back is now a between the tackles downhill runner. That means AP will get less carries behind Hutchinson, and more bouncing to the outside, behind the vastly overrated McKinnie. (Booooooooooooooo.) Can he do that? Sure. Is that his game? Not really.
Don't get me wrong....he'll be a great back again this year. But instead of combining the upsides of his 1800 yard/14 TD season, (Including a couple 200+ yard games...not likely to happen regularly) and his 1400 yard/18 TD season, I see him doing more of the reverse with a small yards p/carry average. It's still 1400 yards and 14 TD's, (IF he has 16 games in him...which he does not) but it's not what you're expecting.
Wow....I did spend alot of time on these guys. Ok...next....
The Girl That Was Super Hot And Then She Got Overconfident, Dropped Her Boyfriend, Who Started Dating A New Girl That Became EVEN HOTTER!: Indianapolis Colts;
I know....this is heresey. How dare I question the great Peyton Manning and his "best quarterback of all time" title. But just like the St. Louis Rams gave way to age and injury, the Colts run is about to hit a road bump. I am staying away from every Colt on the draft board, save maybe Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown.
The entire offensive line is injured. All of 'em. Now, many "should" be back for the regular season...but they are hurting man. Hurting. None more significant than Jeff Saturday. If Peyton Manning is the CEO of the Colts offense, then Saturday is it's chief operations officer. Actually...screw that....he runs the warehouse. My point is he makes sure all the guys are doing what they are supposed to be doing once the CEO dictates the direction of the company. He just had his knee scoped, and is supposed to be back by week 1. That's a mistake. Scopes aren't a deal breaker for most football players, but most of them don't have to put a tremendous amount of pressure on their thighs and knees to quickly snap a ball and then hold off a 300 lb. nose tackle, or blitzing MLB. Hell....if I'm playing the Colts I am inside blitzing ALLLLLLLLL day. If I know that.....defensive coordinators know that.
During their dominant offensive run, the Colts have lived and died with that offensive line. With all the missed preseason, and all the hobbling on and off the field, I don't trust them. And therefore, I don't trust the Colts. And therefore....I don't trust that running game at all. The fantasy value of Colts running backs has always stemmed from their TD opportunities. There will be less of those now. Let someone else get suckered into that scene...it's not going to work out.
Downgrade Dallas Clark. Seriously. He still wasn't the highest scoring TE last year, and that's when he could run all over and catch 100 balls. Now he needs to block. Not to mention the fact that Gonzalez, Garcon, and Collie would all like to catch a ball every so often.
Reggie Wayne has been the most overrated fantasy WR for years now. He has NEVER been a weekly threat. He has big, huge games, with a couple weeks of nothin' in between. That's about to get worse as Manning has to rely on 3 step drops, and can't chuck it deep as often.
Austin Collie is lining up in both the slot, and the outside. What that means is Gonzelez and Garcon are essentially splitting carries. That makes all of them worth less than their current draft slots. Gonzalez is going late in drafts, or not at all, so his value is relatively spot on. Make no mistake about it, while Collie will be a heavily used 4th man....he's still the 4th man. But the guy I really hate here is Garcon. Look...he'll be a solid #3/#4, with a few good weeks, and some scattered crap weeks. But he's being taken as the 25th WR off the board on average. (ADP of 65, or mid round 5 for most leagues.) He won't produce like a low end #2.
Plus....that schedule is harder than it looks. Oakland's better, Jacksonville is better, Philly's better, Washington's better....they have some tough draws to mix in with the Houstons, and Tennesees. That means more inconsistency from the receiving corp.
The one guy......the ONE guy I would consider drafting is Donald Brown. And that is ONLY because of Addai's concussion, and the fact his ADP is 109....42nd RB off the board. If he gets the majority of the carries, he could end up being a serviceable #2 back, and exceed that draft spot. But think more Marshawn Lynch 2008. Never a hundred yard game and under 10 TD's.
The Girl That Everyone Thought Was Hot Until Her Wig Flew Off/Bra Came Unstuffed When Her Evil Plan To Eliminate The New Hot Girl From The Prom Backfired: Houston Texans.
This is somewhat specific to the passing game.......on top of having one of the easiest pass schedules the world has ever seen in 2009, you have a better chance of being struck by lightening while simultaneously capturing a Bengal Tiger and watching a blockbuster movie that had Paul Giamotti being cast as the Incredible Hulk (Not David Banner....the actual Hulk) than you have of both Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson staying on the field for more than 13 games two years in a row.
The line is intact. Neh...it may be better. Which means more running. Which means less passing. Will this be Jacoby's breakout year? Maybe...but not in the "Reggie Wayne breakout year" fashion. More in the "Walter Johnson" breakout year fashion. And that will take balls away from Johnson, who has yet to break the 10 TD barrier. Move Johnson down your board. (He should at least be behind Moss and Austin.) Keep Jacoby where he is...a low end 3rd WR, and don't even think about drafting Schaub. If you draft Schaub, you better have a great backup. Like...I don't know....Aaron Rodgers. Otherwise, don't do it.
The Overhyped/Overconfident Girl That Was Easily Not As Hot As The New Girl That Transferred: Green Bay Packers.
50 sacks. That's alot of sacks. And your favorite WR in late round 2, early round 3, Greg Jennings, had 4 TD's. That won't change much, because about 1/2 way through 2008 teams said..."Heh...Jennings gets all his TD's by getting behind our defense. Let's not allow him to do that anymore, because he's not that fast, and Donald Driver is not nearly the threat he once was. So we'll double cover Jennings instead" Then he stopped catching TD's. That pattern is here to stay. I realize they had to deal with injuries to their O-Line in '09, but last years whipping boys....Detroit and Chicago.... both made moves to put more pressure on the QB. Plus that schedule included some horrible Pass Defenses. This year, short of a week 2 contest at Buffalo, and a week 6 contest at Miami, those pass D's they are facing have seen alot of improvement. And if you were playing a crappy Buffalo, and a banged up Miami.....wouldn't you run all game? You would? Me too. Therefore, I like Grant to put up similar numbers, but not at the "10th RB off the board" spot he's being drafted in. I see Finley putting up identical numbers, Jennings stuck at 6 TD's, and Driver being much less of a factor. I would look hard at James Jones out of the slot as his talent outweighs his average draft spot, and Rodgers will have alot of hot reads to make, but I would stay away from the rest of these guys.
If you have guys from these teams, you can still trade em. But do it before the season starts, otherwise you won't recover the value you drafted them for.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Fantasy Football Prom Queens: The NFL Equivalent of Rachel Leigh Cook
You know that "sneaky hot" girl you work/go to school/see at the bus-stop every day? The one that....if she just lost the glasses, found a cream rinse, and grabbed an inexpensive but form fitting shirt from H&M...she'd be dynamite? That girl is a classic Rachel Leigh Cook. You know she can be hot if she just made a few moves, but you continually ignore her. So you know what happens? Freddie Prinze Jr. snaps her up, she takes down the ponytail, and you are left kicking yourself.
In the same way, every year there seems to be a team that produces a multitude of fantasy options that comes out of nowhere. You realize that the pieces are there. You see the potential from far away...but some bad reputation skews your vision as they get closer. Maybe they've had a bad offensive line for years. Maybe they've always been a defense first team. Maybe there's just way too many things that have to go right for it to work out. But ask yourself... did you ever DREAM that Steve Breaston would have such an impact on your season in 2008? Did you give any thought to grabbing Sidney Rice in the mid-rounds of your draft in 2009? Wes Welker in 2007, Marion Barber in 2006.....the list goes on. You knew that under all that tom-boy exterior was a hot chick with huge tits. Maybe even one that equated sleeping with alot of dudes as evidence she was hot, and desperately wanted the approval of their peers...or even better...their fathers.
I bring to you this years new hotties. The teams that are ready to go from the Math Club to the Prom. Move the stars up on your draft board, and target there unheard of options in the late round, because a third wide-receiver from these teams is the equivalent of a pity-hand-job to get you off their backs. It may not be exactly what you wanted, but man...it still feels good.
Tampa Bay: Some Kind of Wonderful.
Think of the Bucs as Mary Stuart Masterson. "All I need is you, me, and my drums." She goes from short haired tom-boy to...well...she's still Mary Stuart Masterson. Not super hot, but she's showing cleavage, and she's completely willing to drink your man-juice like it was a potion for reviving her career. Good enough.
Tampa is still kinda ugly. Freeman will still toss a boat load of INT's this season. But there is alot of reason to be optimistic. I'm starting with the offensive line. There are no major changes, but these guys are young. But no longer toooo young. They are...well...breakout stage young. Add in that last year they battled injury issues with their center, and had no depth. They've added some depth in the draft, and may be prime to take a major step forward. Did you see them against Miami? Not too shabby.
Then...check out the new game plan. Last year, the team only averaged 25 running attempts a game. That's going to change...although not by much. Greg Olsen steps in and brings a version of the Steve Mariucci West Coast Offense in with him. Or should I say, the John Gruden Superbowl winning offensive style. However, given the age of the starters, the west coast will take some time to develop. And remember...it's a Mariucci west coast. That means there will be enough running and passing to go around.
So we have a better line, and a more suitable game plan. Add an improved defense that will keep the offense closer to the goal line, and all we need is offensive talent. I want you to take a very good, very hard look at Freeman. His thumb will be fine by the start of the season. He's got great mobility. He's got a massive arm. He has a boat load of potential, that under the right coach with the right system, he could be pretty damn good. On the downside....his accuracy leaves much to be desired. He will struggle at times. he will still throw an interception or two a game. But make no mistake about it....he's going to score. He's still going to have a few 250-300 yard gems with 2-3 TD's and 50 yards on the ground. For all of you that are eyeing Vince Young, or Matt Moore late in the draft...Freeman is better. His short lived pre-season stat line? 4 for 4, 53 yards. Not bad. Overall, the kids a playmaker.
And now he's surrounded by other playmakers.
Have you seen Mike Williams in pre-season? Mike Williams will be the highest impact rookie in 2010. There...I said it. F you Ryan Mathews. I didn't want you in my draft anyway. Williams will be this teams flanker. So basically, he'll have DeSean Jackson's position in a relatively similar offense with a quarterback that's equivalent to Donovan McNabb, with more speed and less ability to read a defense. Except Williams is bigger with better hands. I'll take it.
The next best receiver? Time to move Kellen Winslow up your depth chart. This offense is made for TE's running slot routes and outside flares. He'll get plenty of targets from his young QB.
Lastly, the running game. Do you remember last year in the first four weeks, when you had to check the stat sheet three times because you SWEAR you thought it said that 100 yard back was Cadillac Williams, but...but it just couldn't be! Could it? Yup...it was. But he's not even the best part of this offense. The best part is Kareem Huggins. He's got 50 yards on the ground in each of his first 2 preseason games. Huggins is a small back...5'9"...so he probably won't take a full time roll. That said...shit this kid is fast. Fast and built like he's auditioning for a 1993 Janet Jackson video. The rookie out of Hofstra ran a 4.28 40 at the combine, and he's already supplanted Ward on the depth chart. Think Felix Jones before he was exposed to whatever type of radiation turns bone into the plastic they use to make tampon applicators. Don't believe me? Just follow the link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bees8RMFQvY
And all that speed has translated onto the field. Check out this run against Miami: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d819c194d
Point is....he could be special. And if you draft them wisely, so can the Tampa Bay Bucs for your fantasy team.
Baltimore Ravens: She's All That.
"What is this, some sort of dork outreach program?" Okay...so you can see the potential is there. The new shiny WR, the third year "breakout ready" quarterback, the running game....the pieces are there.
So why are you hesitating?
Ohhhhhh....I forgot. Their a defensive minded team. They don't care about offense. Just like Rachel Leigh Cook didn't give a shit about what she looked like. She had an image she wanted to convey, and she held onto it. That is, until the super popular, wicked hot Freddie Prinze Jr. came a knockin'....
Consider the Ravens ready for the prom. And after the prom they will give you head. In the back of the limo. While your friends watch. And then they'll do them too. You think their a defensive minded team that will grind the ball? Really?
Tell that to offensive guru Cam Cameron. Or the new Offensive Consultant Al Saunders. Or the new Quarterback coach Jim Zorn. You may have heard of these guys. They are bona-fuckin-fide offensive star makers, and they're all under one cold weather roof. Flacco has been working with Zorn, and practicing his delivery with MLB pitching coaches. I'm pretty sure the Ravens are seeing to it that he's getting swedish massages nightly from Angelina Jolie's strong and capable hands, Emeril Lagasse spoon feeds him his high protein diet, and every time he needs to drop a brown biscuit, Art Modell rises from the dead to wipe his ass for him.
This is not your Daddy's Ravens. Let me ask you...if you planned on grinding out the running game every week....would you have Willis McGahee on the trade block? I mean...wouldn't you at least keep him around even if you were going to move him on the depth chart?
You wouldn't. And neither would they. They are going to throw. And they will run. And they will look like the Harlem Globetrotters doing it in the AFC North. So get confident with Rice. Put McLain back on the depth chart, as the new FB McLaughlin looks good enough to handle full time front blocker duty. McLain will handle the goal line. And you want some deep RB sleepers? Try Jalen Parmele, who's been a stand out so far on special teams, and has lead the Ravens in carries over the preseason. (You read that correctly....he's gotten more carries than Ray Rice.) And don't count out Curtis Steele at RB. This shifty rookie may be taking some carries between the tackles for the blackbirds, and will likely take over Rice's roll if there is an injury.
As far as the passing game, Flacco is a solid choice for a breakout season. I still wouldn't rank him any higher than 9....but he may be the backup that ends up winning your league. When Anquoin Boldin is healthy, he'll have some great games. He's going very low right now. Late #2, early #3 WR. He's better than that. How Brandon Marshall can go in the second round, and Boldin continually falls to the fourth I will never understand.
And that TE will be a fantastic steal with your last pick of the draft. No...not Todd Heap. That POS is DOA. I'm talking about rookie TE Dennis Pitta. This kid's been targeted four times the amount Heap has, and has hauled in five times the amount of catches. He could easily turn in to a bankable redzone threat with McGehee out of the picture.
Of course.....like all "out of nowhere" teams, there's there are a couple of WR's that's not getting drafted at all, that you need to pick up late. Wait...who just said Mark Clayton? I swear if I hear anyone say Mark Clayton I will go to the trunk of my car, grab the driver that my ex-wife gave me out of my golf bag, and bash your fucking skull in with it. I've been dying to break that thing anyway. No fuck-tard....Donte Stallworth, who will be the official HR threat for the team, and has shown at points in his career he can absolutely excel in that position....and Demetrius Williams. At some point, Boldin will get hurt. Hell....Mason is already hurt. Demetrius Williams will get the call, and when he does, this 6' 200 lb. slot receiver may never hit the bench again. He's done decent with the opportunities he's had so far, and now that the rest of his team is competent, I expect him to take it to the next step. (Meaning solid 3rd WR, at minimum.)
Oakland Raiders: Crappy Melissa-Joan Hart movie that I'm not going to waste my time looking the name up because you won't recognize it anyway.
So in this movie, Melissa-Joan Hart has to make-over some guy up to take to the prom, and he ends up getting a lead roll on Entourage. No...you don't want to do him...but he's still pretty cool.
That sums up your Oakland Raiders. I know...they suck. And they still may suck. Jason Campbell is not Peyton Manning.
But as you've read countless times....he's not Jamarcus "Most Kickers Can Put Up Higher QB Ratings Than Me" Russel either. So instead of putting 9-10 guys in the box, most teams may actually only put 7 or 8 there. That's a step up. The offensive line is moving to more of a power-man blocking scheme as opposed to the zone blocking scheme they could not execute, and gets bolstered by rookies Smith and Vallejo. A pluthera of defensive additions will give the offense more minutes on the field. So who benefits the most? Well...you. If you draft some Raiders.
Jason Campbell may have his best season yet. No...he will not take you to a fantasy championship. He's still a backup. But he may be a damn good backup.
With Hugh Jackson at the helm, the running game is sure to get a boost. All 245 pounds of Michael Bush should see plenty of carries this season. If the preseason is any indication, he should be getting plenty of passes thrown his way as well. And if he's not being checked down to....Zach Miller will be.
Note that I didn't mention Darren McFadden. That is because he sucks. And his sore hammy will make him suckier. Move Bush up. Don't draft McFadden.
Of course all this will be used to set up the big play. And who will be the recipient of that big play? Darrius Heyward-Bey? Johnny-Lee Higgins? Chaz Schillins? Nope. They will contribute, but the guy you want to target late is Louis Murphy. I think the reason people disregard him is because of his ordinary sounding name. But that just makes him less likely to be a serial killer, not less likely to catch passes. He's been the most successful deep threat for Oakland to date, and I like him to carry that into a new role that should supply you with 1100 yards, and 9 TD's this season.
By the way....if you're looking for a sleeper defense....look no further. This is an entirely revamped front 7, complete with pash rushing DE's, and new and improved linebacker play. The Pass D was already good, but now that they can rush occasionally and stop the run, I'm looking at them to be a top 10 D this year.
Lastly, I would like to leave you with the Chicago Bears. But I'm not going to do a full review, because you can't turn on your computer without hearing about Mike Martz's and Mike Tice's influence. Look...Aramashoua will be very good in the slot. Knox will get a bunch of deep balls and nothing else. Cutler is the most talented QB Martz ever worked with. Matt Forte wil get about 65% of the carries, and will be closer to 3.9 yards a game than 3.5, and add in a few receptions every game. Devon Hester is not a #1, and Greg Olson will disappear. But as of right now, all of these guys are being drafted right where they should be, and I don't see alot of surprises, so I'll leave them alone.
**************LATE AMENDMENT***************
Wow....completely forgot about KC. I'll just say this....their draft and Romeo Crennel should upgrade their defense, so the offense should get more minutes on the field. Not too much has changed on their O-Line...but like Tampa Bay, it's a very young line that should have a couple guys ready to have "break out" seasons. Charlie Weiss takes over the offense, which means run, run, run, deep pass, run, run, deep pass.
I can't believe that Jamaal Charles went from automatic first rounder to mid-late third rounder because of Thomas Jones Presence. Starter Shmarter. He's the" #1" back in that offense like "Phantom Mentace" was the first Star Wars. It's slower, cornier, more predictable than "A New Hope"....and let's face it....it's really not the first Star Wars. Will Thomas Jones take some goal line carries away? Sure. Will he get the ball four the first 4 carries? Probably. But that said, will his carries be limited to around 8-12 times a game on average? You betcha. Will KC run the ball 30 times a game giving Charles between 15-20 carries? Absolutely. Count on him for a top 12 finish in your RB scoring....which should make him a low #1 back on the draft board. Getting him as a mid #2 is a discount.
On the passing end.....I really expect both Bowe and Cassel to rebound. I don't see #1 status for Cassel, but I do see 3700 yards and 25 TD's while drastically cutting down on the INT's. (14-17.) Essentially he's 2009 Jay Cutler with less INT's. That's a solid #2 QB with a pretty easy schedule, making him a great compliment to your #1. He's undrafted in most leagues, which gives you a great reason to postpone the pick of a #2 QB. Bowe however is being drafted right around where he belongs. Third, 4th round as a #2 receiver. I like him better than several of the guys he's being drafted behind (Steve Smith, OchoCinco, Hakeem Nicks) but I'm not ready to call him a sure fire #1 yet because I believe he'll be inconsistent. If KC can run the ball, they will.
As far as deep sleepers go, I'm not seeing any. I really like Maoki at TE, and think he'll be a time share (with Leonard Pope) pass catching threat much like Chris Cooley this year. He'll be a very usable #2 TE, that is great for covering your bye-weeks and Vernon Davis injuries. (It WILL happen.) That said, he's someone to watch very carefully....not draft. Same for McCluster......he'll be a nightmare for some defenses, but he won't have weekly use.
Now you're wondering....if these teams are ready to be named prom queen...who are the ones that were SUPPOSED to be prom queen, only to come in second and have to storm out after this major blow to their popularity?
Answers coming soon kids. Very soon.
In the same way, every year there seems to be a team that produces a multitude of fantasy options that comes out of nowhere. You realize that the pieces are there. You see the potential from far away...but some bad reputation skews your vision as they get closer. Maybe they've had a bad offensive line for years. Maybe they've always been a defense first team. Maybe there's just way too many things that have to go right for it to work out. But ask yourself... did you ever DREAM that Steve Breaston would have such an impact on your season in 2008? Did you give any thought to grabbing Sidney Rice in the mid-rounds of your draft in 2009? Wes Welker in 2007, Marion Barber in 2006.....the list goes on. You knew that under all that tom-boy exterior was a hot chick with huge tits. Maybe even one that equated sleeping with alot of dudes as evidence she was hot, and desperately wanted the approval of their peers...or even better...their fathers.
I bring to you this years new hotties. The teams that are ready to go from the Math Club to the Prom. Move the stars up on your draft board, and target there unheard of options in the late round, because a third wide-receiver from these teams is the equivalent of a pity-hand-job to get you off their backs. It may not be exactly what you wanted, but man...it still feels good.
Tampa Bay: Some Kind of Wonderful.
Think of the Bucs as Mary Stuart Masterson. "All I need is you, me, and my drums." She goes from short haired tom-boy to...well...she's still Mary Stuart Masterson. Not super hot, but she's showing cleavage, and she's completely willing to drink your man-juice like it was a potion for reviving her career. Good enough.
Tampa is still kinda ugly. Freeman will still toss a boat load of INT's this season. But there is alot of reason to be optimistic. I'm starting with the offensive line. There are no major changes, but these guys are young. But no longer toooo young. They are...well...breakout stage young. Add in that last year they battled injury issues with their center, and had no depth. They've added some depth in the draft, and may be prime to take a major step forward. Did you see them against Miami? Not too shabby.
Then...check out the new game plan. Last year, the team only averaged 25 running attempts a game. That's going to change...although not by much. Greg Olsen steps in and brings a version of the Steve Mariucci West Coast Offense in with him. Or should I say, the John Gruden Superbowl winning offensive style. However, given the age of the starters, the west coast will take some time to develop. And remember...it's a Mariucci west coast. That means there will be enough running and passing to go around.
So we have a better line, and a more suitable game plan. Add an improved defense that will keep the offense closer to the goal line, and all we need is offensive talent. I want you to take a very good, very hard look at Freeman. His thumb will be fine by the start of the season. He's got great mobility. He's got a massive arm. He has a boat load of potential, that under the right coach with the right system, he could be pretty damn good. On the downside....his accuracy leaves much to be desired. He will struggle at times. he will still throw an interception or two a game. But make no mistake about it....he's going to score. He's still going to have a few 250-300 yard gems with 2-3 TD's and 50 yards on the ground. For all of you that are eyeing Vince Young, or Matt Moore late in the draft...Freeman is better. His short lived pre-season stat line? 4 for 4, 53 yards. Not bad. Overall, the kids a playmaker.
And now he's surrounded by other playmakers.
Have you seen Mike Williams in pre-season? Mike Williams will be the highest impact rookie in 2010. There...I said it. F you Ryan Mathews. I didn't want you in my draft anyway. Williams will be this teams flanker. So basically, he'll have DeSean Jackson's position in a relatively similar offense with a quarterback that's equivalent to Donovan McNabb, with more speed and less ability to read a defense. Except Williams is bigger with better hands. I'll take it.
The next best receiver? Time to move Kellen Winslow up your depth chart. This offense is made for TE's running slot routes and outside flares. He'll get plenty of targets from his young QB.
Lastly, the running game. Do you remember last year in the first four weeks, when you had to check the stat sheet three times because you SWEAR you thought it said that 100 yard back was Cadillac Williams, but...but it just couldn't be! Could it? Yup...it was. But he's not even the best part of this offense. The best part is Kareem Huggins. He's got 50 yards on the ground in each of his first 2 preseason games. Huggins is a small back...5'9"...so he probably won't take a full time roll. That said...shit this kid is fast. Fast and built like he's auditioning for a 1993 Janet Jackson video. The rookie out of Hofstra ran a 4.28 40 at the combine, and he's already supplanted Ward on the depth chart. Think Felix Jones before he was exposed to whatever type of radiation turns bone into the plastic they use to make tampon applicators. Don't believe me? Just follow the link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bees8RMFQvY
And all that speed has translated onto the field. Check out this run against Miami: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d819c194d
Point is....he could be special. And if you draft them wisely, so can the Tampa Bay Bucs for your fantasy team.
Baltimore Ravens: She's All That.
"What is this, some sort of dork outreach program?" Okay...so you can see the potential is there. The new shiny WR, the third year "breakout ready" quarterback, the running game....the pieces are there.
So why are you hesitating?
Ohhhhhh....I forgot. Their a defensive minded team. They don't care about offense. Just like Rachel Leigh Cook didn't give a shit about what she looked like. She had an image she wanted to convey, and she held onto it. That is, until the super popular, wicked hot Freddie Prinze Jr. came a knockin'....
Consider the Ravens ready for the prom. And after the prom they will give you head. In the back of the limo. While your friends watch. And then they'll do them too. You think their a defensive minded team that will grind the ball? Really?
Tell that to offensive guru Cam Cameron. Or the new Offensive Consultant Al Saunders. Or the new Quarterback coach Jim Zorn. You may have heard of these guys. They are bona-fuckin-fide offensive star makers, and they're all under one cold weather roof. Flacco has been working with Zorn, and practicing his delivery with MLB pitching coaches. I'm pretty sure the Ravens are seeing to it that he's getting swedish massages nightly from Angelina Jolie's strong and capable hands, Emeril Lagasse spoon feeds him his high protein diet, and every time he needs to drop a brown biscuit, Art Modell rises from the dead to wipe his ass for him.
This is not your Daddy's Ravens. Let me ask you...if you planned on grinding out the running game every week....would you have Willis McGahee on the trade block? I mean...wouldn't you at least keep him around even if you were going to move him on the depth chart?
You wouldn't. And neither would they. They are going to throw. And they will run. And they will look like the Harlem Globetrotters doing it in the AFC North. So get confident with Rice. Put McLain back on the depth chart, as the new FB McLaughlin looks good enough to handle full time front blocker duty. McLain will handle the goal line. And you want some deep RB sleepers? Try Jalen Parmele, who's been a stand out so far on special teams, and has lead the Ravens in carries over the preseason. (You read that correctly....he's gotten more carries than Ray Rice.) And don't count out Curtis Steele at RB. This shifty rookie may be taking some carries between the tackles for the blackbirds, and will likely take over Rice's roll if there is an injury.
As far as the passing game, Flacco is a solid choice for a breakout season. I still wouldn't rank him any higher than 9....but he may be the backup that ends up winning your league. When Anquoin Boldin is healthy, he'll have some great games. He's going very low right now. Late #2, early #3 WR. He's better than that. How Brandon Marshall can go in the second round, and Boldin continually falls to the fourth I will never understand.
And that TE will be a fantastic steal with your last pick of the draft. No...not Todd Heap. That POS is DOA. I'm talking about rookie TE Dennis Pitta. This kid's been targeted four times the amount Heap has, and has hauled in five times the amount of catches. He could easily turn in to a bankable redzone threat with McGehee out of the picture.
Of course.....like all "out of nowhere" teams, there's there are a couple of WR's that's not getting drafted at all, that you need to pick up late. Wait...who just said Mark Clayton? I swear if I hear anyone say Mark Clayton I will go to the trunk of my car, grab the driver that my ex-wife gave me out of my golf bag, and bash your fucking skull in with it. I've been dying to break that thing anyway. No fuck-tard....Donte Stallworth, who will be the official HR threat for the team, and has shown at points in his career he can absolutely excel in that position....and Demetrius Williams. At some point, Boldin will get hurt. Hell....Mason is already hurt. Demetrius Williams will get the call, and when he does, this 6' 200 lb. slot receiver may never hit the bench again. He's done decent with the opportunities he's had so far, and now that the rest of his team is competent, I expect him to take it to the next step. (Meaning solid 3rd WR, at minimum.)
Oakland Raiders: Crappy Melissa-Joan Hart movie that I'm not going to waste my time looking the name up because you won't recognize it anyway.
So in this movie, Melissa-Joan Hart has to make-over some guy up to take to the prom, and he ends up getting a lead roll on Entourage. No...you don't want to do him...but he's still pretty cool.
That sums up your Oakland Raiders. I know...they suck. And they still may suck. Jason Campbell is not Peyton Manning.
But as you've read countless times....he's not Jamarcus "Most Kickers Can Put Up Higher QB Ratings Than Me" Russel either. So instead of putting 9-10 guys in the box, most teams may actually only put 7 or 8 there. That's a step up. The offensive line is moving to more of a power-man blocking scheme as opposed to the zone blocking scheme they could not execute, and gets bolstered by rookies Smith and Vallejo. A pluthera of defensive additions will give the offense more minutes on the field. So who benefits the most? Well...you. If you draft some Raiders.
Jason Campbell may have his best season yet. No...he will not take you to a fantasy championship. He's still a backup. But he may be a damn good backup.
With Hugh Jackson at the helm, the running game is sure to get a boost. All 245 pounds of Michael Bush should see plenty of carries this season. If the preseason is any indication, he should be getting plenty of passes thrown his way as well. And if he's not being checked down to....Zach Miller will be.
Note that I didn't mention Darren McFadden. That is because he sucks. And his sore hammy will make him suckier. Move Bush up. Don't draft McFadden.
Of course all this will be used to set up the big play. And who will be the recipient of that big play? Darrius Heyward-Bey? Johnny-Lee Higgins? Chaz Schillins? Nope. They will contribute, but the guy you want to target late is Louis Murphy. I think the reason people disregard him is because of his ordinary sounding name. But that just makes him less likely to be a serial killer, not less likely to catch passes. He's been the most successful deep threat for Oakland to date, and I like him to carry that into a new role that should supply you with 1100 yards, and 9 TD's this season.
By the way....if you're looking for a sleeper defense....look no further. This is an entirely revamped front 7, complete with pash rushing DE's, and new and improved linebacker play. The Pass D was already good, but now that they can rush occasionally and stop the run, I'm looking at them to be a top 10 D this year.
Lastly, I would like to leave you with the Chicago Bears. But I'm not going to do a full review, because you can't turn on your computer without hearing about Mike Martz's and Mike Tice's influence. Look...Aramashoua will be very good in the slot. Knox will get a bunch of deep balls and nothing else. Cutler is the most talented QB Martz ever worked with. Matt Forte wil get about 65% of the carries, and will be closer to 3.9 yards a game than 3.5, and add in a few receptions every game. Devon Hester is not a #1, and Greg Olson will disappear. But as of right now, all of these guys are being drafted right where they should be, and I don't see alot of surprises, so I'll leave them alone.
**************LATE AMENDMENT***************
Wow....completely forgot about KC. I'll just say this....their draft and Romeo Crennel should upgrade their defense, so the offense should get more minutes on the field. Not too much has changed on their O-Line...but like Tampa Bay, it's a very young line that should have a couple guys ready to have "break out" seasons. Charlie Weiss takes over the offense, which means run, run, run, deep pass, run, run, deep pass.
I can't believe that Jamaal Charles went from automatic first rounder to mid-late third rounder because of Thomas Jones Presence. Starter Shmarter. He's the" #1" back in that offense like "Phantom Mentace" was the first Star Wars. It's slower, cornier, more predictable than "A New Hope"....and let's face it....it's really not the first Star Wars. Will Thomas Jones take some goal line carries away? Sure. Will he get the ball four the first 4 carries? Probably. But that said, will his carries be limited to around 8-12 times a game on average? You betcha. Will KC run the ball 30 times a game giving Charles between 15-20 carries? Absolutely. Count on him for a top 12 finish in your RB scoring....which should make him a low #1 back on the draft board. Getting him as a mid #2 is a discount.
On the passing end.....I really expect both Bowe and Cassel to rebound. I don't see #1 status for Cassel, but I do see 3700 yards and 25 TD's while drastically cutting down on the INT's. (14-17.) Essentially he's 2009 Jay Cutler with less INT's. That's a solid #2 QB with a pretty easy schedule, making him a great compliment to your #1. He's undrafted in most leagues, which gives you a great reason to postpone the pick of a #2 QB. Bowe however is being drafted right around where he belongs. Third, 4th round as a #2 receiver. I like him better than several of the guys he's being drafted behind (Steve Smith, OchoCinco, Hakeem Nicks) but I'm not ready to call him a sure fire #1 yet because I believe he'll be inconsistent. If KC can run the ball, they will.
As far as deep sleepers go, I'm not seeing any. I really like Maoki at TE, and think he'll be a time share (with Leonard Pope) pass catching threat much like Chris Cooley this year. He'll be a very usable #2 TE, that is great for covering your bye-weeks and Vernon Davis injuries. (It WILL happen.) That said, he's someone to watch very carefully....not draft. Same for McCluster......he'll be a nightmare for some defenses, but he won't have weekly use.
Now you're wondering....if these teams are ready to be named prom queen...who are the ones that were SUPPOSED to be prom queen, only to come in second and have to storm out after this major blow to their popularity?
Answers coming soon kids. Very soon.
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