I know your plan. I know it, because it's become everyone's fashionable plan. You're going to take two Wide Receivers in the first three rounds. This year, you may go WR, WR one-two.
I can't say I blame you.
After the top 10 or so WR's, you're staring at a couple of Steve Smith's with potential quarterback issues, a never healthy Anquoin Boldin in a new situation, and a notoriously hit and miss Marques Colston. You are understandably hesitant to make any of these guys your #1 WR. After them, you are left to take gambles on Pierre Garcon, Michael Crabtree, and Devin Aramashouda. It's the equivalent of hitting on 16....you don't want to, but the dealer's showing a King, so you have little choice.
Randy Moss's ADP has gone from 14th to 9th in the past few weeks, supplanting Aaron Rodgers. Let me repeat that....he's supplanted Aaron Rodgers. You're taking a guy that will get 1200 yards receiving and 14 TD's ON THE HIGH END over the consensus favorite (not my favorite, but the consensus favorite) to lead your league in total points. Reggie Wayne never makes it past 14, and with Fitzgerald's injury questions, there's a very good chance Miles Austin and Calvin Johnson won't see #20. This isn't necessarily due to the importance of a top #1 WR. It's because owners are looking to go high on a #2. Boldin as your top option? Meh. But as a #2....Shazam!
Essentially, it boils down to #2 WR being the highest risk position on the draft board. You know that some sleepers will break out, but even if you are stuck with inferior RB's and QB's....at least they are safe. Michael Bush is safe. Felix Jones is safe. Kevin Kolb is safe. And they all have upside....so why gamble on a #2 WR?
Again....I can't say I blame you. But you're still a pussy. And you're very, very, very wrong.
The fantasy landscape is about to once again change. 2010 will destroy a tride and true draft day rule.....don't trust rookie WR's. There is sound logic and reason behind this rule, and it's one that generally I have adhered to for years. I have been fine on missing out on the Moss's/Boldin's of the world. And then...in 2008 changes in the NFL were made...and that rule started to become obsolete. I'm not going to brag here, but I drafted DeSean Jackson in about every league I was in. Yes, he came in as a rookie...but he was one with opportunity. He was a speed heavy WR put into the flanker position of a pass heavy offense. Maybe he didn't have his route running down to Michael Irvin levels....but who else was getting that long TD pass? Hank Baskett? The guy can't even catch the hottest "girl next door" much less 8 TD's in a season. I swear, I know 10 women in real life hotter than Kendra. Two lessons came out of the 2008 Eagles.....Chelsea Handler could be a playboy cover girl with a couple of fakies, and Rookie WR's that have an opportunity to best use their specific skill set can end up being solid #2 WR's.
The 2010 NFL draft saw the deepest WR class in recent history. Phenomenal athletes, polished route runners, and guys with hands stickier than your vintage playboy mag were taken unreasonably low due to the influx of talent. There were some undrafted mega-finds out there as well. Add that to the fact that the NFL has become increasingly pass heavy, yet has a severe shortage of quality WR's....and SHAZAM! Ability is meeting opportunity.
Now this does not mean you should be reaching for Golden Tate in round 7 of your draft. Hell....you shouldn't be drafting Golden Tate at all. (Sorry Seahawk fans....but your passing game is going to take some time to develop.) However, there are a ton of late finds out there worth your attention. And with that, I bring you you're 2010 draft guide to rookie WR's.
Guys You Should Definitely Be Drafting;
Mardy Gilyard; St. Louis.
This is an absolutely fantastic scenario. I l-o-v-e love him. At Cincy, he spent 6 months living out of his car waiting out academic ineligibility. That's a tough kid to break. The other guy at the top of this list quit the fucking team, and he probably had a bed to sleep on. Mardy the one man party was deep on the depth chart until Donnie Avery went down for the season. This lithe six footer was a TERRIBLE fit for the slot. But now....now he's a flanker, meaning instead of relying on strength (which he has none of) to beat coverage off the line, he can shake and shimmy his way to 1100 yards and 9 TD's. I know....you're worried about Bradford. And there is great reason to be. But look at it this way.....Bradford won't be able to make NFL reads just yet. That means he'll be looking for one, maybe two options every time he drops back to pass. You know who that first option is?
Gilyard. Bank on it. And look at that schedule....it's screaming breakout passing game. You need to draft Gilyard, because you need him week 1 against AZ when he turns some heads with 6 grabs for 70 yards and Sam Bradford's first ever TD connection with Gilyard. That should be the first of many for years to come.
Mike Williams: Tampa Bay.
Look...you've already read about this kid. He's got a shakey past, but he's worked his ass off in camp, and he's the favorite target of every quarterback on that roster. At 6'2", 220, he's got size. He's got great hands. He has tremendous burst, shimmy and shake, leaving NFL corners holding their jocks after he receives the ball. I hate comparisons to all time greats.....but this guy is Michael Irvin without the prostitutes and drug problems. He'll have plenty of time to fuck up his life later, but this year, he's a fantastic 9th/10th round pick.
Brandon LaFell: Carolina.
Now in all honesty if you HAVE to pick 1 WR in this years draft, it shouldn't be Brandon LaFell. It should be Dwayne Jarret. But noone will draft Jarret, making him FAAB available. Prospect hounds will draft LaFell.
LaFell is in contention for the #2 spot in Carolina, given the oft-injured Jarret a run for his money. He was considered one of the best overall athletes in the draft, but the combine performances (aka...40 times) of a few other prospects ultimately hurt his NFL draft value. That said, any other year he would have been the #1 WR off the board. He's got great hands, plays hurt, and is MORE than willing to grab that ball over the middle. Plus he has decent size (6' 2", 210) and uses it to do a great job of beating smaller cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage. That's the key to succeeding as an X receiver, which is likely where he'll line up most games. Guys like that quickly become favorite targets of young quarterbacks just trying to get that first down. While Carolina is likely going to run, run, run every time they get inside the 20, on the occassions they do pass, I see this kid getting the look. His schedule won't allow him the chance to be a week to week stud, but instead of drafting Mike Sims-Walker in round 6, I'll take LaFell in round 14 for the same production.
Jacoby Ford: Oakland.
Didn't you swear you just put down your beer on the kitchen counter 5 seconds ago? How did it end up in the dining room? No...you're not drunk. It's just Jacoby Ford fucking with you. He ran from Oakland, moved his atoms at super speed allowing him to pass through solid matter, grabbed your beer and moved it, and got back in time to laugh his ass off at you.
I understand that Oakland is chock-fulla burners that can't catch at WR, but this guy makes CJ Spiller look like Mike Alstott. The reports are his 4.28 40 time at the combine doesn't reflect how fast he actually is. He actually has a faster game speed. That's Deion Sanders fast. He doesn't run great routes, which is a problem for me. But with Chaz Schillens hurt, Johnny Lee Higgins sucking, and Derrius Heyward Bay still busy counting his first round signing bonus, he might be a threat out of necessity. He's spent all training camp blowing away a highly underrated Oakland secondary, so he'll get his looks. And that schedule....it's one that makes dreams happen. The first four games are Tennessee, St. Louis, Arizona, and Houston. These are shitty defenses with offenses that force deep throws late in the game. Mmmmmm....tasty.
Save Some FAAB Money For These Guys;
Dez Bryant
Look...I know all the negatives. His speed is being questioned. He has a shitty attitude. He forgot his running shoes preventing him from giving a full work out at the NFL combine.
Think about that.....the major criticisms of this guy are that he may be a flakey, prima-donna malcontent. What top NFL WR is NOT a flakey, prima-donna malcontent? The question is....does he work hard.
Yes. All reports out of the Cowboy camp state that he is a tireless machine full of highlight reel catches. Here's a link for you.
http://mvn.com/2010/07/31/cowboys-wide-receiver-dez-bryant-out-4-6-weeks/
Now Dez will not be useful to you for the first six weeks of the regular season or so. In fact, I strongly believe most owners will get frustrated with him by week 8. That's when you pounce. Right now, he's hurt, and he's out of shape. His injury exacerbates his inability to run 2 plays in a row at full speed. Plus the Dallas O-line will spend the first few weeks getting over their preseason aches and sprains. But he should start showing flashes of ability around week 5 against Tennessee. The real value here starts in week 10. Dallas has a string of NY, Detroit, New Orleans, Indy, Philly, the Redskins....and a beautiful week 16 fantasy championship game matchup against the Cardinals. He'll be playing in the X WR spot by then (Split-end, whatever you want to call it) meaning he'll have some deep slant routes to pair up with some medium length posts. He has the ability to separate from the one guy on opposing defenses NOT covering Miles Austin by that point. You'll want him in your lineup for a string of 75-125 yard games with some over the middle acrobatic catches and 15 yard TD's.
Jason Shipley; Cincinatti
Now, the reason I say Shipley is a FAAB money guy, is because he's likely to play the roll of possession receiver on a run first team with a reasonably tough schedule. Skip him weeks 1 and 2 against NE and Baltimore. But in week 3, I think it's possible that Palmer starts tuning out OchoCinco and Owens, and passes the ball to a guy that can actually catch. The touch matchups actually HELP Shipley's cause, because Cincy is likely to have to throw more than they want, and OchoCinco and TO will be on lock down. They will get their highlight reel grabs, but the real chain mover here is Shipley. Remember Chris Henry when he was healthy? This guy ain't him. Not even close. But he'll get some looks, and haul in the passes when he does.
By the way....while I'm in Cincy....why the fuck are you people considering #85 in round 4, and leaving TO til' round 10? Do you really think OchoCinco is that much better? Do you really think that TO's stats last year were about his ability as opposed to his quarterback? Don't get me wrong....I don't love either of them. But for two guys that will put up similar stats, the discrepancy on the draft board is unforgivable. One of them is over priced, the other is a steal. I leave it to you to figure out which is which.
Demaryius Thomas; Denver.
His injury is keeping him off the must draft list. He may end up requiring further surgery on his foot if it doesn't heal. I actually think that's a likely scenario. However, if it does heal....lets just say that as of today Eddie Royal has a total of 2 preseason catches for 17 yards.
Somebody's gotta catch the ball. Denver will do it's best to run, but with Moreno's hammy....they may find it tough. Plus, that defense is gonna SUUUUUCK without Mike Nolan. They sucked last year, they just beat up on crappy conference cornerbacks. They will be forced to throw, and someone will be forced to catch, and that someone is this 6'3" BEAST of a wideout.
Eric Decker; Denver.
If Brandon Lloyd can't start the season, he moves up to a must draft. I like him more than Thomas. Hands, hands, hands, hands, hands. Great slot potential for this kid. Without a doubt the best hands in the draft. He doesn't have the physical tools that Thomas does, but Denver won't be looking to use him as the deep threat Thomas is. He is cut in the possession receiver mold. He hasn't worked with the first team yet, but he's Quinn's favorite target. Once again....shitty quarterbacks love guys that can catch, and this kid can catch. He's a chain mover with endzone potential. If he gets the nod as the #3 receiver, grab him quick.
Stephen Williams; Arizona.
I've written about Williams before. He is huge. He is fast. He is an undrafted WR with something to prove. He is eating up preseason secondaries, making great adjustments to catch the ball, and beating guys on the outside constantly. It's not hard to think that Breaston, Doucet, and Fitzgerald may miss some games with injury, and when they do.....he will establish a full time job at WR.
Keep Him On The Watch List;
Damian Williams; Tennessee
If you get word he's got a starting job, swoop in and grab him. He is an elite route runner, and while he doesn't have the upside of many Rookie WR's, he is probably the most NFL ready. He'll be an explosive kick returner with unnatural ability and his good hands/speed/understanding of the game make me high on him, but his opportunity is lacking. But if he gets in that Flanker spot that Nate Washington is clogging up....watch out.
Taylor Price; NE.
Right now, all the right things are being said about Price. He's not super fast, (4.4 40) but he's fast enough. He has incredible acceleration, and he's big enough at 6' 210 to beat some guys off the line in the Flanker Spot. He will likely only be the 4th option on the field at any given time, but his position will give him some real matchup advantages against a Man-Zone. Those games....80 yards and a TD.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Friday, August 27, 2010
Fantasy Football Mean Girls: Overrated Offenses
The last article referenced the classic "ugly duck" movie concept. You know....where the ugly girl suddenly gets hot and becomes prom queen. First of all....I had to amend my last article to include KC. Not that there's alot of "sleepers", but some of their players are highly undervalued. That said....there's another side to this. In all those movies, you had the girl that was the no-holds-barred hottest bitch in the school that was a SHOE IN for prom queen. This girl....while she remained hot....would eventually lose the title as flaws in her personality were discovered.
Now...I know it's ridiculous to think anyone would care about a female's personality, but there's something to be learned here. There are some NFL teams out there with some serious personality flaws, but because they were the equivalent of the girl in middle school that first got breasts, we look past those flaws and they remain hot by reputation.
Stay away from these teams. Not because their players will suck, but because they are overvalued in your draft. You will not get the results you want out of them. You need a list of these teams? You got it.
The Girl That Was Hot Until She Messed With Someone That Ended Up Being a Teenage Witch: Minnesota Vikings.
I haven't seen so many hip-surgeries and headaches since that judge made me do community service in the old folks home. Favre is calling his coach a pussy, and guys are....well....their Twittering. That's just... not what a football team should be doing. Personally I blame everything on Jared Allen cutting his mohawk for his wedding. Much like Samson, Minnesota is nothing without that hair. (Also...he's down to 4 sacks this year. Why? He got married. Tough to sack a guy after you've been neutered.) I'm not going to spend alot of time on these guys, because you know the issues. Favre made that O-line (especially McKinnie) look better that it was. He will not make it more than three weeks before he officially has to stand perfectly still after the snap in order to keep his ankle attached to his body. This would be good news for Berrian. While he battled injuries all year with his hammy, a clean bill of health will not make Favre stop hating him for being a whiney-not-from-the-south little bitch. And all the sudden, Camarillo is getting drafted as a strong #3 receiver (ADP is skyrocketing after the trade) which makes him overvalued as well. 45th receiver off the board? Sure...maybe. Someone's gotta catch the ball. 30th receiver off the board? Seriously? No.
I know what you're thinking...AP is the exception. Well....kinda. Will he be a top 12 back? Absolutely. But don't bank on the removal of Chester Taylor to help. Taylor came in more for increased pass protection, to catch a few balls, and to give AP an occassional breather. You know who that guy is now? AP. His blocking skills have increased, and he's shown that he can catch. This results in three things: he'll catch more passes, (yeeeeaaaahhh!!!) but this may be the year his injury prone ass finally takes too much of a beating. (Boooo.) Plus, the "change of pace" back is now a between the tackles downhill runner. That means AP will get less carries behind Hutchinson, and more bouncing to the outside, behind the vastly overrated McKinnie. (Booooooooooooooo.) Can he do that? Sure. Is that his game? Not really.
Don't get me wrong....he'll be a great back again this year. But instead of combining the upsides of his 1800 yard/14 TD season, (Including a couple 200+ yard games...not likely to happen regularly) and his 1400 yard/18 TD season, I see him doing more of the reverse with a small yards p/carry average. It's still 1400 yards and 14 TD's, (IF he has 16 games in him...which he does not) but it's not what you're expecting.
Wow....I did spend alot of time on these guys. Ok...next....
The Girl That Was Super Hot And Then She Got Overconfident, Dropped Her Boyfriend, Who Started Dating A New Girl That Became EVEN HOTTER!: Indianapolis Colts;
I know....this is heresey. How dare I question the great Peyton Manning and his "best quarterback of all time" title. But just like the St. Louis Rams gave way to age and injury, the Colts run is about to hit a road bump. I am staying away from every Colt on the draft board, save maybe Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown.
The entire offensive line is injured. All of 'em. Now, many "should" be back for the regular season...but they are hurting man. Hurting. None more significant than Jeff Saturday. If Peyton Manning is the CEO of the Colts offense, then Saturday is it's chief operations officer. Actually...screw that....he runs the warehouse. My point is he makes sure all the guys are doing what they are supposed to be doing once the CEO dictates the direction of the company. He just had his knee scoped, and is supposed to be back by week 1. That's a mistake. Scopes aren't a deal breaker for most football players, but most of them don't have to put a tremendous amount of pressure on their thighs and knees to quickly snap a ball and then hold off a 300 lb. nose tackle, or blitzing MLB. Hell....if I'm playing the Colts I am inside blitzing ALLLLLLLLL day. If I know that.....defensive coordinators know that.
During their dominant offensive run, the Colts have lived and died with that offensive line. With all the missed preseason, and all the hobbling on and off the field, I don't trust them. And therefore, I don't trust the Colts. And therefore....I don't trust that running game at all. The fantasy value of Colts running backs has always stemmed from their TD opportunities. There will be less of those now. Let someone else get suckered into that scene...it's not going to work out.
Downgrade Dallas Clark. Seriously. He still wasn't the highest scoring TE last year, and that's when he could run all over and catch 100 balls. Now he needs to block. Not to mention the fact that Gonzalez, Garcon, and Collie would all like to catch a ball every so often.
Reggie Wayne has been the most overrated fantasy WR for years now. He has NEVER been a weekly threat. He has big, huge games, with a couple weeks of nothin' in between. That's about to get worse as Manning has to rely on 3 step drops, and can't chuck it deep as often.
Austin Collie is lining up in both the slot, and the outside. What that means is Gonzelez and Garcon are essentially splitting carries. That makes all of them worth less than their current draft slots. Gonzalez is going late in drafts, or not at all, so his value is relatively spot on. Make no mistake about it, while Collie will be a heavily used 4th man....he's still the 4th man. But the guy I really hate here is Garcon. Look...he'll be a solid #3/#4, with a few good weeks, and some scattered crap weeks. But he's being taken as the 25th WR off the board on average. (ADP of 65, or mid round 5 for most leagues.) He won't produce like a low end #2.
Plus....that schedule is harder than it looks. Oakland's better, Jacksonville is better, Philly's better, Washington's better....they have some tough draws to mix in with the Houstons, and Tennesees. That means more inconsistency from the receiving corp.
The one guy......the ONE guy I would consider drafting is Donald Brown. And that is ONLY because of Addai's concussion, and the fact his ADP is 109....42nd RB off the board. If he gets the majority of the carries, he could end up being a serviceable #2 back, and exceed that draft spot. But think more Marshawn Lynch 2008. Never a hundred yard game and under 10 TD's.
The Girl That Everyone Thought Was Hot Until Her Wig Flew Off/Bra Came Unstuffed When Her Evil Plan To Eliminate The New Hot Girl From The Prom Backfired: Houston Texans.
This is somewhat specific to the passing game.......on top of having one of the easiest pass schedules the world has ever seen in 2009, you have a better chance of being struck by lightening while simultaneously capturing a Bengal Tiger and watching a blockbuster movie that had Paul Giamotti being cast as the Incredible Hulk (Not David Banner....the actual Hulk) than you have of both Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson staying on the field for more than 13 games two years in a row.
The line is intact. Neh...it may be better. Which means more running. Which means less passing. Will this be Jacoby's breakout year? Maybe...but not in the "Reggie Wayne breakout year" fashion. More in the "Walter Johnson" breakout year fashion. And that will take balls away from Johnson, who has yet to break the 10 TD barrier. Move Johnson down your board. (He should at least be behind Moss and Austin.) Keep Jacoby where he is...a low end 3rd WR, and don't even think about drafting Schaub. If you draft Schaub, you better have a great backup. Like...I don't know....Aaron Rodgers. Otherwise, don't do it.
The Overhyped/Overconfident Girl That Was Easily Not As Hot As The New Girl That Transferred: Green Bay Packers.
50 sacks. That's alot of sacks. And your favorite WR in late round 2, early round 3, Greg Jennings, had 4 TD's. That won't change much, because about 1/2 way through 2008 teams said..."Heh...Jennings gets all his TD's by getting behind our defense. Let's not allow him to do that anymore, because he's not that fast, and Donald Driver is not nearly the threat he once was. So we'll double cover Jennings instead" Then he stopped catching TD's. That pattern is here to stay. I realize they had to deal with injuries to their O-Line in '09, but last years whipping boys....Detroit and Chicago.... both made moves to put more pressure on the QB. Plus that schedule included some horrible Pass Defenses. This year, short of a week 2 contest at Buffalo, and a week 6 contest at Miami, those pass D's they are facing have seen alot of improvement. And if you were playing a crappy Buffalo, and a banged up Miami.....wouldn't you run all game? You would? Me too. Therefore, I like Grant to put up similar numbers, but not at the "10th RB off the board" spot he's being drafted in. I see Finley putting up identical numbers, Jennings stuck at 6 TD's, and Driver being much less of a factor. I would look hard at James Jones out of the slot as his talent outweighs his average draft spot, and Rodgers will have alot of hot reads to make, but I would stay away from the rest of these guys.
If you have guys from these teams, you can still trade em. But do it before the season starts, otherwise you won't recover the value you drafted them for.
Now...I know it's ridiculous to think anyone would care about a female's personality, but there's something to be learned here. There are some NFL teams out there with some serious personality flaws, but because they were the equivalent of the girl in middle school that first got breasts, we look past those flaws and they remain hot by reputation.
Stay away from these teams. Not because their players will suck, but because they are overvalued in your draft. You will not get the results you want out of them. You need a list of these teams? You got it.
The Girl That Was Hot Until She Messed With Someone That Ended Up Being a Teenage Witch: Minnesota Vikings.
I haven't seen so many hip-surgeries and headaches since that judge made me do community service in the old folks home. Favre is calling his coach a pussy, and guys are....well....their Twittering. That's just... not what a football team should be doing. Personally I blame everything on Jared Allen cutting his mohawk for his wedding. Much like Samson, Minnesota is nothing without that hair. (Also...he's down to 4 sacks this year. Why? He got married. Tough to sack a guy after you've been neutered.) I'm not going to spend alot of time on these guys, because you know the issues. Favre made that O-line (especially McKinnie) look better that it was. He will not make it more than three weeks before he officially has to stand perfectly still after the snap in order to keep his ankle attached to his body. This would be good news for Berrian. While he battled injuries all year with his hammy, a clean bill of health will not make Favre stop hating him for being a whiney-not-from-the-south little bitch. And all the sudden, Camarillo is getting drafted as a strong #3 receiver (ADP is skyrocketing after the trade) which makes him overvalued as well. 45th receiver off the board? Sure...maybe. Someone's gotta catch the ball. 30th receiver off the board? Seriously? No.
I know what you're thinking...AP is the exception. Well....kinda. Will he be a top 12 back? Absolutely. But don't bank on the removal of Chester Taylor to help. Taylor came in more for increased pass protection, to catch a few balls, and to give AP an occassional breather. You know who that guy is now? AP. His blocking skills have increased, and he's shown that he can catch. This results in three things: he'll catch more passes, (yeeeeaaaahhh!!!) but this may be the year his injury prone ass finally takes too much of a beating. (Boooo.) Plus, the "change of pace" back is now a between the tackles downhill runner. That means AP will get less carries behind Hutchinson, and more bouncing to the outside, behind the vastly overrated McKinnie. (Booooooooooooooo.) Can he do that? Sure. Is that his game? Not really.
Don't get me wrong....he'll be a great back again this year. But instead of combining the upsides of his 1800 yard/14 TD season, (Including a couple 200+ yard games...not likely to happen regularly) and his 1400 yard/18 TD season, I see him doing more of the reverse with a small yards p/carry average. It's still 1400 yards and 14 TD's, (IF he has 16 games in him...which he does not) but it's not what you're expecting.
Wow....I did spend alot of time on these guys. Ok...next....
The Girl That Was Super Hot And Then She Got Overconfident, Dropped Her Boyfriend, Who Started Dating A New Girl That Became EVEN HOTTER!: Indianapolis Colts;
I know....this is heresey. How dare I question the great Peyton Manning and his "best quarterback of all time" title. But just like the St. Louis Rams gave way to age and injury, the Colts run is about to hit a road bump. I am staying away from every Colt on the draft board, save maybe Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown.
The entire offensive line is injured. All of 'em. Now, many "should" be back for the regular season...but they are hurting man. Hurting. None more significant than Jeff Saturday. If Peyton Manning is the CEO of the Colts offense, then Saturday is it's chief operations officer. Actually...screw that....he runs the warehouse. My point is he makes sure all the guys are doing what they are supposed to be doing once the CEO dictates the direction of the company. He just had his knee scoped, and is supposed to be back by week 1. That's a mistake. Scopes aren't a deal breaker for most football players, but most of them don't have to put a tremendous amount of pressure on their thighs and knees to quickly snap a ball and then hold off a 300 lb. nose tackle, or blitzing MLB. Hell....if I'm playing the Colts I am inside blitzing ALLLLLLLLL day. If I know that.....defensive coordinators know that.
During their dominant offensive run, the Colts have lived and died with that offensive line. With all the missed preseason, and all the hobbling on and off the field, I don't trust them. And therefore, I don't trust the Colts. And therefore....I don't trust that running game at all. The fantasy value of Colts running backs has always stemmed from their TD opportunities. There will be less of those now. Let someone else get suckered into that scene...it's not going to work out.
Downgrade Dallas Clark. Seriously. He still wasn't the highest scoring TE last year, and that's when he could run all over and catch 100 balls. Now he needs to block. Not to mention the fact that Gonzalez, Garcon, and Collie would all like to catch a ball every so often.
Reggie Wayne has been the most overrated fantasy WR for years now. He has NEVER been a weekly threat. He has big, huge games, with a couple weeks of nothin' in between. That's about to get worse as Manning has to rely on 3 step drops, and can't chuck it deep as often.
Austin Collie is lining up in both the slot, and the outside. What that means is Gonzelez and Garcon are essentially splitting carries. That makes all of them worth less than their current draft slots. Gonzalez is going late in drafts, or not at all, so his value is relatively spot on. Make no mistake about it, while Collie will be a heavily used 4th man....he's still the 4th man. But the guy I really hate here is Garcon. Look...he'll be a solid #3/#4, with a few good weeks, and some scattered crap weeks. But he's being taken as the 25th WR off the board on average. (ADP of 65, or mid round 5 for most leagues.) He won't produce like a low end #2.
Plus....that schedule is harder than it looks. Oakland's better, Jacksonville is better, Philly's better, Washington's better....they have some tough draws to mix in with the Houstons, and Tennesees. That means more inconsistency from the receiving corp.
The one guy......the ONE guy I would consider drafting is Donald Brown. And that is ONLY because of Addai's concussion, and the fact his ADP is 109....42nd RB off the board. If he gets the majority of the carries, he could end up being a serviceable #2 back, and exceed that draft spot. But think more Marshawn Lynch 2008. Never a hundred yard game and under 10 TD's.
The Girl That Everyone Thought Was Hot Until Her Wig Flew Off/Bra Came Unstuffed When Her Evil Plan To Eliminate The New Hot Girl From The Prom Backfired: Houston Texans.
This is somewhat specific to the passing game.......on top of having one of the easiest pass schedules the world has ever seen in 2009, you have a better chance of being struck by lightening while simultaneously capturing a Bengal Tiger and watching a blockbuster movie that had Paul Giamotti being cast as the Incredible Hulk (Not David Banner....the actual Hulk) than you have of both Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson staying on the field for more than 13 games two years in a row.
The line is intact. Neh...it may be better. Which means more running. Which means less passing. Will this be Jacoby's breakout year? Maybe...but not in the "Reggie Wayne breakout year" fashion. More in the "Walter Johnson" breakout year fashion. And that will take balls away from Johnson, who has yet to break the 10 TD barrier. Move Johnson down your board. (He should at least be behind Moss and Austin.) Keep Jacoby where he is...a low end 3rd WR, and don't even think about drafting Schaub. If you draft Schaub, you better have a great backup. Like...I don't know....Aaron Rodgers. Otherwise, don't do it.
The Overhyped/Overconfident Girl That Was Easily Not As Hot As The New Girl That Transferred: Green Bay Packers.
50 sacks. That's alot of sacks. And your favorite WR in late round 2, early round 3, Greg Jennings, had 4 TD's. That won't change much, because about 1/2 way through 2008 teams said..."Heh...Jennings gets all his TD's by getting behind our defense. Let's not allow him to do that anymore, because he's not that fast, and Donald Driver is not nearly the threat he once was. So we'll double cover Jennings instead" Then he stopped catching TD's. That pattern is here to stay. I realize they had to deal with injuries to their O-Line in '09, but last years whipping boys....Detroit and Chicago.... both made moves to put more pressure on the QB. Plus that schedule included some horrible Pass Defenses. This year, short of a week 2 contest at Buffalo, and a week 6 contest at Miami, those pass D's they are facing have seen alot of improvement. And if you were playing a crappy Buffalo, and a banged up Miami.....wouldn't you run all game? You would? Me too. Therefore, I like Grant to put up similar numbers, but not at the "10th RB off the board" spot he's being drafted in. I see Finley putting up identical numbers, Jennings stuck at 6 TD's, and Driver being much less of a factor. I would look hard at James Jones out of the slot as his talent outweighs his average draft spot, and Rodgers will have alot of hot reads to make, but I would stay away from the rest of these guys.
If you have guys from these teams, you can still trade em. But do it before the season starts, otherwise you won't recover the value you drafted them for.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Fantasy Football Prom Queens: The NFL Equivalent of Rachel Leigh Cook
You know that "sneaky hot" girl you work/go to school/see at the bus-stop every day? The one that....if she just lost the glasses, found a cream rinse, and grabbed an inexpensive but form fitting shirt from H&M...she'd be dynamite? That girl is a classic Rachel Leigh Cook. You know she can be hot if she just made a few moves, but you continually ignore her. So you know what happens? Freddie Prinze Jr. snaps her up, she takes down the ponytail, and you are left kicking yourself.
In the same way, every year there seems to be a team that produces a multitude of fantasy options that comes out of nowhere. You realize that the pieces are there. You see the potential from far away...but some bad reputation skews your vision as they get closer. Maybe they've had a bad offensive line for years. Maybe they've always been a defense first team. Maybe there's just way too many things that have to go right for it to work out. But ask yourself... did you ever DREAM that Steve Breaston would have such an impact on your season in 2008? Did you give any thought to grabbing Sidney Rice in the mid-rounds of your draft in 2009? Wes Welker in 2007, Marion Barber in 2006.....the list goes on. You knew that under all that tom-boy exterior was a hot chick with huge tits. Maybe even one that equated sleeping with alot of dudes as evidence she was hot, and desperately wanted the approval of their peers...or even better...their fathers.
I bring to you this years new hotties. The teams that are ready to go from the Math Club to the Prom. Move the stars up on your draft board, and target there unheard of options in the late round, because a third wide-receiver from these teams is the equivalent of a pity-hand-job to get you off their backs. It may not be exactly what you wanted, but man...it still feels good.
Tampa Bay: Some Kind of Wonderful.
Think of the Bucs as Mary Stuart Masterson. "All I need is you, me, and my drums." She goes from short haired tom-boy to...well...she's still Mary Stuart Masterson. Not super hot, but she's showing cleavage, and she's completely willing to drink your man-juice like it was a potion for reviving her career. Good enough.
Tampa is still kinda ugly. Freeman will still toss a boat load of INT's this season. But there is alot of reason to be optimistic. I'm starting with the offensive line. There are no major changes, but these guys are young. But no longer toooo young. They are...well...breakout stage young. Add in that last year they battled injury issues with their center, and had no depth. They've added some depth in the draft, and may be prime to take a major step forward. Did you see them against Miami? Not too shabby.
Then...check out the new game plan. Last year, the team only averaged 25 running attempts a game. That's going to change...although not by much. Greg Olsen steps in and brings a version of the Steve Mariucci West Coast Offense in with him. Or should I say, the John Gruden Superbowl winning offensive style. However, given the age of the starters, the west coast will take some time to develop. And remember...it's a Mariucci west coast. That means there will be enough running and passing to go around.
So we have a better line, and a more suitable game plan. Add an improved defense that will keep the offense closer to the goal line, and all we need is offensive talent. I want you to take a very good, very hard look at Freeman. His thumb will be fine by the start of the season. He's got great mobility. He's got a massive arm. He has a boat load of potential, that under the right coach with the right system, he could be pretty damn good. On the downside....his accuracy leaves much to be desired. He will struggle at times. he will still throw an interception or two a game. But make no mistake about it....he's going to score. He's still going to have a few 250-300 yard gems with 2-3 TD's and 50 yards on the ground. For all of you that are eyeing Vince Young, or Matt Moore late in the draft...Freeman is better. His short lived pre-season stat line? 4 for 4, 53 yards. Not bad. Overall, the kids a playmaker.
And now he's surrounded by other playmakers.
Have you seen Mike Williams in pre-season? Mike Williams will be the highest impact rookie in 2010. There...I said it. F you Ryan Mathews. I didn't want you in my draft anyway. Williams will be this teams flanker. So basically, he'll have DeSean Jackson's position in a relatively similar offense with a quarterback that's equivalent to Donovan McNabb, with more speed and less ability to read a defense. Except Williams is bigger with better hands. I'll take it.
The next best receiver? Time to move Kellen Winslow up your depth chart. This offense is made for TE's running slot routes and outside flares. He'll get plenty of targets from his young QB.
Lastly, the running game. Do you remember last year in the first four weeks, when you had to check the stat sheet three times because you SWEAR you thought it said that 100 yard back was Cadillac Williams, but...but it just couldn't be! Could it? Yup...it was. But he's not even the best part of this offense. The best part is Kareem Huggins. He's got 50 yards on the ground in each of his first 2 preseason games. Huggins is a small back...5'9"...so he probably won't take a full time roll. That said...shit this kid is fast. Fast and built like he's auditioning for a 1993 Janet Jackson video. The rookie out of Hofstra ran a 4.28 40 at the combine, and he's already supplanted Ward on the depth chart. Think Felix Jones before he was exposed to whatever type of radiation turns bone into the plastic they use to make tampon applicators. Don't believe me? Just follow the link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bees8RMFQvY
And all that speed has translated onto the field. Check out this run against Miami: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d819c194d
Point is....he could be special. And if you draft them wisely, so can the Tampa Bay Bucs for your fantasy team.
Baltimore Ravens: She's All That.
"What is this, some sort of dork outreach program?" Okay...so you can see the potential is there. The new shiny WR, the third year "breakout ready" quarterback, the running game....the pieces are there.
So why are you hesitating?
Ohhhhhh....I forgot. Their a defensive minded team. They don't care about offense. Just like Rachel Leigh Cook didn't give a shit about what she looked like. She had an image she wanted to convey, and she held onto it. That is, until the super popular, wicked hot Freddie Prinze Jr. came a knockin'....
Consider the Ravens ready for the prom. And after the prom they will give you head. In the back of the limo. While your friends watch. And then they'll do them too. You think their a defensive minded team that will grind the ball? Really?
Tell that to offensive guru Cam Cameron. Or the new Offensive Consultant Al Saunders. Or the new Quarterback coach Jim Zorn. You may have heard of these guys. They are bona-fuckin-fide offensive star makers, and they're all under one cold weather roof. Flacco has been working with Zorn, and practicing his delivery with MLB pitching coaches. I'm pretty sure the Ravens are seeing to it that he's getting swedish massages nightly from Angelina Jolie's strong and capable hands, Emeril Lagasse spoon feeds him his high protein diet, and every time he needs to drop a brown biscuit, Art Modell rises from the dead to wipe his ass for him.
This is not your Daddy's Ravens. Let me ask you...if you planned on grinding out the running game every week....would you have Willis McGahee on the trade block? I mean...wouldn't you at least keep him around even if you were going to move him on the depth chart?
You wouldn't. And neither would they. They are going to throw. And they will run. And they will look like the Harlem Globetrotters doing it in the AFC North. So get confident with Rice. Put McLain back on the depth chart, as the new FB McLaughlin looks good enough to handle full time front blocker duty. McLain will handle the goal line. And you want some deep RB sleepers? Try Jalen Parmele, who's been a stand out so far on special teams, and has lead the Ravens in carries over the preseason. (You read that correctly....he's gotten more carries than Ray Rice.) And don't count out Curtis Steele at RB. This shifty rookie may be taking some carries between the tackles for the blackbirds, and will likely take over Rice's roll if there is an injury.
As far as the passing game, Flacco is a solid choice for a breakout season. I still wouldn't rank him any higher than 9....but he may be the backup that ends up winning your league. When Anquoin Boldin is healthy, he'll have some great games. He's going very low right now. Late #2, early #3 WR. He's better than that. How Brandon Marshall can go in the second round, and Boldin continually falls to the fourth I will never understand.
And that TE will be a fantastic steal with your last pick of the draft. No...not Todd Heap. That POS is DOA. I'm talking about rookie TE Dennis Pitta. This kid's been targeted four times the amount Heap has, and has hauled in five times the amount of catches. He could easily turn in to a bankable redzone threat with McGehee out of the picture.
Of course.....like all "out of nowhere" teams, there's there are a couple of WR's that's not getting drafted at all, that you need to pick up late. Wait...who just said Mark Clayton? I swear if I hear anyone say Mark Clayton I will go to the trunk of my car, grab the driver that my ex-wife gave me out of my golf bag, and bash your fucking skull in with it. I've been dying to break that thing anyway. No fuck-tard....Donte Stallworth, who will be the official HR threat for the team, and has shown at points in his career he can absolutely excel in that position....and Demetrius Williams. At some point, Boldin will get hurt. Hell....Mason is already hurt. Demetrius Williams will get the call, and when he does, this 6' 200 lb. slot receiver may never hit the bench again. He's done decent with the opportunities he's had so far, and now that the rest of his team is competent, I expect him to take it to the next step. (Meaning solid 3rd WR, at minimum.)
Oakland Raiders: Crappy Melissa-Joan Hart movie that I'm not going to waste my time looking the name up because you won't recognize it anyway.
So in this movie, Melissa-Joan Hart has to make-over some guy up to take to the prom, and he ends up getting a lead roll on Entourage. No...you don't want to do him...but he's still pretty cool.
That sums up your Oakland Raiders. I know...they suck. And they still may suck. Jason Campbell is not Peyton Manning.
But as you've read countless times....he's not Jamarcus "Most Kickers Can Put Up Higher QB Ratings Than Me" Russel either. So instead of putting 9-10 guys in the box, most teams may actually only put 7 or 8 there. That's a step up. The offensive line is moving to more of a power-man blocking scheme as opposed to the zone blocking scheme they could not execute, and gets bolstered by rookies Smith and Vallejo. A pluthera of defensive additions will give the offense more minutes on the field. So who benefits the most? Well...you. If you draft some Raiders.
Jason Campbell may have his best season yet. No...he will not take you to a fantasy championship. He's still a backup. But he may be a damn good backup.
With Hugh Jackson at the helm, the running game is sure to get a boost. All 245 pounds of Michael Bush should see plenty of carries this season. If the preseason is any indication, he should be getting plenty of passes thrown his way as well. And if he's not being checked down to....Zach Miller will be.
Note that I didn't mention Darren McFadden. That is because he sucks. And his sore hammy will make him suckier. Move Bush up. Don't draft McFadden.
Of course all this will be used to set up the big play. And who will be the recipient of that big play? Darrius Heyward-Bey? Johnny-Lee Higgins? Chaz Schillins? Nope. They will contribute, but the guy you want to target late is Louis Murphy. I think the reason people disregard him is because of his ordinary sounding name. But that just makes him less likely to be a serial killer, not less likely to catch passes. He's been the most successful deep threat for Oakland to date, and I like him to carry that into a new role that should supply you with 1100 yards, and 9 TD's this season.
By the way....if you're looking for a sleeper defense....look no further. This is an entirely revamped front 7, complete with pash rushing DE's, and new and improved linebacker play. The Pass D was already good, but now that they can rush occasionally and stop the run, I'm looking at them to be a top 10 D this year.
Lastly, I would like to leave you with the Chicago Bears. But I'm not going to do a full review, because you can't turn on your computer without hearing about Mike Martz's and Mike Tice's influence. Look...Aramashoua will be very good in the slot. Knox will get a bunch of deep balls and nothing else. Cutler is the most talented QB Martz ever worked with. Matt Forte wil get about 65% of the carries, and will be closer to 3.9 yards a game than 3.5, and add in a few receptions every game. Devon Hester is not a #1, and Greg Olson will disappear. But as of right now, all of these guys are being drafted right where they should be, and I don't see alot of surprises, so I'll leave them alone.
**************LATE AMENDMENT***************
Wow....completely forgot about KC. I'll just say this....their draft and Romeo Crennel should upgrade their defense, so the offense should get more minutes on the field. Not too much has changed on their O-Line...but like Tampa Bay, it's a very young line that should have a couple guys ready to have "break out" seasons. Charlie Weiss takes over the offense, which means run, run, run, deep pass, run, run, deep pass.
I can't believe that Jamaal Charles went from automatic first rounder to mid-late third rounder because of Thomas Jones Presence. Starter Shmarter. He's the" #1" back in that offense like "Phantom Mentace" was the first Star Wars. It's slower, cornier, more predictable than "A New Hope"....and let's face it....it's really not the first Star Wars. Will Thomas Jones take some goal line carries away? Sure. Will he get the ball four the first 4 carries? Probably. But that said, will his carries be limited to around 8-12 times a game on average? You betcha. Will KC run the ball 30 times a game giving Charles between 15-20 carries? Absolutely. Count on him for a top 12 finish in your RB scoring....which should make him a low #1 back on the draft board. Getting him as a mid #2 is a discount.
On the passing end.....I really expect both Bowe and Cassel to rebound. I don't see #1 status for Cassel, but I do see 3700 yards and 25 TD's while drastically cutting down on the INT's. (14-17.) Essentially he's 2009 Jay Cutler with less INT's. That's a solid #2 QB with a pretty easy schedule, making him a great compliment to your #1. He's undrafted in most leagues, which gives you a great reason to postpone the pick of a #2 QB. Bowe however is being drafted right around where he belongs. Third, 4th round as a #2 receiver. I like him better than several of the guys he's being drafted behind (Steve Smith, OchoCinco, Hakeem Nicks) but I'm not ready to call him a sure fire #1 yet because I believe he'll be inconsistent. If KC can run the ball, they will.
As far as deep sleepers go, I'm not seeing any. I really like Maoki at TE, and think he'll be a time share (with Leonard Pope) pass catching threat much like Chris Cooley this year. He'll be a very usable #2 TE, that is great for covering your bye-weeks and Vernon Davis injuries. (It WILL happen.) That said, he's someone to watch very carefully....not draft. Same for McCluster......he'll be a nightmare for some defenses, but he won't have weekly use.
Now you're wondering....if these teams are ready to be named prom queen...who are the ones that were SUPPOSED to be prom queen, only to come in second and have to storm out after this major blow to their popularity?
Answers coming soon kids. Very soon.
In the same way, every year there seems to be a team that produces a multitude of fantasy options that comes out of nowhere. You realize that the pieces are there. You see the potential from far away...but some bad reputation skews your vision as they get closer. Maybe they've had a bad offensive line for years. Maybe they've always been a defense first team. Maybe there's just way too many things that have to go right for it to work out. But ask yourself... did you ever DREAM that Steve Breaston would have such an impact on your season in 2008? Did you give any thought to grabbing Sidney Rice in the mid-rounds of your draft in 2009? Wes Welker in 2007, Marion Barber in 2006.....the list goes on. You knew that under all that tom-boy exterior was a hot chick with huge tits. Maybe even one that equated sleeping with alot of dudes as evidence she was hot, and desperately wanted the approval of their peers...or even better...their fathers.
I bring to you this years new hotties. The teams that are ready to go from the Math Club to the Prom. Move the stars up on your draft board, and target there unheard of options in the late round, because a third wide-receiver from these teams is the equivalent of a pity-hand-job to get you off their backs. It may not be exactly what you wanted, but man...it still feels good.
Tampa Bay: Some Kind of Wonderful.
Think of the Bucs as Mary Stuart Masterson. "All I need is you, me, and my drums." She goes from short haired tom-boy to...well...she's still Mary Stuart Masterson. Not super hot, but she's showing cleavage, and she's completely willing to drink your man-juice like it was a potion for reviving her career. Good enough.
Tampa is still kinda ugly. Freeman will still toss a boat load of INT's this season. But there is alot of reason to be optimistic. I'm starting with the offensive line. There are no major changes, but these guys are young. But no longer toooo young. They are...well...breakout stage young. Add in that last year they battled injury issues with their center, and had no depth. They've added some depth in the draft, and may be prime to take a major step forward. Did you see them against Miami? Not too shabby.
Then...check out the new game plan. Last year, the team only averaged 25 running attempts a game. That's going to change...although not by much. Greg Olsen steps in and brings a version of the Steve Mariucci West Coast Offense in with him. Or should I say, the John Gruden Superbowl winning offensive style. However, given the age of the starters, the west coast will take some time to develop. And remember...it's a Mariucci west coast. That means there will be enough running and passing to go around.
So we have a better line, and a more suitable game plan. Add an improved defense that will keep the offense closer to the goal line, and all we need is offensive talent. I want you to take a very good, very hard look at Freeman. His thumb will be fine by the start of the season. He's got great mobility. He's got a massive arm. He has a boat load of potential, that under the right coach with the right system, he could be pretty damn good. On the downside....his accuracy leaves much to be desired. He will struggle at times. he will still throw an interception or two a game. But make no mistake about it....he's going to score. He's still going to have a few 250-300 yard gems with 2-3 TD's and 50 yards on the ground. For all of you that are eyeing Vince Young, or Matt Moore late in the draft...Freeman is better. His short lived pre-season stat line? 4 for 4, 53 yards. Not bad. Overall, the kids a playmaker.
And now he's surrounded by other playmakers.
Have you seen Mike Williams in pre-season? Mike Williams will be the highest impact rookie in 2010. There...I said it. F you Ryan Mathews. I didn't want you in my draft anyway. Williams will be this teams flanker. So basically, he'll have DeSean Jackson's position in a relatively similar offense with a quarterback that's equivalent to Donovan McNabb, with more speed and less ability to read a defense. Except Williams is bigger with better hands. I'll take it.
The next best receiver? Time to move Kellen Winslow up your depth chart. This offense is made for TE's running slot routes and outside flares. He'll get plenty of targets from his young QB.
Lastly, the running game. Do you remember last year in the first four weeks, when you had to check the stat sheet three times because you SWEAR you thought it said that 100 yard back was Cadillac Williams, but...but it just couldn't be! Could it? Yup...it was. But he's not even the best part of this offense. The best part is Kareem Huggins. He's got 50 yards on the ground in each of his first 2 preseason games. Huggins is a small back...5'9"...so he probably won't take a full time roll. That said...shit this kid is fast. Fast and built like he's auditioning for a 1993 Janet Jackson video. The rookie out of Hofstra ran a 4.28 40 at the combine, and he's already supplanted Ward on the depth chart. Think Felix Jones before he was exposed to whatever type of radiation turns bone into the plastic they use to make tampon applicators. Don't believe me? Just follow the link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bees8RMFQvY
And all that speed has translated onto the field. Check out this run against Miami: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d819c194d
Point is....he could be special. And if you draft them wisely, so can the Tampa Bay Bucs for your fantasy team.
Baltimore Ravens: She's All That.
"What is this, some sort of dork outreach program?" Okay...so you can see the potential is there. The new shiny WR, the third year "breakout ready" quarterback, the running game....the pieces are there.
So why are you hesitating?
Ohhhhhh....I forgot. Their a defensive minded team. They don't care about offense. Just like Rachel Leigh Cook didn't give a shit about what she looked like. She had an image she wanted to convey, and she held onto it. That is, until the super popular, wicked hot Freddie Prinze Jr. came a knockin'....
Consider the Ravens ready for the prom. And after the prom they will give you head. In the back of the limo. While your friends watch. And then they'll do them too. You think their a defensive minded team that will grind the ball? Really?
Tell that to offensive guru Cam Cameron. Or the new Offensive Consultant Al Saunders. Or the new Quarterback coach Jim Zorn. You may have heard of these guys. They are bona-fuckin-fide offensive star makers, and they're all under one cold weather roof. Flacco has been working with Zorn, and practicing his delivery with MLB pitching coaches. I'm pretty sure the Ravens are seeing to it that he's getting swedish massages nightly from Angelina Jolie's strong and capable hands, Emeril Lagasse spoon feeds him his high protein diet, and every time he needs to drop a brown biscuit, Art Modell rises from the dead to wipe his ass for him.
This is not your Daddy's Ravens. Let me ask you...if you planned on grinding out the running game every week....would you have Willis McGahee on the trade block? I mean...wouldn't you at least keep him around even if you were going to move him on the depth chart?
You wouldn't. And neither would they. They are going to throw. And they will run. And they will look like the Harlem Globetrotters doing it in the AFC North. So get confident with Rice. Put McLain back on the depth chart, as the new FB McLaughlin looks good enough to handle full time front blocker duty. McLain will handle the goal line. And you want some deep RB sleepers? Try Jalen Parmele, who's been a stand out so far on special teams, and has lead the Ravens in carries over the preseason. (You read that correctly....he's gotten more carries than Ray Rice.) And don't count out Curtis Steele at RB. This shifty rookie may be taking some carries between the tackles for the blackbirds, and will likely take over Rice's roll if there is an injury.
As far as the passing game, Flacco is a solid choice for a breakout season. I still wouldn't rank him any higher than 9....but he may be the backup that ends up winning your league. When Anquoin Boldin is healthy, he'll have some great games. He's going very low right now. Late #2, early #3 WR. He's better than that. How Brandon Marshall can go in the second round, and Boldin continually falls to the fourth I will never understand.
And that TE will be a fantastic steal with your last pick of the draft. No...not Todd Heap. That POS is DOA. I'm talking about rookie TE Dennis Pitta. This kid's been targeted four times the amount Heap has, and has hauled in five times the amount of catches. He could easily turn in to a bankable redzone threat with McGehee out of the picture.
Of course.....like all "out of nowhere" teams, there's there are a couple of WR's that's not getting drafted at all, that you need to pick up late. Wait...who just said Mark Clayton? I swear if I hear anyone say Mark Clayton I will go to the trunk of my car, grab the driver that my ex-wife gave me out of my golf bag, and bash your fucking skull in with it. I've been dying to break that thing anyway. No fuck-tard....Donte Stallworth, who will be the official HR threat for the team, and has shown at points in his career he can absolutely excel in that position....and Demetrius Williams. At some point, Boldin will get hurt. Hell....Mason is already hurt. Demetrius Williams will get the call, and when he does, this 6' 200 lb. slot receiver may never hit the bench again. He's done decent with the opportunities he's had so far, and now that the rest of his team is competent, I expect him to take it to the next step. (Meaning solid 3rd WR, at minimum.)
Oakland Raiders: Crappy Melissa-Joan Hart movie that I'm not going to waste my time looking the name up because you won't recognize it anyway.
So in this movie, Melissa-Joan Hart has to make-over some guy up to take to the prom, and he ends up getting a lead roll on Entourage. No...you don't want to do him...but he's still pretty cool.
That sums up your Oakland Raiders. I know...they suck. And they still may suck. Jason Campbell is not Peyton Manning.
But as you've read countless times....he's not Jamarcus "Most Kickers Can Put Up Higher QB Ratings Than Me" Russel either. So instead of putting 9-10 guys in the box, most teams may actually only put 7 or 8 there. That's a step up. The offensive line is moving to more of a power-man blocking scheme as opposed to the zone blocking scheme they could not execute, and gets bolstered by rookies Smith and Vallejo. A pluthera of defensive additions will give the offense more minutes on the field. So who benefits the most? Well...you. If you draft some Raiders.
Jason Campbell may have his best season yet. No...he will not take you to a fantasy championship. He's still a backup. But he may be a damn good backup.
With Hugh Jackson at the helm, the running game is sure to get a boost. All 245 pounds of Michael Bush should see plenty of carries this season. If the preseason is any indication, he should be getting plenty of passes thrown his way as well. And if he's not being checked down to....Zach Miller will be.
Note that I didn't mention Darren McFadden. That is because he sucks. And his sore hammy will make him suckier. Move Bush up. Don't draft McFadden.
Of course all this will be used to set up the big play. And who will be the recipient of that big play? Darrius Heyward-Bey? Johnny-Lee Higgins? Chaz Schillins? Nope. They will contribute, but the guy you want to target late is Louis Murphy. I think the reason people disregard him is because of his ordinary sounding name. But that just makes him less likely to be a serial killer, not less likely to catch passes. He's been the most successful deep threat for Oakland to date, and I like him to carry that into a new role that should supply you with 1100 yards, and 9 TD's this season.
By the way....if you're looking for a sleeper defense....look no further. This is an entirely revamped front 7, complete with pash rushing DE's, and new and improved linebacker play. The Pass D was already good, but now that they can rush occasionally and stop the run, I'm looking at them to be a top 10 D this year.
Lastly, I would like to leave you with the Chicago Bears. But I'm not going to do a full review, because you can't turn on your computer without hearing about Mike Martz's and Mike Tice's influence. Look...Aramashoua will be very good in the slot. Knox will get a bunch of deep balls and nothing else. Cutler is the most talented QB Martz ever worked with. Matt Forte wil get about 65% of the carries, and will be closer to 3.9 yards a game than 3.5, and add in a few receptions every game. Devon Hester is not a #1, and Greg Olson will disappear. But as of right now, all of these guys are being drafted right where they should be, and I don't see alot of surprises, so I'll leave them alone.
**************LATE AMENDMENT***************
Wow....completely forgot about KC. I'll just say this....their draft and Romeo Crennel should upgrade their defense, so the offense should get more minutes on the field. Not too much has changed on their O-Line...but like Tampa Bay, it's a very young line that should have a couple guys ready to have "break out" seasons. Charlie Weiss takes over the offense, which means run, run, run, deep pass, run, run, deep pass.
I can't believe that Jamaal Charles went from automatic first rounder to mid-late third rounder because of Thomas Jones Presence. Starter Shmarter. He's the" #1" back in that offense like "Phantom Mentace" was the first Star Wars. It's slower, cornier, more predictable than "A New Hope"....and let's face it....it's really not the first Star Wars. Will Thomas Jones take some goal line carries away? Sure. Will he get the ball four the first 4 carries? Probably. But that said, will his carries be limited to around 8-12 times a game on average? You betcha. Will KC run the ball 30 times a game giving Charles between 15-20 carries? Absolutely. Count on him for a top 12 finish in your RB scoring....which should make him a low #1 back on the draft board. Getting him as a mid #2 is a discount.
On the passing end.....I really expect both Bowe and Cassel to rebound. I don't see #1 status for Cassel, but I do see 3700 yards and 25 TD's while drastically cutting down on the INT's. (14-17.) Essentially he's 2009 Jay Cutler with less INT's. That's a solid #2 QB with a pretty easy schedule, making him a great compliment to your #1. He's undrafted in most leagues, which gives you a great reason to postpone the pick of a #2 QB. Bowe however is being drafted right around where he belongs. Third, 4th round as a #2 receiver. I like him better than several of the guys he's being drafted behind (Steve Smith, OchoCinco, Hakeem Nicks) but I'm not ready to call him a sure fire #1 yet because I believe he'll be inconsistent. If KC can run the ball, they will.
As far as deep sleepers go, I'm not seeing any. I really like Maoki at TE, and think he'll be a time share (with Leonard Pope) pass catching threat much like Chris Cooley this year. He'll be a very usable #2 TE, that is great for covering your bye-weeks and Vernon Davis injuries. (It WILL happen.) That said, he's someone to watch very carefully....not draft. Same for McCluster......he'll be a nightmare for some defenses, but he won't have weekly use.
Now you're wondering....if these teams are ready to be named prom queen...who are the ones that were SUPPOSED to be prom queen, only to come in second and have to storm out after this major blow to their popularity?
Answers coming soon kids. Very soon.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Carousel Drafting: Why You Need To Plan a Committee for Each Position
Many of you are still doing old-school snake drafts to fill your fantasy football rosters. And if you are involved in an online snake draft in 2010, there are two certainties:
1) You’re league is full of small minded, unimaginative dicks that can’t handle the “loose constraint” of an auction draft. Most of you probably haven’t tried asparagus since you were 5, several of you proposed to your wife by dropping an engagement ring in her champagne glass, and your cooking “specialty” is chicken parmesan because when you were 17 you figured out that dipping things in eggs will make breadcrumbs stick to it. Your dates are no longer impressed by this, and consequently you haven’t gotten laid since Match.com allowed people to complain about you and have your membership suspended.
2) Round 5 is going to suck like Pam Anderson on a speed-boat. Wait…hold on…..I can do better: it will suck like a Kardashian in a post-game NFL locker room. Wait….no….it will suck like a 22 year old Sara Silverman auditioning for sorority girl #3. Hmmm….I’ll get back to this.
Why am I so certain round 5 will suck? Because there’s not that many anchors out there to field your six most important spots. You have four rounds where you can pick players with confidence. After those rounds you’re essentially at the Bunny Ranch after plunking down your $300……your options are too old, too young, or just plain ugly, you don’t have the stones to ask for a refund, and you’re wondering why you thought this was a good idea in the first place.
What you fail to realize, is that while it seems like this pick is crucial…..you have already messed up. Somewhere in the first four rounds, you made a pick that will go on IR by week 3, or will be replaced by someone younger/faster, or will just not have the opportunity you thought they would to put up big numbers because the NFC Central and AFC West is tougher than you thought (I’m looking at you Greg Jennings) or they started dating one of the aforementioned Kardashians.
However, all is not lost, because you have a specific, well though through draft plan. With the remaining rounds, you are going to properly position yourself to win. This starts with the realization that if you play with more than 10 owners, there is no such thing as the week in week out players. There was a time when the West Coast offense was “inventive”, running backs “got the rock” 25-30 times a week, Gilbert Godfrey was “funny” and Candace Bergen was “attractive.” However, all of that is no longer a reality. NFL Coaches no longer construct game plans that revolve around the same RB or WR carrying their team week in and week out, and neither should you. You have wisely thrown the idea of having a static weekly lineup out the window.
You have planned a carousel for every single position!
Every roster spot should be considered a flex position, and in order to address this reality, you have purposeful targets for rounds 6-15 that allow you to draft fearlessly, with a sense of determination and intensity that can only be found in Marines storming beaches, or my ex mother in law approaching a cheesecake. (I know…cheap and easy…but so, so true.)
I want to be clear on this; THIS IS NOT ABOUT SLEEPERS. Do these players you are targeting have upside? Well sure. If you’ve been doing any research you’ve now stumbled upon reasons to love about 20 guys at each position that have enough talent to “break out” and provide more value than the other guys drafted in the same round. You’ve also stumbled on reasons to believe they will continue in mediocrity. That’s the essence of a sleeper. But I’m taking it a step beyond that. More important than their upside is that they will be deployed by their teams in a very specific manner and because of this they have a very specific opportunity in a very specific week.
Here’s what I mean by this: Santana Moss has an Average Draft Position of 82, or basically he’s taken between rounds 6-7 depending on how many owners are in your league. Over the course of the season, he will probably put up good enough numbers to justify being a low-end #2/high-end #3 WR, thereby being a solid pick at that spot. He’s been that type of player for years. His new quarterback and coach may help his case this year giving him some sleeper appeal, but there’s some uncertainty there with his links to HGH, and the potential emergence of a host of younger WR’s. Hopefully you’ve made some very good decisions so far in the draft, and he is the weakest player in your starting lineup.
The point is that Santana Moss is a very solid pick, but he is not a “set it and forget it” player. The key to the carousel is recognizing he is the weakest position in your lineup, and then taking steps to back him up “appropriately.” Backing him up “appropriately” does not mean filling up on more “sleepers” and hoping that one of them turns into a lineup regular. Because…say it with me now….THERE ARE NO LINEUP REGULARS. What “appropriately” means is noting that Moss is cemented into the Z spot of a Mike Shannahan offensive scheme. This means he will be running plenty of outside post routes, and hitch-and-go’s. He has a quarterback that can get him the ball (when healthy) and will get open against a man-zone, or 3-4 man defense. This can equate to some great games for a quick, fast, but undersized WR. Think DeSean Jackson, with less speed, youth, and talent. Or more accurately…..think Rod Smith circa 2001. Not the one with Elway, the one with Brian Griese. A bunch of really good games, with some real bad performances mixed in. In order to back him up “appropriately”, you need to recognize the matchups where he’s likely to struggle (Philly, Green Bay) and find players that due to their upside and circumstances, are highly likely to have explosions in the weeks that Moss will suck like a cosmetic surgeon before a “Facts of Life” reunion show. SHAZAM! NAILED IT! TAKE THAT TUTTI!
So start thinking carousel for EVERY position. Take a look at your tiers. Figure out where the most depth is, and decide what positions will occupy your first four picks. Then, based on the theory that each of your lineup spots will be in flux week in and week out, start forming a draft plan that is detailed enough to include all positions, while prioritizing your weakest lineup spot. You don’t have the time to do all that? Then pray I get to my next article before your draft.
1) You’re league is full of small minded, unimaginative dicks that can’t handle the “loose constraint” of an auction draft. Most of you probably haven’t tried asparagus since you were 5, several of you proposed to your wife by dropping an engagement ring in her champagne glass, and your cooking “specialty” is chicken parmesan because when you were 17 you figured out that dipping things in eggs will make breadcrumbs stick to it. Your dates are no longer impressed by this, and consequently you haven’t gotten laid since Match.com allowed people to complain about you and have your membership suspended.
2) Round 5 is going to suck like Pam Anderson on a speed-boat. Wait…hold on…..I can do better: it will suck like a Kardashian in a post-game NFL locker room. Wait….no….it will suck like a 22 year old Sara Silverman auditioning for sorority girl #3. Hmmm….I’ll get back to this.
Why am I so certain round 5 will suck? Because there’s not that many anchors out there to field your six most important spots. You have four rounds where you can pick players with confidence. After those rounds you’re essentially at the Bunny Ranch after plunking down your $300……your options are too old, too young, or just plain ugly, you don’t have the stones to ask for a refund, and you’re wondering why you thought this was a good idea in the first place.
What you fail to realize, is that while it seems like this pick is crucial…..you have already messed up. Somewhere in the first four rounds, you made a pick that will go on IR by week 3, or will be replaced by someone younger/faster, or will just not have the opportunity you thought they would to put up big numbers because the NFC Central and AFC West is tougher than you thought (I’m looking at you Greg Jennings) or they started dating one of the aforementioned Kardashians.
However, all is not lost, because you have a specific, well though through draft plan. With the remaining rounds, you are going to properly position yourself to win. This starts with the realization that if you play with more than 10 owners, there is no such thing as the week in week out players. There was a time when the West Coast offense was “inventive”, running backs “got the rock” 25-30 times a week, Gilbert Godfrey was “funny” and Candace Bergen was “attractive.” However, all of that is no longer a reality. NFL Coaches no longer construct game plans that revolve around the same RB or WR carrying their team week in and week out, and neither should you. You have wisely thrown the idea of having a static weekly lineup out the window.
You have planned a carousel for every single position!
Every roster spot should be considered a flex position, and in order to address this reality, you have purposeful targets for rounds 6-15 that allow you to draft fearlessly, with a sense of determination and intensity that can only be found in Marines storming beaches, or my ex mother in law approaching a cheesecake. (I know…cheap and easy…but so, so true.)
I want to be clear on this; THIS IS NOT ABOUT SLEEPERS. Do these players you are targeting have upside? Well sure. If you’ve been doing any research you’ve now stumbled upon reasons to love about 20 guys at each position that have enough talent to “break out” and provide more value than the other guys drafted in the same round. You’ve also stumbled on reasons to believe they will continue in mediocrity. That’s the essence of a sleeper. But I’m taking it a step beyond that. More important than their upside is that they will be deployed by their teams in a very specific manner and because of this they have a very specific opportunity in a very specific week.
Here’s what I mean by this: Santana Moss has an Average Draft Position of 82, or basically he’s taken between rounds 6-7 depending on how many owners are in your league. Over the course of the season, he will probably put up good enough numbers to justify being a low-end #2/high-end #3 WR, thereby being a solid pick at that spot. He’s been that type of player for years. His new quarterback and coach may help his case this year giving him some sleeper appeal, but there’s some uncertainty there with his links to HGH, and the potential emergence of a host of younger WR’s. Hopefully you’ve made some very good decisions so far in the draft, and he is the weakest player in your starting lineup.
The point is that Santana Moss is a very solid pick, but he is not a “set it and forget it” player. The key to the carousel is recognizing he is the weakest position in your lineup, and then taking steps to back him up “appropriately.” Backing him up “appropriately” does not mean filling up on more “sleepers” and hoping that one of them turns into a lineup regular. Because…say it with me now….THERE ARE NO LINEUP REGULARS. What “appropriately” means is noting that Moss is cemented into the Z spot of a Mike Shannahan offensive scheme. This means he will be running plenty of outside post routes, and hitch-and-go’s. He has a quarterback that can get him the ball (when healthy) and will get open against a man-zone, or 3-4 man defense. This can equate to some great games for a quick, fast, but undersized WR. Think DeSean Jackson, with less speed, youth, and talent. Or more accurately…..think Rod Smith circa 2001. Not the one with Elway, the one with Brian Griese. A bunch of really good games, with some real bad performances mixed in. In order to back him up “appropriately”, you need to recognize the matchups where he’s likely to struggle (Philly, Green Bay) and find players that due to their upside and circumstances, are highly likely to have explosions in the weeks that Moss will suck like a cosmetic surgeon before a “Facts of Life” reunion show. SHAZAM! NAILED IT! TAKE THAT TUTTI!
So start thinking carousel for EVERY position. Take a look at your tiers. Figure out where the most depth is, and decide what positions will occupy your first four picks. Then, based on the theory that each of your lineup spots will be in flux week in and week out, start forming a draft plan that is detailed enough to include all positions, while prioritizing your weakest lineup spot. You don’t have the time to do all that? Then pray I get to my next article before your draft.
Friday, August 13, 2010
2010 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
If you read my intro blog, I’m assuming you’ve had enough of me writing about you being a sad, sad example of a man. That’s not why you’re reading this. You’re reading this blog because you want some fantasy football advice.
It’s time to talk draft strategy.
If you’ve been following the NFL, you’ve realized that all the rules you are used to drafting by are out the window. If you think you are a genius because you finally realized that you don’t need to draft 2 RB’s in the first two rounds (which you should have realized three years ago) then good for you. But you’re not exactly ahead of the curve. My 11 year old niece knows that, and while you may have the mentality of someone that worships Justin Bieber and is learning how to use a maxi-pad for the first time, we’re looking to break those habits. So let’s get to some real draft strategy. Read my words here, absorb them, and THEN go take a 40 minute dump while reading about the 40th-45th ranked WR’s. You will have a much better idea of what you should be looking for during that time. No….not the Jergen’s….the proper fantasy stats. You can make your cock scream “GELATO” once the draft is over.
Rule #1: F HANDCUFFING YOUR RUNNING BACKS.
Look, if you have a deep 25 man roster because your commish loves to hoard potential breakout candidates (ummm….guilty) then by all means, use your 23rd pick on Darren Sproles. That said, I still think that’s a rookie move if it’s ONLY to back up Ryan Mathews. If you have questions about Mathews’s health, then move him down your draft list. Or, better yet….skip Mathews and ONLY draft Darren Sproles in round 20.
I’m not writing this to advise you not to draft Mathews. I love him this year. My point is, if you’re handcuffing someone, it’s normally to protect a first round pick. It’s a nice, safe strategy. F that. You’re better off protecting your lineup by drafting a potential breakout candidate and hoping they break out. You think anyone drafted Miles Austin last year as a hand-cuff? Was Rahard Mendenhall only drafted by guys that grabbed Willy Parker? Was Laurence “I-think-Bellicheck-hates-me-because-my-parents-didn’t-use-a-“W”-in-my-first-name” Maroney taken to “secure” their flex-spot if Sammy “everyone-hates-me-because-I-take-Maroney’s-carries” Morris went down? No. They were taken as potential breakout candidates. They were taken earlier than hand-cuffs should be taken, because RBBC’s have ramped up the value of the “backup.” You want to maximize your draft spot potential, not waste it on a guy that you’ll only play in a very specific situation. You’ll cut them anyway, and you’ve just wasted that pick. And if you’ve grabbed someone that’s injury prone relying on their backups stats to get you through the tough times, you’ve lost. The best strategy is to realize Marion Barber hurts himself a lot, avoid him in the first five rounds, and then draft Tashard Choice in the 17th. This brings me to my next point;
Rule #2: NO MATTER WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS, AVOID INJURY RISKS IN THE FIRST FIVE ROUNDS.
I know what you’re saying…….no shit. But admit it….you’re considering someone that’s an injury risk early in the draft. Look….someone drafted Brian Westbrook last year. Someone thought Ronnie Brown may go two consecutive seasons without major injury. And someone lost their fantasy leagues. However….someone also drafted Stephen Jackson and his 1400 rushing yards in 15 games. And there lies the problem. That’s why I’m writing this. There’s always that potential…..and if this is the season he stays healthy, do you really want to miss out?
Yes. Yes you do. Miss out. Don’t go to the party on Labor Day Weekend because you can’t afford a cab, and then sulk as you see facebook pictures of the awesome time you missed. Your best case scenario if you went another drunken-but-fun night out in a string of many over your life. Your worst case is you got VD from that fat chick you nailed in the bathroom, and then got a DWI on the way home. The risk does not justify the reward here. If you can’t stand the thought of missing out on a big pick, find someone even less fortunate than you, and laugh at them. Or cry about it to your therapist and blame it on the fact you heard your mother moaning upstairs when she had pity-sex with your one legged neighbor, so now you always root for the injured to make it happen. But don’t be the one to do it. Don’t make that pick. Do you know who you would have “settled” with if you passed on the injury plagued of your league in the first few rounds? Someone like Randy Moss, Peyton Manning, or one of the other guys that fell as you gambled on the high potential injury risks. You would have been just fine. At least you didn’t walk away with the STD/DWI combo known as Brian-Westbrook-2009.
Now I understand that if you avoid EVERY guy that’s had an injury, you’d be passing on the Andre Johnson’s, Tom Brady’s, and Matt Schaub’s of the draft. Am I really suggesting you pass these guys over?
Yyyyyuuuuup. Move on down your draft list. These kinds of gambles have a time and a place, but it’s not here. Yes……I know Schaub absolutely MADE some fantasy teams last year. But there’s a big difference between Schaub and Westbrook….and that leads me to my next rule;
Rule #3; START MAKING GAMBLES IN ROUND 6, AND KEEP ROLLIN’ THEM DICE.
When did you draft Schaub last year? Was it round 3? No? Really!?!?! Are you some kind of clairvoyant? Ohhh…..you’re not…you’re just one of a million guys that had the guts to start rolling the dice before his entire lineup was filled out. Now that makes sense.
Look, I had Schaub in almost every league last year. I believed in him, I saw the potential, and I ignored the injury risk. The big difference is I did it in round 8 instead of round 3. If you love a guy….I mean really think he’s a difference maker…than by all means, gamble early and gamble hard. JUST AS LONG AS IT’S AFTER ROUND 5. Admittedly, in almost every snake draft I used rounds 8 and 9 to take Cutler and Schaub, and then waited a few rounds to grab Orton. If I took one gamble….Cutler….I would have been screwed. But I didn’t. I set myself up with 5 solid players, and then grabbed all the potential I could. These rounds included guys like Ray Rice, the aforementioned Mendenhall, and Cedric Benson over other 8th round favorites like….Pittsburgh Defense, Ryan Longwell, and Donald Driver. I recommend you do the same. And while we’re talking about the first five rounds…..
Rule #4; DO NOT TAKE MORE THAN ONE RUNNING BACK IN THE FIRST THREE ROUNDS.
Running back is the deeper than your wife’s vagina was after she got a back stage pass to the Wu Tang Clan concert, and nobody is taking 3 in the first three rounds any more. Do them one better…..don’t take two. Now…..I’m not saying that WR, QB, and TE don’t have depth….they do. But you have to know how to use it. And I’m not saying you don’t need a top RB in the first three rounds. You do. I guess what I’m saying is….
RULE #5: THIS YEAR….MORE THAN EVER…YOU NEED TO BALANCE MAJOR POSITIONS.
As a disclaimer, I admit that I’ve always been a huge fan of the position carousel. Find the position with the most “sleeper” depth, load up everywhere else, and then grab a bunch of high potential guys to fill out the deepest position talent wise and celebrate when one of them pan out.
But you can’t do that this year. Don’t get me wrong, you will have to carousel some spots……but you need an anchor all over the field to win. You can’t afford to draft a stud to fill your flex spot, because this year EVERY position has some kind of depth. That means EVERY fantasy player will pick a position to carousel. That means that YOU cannot afford to punt WR’s or QB in order to stack 3 RB’s in the first three rounds. If you do, you will be competing for potential “carousel” players with everyone else in rounds 5-11, and be pissed as hell when Malcolm Floyd gets taken one spot before you were going to draft him. Furthermore, your anger will intensify as you realize Ahmad Bradshaw and LeSean McCoy are available in round 5, but you already spent your second and third round picks on Pierre Thomas and Knowshon Moreno.
By my count….and I won’t get into rankings, just trust me……there’s about 17 position anchors that are worthy of building your team around. About 5 QB’s, 5 WR’s, and 7 RB’s. And to be honest with you….even some of those guys I don’t love. That’s not even enough for two rounds worth of picks.
Now here’s the good news….they won’t all go in the first two rounds. Why? Because your friends are morons. They will make sure they have 2 RB’s in the first three rounds. Yes….they made the bold move of grabbing a WR in round 2…..maybe round 1. Maybe they went QB round 1, and then followed with RB, RB. Don’t do that. Go out, and get an anchor RB, WR, and a QB. With your fourth pick, grab the position with the least depth remaining….likely WR. Then…..carousel you’re remaining open spot. Maybe you want to go RB, WR, WR, QB. Maybe WR, RB, WR, QB. Fine….whatever….just make sure you’re not completely punting a position to go RB, RB, WR, WR. You will not like what you find at QB, be one of the suckers that HAS to take Cutler in round 5, and then watch Favre, Kolb, and every other QB you had planned on being part of your carousel fly off the board. We will discuss the Carousel later in a different article….like I said, you will be forced to take them, but for all intensive purposes you need to make sure that your RB1, WR1 and QB are in very good hands before you start playing around with matchup players.
There. You have the basics. Digest them, and we’ll talk some more big boy talk later. Just remember to check in regularly, and don’t be afraid to leave some comments and questions below.
Why You Need To Bookmark This Blog
It’s Mid-August, which means there are four things that are bound to happen to you within the next week;
Okay……now you know what you're getting yourself into. You’ll get some actual advice soon. Until then, feel free to leave some comments and questions
1) You have to figure out what that lawn treatment is between “spring-seeding” and “winterizing”, purchase it, and tell your friends you can't watch their dog because you're dedicating a Saturday to spreading it on your lawn....even though it only takes like, an hour to do.
2) Although you could have been enjoying the rewards of the work it takes to complete all summer, you are finally getting off your fat ass and paint the deck. It’s been too hot to do it anyway….and it should be a nice fall. Right? Sure. Kinda. But you're still lazy.
3) You’re emailing your friends to find out what their labor day plans are, trying to decide who’s grill you will have a passive-aggressive death-match over controlling, (Jimbo…I think your baby needs a diaper change…I’ll take over for you) while avoiding the cleanup/expense that you’re wife doesn’t want to deal with by actually having the barbecue at your place. I mean it can’t be at your place…..you just put down that lawn treatment and there’s fresh paint on your deck.
4) You come home from the store with the wrong kind of cheese, “salted” instead of “unsalted” butter, you completely forgot the Hellman’s light Mayo, (“that’s not what the recipe called for! You’re sabotaging my P90X!”) and exacerbate the issue by unsuccessfully hiding three fantasy football magazines totaling $27 that you don't have in your budget on the bottom of the grocery bag. (“But honey…it’s not an expense if I win!”) My advice….pay for them separately so they’re not on the same receipt, and leave them in the car until there is a time where you can safely shuttle them from under your passenger seat directly to the bathroom.
There’s a lot of words there, and for those of you that are skipping them all and going straight to the predictions, I will pity you for missing my hilarious commentary, and underline my point in capitalized/bold/italicized/underlined words so you still pause long enough to hear me;
IT’S TIME TO START FANTASY FOOTBALL PREPARATION.
And I want you to know something about this season right now; I’m going to beat you.
How can I be so certain? Because I’m that guy. I’m that guy that always wins your leagues. You’ve tried to make rules to stop me, like moving to a FAAB system, and no waiver pick-ups except for Tuesday’s from 8pm-10pm. But you can’t. And you won’t. You have a major handicap that I don’t have to deal with. I'm not talking about the way your junk curves to the left. I'm talking about the fact that you lead a normal, responsibility driven life. However....I don't. I am that guy in your league with an easy/no job, no kids, and "things to do" list that consists of walking to the convenience store to get more SOLO cups for beer pong, and restock the Dorito shelf. Hell.....I HAVE a Dorito shelf! I have no lawn, no deck, and even though I never vacuum, straighten up, wash dishes, or do any other kind of woman’s work, my friends are over every weekend to play flip-cup and Madden even though it’s completely not appropriate for guys our age anymore. I’m that guy that has time to actually READ the fantasy magazines he buys, pour over injury reports and roster trends, and wakes up on Monday morning at 5:30am (even though I don’t have to) to make sure I get first grab on the waiver pick ups. I’m the guy that watches football in sports bars with a laptop in front of him, with my extremely bored and out-of-my-league-hot girlfriend in a pink Patriots cap that’s frustrated by the fact that even though she joined one of my four leagues this year, it hasn’t brought us closer together.
I’m that guy that has SERIOUS issues with prioritization of life matters, which like all great NFL coaches/GM’s, leads to divorce, ill-health, an inability to interact with anyone outside my sport, and most importantly to me….and now you…..championship teams.
Here is why my regular demonstrations of poor judgment in anything not fantasy related are important to you; I am imparting my well researched findings to the masses. I am giving you one stop shopping to help you win your league. I am stating my opinions with certainty. What I am giving you are waiver wire pickups that will help you plug your weakest position/injury/unprepared for bye-week. Basic catch and release guys that should only be on your roster for a total of seven days. I will also provide you with starters that you may really, really, really want to consider benching. Not just a down week, but guys that will produce next to nothing. Occasionally I will provide guys you want to sell high on, and guys that are about to see a value spike for trade purposes.
Here’s what I will not tell you; I will not tell you to bench Jarvis Best "if you have an acceptable alternative" even though he’s had 3 straight 100 yard weeks because he’s got a tough match-up against the Vikings. Conversely I won’t tell you that AP (and if you don’t know who I mean by AP, stop reading, go to CBS, and start reading up on the fantasy 101 bullshit they provide) because he’s got a great matchup against Detroit. Because if you're any kind of legit fantasy contender, your thoughts behind this kind of IQ over 70 insight should be "No shit." I have too much respect for you to give you that useless time wasting “advice.” I will also not make wishy-washy statements like “if you have a decent alternative, you may want to consider blah-fucking-blah.” If you have a guy that’s going to suck, you bench him and find someone better. I have no patience for your man crushes, gut-feelings, player loyalties, and “better to lose with your best players” mentality. Get some balls, and pull the trigger.
I will advise you to start your flake. Bench the waiver-wire wonder that you picked up in week 2 and has carried your team for six weeks. Make the trade even though you’re not “certain” you’re getting the better end of it. If you make a bad trade, make another one to fix it. Overall…….do what it takes to win, and then leave the consequences for others. Just make sure you do it with my advice. It's called a "calculated risk" for a reason. Except I will calculate. You will risk.
Essentially, I will be the equivalent father figure that is sick of hearing the slapping sound your pimply faced ass makes as you use up all the Jergen’s while you spend 40 minutes in the bathroom, and takes you to a proper, STD tested Vegas prostitute at the age of 14, simply stating that you should try to follow her hips, and your pre-negotiated safety word is “Gelato.” Get ready to leave your fantasy puberty behind……you’re about to become a man.
Lastly, in this long winded introduction I will state that I have a tendency to put “parenthesized” statements in the middle sentences. These are tough to read. I also misuse punctuation, use pauses(a.k.a. ….’s) and generally write like it sounds in my head. AND I don’t recycle. (I have no kids to deal with the mess I leave behind. F the earth.) I do not apologize. You’re reading this for the information, not the grammar. Get over yourself, and your feelings on professionalism. So please, no complaints when I don’t hyphenate words like “if you feel the need to correct my spelling, you are a f-tard” or unnecessarily over-hyphenate when I say things like “if-you-don’t-like-my-grammar-eat-poop.”
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